Hello Vogrich. One bit of good news from the weekend: the basketball team picked up a commitment from IL SG Matt Vogrich, the #100 recruit in the country to Scout and #131 to Rivals. If this offer sheet is anywhere near accurate, he's more impressive than his rankings:

Vogrich said he's picked up offers from Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Northwestern, Baylor, Minnesota, Bucknell, Saint Louis, William & Mary, Valparaiso, Colorado, Iowa and Providence. Notre Dame, Michigan, UCLA, Stanford and Virginia are also in the picture.

Vogrich claimed he was down to Michigan and Stanford just before he committed, but that course of events leads me to believe Stanford told him they didn't have room. UMHoops has plenty more; he's supposed to be a bomber who's a power-mushroom version of Stu Douglass.

Michigan has one slot left in the class of '09 and is looking for a forward. Two names for you: unranked Will Barrett, who's deciding between Michigan and the Ivy League, and Aussie C Angus Brandt, a sleeper sort who's an AAU teammate of Vogrich and sounds like the better option. BONUS: as an Australian he has no conception of which teams are any good.

Old guys. Alumni cheerleaders rock:

ITYSO. After the Auburn trip I mentioned that Tommy Tuberville was Lloyd Carr and he was trying to turn Tony Franklin into Mike DeBord, but I had no idea how right that was. The always-illuminating Smart Football:

Every coach I speak to says the same thing: I don't know what they are doing at Auburn, but it ain't the Airraid. So what's going on? I'm not an insider, but my best sense is that the other coaches on the staff (including Tuberville) never bought into the system - maybe because Franklin did a poor job selling it internally, or maybe he thought he didn't have to - and now their offense is simply a muddle, a grab-bag of pseudo-spread garbage. This seems to be general sentiment among the smart money in football.

Relevance to Michigan: low, I guess.

Hockey! I missed the announcement that the game against Waterloo was moved up an hour, so I only saw half of the Sunday game, but I did take in the entirety of the USNTDP game.

Approximate forward lines:

Summers-Rust-Palushaj
Hagelin-Caporusso-Turnbull
Miller-Czarnik-Naurato
Random Grab Bag (Lebler, Fardig, Ciraulo, Winnett, Wohlberg, Glendening)

Impressions:

• My main concern with this year's edition of Michigan hockey is the potential lack of a no-holds-barred superstar, something that hasn't happened in the ten years I've been following the team. Pacioretty would have been that guy if he had stayed; in his stead there doesn't seem to be that one guy you have to key on if you're an opponent.
• That said, if they can assemble a good third line this team will roll the lines and just depth-charge opponents into submission.
• One guy I'm keeping an eye on to see if he develops is Ben Winnett. He was a big scorer in junior and a fourth round draft pick, but had a meh freshman season with a 6-5-11. The initial returns were not good, with Winnett stuck on a non-scoring line and not doing much of note.
• If I had to bet I'd say the winners in the massive free-for-all to decide the bottom four forwards (I assume Miller and Czarnik are safely in) will be Winnett, Fardig, Naurato, and Wohlberg with Lebler and Glendening scratching out games here and there.
• Freshman defenseman Greg Pateryn got smoked on the Waterloo goal, allowing his man to drag the puck across his face and get to the net.
• To that point: I bet Pateryn gets the least the playing time this year amongst the seven blueliners. He looked far less composed than Burlon.
• Scooter was pretty rough against the USA team, coughing the puck up several times.
• None of the freshmen made much of an impression on me; a friend was impressed with Burlon and thought Glendening could be a find for a guy who's not getting much scholarship money.
• Bork!

This team is likely to be successful but it might be a team that wins a lot of games 3-1 instead of 5-3.

Etc.: Corn Nation has an excellent three-parter on the spread.

9/4/2008 – Michigan 20, Illinois 45 – 2-3, 1-1 Big Ten

Any attempt to list the full dossier of Michigan errors over the past few weeks would provoke a cascade of emotions from the reader starting with rage and ending with full-bore ennui. Along the way we'd touch grim sarcasm, depression, contempt, fatalism, resignation, dread, and a whole host of other things that in no way relate to happiness.

So let's skip it and just say there have been a lot.

It seemed like youthful nerves or inexperience in the first couple games. Against Notre Dame it seemed like the usual screwing over by Angry Michigan Ball-Oiling God. And, hey, we beat Wisconsin and the negative events therein were supplanted in our minds by the Thompson return and the unlikely Threet gallop and so on.

All of it could have been unfortunate randomness. The true abilities of Michigan's team would be unleashed as soon as they stopped turning the ball over every ten seconds or busting coverages that left, say, a guy running wide open downfield on fourth and ten. If they don't put themselves in a 21-0 hole against Notre Dame, if they just complete those bubble screens, if they don't suck on this play or that play &c &c &c.

As more evidence piled up it became harder and harder to justify the vague hope Michigan was a competent team stuck in Charlie Weis's body (it's like Innerspace except there's no machine to shrink you), but we endured. We are fans. Until such time as you declare EVERYTHING TO BE BROKEN because THIS IS THE WORST TEAM EVER and EVERYONE MUST BE FIRED NOW NOW NOW, people strive to find whatever hope they can. And also: how can kick returners just flat dropping the ball be a replicable event? Seriously. I want to know this.

But now it's pretty hard to come to any conclusion other than "they just suck." The last straw on my pet camel's back was Steven Threet dropping back to pass with Michigan down 45-20. Untouched, he cocked his arm to throw and fumbled backwards for the fifth time in approximately four games of play. This, like Ryan Mallett's mystifying inability to receive a snap, is now an event that will happen on a depressingly regular basis. There are similar events scheduled all over the field—especially in the secondary, where someone (Charles Stewart) has miraculously supplanted Stevie Brown as the whipping safety du jour.

We've passed the point where these things could be random chance. It's just a bad team. This revelation will probably be met with "duh" from everyone who's not a Michigan fan, what with skill positions that usually read junior, freshman, freshman, freshman, freshman, freshman and a coaching transition and, oh, I don't know, the nation's 110th best turnover margin. But, hey, we beat Wisconsin and for sports fans even lead balloons float when filled with hope.

My balloon is now filled with a sticky gray-green substance that smells like sewage and glows when the moon is gibbous. Saturday's event was tough to watch. While the long term outlook isn't affected much by the pratfalls to date, it's still no fun to watch 25-point beatings. Sadly, I just want to fast forward to 2010.

Eh, Bullets:

• I think Juice Williams may have the greatest ball fakes I've ever seen live. You know that thing where the cameraman follows someone who ends up not having the ball and freaks out when this becomes clear? I did that on like half of Illinois' runs. It was really annoying when I'd be watching the running back get tackled for no gain only for Williams to have the ball and run for a first down.
• Missing Hemingway and Stonum was a big deal, since it's obvious why Savoy can't get off the bench. Apparently the TV guys criticized the coaching on his long-bomb drop; I think the more plausible explanation is that a redshirt junior who hasn't seen any time is probably not very good.
• Holy Lord did Michigan get jacked on at least three different pass interference calls. Greg Mathews was obviously hit early on an unsuccessful third down conversion. Illinois got bailed out on third down by a PI call on a ball yards behind the receiver. Donovan Warren got shoved not once but twice on a downfield jump ball and drew no flag. The first two either ended Michigan or extended Illinois drives. The latter set up a third and two instead of a second and seventeen; the next play was the dagger Williams scramble.
• Michigan again used that goofy formation where Greg Mathews is 1) split out and 2) covered up by a receiver outside of him. They ran twice for minimal yardage. WTF?
• Despite Odoms' fumble he should definitely keep the return job. He consistently broke through the first wave of defenders and acquired Michigan excellent field position. The fumble just appeared to be a guy putting his helmet on the ball, which usually can't be helped.
• Perhaps the most disturbing event on the day was Illinois dominating the Michigan offensive line. The Illini had been shredded by all previous opponents. The offensive line is going to be an anchor around this team's neck for the remainder of the year.

As always, check out the Live Blog Chaos Mitigation Post if you're confused about what's going on or why your comments aren't appearing. We start at around 3.

J Leman's omnipresent spirit hovers over Memorial Stadium.
Via BSD and Illinois Loyalty

This preview relies heavily upon Drexel's Illinois scouting report, which you should read in its entirety.

Run Offense vs. Illinois

When the internet proclaimed J Leman linebacking God a couple years ago it was based more upon his sartorial choices than anything else, and when Leman went undrafted that seemed to be that. Just one American Hero with an American Flag Tie, but not that much of an impact on the actual field.

Uh, in a word: no.

This isn't all Leman's departure: OMG shirtless recruit D'Angelo McCray transferred to—hey, wow—Eastern Illinois this offseason and DE Sirod Williams was lost for the season with an ACL injury. Meanwhile, OMG shirtless recruit Martez Wilson is lapping up that good Zook coachin':

According to veteran Illini beat writer Mark Tupper, Wilson was "repeatedly out of position" in last Saturday's loss to Penn State.  …

Though he's as physically gifted as any player the school has ever had, Wilson still isn't playing the way Zook had hoped he would. It isn't a lack of effort. Or ability. Or mental preparation. …

"Potentially, as an athlete, he's as good as I've ever seen. But as a linebacker, he's still not there. He's middle of the road right now.

Against the real teams on their schedule (and, uh, Eastern Illinois), the Illini have been shredded in a way that indicates serious issues. Drexel:

PSU was able to blows them off the ball most of the game. They were a little better against Missouri, but nobody really stood out to me the way Wisconsin’s guys did. … I think they will probably blow up a few plays here and there, but they don’t seem like a group that’s going to control the line of scrimmage all day. They are better than ND, but I will be disappointed if we don’t run the ball consistently on Saturday.

Illinois is heavily into slants and stunts and Michigan should come ready with some counter action.

This should be closer to Notre Dame than Wisconsin, especially if Illinois goes with a cover-two look to back up this:

The linebacker moves might not be as apparent this week, because Illinois figures to play just two linebackers and more defensive backs in a "nickel" look against Michigan's multi-receiver spread offense.

Notre Dame spent its day against Michigan in a 4-2 nickel, too, and relied on an array of corner and safety blitzes to provide another guy in the box. Sometimes this worked out for a three- or four-yard loss; other times McGuffie just skated into the secondary.

As a bonus for Michigan's chances, n00b safety Donsay Hardeman has leapt into the starting lineup largely for lack of a better option. Illinois Loyalty suggsted Penn State attack the safeties:

We're all excited that Donsay Hardeman is finally going to get some playing time, but he has zero experience, and the rest of the crew has had some serious issues with being in the right place at the right time. That, and tackling.

There were many times against Notre Dame—playing the same 4-2 nickel with the same dodgy defensive line and okay-not-great linebackers—that the only thing standing between Michigan and a long touchdown was the outstanding play of David Bruton and Kyle McCarthy.

I know this is going to sound crazy after the game we all just lived through, but I think Michigan can take these guys. I mean, everyone else has. If Wilson's in the game, look for some misdirection, as he has a tendency to get wildly out of position.

Key Matchup: Everybody now! Molk, Moosman, and Rotating Right Guard against the Illinois defensive tackles. Michigan won this battle authoritatively against ND and lost it authoritatively against Wisconsin. Rodriguez was specific about this in the press conference: it was "embarrassing" that Michigan couldn't get to the second level. They've got to fix that; sounds like that's well within reach.

Pass Offense vs. Illinois

Illinois year to date:

This is not particularly inspiring, but Steven Threet is no Chase Daniel and may not even be Darryl Clark. Drexel says that Vontae Davis is a fine corner but "other than that, they don’t have anybody that is good in man coverage." We already mentioned the safeties as an issue in the run game, but here's the houdini bit: Illinois Loyalty was actually suggesting Penn State attack the safeties via the air. Drexel echoes:

I think we will be able to get an easy one down the sideline. The safeties are not quick to get to the sideline if there is a vertical threat down the seam. If we get a player in the flat to hold the corner, and a guy down the side line and down the seam, somebody will be open for a big play.

Michigan's been close several times this year, mostly to Greg Mathews, but hasn't taken advantage of the opportunities presented themselves either because Mathews is still a little gimpy or Threet's a little off or the general bloody-mindedness of the universe decided that the refs would call that quasi-catch against ND incomplete. They will have more opportunities this week.

BONUS possibility for aerial happiness: though Illinois is 31st in sacks, all but two came against the goofballs on the schedule. Those two sacks against Penn State and Missouri came on 65 attempts. This is not a good ratio.

Meanwhile, Steven Threet regressed badly after an outstanding game against Notre Dame. He was errant, hesitant, and sometimes threw directly at people in the wrong jersey.

Complicating matters will be absences at receiver. Greg Mathews will play but is still hobbled by an ankle issue. Junior Hemingway is out with mono, and Darryl Stonum is expected to miss the game for violating team rules. Carson Butler has apparently worn through Rodriguez's patience and we'll be seeing a lot of freshman Kevin Koger.

That says more of Toney Clemons and Zion Babb to go with Mathews, a heavy dose of Martavious Odoms—if they can get him to run the right routes—and possibly some additional screens, except Michigan sucks at screens.

Drexel says that Illinois' alignment should open up the bubble variety, though:

The way they align against trips and five wide will give Michigan an advantage for the bubble screens. To twins they will play the corner over #1 but will split the distance between the tackle and #2 with the outside linebacker. To the trips they will put a ban over #1 and #2 and a safety deep over #3. It is hard for the inside defender to make a play on the bubble screen in this alignment, and I expect to see Michigan try to exploit this.

Threet's accuracy on bubble screens has been horrible, though, and so has the blocking out there. Now we're down to a gimpy Mathews, a freshman tight end, and maybe Toney Clemons… I seriously hope this was a major focus in practice this week.

This will be erratic, especially with Michigan's #2 and #3 receivers out. Illinois will probably put Davis on Mathews all day and take their chances with the vaunted Threet-Zion Babb hookup. I'm hoping for zero interceptions, a 50% completion rate downfield, one big play, and for the love of God some accurate bubble screens.

Key Matchup: Martavious Odoms versus linebackers or nickel corners or whoever. You can see that Michigan really thinks Odoms can be an effective part of the downfield passing game but route issues and Threet's inconsistency have hampered their efforts to get him the ball. To have a big day in the passing game, Odoms has to be a factor. I suggest that one of the big plays we can go after is that wheel route we like.

Run Defense vs. Wisconsin

Last week I referenced the Notre Dame preview, noting that the rush defense's true ability level was pleasantly obscured by an avalanche of sacks and predicted Wisconsin to do "better than okay," pegging Fresno State's performance—allowing 154 yards on 39 carries—as a decent benchmark for the D.

The results, excluding four sacks for 20 yards:

That is indeed better than okay and a little short of Fresno State but the numbers are potentially distorted by one long run on third and short from John Clay. I continue to maintain that this rush defense isn't as good as the stats (#16 currently) suggest; they're not exactly bad, either.

It remains to be seen exactly how relevant Michigan's performance to date is against Illinois. Of Michigan's four opponents, two are (mostly) conventional I teams and a third, Utah, runs a spread in formation only, deploying two mondo power backs and largely eschewing quarterback runs. Juice Williams and Illinois are a different sort of offense entirely.

As to that offense, Drexel's scouting report on the Illini indicates we should have an advantage in the trenches:

Missouri consistently pushed these guys backwards and blew up their inside and outside zone plays. Penn State also pushed them around for the most part, but Illinois ran some counters and traps to punish them for getting up field. They are athletic enough to get down field and get a block. They also seem to have their timing figured out a little better than Michigan on their chip blocks in the zone scheme. …

The Badger O-Line looked to work to the second level and absolutely bury linebackers. The Illini seem to just try and get in the way of linebackers. It looked much easier to shed their blocks than the Wisconsin O-line.

An advantage in the trenches is nice but Illinois has attacked the edge frequently, and with uneven success:

Penn State's run defense isn't what it used to be with the defensive line attrition they've suffered and Sean Lee's ACL tear, but Michigan hasn't proven it's that much better year to date. I am especially leery about Michigan's oft-confused outside linebackers against the option and Juice Williams in space, though I do submit that Jonas Mouton is probably better prepared than most to track down Williams on the edge.

Key Matchup:

Pass Defense vs. Illinois

Everyone knows superfreak Arrelious Benn, who's the kind of receiver that can turn a Juice Williams into a multiple touchdown-throwin' guy, and against real defenses. Think Braylon Edwards paired with freshman Chad Henne. The rest of their receivers are just "okay" according to Drexel, and everyone else.

Juice Williams, meanwhile, is still pretty much Juice Williams. The Big Ten shuddered after his 451-yard, 5 touchdown performance against Missouri, but then he did this…

…and everything seemed okay. Benn is his one true love: he averaged 27.5 YPC against Penn State, netting 110 yards; Juice's other 20 attempts collected 73.

Michigan has had a fierce pass rush year to date, and spent large parts of the final drive against Wisconsin rushing three and getting to Evridge. Defensive ends Tim Jamison and Brandon Graham have been beasts except when blocked by six guys at a time, like against Notre Dame. Michigan is seventh nationally in sacks with 3.25 a game.

Williams' mobility might be a problem, but if three or four rushers are getting to him there should be enough guys in short zones to contain him adequately. The bigger issue will be when Williams breaks contain and Benn breaks downfield; that combination can turn a broken play into 30 yards faster than you can say "bip."

This is going to be a high variability area. The Illinois offense and Williams' running ability demand safety attention on a lot of different plays, potentially opening up Michigan to exploitation when one of the guys bites at the wrong time. Benn will run open deep at least a few times unless we get super lucky. It will then be up to Williams to hit this open Benn, which he has been inconsistent doing. Much will hinge on four or five moments when a Williams pass arcs through the air, seeking Benn deep.

Key Matchup: Stevie Brown and Trent/Warren bracketing Benn. If he's open we're in trouble; if he's covered we might still be in trouble. The over/under for big Benn plays in this game is 1.5; anything less and I think we're good.

Special Teams

Michigan has been totally erratic here. KC Lopata has been reliable, hitting four of five with a 52 yarder in the mix. Zoltan The Inconceivable has been great to the point that I plan on breaking down his epic spaceness in the near future, but a number for you: 41.63. That's Michigan's net punting, and that's #6 nationally.

Everything else has been a toxic disaster zone. Not only are Michigan returners fumbling the ball away at least twice every game, but even when they get the ball in their hands they are instantly swarmed by unblocked opponents: 111th in punt returns. 103rd in kick returns. Jesus hamburger in a biscuit hell.

Illinois, though, hasn't been much better. Their net punting is 88th; if the current averages hold up every time the teams exchange punts Michigan will be picking up nine yards. Their punt return game is 94th, their kick returns 72nd. Kicker Matt Eller's been okay, hitting 5 of 7 so far.

Key Matchup: I SWEAR TO GOD JUST KNEEL IT IN THE ENDZONE *#$&#$#$#.

Intangibles

garfield minus garfield 

Cheap Thrills

• Anyone fields a kick.
• Threet stars out like he did against Wisconsin.
• Our linebackers get confused and let players outside of them.

• Illinois' nickel gets gashed like ND's did.
• Odoms runs the right routes.
• The punting matchup is as lopsided as it appears. No, seriously, this is a huge silent advantage for Michigan.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 out of 10. (Baseline 5; –1 for You Beat ULL By Three!, +1 for We Beat Miami By Ten And Threw A Party, –1 for Good God They're Swiss Cheese Against The Run, +1 for Lingering Anti-Spread Paranoia).

Desperate need to win level: 7 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for This Is Winnable And We Need The Wins, +1 for 2-0 In The Big Ten And Maybe We're On To Something, +1 for Keep The Mojo On The Gogo, –1 for But Yeah We're 2-2 And Probably Headed Somewhere Uninspiring)

Loss will cause me to... cancel the hotel reservations in Detroit that I canceled at halftime of the Wisconsin game and remade immediately after.

Win will cause me to... woooooo Rose Bowl baby!

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Brace yourselves: I think I talked myself into it. Vegas has us a small favorite and that seemed preposterous but as I started looking at things this seems like the sort of team we can have success against, because first and foremost they have a sketchy defensive line, and second and secondmost they have a sketchy defensive line.

I think we'll see the return of the run game that was functional to excellent against ND, and that should give Threet some more time to settle down and hit a few passes. You don't give up the sort of yards Illinois has without having serious systemic issues that don't go away in a week. We aren't going to

Defensively, I don't fear long drives, as Michigan should be able to stuff third downs on the regular. There will probably be a couple sustained drives but it shouldn't be a regular occurrence. I do fear big plays: Benn running open past Brown or Warren, Williams juking Thompson and screaming into the secondary. I am prepared to live with three horrible events. More than that and we're in trouble.

Also I fear anyone returning a kick or punt.

But… I think we win. Somebody shoot me.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Brandon Minor gets at least half the carries and someone breaks off a long one.
• Mike Martin has a major impact as the 3-3-5 NT.
• Michigan, 27-23.

Maybe a return? The popular consensus on Brandon Graham's senior year has long been "will be spent in the NFL," and with five sacks in four games he seems to be on that trajectory. But is this hinting at a return?

"He [Jamison] knows a lot of different protections that I don't really know on both the pass and the run," Graham said. "He's able to plant a little bit more. I just try to go off my abilities to push people around and try to do it. But I'll learn a little bit more, and that's why next year's always good. I'm just trying to learn as much as I can right now to get on his level.

"I appreciate saying I played with Terrance, Jamison and Will. The whole D-line, it was just all love when I got here. It's still the same way."

Obviously that's inconclusive and many folks don't want to leave until someone tells them just how much asiago you can buy with a million dollars, etc etc etc. At the very least Graham is talking like he plans to return, which is a win from this perspective.

If Graham does come back, a defensive line of RVB-Martin-???-Graham looks at least passable, no? And with the only other departures of note—on the whole team, not the defense—being Morgan Trent, Johnny Thompson, and Charles Stewart, that should be a much better outfit, yes?

Ugly but obvious. GS has the Run Chart up and it checks in at an ugly –3 total with Molk's –3 being the least awesome individual score; Massey and Ortmann also pick up -2s.

What's the difference between a pitbull and a hockey mom? Pitbulls speak English. Uh… yeah, hockey is approaching. INCH preview-ifies the CCHA, dwelling long on the implementation of the shootout. This is going to come up time and again so let's just start the lectures now: shootouts go into the books as ties to the NCAA, do not affect the pairwise, and only impact CCHA standings. This will be a million times confusing, I know.

Elsewhere, Yost Built embarks on an epic season preview by considering the goalie situation:

I'm more optimistic than a lot of people are about Sauer this season. The way last season ended was no doubt a disappointment, but I have to believe he's more entrenched as the starter than he was heading into last year. Look at those numbers again. He was 30-4-3! He gave up less than 2 goals per game, despite Michigan regularly playing three rookie defensemen.

My prediction is that Sauer establishes himself the starter going into the tournament and I FREAK OUT the first ten minutes of every game.

Come on Motor City. Reed from Road Games 07 is, like Richard Shindell, currently a resident of Argentina. Unlike Richard Shindell, Reed has written an extensive treatise on Michigan's bowl chances this year that's worth reading up on for the snark…

A Big Ten team with a 6-6 record can not be selected over a team with a better record, even if the bowl in question is in Detroit and the team in question played Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State, and Florida Atlantic in their non-conference schedule.

We may find ourselves in a position where we're rooting for Penn State to get to the national title game so the Rose Bowl can dragoon some other questionably-deserving Big Ten team, freeing up a 6-6 slot for us. Woo?

Reed has us finishing 5.5-6.5—uh, with percentages—but I think that's pretty pessimistic given this:

Illinois 35% 2.35 - 2.65

Dude, man, we're favored by 2.5 tomorrow. I don't know why, exactly, but Vegas isn't stupid.

Conference bler. I agree with this so, so very much:

when you adjust for small and inconsistent sample sizes, blatantly unequal matchups (i.e. Big East champion West Virginia vs. SEC bottom dweller Mississippi State, for example), injuries, rebuilding years, wide variations of strength and scheduling within each conference -- anything that might fall under the category of "margin of error" -- ALL of the numbers indicate that, over any appreciable length of time, the major conferences are ... roughly the same. Which seems about right.

That's Docsat; there are numbers.

Etc.: MVictors has babyback ribs for you; Varsity Blue goes inside the Koger touchdown.

Duh. Duh duh duh. Duh duh duh. Duhhhhhhhhhhhh. Also: Having video issues and am posting them ASAP. Last one is the last play of the game, so I ain't done till that's got a link.