Hot Take: We don’t need a transfer portal QB
Been thinking this through and wondering where we’re getting this need for a transfer portal QB stuff.
Jadyn Davis threw for 3,370 yards with 43 TD and 9 INT while completing 70.8% of his passes in 2023. Completed 72.5% of his passes for 3,425 yards with 43 TD and 6 INT.
I get there’s a significant learning curve in college football but it’s not like we ask our QBs to throw 40 times a game because Michigan is a run first team which shouldn’t change if we have Mullings, Hall, Cabana, and Edwards. Why couldn’t we ease Davis into the offense and give him easy throws underneath to our athletes like Morgan and Edwards? His skill set is accuracy, extending plays, and play action pass. We can absolutely work with that, especially if we have another great offensive line.
January 15th, 2024 at 11:51 AM ^
...and if we want to have an Orji on occasion throughout the game, who's going to complain about that?
January 15th, 2024 at 11:55 AM ^
indeed; Oral Roberts not on the schedule for a while
January 15th, 2024 at 12:55 PM ^
Liberty University is sort of into that...
January 15th, 2024 at 1:46 PM ^
RGIII loves himself an Orji on the field!
January 15th, 2024 at 11:53 AM ^
I'd like an experienced transfer QB to increase the baseline for next year.
Next year's defense is going to be good. I think it could be just as good as last year's defense, given that guys like Grant, Graham and Johnson should be peaking in year three. I think the OL isn't going to miss a beat and you have four known weapons in Loveland, Morgan, Edwards and Mullings on offense.
It would be truly awful if next year's team suffered a 2017 level comedown because the QB play isn't good enough.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:02 PM ^
Agree with experience. Davis is hopefully the future, but we have barely any actual experience at QB. The schedule is also balanced with tough games all season (Texas is game 2), so there's not half a season for a starter to settle in. Orji didn't attempt a pass last season, both Denegal and Warren attempted 5 passes.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:16 PM ^
Would have been the chef's kiss to take Kyle McCord and beat OSU with him.
They really didn't upgrade at QB and ran the kid out of town because born on 3rd can't accept his own shortcomings.
January 15th, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^
Amen brother.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:24 PM ^
All we need is Jake Rudock-level QB play, and this team would have a realistic chance of beating OSU next year. Take as many lottery tickets at QB as possible.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:25 PM ^
To be fair, I'm not sure the 2017 letdown happens if Speight doesn't get hurt. Sometimes it's things you can't control.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:31 PM ^
Agreed. Maybe the team loses that Purdue game, but I think they beat MSU and OSU with Speight and potentially Wisconsin. The Penn State game was always a loss.
My point on next year is that Michigan would be going into the season without even the Speight baseline. Its pretty much O'Korn, Peters and McCaffrey in the form of Denegal, Orji, Warren and Davis.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:36 PM ^
I’m not understanding all the Orji negative comments. I mean he was recruited here for a reason was he not? He doesn’t have to be Tom Brady. Just somewhere between Milroe and Shea would be fine. Everyone seems to have already decided he can’t throw, yet we haven’t actually seen if he can or can’t.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:49 PM ^
I think it’s some combination of (i)“he was only a three-star” bias, (ii) people watch NFL football and think a QB always needs to be an elite passer, (iii) bad memories of good defenses forcing Denard to beat them from the pocket, (iv) lack of faith that JH/S. Moore would sufficiently alter their schemes to capitalize on a run-first QB, (v) this whole “if he could pass then we’d have seen it by now” idea, (vi) and the fantasy of a portal savior.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:50 PM ^
There has to be a reason we haven't seen it... The dual threats like him are normally better in one area than the other, and you generally know it right away. The simple fact that Orji hasn't even tried to throw in two years says something on its own...
January 15th, 2024 at 1:30 PM ^
There's no reason for the coaching staff to bring in Orji to throw when you have McCarthy. They dialed it up in the postseason as a tendency breaker, but it didn't fool anyone. Hopefully we'll find out about his arm in the Spring.
January 15th, 2024 at 3:37 PM ^
When everyone knows you’re going to run and you have an ability to pass you pass.
At least a couple times.
January 15th, 2024 at 1:46 PM ^
Orji is in fact tied with The Don for the ncaa lead in career completion percentage.
January 15th, 2024 at 3:14 PM ^
Didn't they call a pass play for him (maybe against Bama), but no one was open and he ran out of bounds for a sack? So the staff at least had the confidence to call the play for him.
January 16th, 2024 at 9:50 PM ^
almost one pass attempt!
January 15th, 2024 at 1:01 PM ^
For me its the unknown. Maybe Orji or another QB on the roster will be great. But my hunch is that the current roster will be at Speight 2016/McNamara levels for next year if Michigan is lucky. And that might be good enough! But given that the schedule is so difficult next year, I'd prefer someone with some experience.
January 15th, 2024 at 1:43 PM ^
Well technically he was our 3rd string qb this year. So, yeah, not a ton of confidence at this point.
But we need to grab a coaching staff from the portal before a qb.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:41 PM ^
You cannot go into next year with Donovan Edwards being your most productive returning passer:
Career Passing Stats
Edwards: 3/3 108yds 1td 0int
Orji: 1/1 5yds 0td
Denegal: 4/5 50yds 1td 0int
No matter how high you are on Jadyn Davis or Orji's ceiling or *gulp* Denegal, you need to bring in at least one ready-to-play QB (I'd personally prefer two) to at least provide a bar of competency that the current QBs need to clear to win the starting job.
January 15th, 2024 at 3:38 PM ^
Cade should have waited his turn. S/
All this team needs is good QB play.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:48 PM ^
Yes, for the right experienced transfer QB (i.e. not Will Rogers, TaTa, etc.). If he's not there come spring, game-plan for the guys on campus. Maybe Orji's a poor man's Milroe. Maybe Jadyn Davis's poise translates to the next level quicker than expected. Maybe Davis Warren is Michigan's Stetson Bennett III. At this point, I trust the staff to make it work.
January 15th, 2024 at 1:37 PM ^
Tagovailoa or Rogers would be better here than at Maryland or Mississippi State. Both of them were the best players on mediocre/bad teams, so they pressed and made mistakes because they had no other choice to win.
I think we all know that JJ would put up way better numbers if he had played at Washington or Texas or USC, but he wouldn't have won as many games... just like Penix at Washington looked different than Penix at Indiana or Nix at Oregon looked way better than Nix at Auburn.
All in all, I find it weird to have more faith that our mystery box QB depth chart is going to churn out a quality B1G starter rather than a productive college QB with several years of starting experience can't cut down on some mistakes when asked to be more of a game manager.
January 15th, 2024 at 1:58 PM ^
Taulia, with JH as QB whisperer does sound pretty tantalizing. But if Minter comes back, I like the idea or pairing the best defense in the B1G with the Don and let Orji have a full offseason with the 1s. A conservative offense (a la 2021) with our defense should be good enough to get us in the expanded CFP.
January 15th, 2024 at 2:10 PM ^
Orji has thrown one career pass! One! He may be a competent passer, but even if the staff is confident that he can pass, doesn't necessarily mean he can do it in a game against another team's starters (Joe Milton says hello).
What I am FIRMLY OPPOSED to is intentionally throttling down the passing offense into something even more conservative next season... That's Kirk Ferentz or Pat Fitzgerald sh*t and it's a losing mentality when you decide to nuke yourself into just a one-dimensional running team.
It's one thing to find yourself in a situation where your QB is hurt or your running game is so dominant that you turn conservative in the moment because that's how you win that game; it's another to intentionally throttle down your offense going into the season because you're going to rely on your defense to win you games.
If anything, having a great defense should allow you to become more aggressive on offense because even if you turn the ball over and put them in a bad spot, they can hold and get you out of it.
January 15th, 2024 at 2:15 PM ^
Will Rogers is an inefficient system QB who really wouldn't fit Michigan's scheme.
TaTa has assembled a large enough body of evidence to know that he's not going to transform into an efficient QB capable of running a controlled offense. A recent example, where Maryland had the opportunity to take a two-TD lead over OSU:
It's not that weird to trust the staff on this, considering that the offense should look similar to the one that rolled some of the best defenses in the country without big games from JJ.
January 15th, 2024 at 3:06 PM ^
I watched the Egg Bowl and Mississippi State was a team devoid of both talent and coaching. To believe that's a referendum on Rogers – who has a career completion percentage of 69.3% on 1876 attempts with nearly a 4:1 TD/INT rate – labeling him an "inefficient system passer" is laughable.
And yes, I also watched Maryland throw away a golden chance to beat OSU and the brutal Taulia pick-six. But – and I cannot emphasize this enough – remember that this was Maryland against Ohio State; that they hung in with Ohio State in the Shoe is impressive on its own. Is it Taulia's fault that on the drive before Gattis pulled him on 4-and-1 from the 20 for the running QB and telegraphed an interior run that got stuffed? Or what about the year before when he went 26/36 for 293 and 2 tds and no ints against OSU in their 43-30 loss? Do you lay that at Taulia's feet as well?
And, to be honest, I trust last year's staff... but this staff could also look very different next year. Even if Harbaugh comes back, Minter may leave for the NFL and the defense could take a step back... that's not outside the realm of possibility. And while they didn't ask JJ to do a ton, the things they did ask JJ to do were high-level, high-difficulty throws... Asking Orji/Denegal/Davis to make the Roman post throw in the natty or Cornelius throw on third down against OSU is setting them up to fail, simply because they're not as talented or gifted as JJ was.
January 15th, 2024 at 4:18 PM ^
Citing volume stats to conclude that a QB is efficient doesn't make any sense. Rogers has a ton of completed passes for low YPA, borne out by a low QBR. Air Raid offenses have produced mirages like that for the last 25 years. Their QBs are like Russell Westbrook.
For TaTa, we can agree to disagree about how to divvy up blame for his Mr. Hyde moments. I'm glad that he's not going to be starting in Ann Arbor next year.
January 15th, 2024 at 4:38 PM ^
Even with what you just said about those two tranfers, theyre still leagues ahead of what Michigan is returning.
January 15th, 2024 at 11:53 AM ^
Let's see what it looks like in spring first. I do agree that he's the answer. It's my understanding he's been practicing with the team all through bowl prep which is huge.
January 15th, 2024 at 11:54 AM ^
Sorry, boss...I'm going to let our national title coaching staff make the decision over you...thanks for your opinion tho
January 15th, 2024 at 12:28 PM ^
Why even bother with a message board if that’s your attitude?
January 15th, 2024 at 1:46 PM ^
Exactly. The coaching staff only won it this year because they finally decided listen to advice offered by random posters on MGoblog.
January 15th, 2024 at 3:36 PM ^
True. But they didn't listen to my awesome suggestion to work in the reverse Statue of Liberty play with the backwards scramble for 30 yards, double reverse, lateral, then 90 yard bomb to one of our 300+ lb linemen with jersey change who sneakily lined up at TE. I was sort of peeved that they didn't use it and feel like it was probably good for an extra 2 touchdowns per game. Maybe this year.
January 15th, 2024 at 11:57 AM ^
Michigan’s offense is predicated upon ball control and not turning the ball over. If Davis can help do that then he will be just fine. It’s not always easy though for young kids (see JJ vs MSU in 2021).
January 15th, 2024 at 12:17 PM ^
Something you're forgetting though is part of what makes the offense successful is the threat of a big play QB like JJ. It's 2022 Ohio State. It's knowing if you crowd the line to stop the run and from there disguise your blitzes the QB will not make mistakes and instead bury you with poise and quick decisions.
That's the difference. You can do that to a freshman and eat him alive.
January 15th, 2024 at 1:01 PM ^
Is it crazy of me to believe Jadyn will be more college-ready than JJ was as a Freshman? JJ was super raw but super talented and athletic. That's why he was a five star. Lets not forget how 24/7 rates players, based on pro-potential not how well they will play in college.
I just have this feeling that Jadyn will be Cade McNamara 2021 level at minimum as a freshman with the ability to grow in future seasons.
January 15th, 2024 at 2:04 PM ^
Yes, absolutely crazy to think that.
January 15th, 2024 at 11:57 AM ^
A true freshman QB starting against Texas at home in week 2 is not something that is going to make me feel comfortable. We also have other QBs on this team that we know nothing about. Regardless, if Taulia Tagovailoa is interested in transferring to Michigan, you take him.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:02 PM ^
I can literally predict when he’s going to throw an INT or fumble every drive. He’s a turnover machine, don’t get this take.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:13 PM ^
He was on a team that had no running game and a poor offensive line. Put him on Michigan and manage his throws. Kid has a cannon and can be exceptionally accurate at times.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:18 PM ^
Kid has a cannot and can be exceptionally accurate at times.
Freudian slip? :)
January 15th, 2024 at 12:20 PM ^
If it was a good play, Gattis called it.
Fumbles and picks were Locksley play calls.
Right?
January 15th, 2024 at 11:54 PM ^
I agree
But he is better than any QB on this roster. Which is sad.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:16 PM ^
Tuttle!!
January 15th, 2024 at 11:58 AM ^
I hear you, but that is a ton to put on a young QB. Be good to have a vet, ease Jaden into some games late. If he takes off there -- or in practice -- you move over to him. In this age of transfer portal/NIL, QB depth is critical.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:05 PM ^
Denegal and Orji are way ahead of Davis.
January 15th, 2024 at 12:01 PM ^
Disagree. If the team was in a full rebuild, maybe you could roll the dice on a true freshman QB.
Michigan is going to return one of the best defenses in the Big Ten. Michigan loses a lot on offense, and I think needs to have a healthy competition to give it the best chance to compete next year. Michigan has not recruited the position well in the last 4 years as it did not sign a pure QB in the 2020 or 2023 classes. Given the importance of the position and what we have returning, the coaches owe it to the team to make sure the QB position does not torpedo the whole season.