Tonight the football world turns its attention to downtown Detroit and the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the years of the Jim Harbaugh era we've grown accustomed to Michigan to having quite a few players drafted, but the next three days has the opportunity to be historic. Harbaugh himself was talking up the possibility of Michigan setting NFL Draft records in 2024 last summer and now with only a few hours to Draft Day, it remains plausible. Georgia's 2022 draft remains the record, with 15 players taken off the Bulldogs' national title winning roster. Can Michigan tie, or exceed 15? Today we'll go through each player, their chances of getting drafted, and what NFL Draft scouts are saying about the heroes from Team 144: 

Certain to be drafted (7)

JJ McCarthy

Consensus Big Board ranking: 23 

Likely Draft Day: Thursday  

What scouts are saying: In all likelihood, the first Wolverine off the board will be the QB, JJ McCarthy. Where exactly he goes is up in the air, as it could be as high as #2 (theoretically) and could be somewhere in the teens. The consensus of scouts seems to be more bearish on McCarthy when it comes to actually ranking him, as the consensus big board puts him 23rd, but the sense is that because QB is a premium position, JJ will go higher than that in the actual draft. 

Scouts seem to like McCarthy's athleticism, intangibles/leadership, and arm talent (velocity and accuracy). His winning ways in both high school and college, in addition to his raw tools and mobility as a passer are certainly tantalizing. However, McCarthy's reads and decision-making are seen as areas for uncertainty. The low volume of throws that JJ has made over his Michigan career relative to some of the other top quarterbacks are another example of that uncertainty, a bit more of a mystery component than other QBs posses. Some suggest that it may be best for JJ to sit a year behind an experienced QB, while he continues to develop as a QB reading through his progressions. We shall see whether whichever team inevitably drafts McCarthy in the first round has that plan in mind. 

Kris Jenkins

Consensus Big Board ranking: 49

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Jenkins has been on NFL Draft radars for several years now and he seems likely to follow Mazi Smith's path into the league. Smith was drafted 26th in last year's draft, a bit higher than anticipated, but Jenkins' profile and projected ranking is in a similar ballpark. Good, and among the best DTs in the class, but perhaps not an elite stud a la Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton. Jenkins generally falls in that second tier of tackles after Murphy and Newton, alongside Ohio State's Michael Hall Jr. and Florida State's (formerly WMU's) Braden Fiske.  

Jenkins' profile is a bit of an unsexy one to a lot of scouts, but with some safe projection. Like most Michigan players, he's lauded for his work ethic and intangibles, the sort of guy NFL teams want to draft. His run defense generally gets favorable reviews from scouts and he graded out very well athletically at the NFL combine. There's also more safety in Kris Jenkins' NFL pedigree through his father, even though the two are built rather differently. Jenkins' counting stat production and general pass rush is what grades out a bit more negatively to scouts, wondering if he has that explosive, home run upside. Still, for teams looking to beef up the D-Line with a safe run stopper who may still have upside to explore (remember Jenkins' body transformation at Michigan), Jenkins is a solid bet and I'd expect him to go in the 2nd round on Friday night. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: all the other guys]

[Patrick Barron]

Junior Colson

Consensus Big Board ranking: 51

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: There is a real possibility that Junior Colson is the first linebacker taken in the 2024 NFL Draft, as his three year starting career at Michigan and physical gifts have made him attractive to scouts. Colson's length, athleticism, and physicality as a tackler are among the traits most cited by scouts evaluating his profile. He moves well in space and has the ability to cover both linebackers and tight ends, which is a must for modern starting NFL linebackers. Colson's potential as an electric blitzer and physical tackler are clear from his tape and his track record of experience on multiple elite college defenses makes him a safer projection, like Jenkins, though Colson did grow dramatically over the course of his Michigan career (as we remember). 

On the downside, some scouts have hesitations about Colson's instincts and play recognition as a run defender, particularly against zone runs. Identifying the run play unfolding and putting himself in the right gaps still isn't completely to the satisfaction of scouts, though as we can attest, he improved significantly in his football IQ at Michigan. In the pass game, multiple scouts note wasted movements in his coverages as an area for improvement. Another knock on the resume is Colson's injury history, though scouts do applaud Colson's ability to play through those injuries. Still, the positives outweigh the negatives and given that Colson is only 21, you should expect him to go sometime on Friday night in either the 2nd or 3rd round. 

Mike Sainristil

Consensus Big Board ranking: 52

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Film gurus and general Football People are deeply in love with Mike Sainristil, having shown up on so many "underrated" lists of prospects that at this point it's fair to wonder if Sainristil is just properly rated. He's moved all the way up to the second round range of the consensus big board and it sure doesn't seem like he's in that "mid-round draft steal" range anymore. The Athletic put together an article with quotes from coaches on draft prospects this week and the quotes on Sainristil are pretty much all you need to know about what scouts are saying amid Sainristil's rise up the boards: 

DB Coach 2: “He is one of my favorites. The habits are just so good. I’m not leery of his size because I think he plays a lot bigger. I have no reservations about him. He’s so aggressive and plays the ball so well in the air. I think he uses his lack of size to an advantage because he’s super quick and he’s able to get around blocks and people can’t get their hands on him.”

Scout 1: “He’s one of the best football players on anybody’s board if he’s on their board. Some guys will think he’s too small. Some guys will take him too high. Really good zone nickel. Really good player. He’s versatile, but the size is a concern. I like big guys. If he adds to your culture, it makes sense.”

Yes, Sainristil is not a big guy. He's undersized in his height and length, which will create matchup opportunities against NFL receivers. Yes, he's pretty old. Maybe he's a bit too aggressive in the way he plays his position. But the tape speaks for itself, Sainristil's playmaking abilities in coverage, his crunching hits, sacks, it all stands out. Oh, and he's got the ultimate dawg in him. Sainristil is a football player and enough scouts have watched the tape to move him up into the Day 2 range, understanding that there are simply too many good things in Sainristil's game to leave him buried later in the draft. 

[Patrick Barron]

Roman Wilson

Consensus Big Board ranking: 53

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Next up in the second round range is Roman Wilson, who could be Michigan's highest drafted wide receiver since Braylon Edwards, if he goes early in the second round (Devin Funchess was picked 41st in 2015). With Roman Wilson, the name of the game (as we know) is speed and explosiveness. He ran a 4.39 forty and that speed makes him incredibly dangerous vertically and horizontally. Wilson's hands, catch radius, and route-running ability also seem to get decent marks from scouts and are what makes Wilson a consensus 2nd round pick. 

The downsides to Wilson's profile are pretty obvious for Michigan fans. He's not a big receiver for a player who lines up quite a bit on the outside, not a leapy big guy as he measures in at under 6 feet. Wilson's skinny frame and lack of thickness is going to limit his usage as a blocker and some scouts want to see him slow down and not rush his routes as much. But, with that in mind, Wilson's production as a senior and his devastating speed profile are going to get him drafted and likely on day #2 of the NFL Draft (though I suppose there's a longshot chance he could fall to Saturday, or rise to Thursday). 

Blake Corum

Consensus Big Board ranking: 77

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: If there are any Michigan players somehow more beloved than Mike Sainristil it would be Blake Corum, who will likely see his name called the same day as Sainristil. Corum is seen as one of the top running backs in the 2024 NFL Draft, which is a bit of a down year for the position after having two go in the first round last year (Gibbs and B. Robinson). Like last year, a Texas back is near the top of the board in Jonathan Brooks, as well as Trey Benson from Florida State, with Corum right in the mix alongside. 

From a scouting standpoint, we know what makes Corum great. His low-built, strong body, his cuts and vision, the agility, the short-yardage aptitude he's added to his game, and the clutch runs in big moments. Corum's work ethic, role as a team captain, and willingness to fight for every yard ranks him as another sort of player that everyone wants to have on their team and are why he's in the top 100 of the big board. Of course, he is very small for the position, which can limit his effectiveness as a pass blocker and when you factor in the injury history, there are some red flags for certain teams. It's also been noted that some scouts wish he had been thrown to more often/proven himself more as a route runner. Of course, that can be improved as an NFL player and it's highly likely a team will work with Corum on that, once they pick him somewhere between the 2nd and 4th rounds of the draft. 

[Bryan Fuller]

Zak Zinter

Consensus Big Board ranking: 112

Likely Draft Day: Saturday

What scouts are saying: The last player in this category is G Zak Zinter, whose severe injury against Ohio State has dropped him some. The consensus big board ranks Zinter as the #6 guard in the draft and his excellence at Michigan is still carrying a lot of sway in spite of the injury. Scouts love Zinter's physicality, size, and run blocking prowess, in addition to the intelligence that allowed him to start as a true freshman in the (fake) COVID season. He didn't allow a sack nor take a penalty in the 2023 season until his injury, which speaks to his college production. Though he's played only right guard at Michigan, he has taken snaps at center in practice, which could convey additional versatility. 

The injury of course is a big issue. Where he gets drafted seems pretty up in the air and will come down to what various teams think about how Zinter's medical files look. The broken tibia and fibula in his left leg prevented Zinter from properly going through the pre-draft process, so you're a bit in the dark when it comes to his testing scores and have to bank on a full recovery. Broken bones should heal and return Zinter to his former self, but you never know and that's the great unknown here. Zinter pre-OSU was an elite college guard who could develop into a solid NFL starter. I wouldn't be shocked if a team believes in Zinter's profile irregardless of the injury and he goes surprisingly early on Day 2, but it could easily go the other way and he slides much later than he probably should.  

Highly likely to be drafted (5)

These are the players that are ranked outside the top 150 of the consensus big board, where it's theoretically possible that a catastrophic fall could happen and they don't get drafted. But I'm ending the cutoff at just beyond spot 200, meaning it would take a significant run of bad luck for them to not be drafted in the 257 selections this weekend. In all likelihood, the five players listed here will be drafted, but I'm making it its own category because 95% is not 100%.  

AJ Barner

Consensus Big Board ranking: 181

Likely Draft Day: Saturday

What scouts are saying: Though AJ Barner was not Michigan's most touted tight end this season, he rolls into draft weekend likely to see himself get selected on Saturday. As Michigan fans, we fondly recall AJ Barner's run blocking abilities, which is the headliner skill on his profile. Scouts do think he's a bit lean and could be stronger as a blocker, but there's no way to deny that Barner was an incredibly successful run blocker at Michigan, which is a good spot to start out in. It's more in the pass blocking dimension where there seem to be some question about Barner's abilities. 

The bigger question surrounding Barner as an NFL tight end, though, has less to do with blocking and everything to do with receiving. He had just 22 catches in 15 games last season and his career high was 28 in the last season at Indiana. It's a bit of a mystery, with enough intriguing tape out there to leave NFL teams with the belief that Barner has more potential as a receiver, even if no one believes he will be a true starting tight end in the NFL. The team that ends up drafting Barner will be the one who believes they can clean up his route-running and in turn, transform Barner into a solid #2 TE who specializes in the ground game and can occasionally chip in as a receiver. 

[Patrick Barron]

Trevor Keegan

Consensus Big Board ranking: 191

Likely Draft Day: Saturday

What scouts are saying: Michigan's other starting guard is Trevor Keegan, likely to go after Zinter in the draft. Like Zinter, Keegan's three year record as a starting guard and physical, hard-work oriented persona will likely get him drafted. He didn't commit a penalty in 2023 and is a highly competitive, aggressive blocker, which draws the interest of scouts. Keegan's strength and size buoy a profile that is mostly going to be anchored off his collegiate success, rather than any major extrapolation to the professional ranks. 

Scouts note that Keegan's athleticism and mobility is pretty average and his pad level can get pretty stiff from and upright from time to time. He did test well in his explosion at the combine/pro day, but his speed and agility are nothing special, so Keegan is probably a strict guard in the NFL (he also played nearly all his snaps at left guard in college). With the athleticism and the bend being what they are, scouts seem to be treating Keegan as an unsexy, low upside but safe guard for the late rounds of the draft, which I think jibes with what we saw from him at Michigan. As unsexy as he may be, Keegan is still likely to be drafted on Saturday because the record of production and performance against elite college competition can't be ignored. 

Cornelius Johnson

Consensus Big Board ranking: 194

Likely Draft Day: Saturday

What scouts are saying: The other starting wide receiver is Cornelius Johnson, not nearly as highly thought of as Roman Wilson but still a very good bet to be picked at some point on Saturday. The knocks on Johnson are pretty obvious, starting with a lack of production that is partially linked to Michigan's run-first offense. He had only one touchdown in 2023 (against Bowling Green), and didn't rack up many yards in the biggest games of Michigan's season as a 5th-year senior. Johnson is also on the older side, isn't a major yards after the catch threat, and doesn't profile as a major boost as a punt/kick returner (which can help late round receivers get picked). 

On the other hand, Johnson tested marvelously well at the combine, with high end speed and explosion scores, which is enticing coming from a 6'2.5" receiver. That size and catch radius, plus some really nice grabs on his tape (remember those sideline catches against OSU/Alabama?), show the potential is definitely there. Scouts like that Johnson runs good routes and can make contested catches and when you combine that with 45 starts in power conference football, alongside the 2022 OSU tape, there's a good chance that Johnson gets picked. He's likely got too many positive attributes, is too smart and too experienced to slide out. 

[Patrick Barron]

Jaylen Harrell

Consensus Big Board ranking: 195

Likely Draft Day: Saturday

What scouts are saying: The final two players in this category are the two first-team EDGE players, starting with Jaylen Harrell. Harrell's game is pretty familiar to MGoBlog readers, and scouts like the things he was featured in Michigan's defense to do. He has some pass rush ability, but is a strong run defender and was decent when dropping into coverage from time to time. Harrell has started for three seasons on Michigan's defense and has improved as a pass rusher every season, showing experience and willingness to improve. He's a bit of a Swiss Army Knife, someone who can do a lot of different things and has the potential to be a situational player in the NFL. 

Of course, the downside is that Harrell has never been a truly dynamite pass rusher and his small stature/lean body is going to encounter more problems in the NFL. Scouts believe it will be harder for him to win in the pass rush with his current set of moves against bigger and more physical tackles, and his abilities as an edge setter and run defender will also encounter problems. His fluidity and movements have also drawn some critiques and this rather unsexy, "can try everything but master of none" at the NFL level will likely restrict Harrell in the draft to the later rounds. 

Braiden McGregor 

Consensus Big Board ranking: 205

Likely Draft Day: Saturday

What scouts are saying: Only a couple notches below Harrell on the big board is his EDGE-mate McGregor. Despite them playing the same position and being ranked similarly on the board, their scouting draft profiles are pretty different. Where Harrell is seen as projectable and rather safe, McGregor has more upside to explore. He's got a frame that we always said looked Aidan Hutchinson-esque, with good height, long arms, and athletic tools. McGregor took time to come along at Michigan after his devastating high school knee injury and some believe he may have more developing to do at the NFL level. 

That intrigue will probably get drafted, but the risks and reality of his college career is what will confine him to the late rounds. The injury history itself is a big component of the profile, followed by the fact he was a good but not exceptional collegiate player. Scouts believe McGregor's pass rush could use some refining and he currently plays too tall, while he may need to continue to add strength to compete in the NFL. Also, unlike most of these Michigan players, McGregor was not a heavily used college player, with only 18 career starts, 15 of them last season in a year where he was in a platoon at his position. Again, more of a raw/upside pick than a high floor option but the upside is seen as high enough it'll probably get him picked. 

[Patrick Barron]

Possible (6)

Now we come to the bucket of players that will make or break whether Michigan can tie or set the record for most players picked in one NFL Draft. It is highly likely that all of the first 12 players I've listed in this article get drafted, though I suppose there's a scenario where one of the guys in the previous category slips to UDFA range. But, if we assume all of those 12 get selected, then it comes down to whether three or four of the players in this group get picked (three for the tie, four for the record). I'm not going to go into as much detail with this group, so we'll do it bullet point style: 

• Drake Nugent: Ranked 225th on the consensus big board, Nugent seems to be a tossup when it comes to getting drafted. What he's got going for him is his age, years of starting experience, and football IQ. He tested well from an agility standpoint but otherwise is pretty undersized for a center and not a marvelous athlete. Olu Oluwatimi had some similar concerns, but much better college play, and went 154th last year. My guess is that if Nugent is taken, it'll be 6th or 7th round. 
• Michael Barrett: Of everyone in this group, Barrett is the most likely to get taken to me. Why? He may be only 245th on the big board, putting him right on the cusp of UDFA range, but you do hear his name in NFL Draft circles as a possible late round steal. His name showed up in that Athletic article I quoted in the Sainristil write-up, with a coach saying "this is a really good player someone will get in the fifth or sixth round". Some will be spooked by his size and coverage matchups but the intangibles and track record on the field, plus his potential as a special teams ace and blitzer makes me believe at least one team to call his name in the last couple rounds. 
• Ladarius Henderson: Ranked right after Barrett on the consensus big board, Henderson is also right on the knife's edge of UDFA territory. Dane Brugler's Beast Draft Guide ranked Henderson one spot below Trevor Keegan on the guard rankings, giving him a 6th-7th round draft grade, which seems about where he'll go if he gets picked. Henderson brings with him 39 collegiate starts over five seasons and has ideal length, plus experience starting at both tackle and guard. Scouts still seem to think he's a bit raw and can develop more and his tape not being overwhelmingly great (even at Michigan) threatens a slide out, but I'll guess that Henderson goes in the late rounds due to positional versatility and experience. 
• Trente Jones: The last Michigan player to appear in the top 300 of the consensus big board, Trente finds himself at 293 (outside of draft range). Brugler gave him a fringe 7th round draft grade, so it feels like there's a chance for Trente to be Mr. Irrelevant of this draft. As we know, Jones doesn't have the starting experience of a Henderson and his lack of snaps in 2023 is a big reason why he may not hear his name called. However, strong play in the biggest games, potential as a developmental run blocker, and decent testing scores may get Trente drafted. 
• Karsen Barnhart: Though Barnhart was not ranked in the top 300 of the big board, he did appear right next to Jones on Dane Brugler's list of guards, also receiving a fringe 7th round draft grade. In other words, there's a chance he gets picked. Barnhart has the ability to play tackle or guard, is smart and seasoned at the collegiate level, and plays physical football. On the other hand, he was not a particularly exceptional college player, can get overpowered by bigger opponents, and also the tape of him against Chop Robinson exists. NFL teams are correctly viewing him as a guard but I would put it <50% that he is selected (but certainly not 0%!). 
• Josh Wallace: Probably the biggest long shot to be picked is Josh Wallace, who is also outside the top 300 of the consensus big board. His age, lack of long speed and general elite athleticism, smaller stature, and average play strength all work against him, but like so many players in this article, years of starting experience (five of them dating back to UMass!), college production, and intangibles help him out. Likely a UDFA, but all you need is one team to fall in love and take a 7th round flier on you. 

The guys whose draft position will decide it [Patrick Barron]

Soooooo? 

Let's go through it again. Seven 100% locks. Five 95%+ guys who are extremely likely to be picked. Let's just assume they all get picked and we're up to 12. I already put money on the table for Mike Barrett, that's 13. The path then for Michigan to tie or break Georgia's record of 15 comes down to the offensive linemen. How many teams in the 6th/7th rounds decide to take a swing on the likes of Nugent, Henderson, Jones, and Barnhart? I would be very surprised if none of the four get picked given Michigan's track record and honors as being exceptional OL units the past three seasons. So I guess that's me putting money down on 14 being taken. 

But how about 15 or 16? I think if I had to guess, I'd go with 15 being taken. Two OL + Barrett and the likely 12, with the other two OL and Wallace falling out. Michigan needs a slew of teams with late round picks to believe in the intangibles, the work ethic, the experience at a high level of football and the high football IQ to get the record. It seems a little bit of a stretch for Michigan to break it, but I'll say they tie it at 15. Though I suppose there's one person who now has immense power in an NFL organization that owns three picks in the 6th/7th rounds that could really help Michigan out here. Maybe even someone who predicted a record being set...