Michigan and Georgia stat rankings
I was feeling curious about how Michigan and Georgia compared in terms of national rankings of key stats. I pulled these from: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/699. Overall, Georgia's and Michigan's rankings are similar but Georgia is slightly higher in more categories. One area where Michigan has a substantial advantage is in punting.
First down offense
Michigan #22
Georgia #17
3rd down conversion pct
Michigan #23
Georgia #33
Passing offense
Michigan #67
Georgia #53
Team pass efficiency
Michigan #40
Georgia #6
Sacks allowed
Michigan #3
Georgia #6
Rushing offense
Michigan #10
Georgia #30
Tackles for loss allowed
Michigan #1
Georgia #4
Red zone offense
Michigan #7
Georgia #53
Scoring offense
Michigan #13
Georgia #7
Total offense
Michigan #18
Georgia #27
3rd down conversion pct defense
Michigan #13
Georgia #19
First down defense
Michigan #21
Georgia #4
Rushing defense
Michigan #22
Georgia #3
Team tackles for loss
Michigan #75
Georgia #43
Passing yards allowed
Michigan #22
Georgia #3
Team pass efficiency defense
Michigan #10
Georgia #2
Team sacks
Michigan #46
Georgia #15
Red zone defense
Michigan #46
Georgia #1
Scoring defense
Michigan #4
Georgia #1
Total defense
Michigan #13
Georgia #2
Net punting
Michigan #4
Georgia #24
Punt return defense
Michigan #21
Georgia #105
Punt returns
Michigan #34
Georgia #54
Turnover margin
Michigan #40
Georgia #69
Fewest penalties per game
Michigan #22
Georgia #16
December 8th, 2021 at 3:00 AM ^
I watched Sam Webb on the SEC network interview and I'm of the same mindset. If Michigan can get the lead, I don't think Georgia has the offense to match Michigan score for score
December 8th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
Very true, but a big question on that is what Georgia defense are we going to get? Are we getting the one that looked like the best defense of the last decade for the first 12 weeks of the season, or the one that got gashed and throttled by Alabama?
If its the former, its going to be very, very difficult to put up a lot of points, and the best Michigan can hope for is a defensive slugfest where someone wins 21-14. If its the latter, then Michigan has a great chance to win that game.
Likely will be somewhere in the middle simply due to the level of competition stepping up from what they encountered on a weekly basis in a very weak SEC East, but the offense not being at the level of Saban's typical Death Star.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:18 AM ^
Think Georgia has been missing one of its top WRs for part of the season. He apparently played in their last couple of games at less that 100% but is expected to be a factor in the playoff game.
Just too damn bad that UM doesn't have that same luck with Ronnie Bell.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:31 AM ^
On the other hand, Georgia lost their star linebacker in late October due to off the field stuff and, to my knowledge, he won't be playing in the playoffs. Alabama is the only good team Georgia has played since they lost him and their linebacking unit struggled a lot in that game. On the other other hand, Michigan doesn't have Alabama's offense!
December 8th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
I'm not sure who they lost at linebacker but they have Butkus winner Nakobe Davis the top LB on most boards and Quay Walker another 5 star who'll be a high draft pick.
They are stacked with talent at linebacker. I think they struggled more with their secondary than at linebacker.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:28 AM ^
Adam Anderson’s absence loomed large yesterday (247sports.com)
^^ that is from the 247 Georgia board.....Georgia fans seem to be more concerned with having played Alabama without this guy than him being accused/charged with criminal sexual conduct (I think more than one victim/charge, not sure though). One poster in there even says "I hope that gal is happy." .....THAT'S how much sports matters to some people in this world.....wow (smh)...
December 8th, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
Adam Anderson will definitely not be playing in the playoffs. Best pass rushing OLB on the team, but he's currently out on bond following rape charges. He went from a possible 1st rounder to potentially spending a very long time in prison. If guilty, deservedly so.
December 8th, 2021 at 5:17 AM ^
I’m a lot more worried about their defense than their offense
December 8th, 2021 at 8:15 AM ^
Interesting to see how high our Red Zone Offense statistic is. Remember coming into November, the narrative was how often we had to settle for FG's? And now, #7 in the country. Gattis and the offense figured out how to get the ball into the end zone the final month of the season. May that continue into December / January!
December 8th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
I think the Redzone Offense doesn't discern from FGs vs TDs. I'd be interested in the comparison of TD:FG between GA and M
December 8th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
I’m not sure what OP means by “red zone offense,” but I’m not sure that’s showing Red Zone TD efficiency. It might be just scoring or a weighted metric.
Regardless we’ve become fantastic in that category. Since MSU, the offense has scored 24 TDs to 4 FGs, three of which were against IU.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^
Poor damn Jake Moody. He might be laid off in a cost cutting move...
December 8th, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
UM vs. GA Red zone stats.
I used 6 points in the % of possible points. But the site must include PAT and 2-pt data in totals so UM has scored over 100% of possible points. The "Red Zone woes" narrative was always a little exaggerated to me (and lingered too long). UM was down to 86th in TD % (0.564) after the MSU game but were ranked 34th in total TDs and 19th in % of possible points. GA was always worse in all categories. Both teams have improved steadily since that week.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
Even back then our red zone scoring was top 10 because Moody doesn't miss. Its only been in the last few weeks that our red zone trips have become automatic TD's.
December 8th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
Exactly, the narrative always focused on the problem of 3 not 6 when other teams sometimes (more than UM) weren't scoring at all. UM's ability to score at the clip they did was more significant and positive than the narrative allowed. When they improved their TD % while continuing their FG excellence, they just kept jumping up the rankings. Also, their number of attempts is a positive as well.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:19 AM ^
Except these stats don’t account for Michigan’s much tougher schedule.
December 8th, 2021 at 5:03 AM ^
I just pulled up a few SOS rankings ....
(Team Rankings) Georgia #1, Alabama #2, Michigan #3
(Power Ranking Guru) Alabama #3, Michigan #22, Georgia #32
(Warren Nolan): Alabama #3, Georgia #20, Michigan #22
December 8th, 2021 at 6:20 AM ^
While I think their defense is legit, I do think their offense is overrated. A reminder, Georgia is 3 and Michigan is 4 in offense SP+. However, if we look more closely, we see Georgia struggles with the best defenses it’s played against, whereas Michigan hasn’t. Against top-25 SP+ defenses, Georgia has done the following:
#3 Clemson — 3 points from offense
#10 Alabama — 24 points (in a loss)
#21 Auburn — 34 points
Michigan, meanwhile, has the following against top-25 defenses:
#2 Wisconsin — 38 points
#4 Iowa — 42 points
#6 Penn State — 21 points (with high winds/sleet)
#17 Ohio State — 42 dominant points
Sure, Georgia’s defense will be the best we’ve seen, but the difference (according to SP+) between Georgia and Wisconsin is smaller than that of Michigan and Bama. Georgia’s offense seems to roll against average or worse defenses, but when it’s come up against the top-tier of defense, it’s struggled. Michigan, on the other hand, has had some of its best offensive performances against top defenses.
December 8th, 2021 at 6:48 AM ^
Sounds like us with Don brown the last few years. Best in the country til we play a legit O.
December 8th, 2021 at 6:52 AM ^
This is a more apples to apples comparison. If you eliminate the easier opponents (some of which Michigan didn’t perform so well - Rutgers), and focus on performance against the top opponents, it’s looking favorable for Michigan.
The coaches know how to get creative on offense and make adjustments quickly on Defense. I like This matchup. Still think the playoff selection wreaks of SEC bias, but I like this match up
December 8th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
Exactly. Using ESPN's overall defense rankings, both teams faced 6 opponents in the top 50 nationally with Georgia averaging 32 points against them while Michigan averaged 37 points. Take out the PSU weather issues and Michigan averaged 40 points in the remaining 5 games. This team has shown they can score on top defenses.
What's remarkable is how similar the schedules were as a whole. Michigan's opponents' ranking averaged out at #61 while Georgia's opponents were #63. We scored 38 points/game while GA scored 39 points/game. However, GA loaded up on cupcakes while Michigan didn't always run up the score against the weaker defenses. Michigan scored 20 vs. Rutger (#79), 33 vs. both NW (#103) and Staee (#117). Meanwhile Georgia put up 43 vs. Mizzou (#111), 45 vs. Ga Tech (#111). 62 vs. Vandy (#118) and 56 vs. Charleston Southern (FCS - for the overall average I gave them the ranking of #131).
Based on performance this year, Michigan's offense should be able to score on Georgia's defense but Georgia's offense should have trouble scoring on Michigan's defense.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
Those SOS are all giving credit to very, very overrated SEC.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:20 AM ^
The only real measure for strength of schedule should be top 20 teams.
Other than Alabama, which destroyed them, the only top 20 team that Georgia faced was Clemson at 19. Clemson is known for not having an offense this year and Georgia only beat them 10 to 7.
Michigan played three teams in the top 20. Ohio State 6, MSU 10, and Iowa 15. Plus PSU and Wisconsin.
December 8th, 2021 at 5:04 AM ^
we're not going to be punting so our advantage there won't end up mattering.
we're going to be scoring and stuffing the UGA offense.
that is all.
December 8th, 2021 at 8:11 AM ^
Looks like it'll be pretty fun to watch Henning field punts against the #105 punt return defense team...
Can we cackle with knowing glee a little early?
December 8th, 2021 at 8:38 AM ^
when he fields it cleanly, cackle away. we all love it when he does that.
oh, and please no more fair catching balls inside the 5.
December 8th, 2021 at 6:12 AM ^
Need to find a way to cover the Bowers(TE) kid. Ross is a liability in coverage. Potential issue there.
December 8th, 2021 at 6:35 AM ^
I could see Michael Barrett having a bigger role in this game.
December 8th, 2021 at 8:56 AM ^
I really think you need a DB on him. He outran every Georgia Tech defender for a 77 yard TD (I know it's GT, but he literally kept increasing the gap). He's my biggest concern for this game.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
Daxton Hill says Hello.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
They had Dax on Iowa's very good TE last week so I would assume he will be on Bowers as well.
D-Line will be Hutch, Hinton, Smith, Ojabo
LBS, Ross, Colson
DBs Turner, Moore, Hawkins, Hill, Gray
Ross will be pulled for Barret on passing downs, just like against OSU and Iowa unless he's the one blitzing because Ross is a good blitzer.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
It is best to blitz Ross in passing downs.
December 8th, 2021 at 6:58 AM ^
They're beatable.
December 8th, 2021 at 7:23 AM ^
If we stubbornly try to run it up the middle, we're going to get trucked. You have to throw often to beat these guys.
December 8th, 2021 at 9:16 AM ^
We have to run it up the middle some, or the other stuff doesn't work, that's axiomatic.
What I hope we don't do is run up the middle 30 times. Their DTs are great. They are fast too, so edge stuff probably won't be as effective either.
Amazing I can say this, but if Gattis is as creative as he was the last 3-4 games, we'll be fine.
December 8th, 2021 at 9:26 AM ^
"What I hope we don't do is run up the middle 30 times."
I'm going to take it on faith that if UM runs the ball up the middle 30 times, they are finding surprising success there and we will all be very happy. Stunned, amazed, even perplexed, but very happy.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
Take downfield shots. Their back seven were getting very confused against Alabama. And getting beat deep.
December 8th, 2021 at 7:45 AM ^
Put those numbers in context with the competition Georgia faced vs. Michigan. I have Michigan in this game by 10.
With Georgia it's all SEC perception. If you took the same players and put Minnesota uniforms on them, you would look at the team differently, (hope this is making sense).
In another words, Georgia is good, but not as good as the perception of Georgia in the SEC.
December 8th, 2021 at 8:00 AM ^
Look at all the positivity in this thread! Love it!
December 8th, 2021 at 8:17 AM ^
I would love to see the stats/ranks from the last 5 games compared to Georgia. I don't know who they played, but that's from the MSU game on. That MSU game is where Cade's arm was unlocked and throws started going over the middle, and more all over the field. The offense became FAR more dynamic and diverse from that point of the season. It's really blossomed since then.
I just don't think the full season stats show where the offense is today.
Also - and I have to say this again - they have the #105 punt return defense. Do I have the only eyes that popped open at that number? Jay and AJ might be able to do something with that...
December 8th, 2021 at 9:06 AM ^
Yeah, totally agree. I love that you pointed out the MSU game too, because despite being a loss, I feel like that's where you could see the first inklings of what this team was turning into.
December 8th, 2021 at 8:39 AM ^
I’m guessing that GAs red zone offense is that they score a lot from outside the red zone and just haven’t converted as well on their comparatively fewer chances?
December 8th, 2021 at 8:48 AM ^
Things that worry me:
- UGA pass efficiency - UM has been susceptible to slot WR's and TE's, Bowers could have a big game.
- UGA first down defense - If UM gets behind the chains, they've shown mostly conservative playcalling. The last few weeks have been much better.
- UGA red zone defense - It seems like UM has fixed their early-season problems, hopefully they don't come back.
Things that make me confident:
- UGA punt return defense - Could A.J. get his first punt return TD?
- UM's defensive stats - They have played some elite offenses and have great stats to show for it. OSU put up big passing yards, but they were one-dimensional
- UGA's SOS - Not just their SOS, but the offenses they faced have been forced to pass because of deficits, and they are not good offenses.
December 8th, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^
Osu offense shouldn’t be regarded as one dimensional, imo. They may have looked that way against us but Henderson lit up most of big ten.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
He's clearly not saying "OSU's offense is one-dimensional." He's saying "When they played us, OSU's offense was one-dimensional." Now, whether that was because of godawful coaching on their side or something we did, I'm not sure.
December 8th, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
I feel like all I want to talk about is Georgia and how I like our chances. I am clearly unprepared for a month layoff before a game that means something. Anyway, if I'm too confident, or too annoying, I apologize; this is how this miracle of a season is manifesting for me.
I think if you take the whole season those numbers show a clear edge for Georgia. I don't even really want to get into SEC vs Big arguments, Georgia has clearly played a lot of very good football on both sides of the ball.
You look at recent performance though, and everything is going the other way. Like right now, Michigan has the best O-line in the country (no, I don't have the fancy stats to back that up, just a lot of pointing and clapping). Georgia on the other hand beat themselves as much as Alabama beat them. Lots of missed assignments and receivers wide open on not very tricky plays, really lackluster play from Georgia's O-line and D-line, and on the intangible side, just a lack of intensity and desire out of Georgia once they got down in a game they obviously should have been pretty up for.
I need to go watch Georgia's other games, because just watching that Alabama game quite obviously gave me a skewed perspective of their team, but if you didn't watch that game, I think the perception that Alabama aren't the world beaters they once were is correct, at least on that day it was correct. That QB did have a couple of hero throws, but otherwise, Alabama didn't do anything amazing, it was just that Georgia did not really show up.
I need to jam this in to my highly feelings ball take, but McNamara left the Iowa celebration to go watch film. That's the guy I'm betting on.
December 8th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
I have the feeling that UM is clearly good enough to beat Georgia, and we have plenty of athletes of our own as well, as well as being, at minimum, solid in sound in all phases of the game and all position groups, and elite in some areas.
But where I believe Michigan has the biggest edge is mentally…this team, with their leadership, their “We Will shock all the haters” attitude, and dare I say a general humility, respect for opponent, and workmanlike attitude, this is what I believe wins the game vs. Georgia and quite possibly Alabama too. Georgia has been a media darling since game 1 and you can sense a little entitlement from their side, also being who was “supposed” to win the SEC. Will they have something to prove after Bama? Yes, but our boys just seem to have the best locker room and mentality in college football.
Go Blue!
Beat Georgia!
December 8th, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
Thank you OP! This has been the most informative post/discussion about the game to date.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
Special teams and turnovers. That will be the difference.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
UGA's stats are also bolstered by playing an SEC that had only one other really good team, which just kicked its ass. Also played an FCS team and Vanderbilt who is objectively worse than any team on Michigan's schedule.