Questions in the aftermath of Harbaugh announcing return

My best educated guess is that the viks offered the "job" but couldn't work out an agreement on how much total control he'd have w/ the gm on football decisions. Possibly he saw the owners getting in the way and it reminded him of his falling out in San Fran. Thus a contract was never offered

I'll answer, rather than leave a bunch of useless snark or "OMG" posts that don't improve anything and have become FAR more annoying than duplicate threads about the exact same thing.

1. I think what happened is what's been well documented.  It's all consistent and very easy to draw a line.  Harbaugh thought he had an offer or a guarantee (and he probably did, pending certain stipulations) and he got up there and they just weren't aligned.

The Flores concern is real. The minority owner who doesn't like him is real. His old owner who HATES him, getting in the ear of the Vikings owner and that ownership group having concerns is real.

As I mentioned yesterday, it was reported that he wouldn't go without an offer. But no one ever said what that offer was. It could very well and my OPINION is that it was "I'm (the GM) signing off, but I don't have the final say, the job is yours if you get final approval from the ownership group."  I think you can take that as a rubber stamp or a, I've got the GM in my camp and I'm not worried about the owners.

Once he got there, they just weren't aligned on things and he came home. It doesn't sound like either party is mad about it or that Jim rejected or the Vikings pulled out. Just a "this isn't going to work out, is?" type of deal. 

As to what happen that led Jim to yesterday? I have my theory, but that's all it is...a theory.

2. Hurt. And I think the only way Jim could make it better, he's not thinking about and/or it's just not his style. But he needs to sign a long-term deal with a huge buyout that would make it impossible for him to leave. Then he needs to sit down with someone who knows how to write and he needs to write an open letter of sorts, explaining what happened and how he loves Michigan. That shit is corny, but it works.  Someone call the Players Tribune. 

Odds are he pretends like it's no big deal, nothing ever happened and is oblivious to the hurt, pain, and confusion that he's caused.

3. On3 reports that Bill O'Brien thought he was in line...but he really wasn't. That Rhule and Fickell were going to be the calls (even though everyone knows Luke hates Michigan and would never come, and we don't actually want him...but a phone call never hurts). But the ultimate goal was to keep the staff together. So if Rhule, Campbell or an outsider wanted to bring their staff (which is obviously likely) then they weren't getting the job.

Which means at the end of the day, it was likely going to be Gattis or Hart. On3 says there's something that weeded Gattis out already and Hart would be the guy (former Assoc. HC at IU and did more than just coach RBs). Hart and Gattis get along great and Gattis is likely gone in 1-2 years anyway.

Onward. 

Doesn’t matter. He’s staying 

In reading some of these responses, I believe that some people have the wrong take. Harbaugh was brought to Minnesota to sign a contract. He first had to get through the interview process, so it wasn't a formality but there was a very good chance that there was going to be a news conference and Harbaugh was going to be announced as the next coach. 

Somewhere in that 9 hour interview process, one-side or both sides, I think it will depend on who tells the story, started getting cold feet. Harbaugh moved on and the Vikings moved on. But this was not an interview to see where you stacked up to everyone else. This was an interview where at the end of the day, you were signing a contract.

I don't have the answers, but I know where you are going to be able to get them. In 3 years you can get them in John U. Bacon's new book "Safety: Jim Harbaugh stays home" for $32.99. 

1. I get the sense that both parties were ready to make this a deal on paper but both had reservations. Jim, having to leave Michigan and everything he built. Minnesota weary of Jim's past with the 49ers and his reputation of being difficult to work with. This likely all came to front during their interview and the hesitation on both sides was enough to restrict each other from committing. I'd imagine no offer was officially made (he was likely told he was the top candidate) but the decision was mutual. I'm sure neither of them wanted to be married together if they both had serious reservations. 

2. It will certainly hurt recruiting in the immediate. Opposing coaches and media will definitely spin that news and Jim lost a lot of good will. But if he continues to win like he did this past year and he remains an open book regarding his intentions, then I think time will heal. I think it will bode well that he was completely honest with the 2022 class. They can direct the 2023 class to talk to the 2022 class about how open he was about his interest and his word is good. 

3. If we consider that Harbaugh would be around for at least another 3 years, there will be many more candidates ripe for succession. Gattis would probably be gone next year as a HC and having a two year sample size of being a HC would do a lot to quell some unknowns about it. Hart likely steps up and gets more playcalling and managerial skills. An up and comer like Larry Foote, Matt Weiss, Mike Macdonald will all have much more experience to look at. 

What excites me is that last year's staff was filled with great coaches. Those guys now all have ties to Michigan. A few of those guys are bound to be HC material in a few years. 

I think the notion that Harbaugh was doing all of this to troll the NFL, or to put a gun to Michigan's head over NIL or whatever is a bunch of naive bullshit.  He wanted to see if he could go back to the NFL, there was some mutual interest from teams and for whatever reason a deal couldn't be made.    

I think Warde and Jim need to sign on a 10ish year contract at this point or the NFL rumors are going to affect recruiting. That was a very public flirtation with the NFL. If Jim is committed to Michigan again, he’ll need to show it 

Twitter hacks are going to speculate on what happened and provide no real evidence to support thier claims. We'll probably never know what happened behind closed doors during the interview process and we don't need to. Those things should be kept in house if you strive to be a professional organization and not a clown show. I have no issue with Jim speaking with NFL teams. Anyone who is offered a job at a higher level and doesn't even want to have a conversation about that offer would be foolish IMO. There are only 32 of those jobs in the world. 

We may never know, but I would not over-think. It was widely reported that Harbaugh was prepared to take the job if offered. Therefore, I would assume it was not offered, and that is that. I am not going to believe it was a mutual non-fit, unless there is compelling evidence of that.

Of course Jim Harbaugh loves Michigan. That is not inconsistent with wanting another opportunity to win a Super Bowl.

There’s no doubt that this is a recruiting negative. How could it be otherwise? There are NFL openings every year, and Harbaugh will always be on the rumored shortlist. Now, if a few years go by and he never interviews again, then maybe it would die down. For now, no kid could be sure that Harbaugh will be there to the end of his eligibility.

I think Gattis was most likely next-in-line, assuming they filled it in-house. Given the choice of a position coach and a coordinator who just won the Broyles award, how could it not be the latter? Mike Hart could be a head coach someday, but almost no one goes from position coach straight to head coach, especially at a program like Michigan.

-I think the thing that 'really' happened is that he didn't get an offer. A friend of mine who played football at Umich texted me just before the news broke to tell me that he was coming back because he didn't get an offer. Only one data point and I wasn't at the Minnesota-Harbaugh meeting but I believe my buddy.

-Feels like it'll probably put a cap on recruiting. I don't think Jim's interest in the NFL is going to go away and while the Michigan brand will still bring in plenty of kids, that uncertainty will probably sway a few who are 50/50 between us and other schools

Just the tip..........

I don't think there's much to it - he was testing the waters. I did this recently: got recruited by a rival company, took the call and then two follow-ups with senior execs. I knew after chat #2 that I wasn't going to jump, so was transparent on call #3 about this and left things on a good note, but also very confident in my decision to stay put. 

This is pretty common, especially now when the workforce is more mobile than even a generation ago. 

1.  I don’t know, and neither does anyone else on this board.

2.  We shall see.  If he signs a long contract, together with his pledge he is done with the NFL, it shouldn’t hurt.

3.  It doesn’t matter, assuming there even was a front runner in Warde’s mind before he interviewed anyone.

"-Who do you really think was next in line?"

Seriously? There's been endless speculation and now even with Harbaugh back you want to keep rehashing the same thing?

Harbaugh said this would not be an issue again.  IMO, that is made to the staff, players, incoming recruits and all recruits for this and next few classes. 

I believe that Harbaugh truly wanted a return to the nfl, but only if the right job came along, with the amount of control he likely wants and believes that a head coach needs to succeed in the nfl. That he either didn’t get an offer, or did get an offer that wasn’t to his liking that he rejected is really immaterial at this point. The reasons that he wanted a return to the nfl are also immaterial, whether it’s because he felt slighted and disgusted by the school’s restructuring and reduction of his contract, or that he truly wished a return to chase the elusive super bowl ring after this season at Michigan and proving to himself that he is a pretty darn good coach.

The details really are unimportant and I could see everything playing out the same way, with his nfl interest and the interest of teams themselves, if his time as Michigan’s coach had been even more successful than it has. I could see testing the nfl waters if he’d had another one or two big ten championships and another one or two playoff appearances. I could see the exact same thing happening if 99 percent of the fan base was ready to enshrine him as the greatest Michigan coach ever instead of the 50 percent who are happy and satisfied and the 50 percent who grab at anything they can to denounce him and run him out of town. 
 

That second 50 percent of fans are the ones spinning the negative narratives around the drama that happened, despite not having any proof whatsoever that what they are claiming happened actually did happen. They are the ones who turned this whole thing into another reason they want Harbaugh gone and aren’t happy that he is staying. No matter how well Harbaugh does next season as Michigan’s coach it just won’t be enough for all of those negative Nancy’s.

The only people whose opinions really matter are the other coaches and the players themselves. 

Does anyone have any evidence that this whole ordeal has had any negative impact on recruiting? I see lots of posts making the point as if it were a truism, yet I haven't seen players leaving the current or future classes over this. NSD #2 passed and as far as I can tell, nothing of note happened. The real signing day is now in December. 

If I'm wrong and there are guys being lost due to the head coach listening to other offers, I would love a link to actual reporting on the matter. 

It’s really hard to tell what was real and what was fluff people wanted us to hear. Like Rhule’s interest seems easily a negotiating tactic. Hart being the favored internal hire seemed too far-fetched. The only thing I really buy is that Jim had a genuine interest in taking a look at the NFL, explored it thoroughly, and decided against it.

I don’t think it hurts recruiting, since he didn’t stick his toe into a NFL job search, but whole hogged it. He’s never done anything like this before. He’s been open and honest about his pursuit, so if he is saying he doesn’t plan to do this next year, I think the recruits will believe him. They’ll get it, they want to go to the pros too.

I think the biggest damage area out of this is between some fans and Harbaugh. Most will quickly forget, but I imagine some will hold it against him any time something goes imperfectly.

What do you think really happened?

Based on what Vikings reporters have been saying, it seems that Harbaugh flew to Minnesota with the assumption the job was his. He said his good byes in Ann Arbor and was greeted in Minnesota with a 9 hour interview and no job offer. I think at that point he said "fuck this" and told Michigan he wanted to stay long term

Will this help or hurt recruiting?

It certainly won't help, but I don't think it should be a major setback. Word is that Harbaugh has been very open and honest with players/recruits about what he was planning to do and he needs to maintain that honesty. The "Harbaugh to the NFL" negative recruiting now has legs and he needs to set that straight with recruits and Warde needs to make his sure contract is structured to keep him around and happy

Who do you really think was next in line?

Who knows, but it doesn't matter at this point

What do I think really happened?

Jim took a huge paycut and had to eat crow.   So he and his agent decided he wasn't appreciated, so it can't hurt to test waters... come to think of it, I can't imagine him wanting to leave when he can coach JJ the next few years...vs...say a lame duck in Cousins, all the while having to move his young kids, to freezing Minnesota.... well played Jimbo

I will say that if the next QB in line after JJ in two-three years isn't looking good, will be when he leaves, and will head to NFL when JJ does.

The REAL question is:   Where does this leave Matt Rhule?

Where does this leave Matt Campbell?

Where does this leave Matt Millen?

My only question is:

What crisis can Harbaugh manufacture next off season to temper expectations of this psycho fanbase and remind the team that they'll never really be appreciated until they are three time national champions?

To me this talk of adverse impact on recruiting is nonsense. The recruits want to get to the NFL, so the fact that JH has been there (and might be back to help them at some point in the future if he goes back and they make it where they want to go) is not going to have an adverse impact on recruiting. Every single successful coach "may" leave to go to the NFL or to another college team. Most coaches are far more money driven than Harbaugh. He loves Michigan, so he would only leave if the right NFL job came even if you assume he is not sincere about staying at Michigan as long as he is wanted (and I believe him when he says that - call me naive), whereas virtually every other coach would leave in a nanosecond if a better offer came along, and all but the densest recruits know that.

A combination of things I think Jim was the leading candidate and clearly the Vikings are going to spin it differently but with the Dolphins/Browns issues arising I don’t think they’re going to tip their cap who they wanted to hire due to slander and backlash. I also think Harbaugh was lead to believe by his party he was a shoe in.  

I think the whole rumor about Ross taking Harbaugh if he really wanted to leave had some legs. I believe both Minnesota and Harbaugh knew that neither one would budge on what both parties wanted but the interview was a formality on both parts for different reasons. (Harbaugh wanted to leave UM, preferred Miami and high balled them with his stipulations. The Vikings probably was interested but knew he may not be but wanted to be sure before they made their final decision). Of course Harbaugh and anyone else wasn't counting on the latest issues currently surrounding Miami and threw a monkey wrench into the situation. 

I think a lot of people just misread Jim.  Understandable, since he’s a hard guy to read, but I think they went too far with the claim that he was out the door.  I think he legitimately wasn’t sure what his next move was and the Minnesota trip was an interview in both directions.  

In the interview the two sides didn’t connect, and Jim concluded by the end of the day that going back to the pros wasn’t worth it.  For those who think he was desperate for any pro job, note that he didn’t investigate the Dolphins or Jaguars.  He committed back to Michigan.