SEE YOU IN ST PAUL (Vince Coughlin)

Michigan Hockey Game #40: Michigan 5, Michigan State 2 Comment Count

David March 31st, 2024 at 11:03 PM

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information and HERE for current Pairwise Rankings.

What just happened (TL;DR): Michigan just bounced Michigan State in their first ever NCAA Tournament meeting, sealing the Wolverines THIRD STRAIGHT Frozen Four appearance. After an unlucky bounce in an evenly played first period, Ethan Edwards tied the game at one via an odd man rush in the second. Heading into the third period, all tied at one, Michigan re-upped their best third period of the season by beating Trey Augustine FOUR times in the final 14 minutes. Dylan Duke earned Most Outstanding Player of the Regional on the back of his game-winning and game-sealing goals to go with his earlier assist. Jake Barczewski was also absolutely nails once again. Oh, and Frank Nazar had the Assist of the Year. See below!

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

 

Total Attempts

Even Strength

Power Play

Close (within 1)

Even Strength %

Michigan State

68

56

12

46

58%

Michigan

56

41

15

35

42%

Forward Notes.

-Michigan and Michigan State played a very even game through two periods with Michigan probably getting more dangerous chances overall. Michigan would get some looks with their top six, but Trey Augustine was there pretty much every time. Finally, the Wolverines started finished their chances in the third period. This is where it felt like Michigan just had better scorers and finishers. While State has depth and attacks in waves, it was once again Michigan’s individual efforts that sent them to St. Paul.

-Dylan Duke had himself a weekend. After tallying twice against North Dakota, Dylan added a couple more goals on Sunday night. He gave Michigan the lead on a phenomenal individual play flying down the boards, swooping above the crease, and beating Augustine to the far post. He later added to it with a power play deflection that put the cherry on top of the sundae for the Wolverines. He’s really starting to have a flair for the dramatic getting some really clutch goals in the career in Maize and Blue.

-Speaking of flair, Frank Nazar lead a 2v1 rush into the Spartan end, pulled the puck back between his legs, and hit Gavin Brindley on the tape to double Michigan’s lead to 4-2 with 7:06 to go in the game. Words do not do this pass justice. Go find it on Twitter (@Nastyisland, I posted it). I’ve seen goals scored this way (hello Kent Johnson and Brendan Brisson), but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an assist like that. He also had a double dangle going through two Spartans, but his chance was fired wide of Augustine in the second period.

-Gavin Brindley finished Nazar’s ridiculous pass and assisted on Dylan Duke’s tip. Brindley has had his lines jumbled, played up top on the power play, and was given a phantom penalty early in the game. It was a weird weekend for him, I thought. Regardless, he forechecked well and wreaked havoc in both games.

-Philippe Lapointe was having a nice game until he took maybe the worst penalty of the season. He was called for boarding in the offensive zone with 10:35 left in the game. That just cannot happen. He’s a fourth year player, wearing a letter. His team is up a goal, half a period from the Frozen Four. The PK breaks down, and MSU pulls even. Thankfully, his teammates bailed him out and scored three more times. If not, it could have been a long trip back to Ann Arbor.

Defense Notes.

-Seamus Casey was scratched for the biggest game of the season. That just sucks so bad for him. On the ice, though, Michigan did actually manage very well. The biggest thing is losing what he bring is a major loss. It also spreads around minutes and responsibilities. Steve Holtz and Luca Fantilli both had to take on more. For the second game in a row, they both did very well. Over the course of the season, they have been points of concern on Michigan’s blue line. They were not against North Dakota, and each backed up that performance with another solid one against Michigan State. Major props to each of them.

-With no Seamus Casey, Ethan Edwards put in a very Casey-esque performance. Another blueliner who has been up and down this season was very up again. He finished the 3v2 rush by getting into the slot and burying his chance, tying the game. Edwards also sprung Nazar on his 2v1 and eventual insane pass. Ethan was credited with an assist on Duke’s final goal of the evening, as well. That’s a 1-2-3. If you really squint, maybe you can kinda see 26 instead of 73.

-Marshall Warren might have been the best defenseman on the ice for the Wolverines…again. He’s really starting to stack games. Without Casey, he was another Wolverine that was going to be relied upon for more. Marshall was solid in his own zone, skating well, and moving the puck. He also used his size and thickness well again. It was very apropos for Jacob Truscott to find him for his goal, breaking the 1-1 deadlock with a tally from inside the dot. They’d struggled together throughout the season at times, but on a Sunday night outside of St. Louis, they combined for a crucial goal.

 

 

IMG_7627

 

Tickets! Tickets please! (Vince Coughlin)

SPECIAL TEAMS CHART

 

PP Opportunities

PP Corsi For

PP Shots/Minute

Michigan State

2/3

12

1.8 (9/5)

Michigan

1/5

15

1.9 (15/8)

Power Play. Missing Seamus Casey was going to be big all game, but it was the most obvious on the power play. Michigan was still very dangerous, almost averaging two shots per minute. They created a number of good looks, but just could not beat Trey Augustine. The thing that Casey does so well it move guys and hit tape with his passes. Michigan tried Jacob Truscott, Ethan Edwards, and even Gavin Brindley up top at different times. It was okay, but Seamus Casey is a maestro. If he’s running this unit, I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan had at least one more. Dylan Duke finally beat Augustine on a deflection from a Gavin Brindley shot from the point. That was the icing on the cake, giving Michigan a three goal lead with 2:19 to go.

Penalty Kill. Normally super reliable, Michigan’s penalty kill had a rough go on Sunday night. They were having a very nice kill until Matt Basgall let a shot go from straightaway that Gavin O’Connell redirects downward with his stick just at crossbar height. It looked like Dylan Duke probably should have been tying him up instead of eyeing the guy way out by the boards. Still a redirect like that is hard to execute even with no one around. Unlucky in the end. Michigan’s second kill was much better thanks to Jake Barczewski’s outstanding saves. On the third MSU power play, Michigan was again en route to a solid kill when Mark Estapa left Joey Larson alone in the slot, making it all four Wolverines along the boards. Larson had time and space to even the game at two. All in all, one bad play, one unlucky bounce, and a number of good Barzo saves.

IMG_7536

 

Look who’s heading to St. Paul (Vince Coughlin)

GOALTENDING CHART

 

Michigan Shots Faced (House)

Michigan State Shots Faced (House)

First Period

11

13

Second Period

11

11

Third Period

18

11

Overtime

n/a

n/a

TOTAL

39

35

Notes. Jake Barczewski started in net to no one’s surprise. He was outstanding, once again, being named the All-Regional Goalie. After a rough few weeks, Barzo showed up massively playing in his own backyard. Jake saved 37 of 39 shots, including a number of tough scramble chances in front, down the stretch. While his defense was very sound around him, Barczewski cleaned up everything in front on him. It’s tough to ding him for either goal: an unlucky deflection right at the cross bar, and an open shooter in the slot that the PK just abandoned. All weekend, he saved 62 of 67 shots for a pretty nice .925. The hill gets tougher with the BC First Rounders up next, but right now, the former Golden Griffin is flying high.

ODD MAN RUSH CHART

Defense

Rushes

Advs

Escape%

Offense

Rushes

Advs

Scoring%

1st Period

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

n/a

n/a

n/a

2nd Period

1

3v2

100%

 

2

1v0, 3v2

50%

3rd Period

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

2

2v1 x2

50%

OT

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

n/a

n/a

n/a

Total

1

3v2

100%

 

4

1v0, 2v1 x2, 3v2

50%

Notes. Michigan gave up their only OMR of the Regional on a 3v2 chance in the second period. That shot whistled wide of the net. That’s it. Against MSU and North Dakota…one. One chance in transition. Wow. This was a bugaboo once upon a time. Not anymore!

On the other hand, the Wolverines diced through the Spartans forecheck and neutral zone with aplomb, scoring twice in four opportunities. Michigan tied the game at one on a 3v2, in which Dylan Duke gained the zone, and hit a wide open Ethan Edwards in the slot. Edwards coolly finished the chance. Up 3-2, on an adrenaline 2v1 rush, Frank Nazar made a BETWEEN THE LEGS pass across to Gavin Brindley who beat Trey Augustine cleanly inside the dot. While that might not have been the Goal of the Season, it was the Assist of the Season. Yikes. Michigan tore up the Spartans in transition in their first meetings, but have not had as much success doing so in their last few games. Sunday night in Maryland Heights was a different story, though. Wowza.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

So much for Team of Destiny. Michigan overcame a poor late penalty and power play goal to beat their 2024 nemesis and go to their third straight Frozen Four for the first time since ‘01-‘03. I’ll tell you what. It doesn’t get a whole lot sweeter than going through North Dakota and Michigan State. Sure, they play the BC Super Eagles in the semi-final, but they now haven’t lost in the ice in their last eight Regional games. Winning tournament games is awesome. Michigan is going to St. Paul. Michigan State is going home. Things are fun. Next up: Boston College at 8:30pm on Thursday April 11th on ESPN2.

Comments

stephenrjking

March 31st, 2024 at 11:16 PM ^

As good as you can imagine. Regional final games are usually most memorable when it’s a Yost madhouse, but to end MSU’s season? Delightful.

What a third period. 

True Blue in CO

March 31st, 2024 at 11:28 PM ^

Both of the Third periods this weekend were works of art by Michigan.  Great to see the best hockey of the season from this team in the past 4 weeks.  I have other commitments but all the best to those that can make it to St. Paul for the Frozen Four.  This team is at a solid floor level with a higher ceiling to further explore.  

AWAS

April 1st, 2024 at 9:59 AM ^

As a season ticket holder, I saw what I hope is a lifetime's worth of third period defensive mistakes and lost leads during the early/mid regular season.  It was clear the pieces were there--but could the puzzle be put together?  Kudos to the coach staff and the entire team for continuing to work, and continuing to improve.  It's so gratifying as a fan to see the team come together and achieve what was once implausible.  

Wolverine In Exile

April 1st, 2024 at 10:09 AM ^

After this weekend, I am withdrawing most of my questions of Naurato's coaching acumen. The last two games in high pressure situations against high end opponents, missing their #1 defenseman, their defensive structure has been nearly perfect. The retrieval and breakout structure was top notch, easy passes made by players being in the right spots to get the puck out and initiate counterattack. Keeping shots to areas where Barzo can square up and have eyes on target the entire time. That's attributable to coaching strategy and drill. 

AWAS

April 1st, 2024 at 10:36 AM ^

The in-game adjustments against NoDak were fantastic.  In addition to being able to replace Casey, Naurato rolled the all-star line which created a "heavy" line to be deployed, and really changed mid-game tempo.  It didn't look like NoDak had great matchups for either look, or were at least caught off guard.  

Back to back Frozen Four appearances should answer any questions about whether Naurato is the right person for the job.

 

wolvemarine

March 31st, 2024 at 11:30 PM ^

Nazar’s assist…just a typical backwards through your own legs, reverse backhand absolute dart across the ice for a perfect bullet goal…just one of the most freaking incredible hockey plays I have ever seen.

GO BLUE!

907_UM Nanook

April 1st, 2024 at 12:07 AM ^

I said before the post season that Nazar playing at a higher level would unlock this team. And bygolly he's there. Making saucer passes to teammates routine, entering the OZ 1 on 3 and being so evasive that he's a threat & allows the team to change shifts, making high level plays at high speed. He even laid a serious hit on a FYS player tonight, I had a double take. 

We need to get Seamus back healthy & just bottle up our mojo so we can uncork it on a very talented BC team. The opportunity to play another game is so precious, thank you hockey gods.

bronxblue

April 1st, 2024 at 12:35 AM ^

Great run by UM and showed a ton of resilience whenever MSU took the lead or tied it up.  Also, credit to Naurato for getting this team to turn it around after it legitimately looked like they were dead in Happy Valley.

Blinkin

April 1st, 2024 at 5:47 AM ^

I mean, give them credit, they had a great year (especially given their recent history) and it seems like they found a coach that will keep them competitive for a long time. 

Neg me if you want, but this year in hockey probably felt for FYS like 2021 football did for us. Finally win a conference title after years of struggle, then get bounced in the national tournament by a powerhouse program. They're not wrong to be happy with how the year went overall. 

bronxblue

April 1st, 2024 at 9:22 AM ^

MSU is back to being a pretty good hockey team, and for most of their run pre 2010s that's what they were.  They aren't quite as top-end talented as Michigan, and this year's UM team is one of the less talented (per the NHL draft process) we've seen in a minute so the gap is a bit narrower than usual, but they're solid.  I do think Augustine lifted them from 9/10 seed to top-4, but they're not going away as long as Nightengale is their coach.

BlueTimesTwo

April 1st, 2024 at 12:52 PM ^

Yeah, they are much improved, but it is hard to overestimate how much of an impact Augustine has had on that team.  They trust that he will bail them out on OMRs, so they can play their very aggressive style of offense where they throw lots of bodies at the rush and gamble a lot.  They made it work for much of the season, but it is a lot like OSU playing cover zero against us in football.  It puts a lot of pressure on the other team, but when it doesn't work you can get blown up.

Hensons Mobile…

April 1st, 2024 at 12:51 PM ^

The big difference between this and our 2021 football is that they got bounced by us. We got bounced by UGA...in the semifinals...where MSU hockey is not.

If they had lost to, say, Boston College or even had they lost to Western in Rd 1 (like they should have!) it would sting less. Even with us advancing. But there's no doubt that us beating them on the road to the FF is going to stick in their craw. Doesn't mean they can't appreciate the year they had.

Navray

April 1st, 2024 at 3:33 AM ^

everyone played awesome tonight. the overall commitment to team defense was excellent. the fact that a couple of lapses let in a couple goals doesn't distract from the fact that dangerous opportunities were very limited. great gameplan.

two weeks to get healthy and prep for the death star.

lhglrkwg

April 1st, 2024 at 6:17 AM ^

Didn't feel at all like a 58/42 Corsi split. It felt like all game Michigan was having the more dangerous chances and Augustine was just keeping them in it. Frankly Barzo wasn't far off from pitching a shutout

funkifyfl

April 1st, 2024 at 8:35 AM ^

I thought Eernisse played really well last night, but really over the whole weekend. Both games when the opposition starting getting momentum, it felt like Eernisse and his linemates would get the puck deep, create chances, and tilt the ice. He's not a headliner like some of the other dudes, but putting in good shifts in tight and late situations.

Harlans Haze

April 1st, 2024 at 11:41 AM ^

Was anyone else surprised that Duke's go-ahead goal wasn't challenged? When he brought it into the zone, Shifsky was really tip-toeing to stay onside. It was hard to tell just from the 2 broadcast angles, but if I was msu, I would have challenged it. The broadcast appeared to show 3 msu staffers at computers screens, who I thought were looking at the play. They might not have had a better angle. I thought it was close enough for (sorry, Nightengale) Augustine to challenge, and I thought the stoppage in time was important in stopping the momentum tide that UM had. Of course, that tide was not stopped with the 4th goal seconds later. 

BiaBiakabutuka21

April 1st, 2024 at 2:00 PM ^

Is there anything in college hockey that is the equivalent of Kenpom or SP+?  I see we are much lower on the Pairwise than the other Frozen Four teams but I’m curious how we would compare in a predictive ranking.  How much better is BC than us?  Would the closest way to view it be Corsi?

 

Also, any word on Seamus for the Frozen Four?