The 'Michigan hasn't played anybody' myth...

Submitted by Champeen on September 20th, 2021 at 11:29 AM

- Western Michigan beat power 5 conference Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh.  Pitt beat Tennessee at Tennessee this year.

- Washington is a power 5 conference team itself that have given up 8 points a game outside of Michigan.

- Northern Illinois beat power 5 conference Georgia Tech at Georgia Tech.  Georgia Tech only lost by 6 to annual powerhouse Clemson.

Additionally, even though Michigan has been favored in every game, they have won by more than double the average spread over 3 games.  They are crushing the experts expectations.  While other power 5 teams are losing (some times getting destroyed) to inferior opponents, Michigan is taking care of business in impressive fashion.

How or why do fans of Michigan - *ahem* like Skene *ahem* - keep underestimating/belittling this team? 

m_go_T

September 20th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^

Exactly this.  I feel that we can be happy with where we are at, enjoy the 3-0 start but let's just cool it with we are going to win the big ten BS.  If anything, the last 13 years have thoroughly humbled me as a Michigan fan, and I think that I am not alone.  Let's just enjoy the ride.  F the haters, but when we start riding high after a 3-0 start in three games we should have won (in hindsight), we are only giving them fuel for when we lose.  To paraphrase Aiden, we ain't done shit yet.  Until we do win something of consequence (OSU or a Big Ten title), we should just cautiously enjoy the season (because it has been so much fun so far).  

MGoShorts

September 20th, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^

you and all the other pedantic dudes who responded to this are hilarious

no, it's technically not EVERY!!!! season that we start hot; but we have fallen flat during the crucial final stretch every season, and I'd like to see one of you apologists explain that away

gbdub

September 20th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^

"Not winning anything that mattered". 

If that's your only takeaway from 2016 - you're gonna spend your whole fandom being pretty miserable. Maybe we shouldn't judge the whole program on one game that can get flipped on a couple inches (decided by openly partisan zebras)?

Anybody looking at this year realistically was expecting a middling record in a decidedly "let's make progress our goal" season. So far the team seems to be performing above that expectation. I would absolutely take 2016 as an excellent outcome for this year and enjoy the hell out of the ride. Honestly, 2016 as the expectation, let alone an UNACCEPTABLE outcome for any season, let alone this season, is crazy. 

Let people enjoy the ride.   

MGlobules

September 20th, 2021 at 8:36 PM ^

Just think if the players had this bullshit attitude. Only 1 in 100 or less would think it was worth even playing. These kids don't owe us a damned thing. I have to think that only the most jaundiced, consumer-addled person offers an opinion like this. After all, why do anything for the love of it? 

Unless you yourself are championship status [insert profession or art pursued] what kind of absurd demand are you making of 18-22 year olds that you don't live up to yourself? 

M_Born M_Believer

September 20th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^

Please provide actual data points to support your hot take of "We are in this scenario EVERY year."

 

PS: I will not hold my breathe waiting for your response.  I'll pass out before you provide an actual year where Michigan is 3-0 and dominated all 3 games......

 

Yes, Michigan has not won a Big Ten title since 2004....yes Michigan has lost to OSU repeatedly....yes Harbaugh has fared well on the road against ranked opponents.

If you want to wallow in BPONE and self doubt, that's your choice.  I'm a half full glass kind of a person because believing is the first step to succeeding.  Wallow in self doubt, you are destined to fail.....

Bus3002

September 20th, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^

I don't think the guy was wallowing in self doubt, I think he was being a realist.

2009:  Started 4-0, finished 1-7

2010:  Started 5-0, finished 2-6

2011:  Started 6-0, finished 5-2

2013:  Started 5-0, finished 2-6

2016:  Started 9-0, finished 1-3

2017:  Started 4-0, finished 4-5

Other than 2011, which was just Hoke pooping gold, we've seen this script before.  I'll admit, running game looks much better, but holy cow, some of us just want to see some proof that we are different this year so we don't get swelling from the inevitable dong punch.  If Harbaugh beats Wisconsin in Madison - I think I'll be ready to believe that Harbaugh has indeed changed the culture and is on the way to the promise we thought was possible when we hired him.  Until then I'm in a show me don't tell me status and as such - still skeptical.

gbdub

September 20th, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^

2017's 4-0 start included games against Air Force and a not-nearly-as-good-as-this-year Cinci team that were competitive well into the second half.

2013's 5-0 featured two wins over Akron and UConn by a combined 7 points. 

2010's 5-0 team beat FCS UMass by less than a touchdown.

2009's 4-0 only beat a 4 win Indiana team by 3 points (OK, that one was probably the best start of these bad years). 

2011 and 2016 are not years anyone should complain about except as missed opportunities (why oh why did you put Denard under center in a trash tornado? And f Ohio slappy refs). 

Going 3-0 is not unusual for Michigan. Going 3-0 convincingly is actually quite a bit more rare. Hell, the last time Michigan won the Big Ten (2004), the first 3 games featured a loss to a 6 win Notre Dame team and a 3 point victory over pre-Hoke SDSU. 

bklein09

September 20th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^

If anyone thinks that our first 3 games are predictive of success in the big ten, they haven’t been watching Michigan football the past 20 years. 

Sure, we could go 7-2 or 8-1 in conference. We could also go 5-4 and finish 3rd in the east yet again. Neither would be shocking at all, except maybe 8-1.

We’ve looked great so far this year. Just enjoy the ride and stop trying to predict what will happen next. 

MRunner73

September 20th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^

Michigan has shown some improvement each week, except for a weaker passing game against Washington. As long as they show more improvement each week whether in the passing game or on defense then I'm good with that.

Task at hand on Saturday, show that they are a superior team to Rutgers and play above expectations. If that happens, then we can discuss Wisconsin as soon as Sunday.

Creedence Tapes

September 20th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^

Well listing that Western beat Pitt, who beat Tennessee is very relevant indeed, because Tennessee plays Florida next, and Florida almost beat Alabama at home even, and Alabama is currently the number 1 team, and they already beat Miami who lost to Michigan State. Now a few years ago, Michigan State beat Ohio State, so since that went down, we are a shoe in to win out and take three Natty's in a row. Same season. 

True Blue in CO

September 20th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^

It is fair to say we have played all of our games at home and each of our first 3 opponents are not Top 50 teams, so yes, we have looked good against inferior teams on our own field.  However, we should be excited about Michigan's overall level of execution and consistency.  Execution and consistency will get altered against better teams, especially on the road.  However the coaching is making a big difference and the team is building a strong base to grow from in the weeks ahead.  

Couzen Rick's

September 20th, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^

2018 OSU beat Maryland 52-51 in OT. The next week we lost to OSU 62-39. Teams matchup well and poorly against different teams, and teams put emphasis on different games.

Not to say you're wrong - it's just waaaayyyyyyy too early to draw any kinds of conclusions from our existing data points for me.

Does Washington have a pretty good defense? Yes. Is WMU an upper tier MAC team? Probably. The NIU/GT/Clemson scenario I got nothing. Per FFFF, NIU Defense was expected to be trash and was trash, and in the NIU/GT game, the GT offense was trash. I did not watch the GT/Clemson game, and only know that there was a long-ass weather delay. The 14-8 final score seems to reinforce GT having a trash offense. Clemson lost to Georgia earlier this year in a low scoring game, so I don't know if they're having a down year, just some poor offense, or any combination of above.

The team looks pretty good and it's been fun so far and I will leave it at that, if only for the sake of my mental health.

Ceal

September 20th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^

I am not underestimating this years team.   I have not seen the offensive line look this good in years.   I think my thing is just can't bare to be hurt again.    I don't want to get my hopes up this early in the year only to find out we have other glaring flaws in a few weeks.    If Michigan looks like this a few games into the B1G sched, then Sats will again be my favorite day!    

Its not as much to me about who we played, but can we maintain consistency all year.

MGoBlue96

September 20th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^

I mean dismantling bad teams  in such overwhelming fashion is not something that has happened the last couple of years and it is something that teams that are in fact good do. On the flip side cautious optimism is understandable given how many times UM fans have been burned before. I am encouraged by how they look, but true unbridled excitement I'll save for if they go into Madison and win. I mean let's face it winning against good teams on the road has been a huge issue under Harbaugh.

tFerriState

September 20th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^

While Michigan took care of business for 3 straight weeks and I’m thrilled about that, they still have played 2 MAC teams and a 1-2 Washington team. That doesn’t quite move the needle. The next few weeks will be telling. 

njvictor

September 20th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^

Western is a solid offense and NIU beat Georgia Tech but both are still pretty bad teams. However, there has been a lot of over-reacting to Washington to the point where everyone is acting like that still wasn't a solid win. They have a good defense and we put up 31 points

Watching From Afar

September 20th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^

Washington has talent, but I seriously doubt their coaching staff now. Not just John Donovan. Their defensive approach, as Seth and Ace have pointed out, was to get punched in the face over and over again and never change. They kept 2 high Safeties inside the 10 and Michigan hadn't thrown a pass in like 12 plays!? That's terrible.

The PAC12 has 2 ranked teams right now and Washington might not finish very much above .500 in that conference. Still good to see the OL take on similarly talented DTs and LBs and win, but man I don't know how competent Washington is.

MGoNukeE

September 20th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^

More importantly, Michigan football has never beat a good team and will never beat a good team as noted by the last 2 decades of football. Every team Michigan beats is a bad team because they lost to Michigan. Have you never read r/cfb or listened to sports-talk radio?

/s

bronxblue

September 20th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^

I mean, few teams have played a particularly tough schedule.  Iowa has beaten two ranked (at the time) teams, and PSU has now beaten two good teams even if I think Auburn on the road is pretty overrated.  But like, ND nearly lost to 0-3 FSU, 1-2 Toledo (which just got smoked at home by 1-2 CSU), and a 2-1 Purdue team that looks to be mediocre at best.  OU barely beat 1-2 Tulane and a Nebraska team that lost to Illinois.  Getting worked up about strength of schedule 3 games into a season always leads to limited analysis.

Michigan's schedule has been fine and they've beaten all their opponents with authority.  That's all you can ask for.

WallyWallace

September 20th, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^

Agreed. Who really has beaten 'somebody?' PSU and Alabama beat conference foes on the road in games that have to played regardless, but other than Georgia beating Clemson, can't really think of a 'marquee' win out of conference. PSU squeaked by Auburn, but Auburn isn't really expected to do much this year. We'd likely have pummeled Auburn at home if you swapped out Washington.

WolverineHistorian

September 20th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^

Long story short, we played two MAC schools and the main draw of our non-conference schedule ended up losing to Montana.  So, we're not going to get much hoopla for beating them. 

The fortunate thing is we ended up looking much, MUCH better against Western and Northern Illinois than I thought we would.  And Washington still has plenty of time to salvage their season given how awful the PAC 12 looks.

We haven't reached the "meaty" point of the schedule yet and we still have yet to leave the comfortable confines of the big house.  So it's natural to be more in the wait and see approach.  But I'm very, VERY happy with what I've seen from us so far. 

 

Gree4

September 20th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^

My guess is the opponents are being downplayed because if there is a mess up or a loss, it wont hurt as much. Somewhere here signs of PTSD are showing up. 

Gobgoblue

September 20th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^

You made a whole post in response to another poster belittling the team? Down baddd

 

On the bright side, the last time Michigan really dominated its easier opponents like this was probably 2016?

Watching From Afar

September 20th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^

We can hold 2 thoughts in our heads at once.

Thought 1 - Michigan has beaten 2 MAC teams and a struggling P5 team that might not get above .500 in the PAC12 (or they might because the PAC12 kind of stinks?). None of those schools would finish about .500 in the Big Ten and what a lot of fans are focused on is beating PSU/Wisconsin/OSU/MSU. Beating the NW/Illinois of the Big Ten is essentially what Michigan has done to date. Which is better than last year, but we all know what actually matters is still to come and at a significantly higher bar.

WMU is a good MAC team, but they're still a MAC team. They beat Pitt, who is a 7-6/8-5 ACC team coached by a guy who screws himself a non-insignificant amount every year. Also, beating Tennessee hasn't been a good transitive win for like 9 out of the last 10 seasons.

Washington lost to a FCS team, has a bad offense coordinated by a bad OC, and never tried to really adjust to Michigan's punching them in the face over and over and over again. Their HC doesn't look like a good HC.

NIU beat GT, which is another middling ACC program (their Clemson loss looks ok but Clemson looks like they're struggling this year). Then they lost to Wyoming so not exactly impressive.

Thought 2 - Even when you account for who Michigan has beaten, they have been impressive. Paving a P5 defense with good DTs and LBs is a legitimately good thing. They could do that because Michigan's defense was never going to give up more than 13 points to that offense and Washington decided to never really make them throw. Popping big play after big play against NIU was fun and reminiscent of the 2016 and 2018 teams that had the talent and scheme. You can only beat who is on your schedule, but the schedule hasn't exactly been a murder's row.

We can be satisfied with what we've seen to date. We can also know the actual tests are coming and will be significantly harder than giving the ball to Corum and saying, "hey, see that G5 LB? Break his ankles, pants him, and then date his mom."

gbdub

September 20th, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^

Thought 2 is important. Michigan didn't score more than 36 points in any game in 2017, and played games against Air Force and Cincinnati that were competitive well into the second half, but finished with 8 wins. Most realistic 2021 projections had Michigan at something like 7.5 wins, so looking a lot better than a team that finished on the good side of that is nothing to sneeze at.  

We shouldn't overhype dismantling mediocre to bad teams - but don't ignore it either.

lhglrkwg

September 20th, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^

Michigan has beaten 3 bad teams like you would expect a very good team to beat 3 bad teams. We still don't know much until we face Wisconsin (or god forbid Rutgers)

SMart WolveFan

September 20th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^

The team hasn't been this far ahead in execution in decades, 

If they improve at a normal rate, they could easily be the better team in November.

Seems defense is back in fashion, glad we have one.

 

saveferris

September 20th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^

The last time Michigan under Jim Harbaugh came out looking this good early in the season was 2016, which was arguably his best team and the one season we should've won the conference championship, so there's reason for optimism.  Still the pull of BPONE is strong and road games against Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Penn State all loom ahead.

dragonchild

September 20th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^

It’s like OP doesn’t realize that football is too emotional, random, and stupid for the transitive property to work.

If OP is in middle school, that’s cute. If OP is old enough to drink, we got us here a Dunning-Kruger fit for upper management.

Blueblood80

September 20th, 2021 at 12:05 PM ^

It seems we have this discussion every year a few games into the season.

If you pay attention, you can usually tell during the non-con games what kinda team they have.  This year, it's obvious the team is playing really well and executing the plays at a level higher than I can remember.  They are dialed in, focused and on a mission.  When adversity comes their way, lets hope that all continues.

Carpetbagger

September 20th, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^

I don't get you people who act like we are Alabama after 3 games because we've beaten 3 good teams and I don't get those people who think we suck after 3 games because we've beaten 3 bad teams.

Do you people not have the patience to wait 2 more weeks to get better data? We'll know after Rutgers (no slouch) and Wisconsin (good) a lot better where we are.

We've shown we are better than last year, probably 2019. They look organized for the first time in awhile. I don't think we've shown we are better than Harbaugh teams previous to 2019. That's all we can glean from where we are right now.

Anything else is speculation based on insufficient data. Take a valium or something.

TeslaRedVictorBlue

September 20th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^

Fresno St. beat UCLA who beat LSU who I think could beat Florida (the one ? in this) who lost to Bama by a 2 pt conversion.

So... what that means is... absolutely nothing.

In the end, the Ws and Ls on whole speak for themselves. 

Now, let me completely contradict myself. Look at Sparty's schedule. They get us at home, no wisky, no iowa and their schedule, since miami blows again lines up for them to get to probably 9 wins. that, on the surface, is pretty incredible given where we thought they were.

They believe in their new coach and they appear to have the same "toughness" quality that MD instilled. Shoot the messenger if you like, just going off what i've seen.