The Great J.J. Debate
If you've been listening to any draft talk at all, you've probably heard people either profess their love for J.J. McCarthy as the best QB in the draft or heard people lose their shit that anyone would consider taking him in the first round.
It seems to me that show hosts who are basically just fans and watch games are the ones who don't understand what the buzz is about. They look at box scores or think about how we beat Washington with Corum, Edwards, and the defense and figure case closed, he's a game manager. They put him in the Mac Jones box.
The people who really look at film or talk to scouts talk about his playmaking talent and his upside. But detractors will even use this as a negative--the "upside" means an unproven project who has never actually carried the team and the scout talk is a smokescreen. They think people only like J.J. for feelingsball reasons. (He's a winner! He's a leader!)
I've also heard people note that he's being used as a proxy for debating Michigan as a program and the legitimacy of the season.
J.J. being the hot topic has been kind of fun. It's still Michigan versus Everybody!
Williams displayed way more touch than JJ, and better accuracy too.
They lose at a higher rate, so they’ve got that over JJ. I mean, if your tracking statistics.
The case against him is basically total passing yardage, which is junior high level analysis.
It goes a little deeper than that (at least for serious criticism). More passing attempts means more film, which gives scouts more to go off of. When you think of the difference in attempts (not to mention all the games in which the starters got pulled early), it's almost like JJ has half as much experience as some of the other top QB prospects. So that's not nothing.
The counter is that there seems to be little that's actually on film that suggests he isn't one of the top QBs in the draft. He's had some issues with deep ball accuracy, people have said he's had accuracy issues with intermediate routes to the left, but that's about it. He has a very strong arm, is generally very accurate, sees the field well, is a good leader, etc. Personally I feel like that adds up to being one of the safest options for a top QB, about as safe as you're going to get (even first round QBs seem to be a crap shoot).
I understand the film argument that others make, but it also mystifies me a bit.
For all of Caleb Williams' film of amazing plays (vs mostly subpar defenses for his entire career), there are a ton of him completely screwing up a play, taking a sack, or throwing an INT because of his own poor decisions. Seems film cuts both ways in this case.
Williams can certainly be dynamic - but, the question is - how did he do against "better" defenses?
The ND game is an example that comes to mind - as well as USC's bowl game (where Williams did not play).
Regarding Williams - the emotion he showed after a loss doesn't bother me as much as the fingernail polish "messages" to certain opponents.
Well also the fact that Williams seems like a complete and utter diva personality. That alone would cause me to take JJ over him.
I would fully agree with this. The point with JJ's reps, which is a valid point, is that more would have been better. The problems and inconsistencies with Williams' larger rep size (vs. JJ's largely excellent, though smaller, sample size) shouldn't just be handwaived away though...
TLDR, I feel like JJ has shown more than enough skill to warrant being the top QB (especially in a system that will take more advantage of his passing), while also being probably the safest pick (maybe one or a couple of the other QBs have a slightly higher upside, but also a lower floor)...
More reps throwing in games does mean scouts have more certainty that the success is sustainable, that what they're seeing on film is the "real" JJ.
That said, JJ should have a roughly similar number of practice reps to other players with the same amount of experience -- it's not like he has less experience throwing the ball, it's just that the lower sample size of throws on film reduces the certainty that the film is an accurate representation of his true talent.
Secondly, there is more to evaluate than just game film. There is a reason they do all the drills at the combine, interviews with the player, etc.
I find it hard to believe that a scout could evaluate all of that data and come away feeling significantly more unsure about JJ, relative to the amount of baseline uncertainty that exists when evaluating any player.
That is the argument.
With Williams - he's thrown enough you've seen all the good and bad and can make a statistically supported argument.
With JJ - the sample size is so small you can't make an argument either way.
I get what you're saying. But that argument is essentially claiming that JJ's data sample isn't big enough to be statistically significant. But that's just not true - JJ started 29 games over the last 2 years. The Harbaughffense may be run-heavy, but there's PLENTY of film and stats on his passing in that sample size. This isn't a situation like Rudock where a "good but not great" QB got hot for the last 5 or 6 games of his career.
Yes, he has fewer attempts than someone like Williams, but not so much fewer that the data is irrelvant. Anyone who took a stats class can tell you that after a certain point, increasing the size of the sample doesn't have any meaningful impact on the validity of the data being collected.
But that argument is essentially claiming that JJ's data sample isn't big enough to be statistically significant.
That's not the argument (or at least the argument I'm making). Rather, the argument is simply that more is better. More passing attempts mean more reps, which means more information for scouts to go off of, and more experience for the QB to learn from.
Anyone who took a stats class can tell you that after a certain point, increasing the size of the sample doesn't have any meaningful impact on the validity of the data being collected.
Where I think I disagree is that this is true when you're taking a sample of a large population to try and get a sense of the makeup of the population. First, that would be like looking at a sample of JJ's throws and saying it's representative (i.e. looking at more isn't going to give you any new information). But with JJ you're talking about adding to the population size; just from an experience point of view (he should get better with more reps and experience), I don't think it's the same concept as increasing the sample of a pre-existing population. But also the college game is different enough from the NFL that with college film you're looking at a player's performance to try and project performance in the NFL. I don't think it's the same thing when you're trying to use a sample of a population to predict that population vs. using a sample of a population to predict a different population.
I think your point about "experience" is way off the mark.
JJ goes to practice, watches film, studies the playbook, does drills to work on his mechanics, probably the same amount as other QBs with a similar number of years starting.
There may be something small to be said for experience in live game situations, but if anything, a perceived lack of experience there would actually be a positive as far as the NFL is concerned, because it would just mean that he's already been highly successful without even coming close to his ceiling yet.
The only really relevant thing to consider about the number of passing attempts in games, is whether it's so low that his good stats could just be a statistical mirage due to the nature of randomness and low sample sizes.
I think it must be a law of the universe that no matter the sample, methodology, or conclusion, there will always be people who will criticize any statistical analysis because they feel the sample size is too small.
He has all the skills you could want, PLUS an exceptional temperment/attitude. I think if given a reasonable chance (i.e. not ruined by a crappy team with a revolving door of coaches) he will turn out to be the 1st or 2nd best of this class.
an added benefit - JJ drafted high will show recruit QB's that you CAN go to M and still be drafted in the upper 1st round, even without the gaudy stats.
Of course, we have a new coach, so who knows what the offense will be in a few years?
Our coach's catch phrase is SMASH and he called for 8 pass plays in his first big game as head coach. I don't think we're running the air raid anytime soon.
Michigan doesn't need to become an "Air Raid" offense. IMO, it will be interesting to follow the run / pass ratio - and, particularly if / how it moves from the approximate 60/40 ratio over the last few seasons.
There's one thing about ball possession and an efficient offense. If Michigan has the ball, the other team can't score. And, if Michigan scores "consistently" on offense - it becomes a game of field position and attrition - having a lead - maintaining it - and growing it.
FWIW - it will be interesting to me if the run/pass ratio moves to 55/45 or 50/50. I'm not betting that it will - it'll just be a statistic to reflect the play calling.
I think our run/pass ratio was already a lot more balanced than people think, after filtering out snaps where Michigan is in "kill clock and end the game" mode.
All true. And, if we win the championship with it, I don't care if we are running the wing-T.
My curiosity will be... "SMASH" aside, to this point, Sherrone knew he had the keys to Harbaugh's car. Wonder what it will look like in a few years as he's really free to evolve.
Personally, I LIKED our offense about ...90%. I LIKE bullyball. The other 10%: Those times when it's just not working, there are clearly other options, but Jim's just too damned stubborn to take them.
Your age comment surprised me since Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and JJ were in the same class. It looks like the age gap to Williams is 14 months, which is still pretty big, while Maye is five months older.
Part of the case against him is that because he didn’t throw the ball as often, he didn’t gain the same level of experience as others, which is obviously the case. If the buzz about him moving into the top 10 or even the top 5 proves to be correct, he might be thrown on to the field as the starter right away. If that happens and he’s not ready to go, things could get ugly. As the OP notes, he’s a polarizing player in draft discussions, and that’s entirely because of the offense he played in. I hope things go great for him, but how he does will be one of the most interesting stories of this year’s draft.
Nevermind the fact that he got pulled in the third quarter in the first 8-9 games of 2023. Can't imagine why that would limit his passing numbers.
He had a better passing performance against Bama than Jayden "Justin Fields 2.0" Daniels, FWIW.
"The case against him is basically total passing yardage, which is junior high level analysis."
There is a reasonably strong correlation between games started and NFL success.
Impossible to not sound like a homer but I think he's the least likely to bust of the top 5 QBs along with Jayden Daniels maybe who I would probably take first. Caleb Williams seems like a diva and I think he is the most likely to be a bust/non-leader (but probably has the highest ceiling if he grow sup) but I don't see that happening. Maye seems like a decent journeyman.
I would rank them ...
Daniels
JJ
Maye
Williams
Nix (too old)
I mean they do have vast amounts of time to fill and clicks to generate so having a Michigan quarterback to talk about and give hot takes on is kind of perfect right?
He ticks all the boxes an NFL team could want, accurate, mobile, strong enough arm, teammates seem to love him and his personality. But there are still valid questions just like with any QB prospect. He played behind the best (cumulative even if they didn't win the Joe Moore award this year) offensive line in the country for his ~2 year span with an incredible running game. Was that just concealing the best QB in the draft or was it hiding what he'd look like if he played behind Alabama's (or some other terrible) offensive line? I have zero clue on the latter question, fortunately I'm not tasked with making multi million dollar bets on which of these guys will pan out in the NFL or not.
I get it. People are used to seeing QBs, especially since Mayfield, Tagaviola (misspelled), and Burrow sling it 40x times a game and carry teams on their backs.
JJs sample size is smaller. But he did carry the team on his back at times.
2022 against OSU he carried us offensively in Quarters 1-3 before Edwards' runs through the heart of Ohio. But what people remember are those runs. Not the perfect pass to CJ when OSU was in Cover 0. JJ went into Columbus without Blake Corum and with DE with a broken hand, and OSU's game plan was make JJ beat them. He did.
The statgazers aren't considering his wow plays either. OSU 2023--that pass to Roman Wilson blanketed by Denzel Burke was absurd. Or his pass to Daylen Baldwin across the field in his first gametime in 2021. The one-hand catch of the Edwards throwback before immediately unloading a perfect pass while getting drilled. Just absurd plays. Or all his 15-20 yard runs when plays break down.
And on the flipside--how many bad plays has he made?
In 28 games as a starter and a season as a change-up: the picks against Ball State. The two pick sixes against TCU. The almost pick against Bama. Fumble at MSU. I'm sure there's a few more, but that is a really low number for someone who's played OSU 3 times, Bama, Georgia, TCU, PSU twice, MSU 3x.
there was one more bad play: on the third down right before the 4th and 2 conversion on the last drive vs Bama. Man, that could have ended the game.
But yeah, JJ is awesome
Thank you for referencing Edwards’ ‘run through the heart of Ohio’ as this made me go watch them again. Always worth it!
And let us never forget 'he's loose again'!
This is a fun thread because everyone is making excellent points.
The TD to Roman Wilson against OSU, and his interview after explaining the tendencies he observed in film study for that safety, is JJ in a nutshell, IMO. I mean, I love the dude, so I (we) are biased. But, I would genuinely be surprised if he had a less-than-good pro career barring injuries.
/Insert Crying Owens "that's my quarterback" gif.
JJ didn't have to carry the team most of the time, but when time came, he also delivered.
I understand that JJ is not a finished product nor a proven one, and only JJ can answer it with his plays in the years to come.
JJ is a franchise QB. Character, toughness, intellect, athleticism.
and he’s a national champion.
Wait....I thought I was told JJ was a NATTY?
And he’s a three time BIGGIE.
I think J.J.'s resiliency could end up being important as he grows (physically and mentally) into his final form. If he goes to a crappy, poorly managed team he could get beat up for a few games (or even seasons). He seems like the type who could weather the storm.
JJ is relatively young and inexperienced compared to the other QBs in this draft and other drafts, yet he lost one game as a starter, was a true team leader, and performed very, very well in ultra high-pressure situations. JJ is only going to get better and better as he continues his physical development and gets more experience and coaching. His ceiling is higher than so many QBs in the NFL. Barring injury the guy is going to be one hell of an NFL QB. I don't understand why folks can't see this.
Any JJ hater is just that, a hater.
I think the whole thing has shown how bad the general public and national media are at evaluating QBs (or at least how a college QB translates to the NFL). Any time I hear someone refer to Caleb Williams as the obvious number 1, “generational QB,” (as opposed to just predicting he’ll go first) I immediately mistrust anything they have to say about QB play. He had some pretty impressive plays, but his efficiency against top defenses is pretty pedestrian and he often built up stats throwing to wide open receivers and “backyard football” type plays.
He is a very good prospect, but I’d compare him more to Kyler Murray than Mahomes, but everyone is looking for the next Mahomes
I have read lots of articles on both sides, as you note (including some Washington commanders hack who is basically shitting all over him), but I haven't seen any proxies debating michigan as a program or legitimacy of the season. If anything, it's the strength of the run game and D that pundits use as JJ not "bring trusted to run the offense" or other such garbage.
Well, the "proxy" comment was just in one place--a Split Zone Duo podcast. I think people hate Split Zone around here, I'm not sure. I'm not that familiar with it.
It was an interesting show in that their overall discussion was "Why is J.J. such a hot-button topic?" and one of the theories was for Michigan fans, attacking J.J. is like attacking Michigan in general. I thought there was some truth to that. It's certainly not the main reason for the wide variance in how people view J.J.
I wish McCarthy all the success in the world, but nobody knows how he’ll be in the NFL.
The only stats that matter to me is 27-1 as a starter and national champion. 😀
My concern is that he ends up with an NFL North team (Minny?) and gets in the way of the Lions Super Bowl streak that's incoming. I'd hate to have to root against him. Send him to the Chargers where he can meet up with Detroit in multiple SBs.
If its JJ vs the Lions for a Super Bowl sign me up! There will be no disappointment for me that day.
My only reservation about him moving up the draft ladder is that the Steelers won't get him and will continue to be stuck in 9-8 purgatory with the likes of Pickett, Wilson, Rudolph, etc.
Haven’t you heard? The Steelers are saying they are sticking with Pickett. Good luck with that.
Yeah. I believe that as much as I believe a political candidate. It sounds like they're backing their guy and they'll stick with Pickett if there's no better option (e.g., Wilson or Fields).
I have read lots of articles on both sides, as you note (including some Washington commanders hack who is basically shitting all over him), but I haven't seen any proxies debating michigan as a program or legitimacy of the season. If anything, it's the strength of the run game and D that pundits use as JJ not "bring trusted to run the offense" or other such garbage.
As always, GO BLUE ALL DAY!!!
There’s 3 levels of JJ criticism:
Level 1, the people who only pay attention to counting stats, and think he tops out as a game manager. These people can be ignored.
Level 2, the people who are concerned that Michigan’s offense didn’t flow through the QB this year. This is a MUCH more legit concern, but if this is the extent of their analysis these people can ALSO be ignored. What JJ did for the Michigan offense this year was extremely high value.
Level 3, the people who are concerned that JJ doesn’t have enough tape to properly evaluate. Ok. This is true…ish. He has 2 entire seasons worth of tape, over 700 pass attempts. I get that’s less than the other top QBs. But. If you can’t analyze him from 700 throws, private workouts, the Combine, and Michigan’s Pro Day…you’re lying.
Remember that the talking heads aren’t paid to give good analysis - not a single NFL team drafts off their opinions (although it seemed like Matt Millen did…), they’re paid to drive engagement. And trolling Michigan is a tried and true business model.
So many high draft pick NFL QBs flame out. There are lots of measurables, but people like to have faith that a QB can put a team on his back and win a game. Probably bad examples, but Brady did it against Alabama in the Orange Bowl, and was picked in the 6th round... Henne did it with Braylon against MSU and was picked in the bottom of the second round.
For better or worse, JJ hasn't had to do the Dan Marino 2 minute drill to win the game a whole lot. We've been so good he hasn't had to display the It factor of "poise, leadership, confidence, intelligence, accuracy and execution."
JJ's 3rd down conversions and winning are signs that he does indeed have it, but we haven't been behind or needed "it" in very many games. There is something about the 10,000 hours and having been in that desperate situation multiple times that helps the player to perfect it and for people to see it.
I think JJ has it.
Harbaugh thinks he's great. He wasn't baselessly hyping up other QBs he coached at Michigan this way. I'd think Harbaugh's giddiness about JJ would be reassuring to NFL teams. The guy knows a bit about quarterbacking.
One Stage...
Three J.J.s...
THE DEBATE OF THE CENTURY
J.J. McCarthy.
J.J. Hunsecker.
Jimmie "J.J." Walker.
Who ya got?