Searchbits 1: Consider Starting Your Engines
Initial names… Sort Of
Not a lot trickling out yet. Mostly strikethroughs on potential candidates. Indiana State's Josh Schertz got a predictable but frustrating NCAA snub and looks like he'll go off the board almost immediately to St. Louis. Everyone else on Michigan's (probable) list is in the tournament and will be doing everything possible to suppress any job talk until they're knocked out.
Sam Webb linked an article on TJ Otzelberger from 2021 that says his buyout is the inverse Jimbo: it's 100% of his remaining salary. He's signed a couple of extensions since and it's possible that language has changed but there's nothing indicating that. I would assume that it has not since everyone seems convinced Otzelberger's buyout is prohibitive for everyone. Also: you do not sign that contract with that provision if you are looking at other jobs.
The two names that seem to be most prominent in the very early rumor mill percolating through the internet: Dusty May and Niko Medved, but I'm not sure how much of that is guys like me saying "hey this might be a good idea" and how much is actually reliable insider information. The panicked internet rumor that Michigan was looking at Marquette (and former Beilein) assistant DeAndre Haynes has been repeatedly shot down. (No offense to Haynes; it's just that if Michigan doesn't hire a sitting college head coach people will justifiably freak out.)
[After THE JUMP: empty chairs and guys I'm mostly not high on]
Personnel matters
The inevitable: Dug peaces out. Tarris Reed and George Washington also hit the portal. Khani Rooths decommits.
Durral Brooks told Mark Skol that he'll "be waiting to hear who the next Coach is and go from there," which sounds relatively promising for retention. Brooks is an in-state guy who may be more inclined to wait through the process. I can't find anything on the extremely un-google-able "Hans" Christian Anderson.
Either way next year is going to be a serious Year Zero for whoever it is.
The Unmentioned
A few guys who folks asked me about in response to my initial list of candidates:
Anthony Grant, Dayton. Dayton is the premiere program in the A10 and has a history of making guys look good, whereupon they go somewhere else and are mediocre. Archie Miller parlayed four straight bids and an Elite Eight run into the Indiana job, where he never finished above .500 in the Big Ten and was out after four years. Brian Gregory jumped to Georgia Tech; zero bids in five years, fired; hired at USF; six years, no bids, no .500 conference records; fired. Oliver Purnell is sort of the exception as he had bids his final three years at Clemson, but then he jumped to DePaul and won a total of 14 conference games in five years.
If Grant was killing it at Dayton, okay, but this is his second* bid in seven years and aside from the Obi Toppin year this looks like baseline Dayton performance. That's not enough to offset an Amaker-esque six-years at Alabama with one bid, a nine-seed.
*[the first "bid" was going to be a one-seed when they cancelled the tourney.]
Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon. Similar boat. Grand Canyon is the kind of school that's spent enough money on SEO that their article titled "Is Grand Canyon University A Diploma Mill?" shows up high in Google searches.
My "Grand Canyon University Is Not A Diploma Mill" shirt is raising questions already answered by the shirt
It is not a real place. It also spends vastly more money than any other school in its conference in a Liberty-like bid for respect it'll never get. Drew's success there has to be taken in a similar context to Grant's at Dayton.
That said: Drew did have three top-70 teams at Valpo in his five years there and his successors have not come anywhere near that, and his GCU team this year is a paradigm-shifter. His previous two bids at GCU were mediocre teams that got through tier conference tournament; this one went 29-4, 17-3 in the league and got a 12-seed.
However, his Vanderbilt tenure was eerily Juwan-like. He took over for Kevin Stallings, who had good teams his final two years, and after a solid year 1 he drove Vandy straight into the center of the earth, going 6-12 and then 0-18 in his final two years before getting a third year ziggy. The eerie Juwan parallels include two lottery picks Drew recruited in his final year. Darius Garland got hurt; Simi Shittu was an abominable college player (89 ORTG, 27% usage).
I'd rather not be the school that attempts to figure out if Drew has learned from his Vandy debacle.
Jerome Tang, Kansas State. One of the more speculative names to pop up, Tang's in just his second year as a head coach. In his first outing he got KSU a three-seed and ran to the Elite Eight. This year they went 19-14 and 8-10 in the Big 12, getting an NIT bid. Tang suffered two major personnel losses before the season, losing returning starter Nae'Qwan Tomlin to a bar fight and transfer guard Ques Glover to injury. Tomlin transferred to Memphis midseason and put up a 133 ORTG on 19% usage, FWIW. His replacements at C for Kansas State were considerably less effective.
Two things: every single player in Tang's rotation in year one was a transfer, and his TO rates are hideous. In two years as a head coach they are #259 and #349. This would be a vibes-based hire. His name keeps popping up, though.
Randy Bennett, St Mary's. Bennett has been at St. Mary's for 22 years. If he was going to go, he would have gone.
Kyle Smith, Washington State. This one I probably should have included. Smith has significantly outperformed Washington State's baseline, earning their first bid since 2008, when Tony Bennett got them back-to-back protected seeds. 11-9, 11-9, 14-6 in the Pac 12 the past few years.
Offsetting that: he was very middling in six years at Columbia and three at San Francisco, getting nowhere close to a bid for the large majority of that time. Also don't lend much credence to the "P5" aspect of his job, at least relative to Niko Medved. For the past few years the P12 and Mountain West have been close to equivalent conferences.
I want Darian DeVries but I'm guessing that Warde goes for either May or Medved. Since I know nothing maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised?!?
My money is on Abdur Rahim. He coached for Tom Crean. What more can you ask?.
That’s funny. I love what Crean did when he had Ant Edwards /s
So funny to me how “local ties” is a thing fans — and local media — love to throw out as significant. It’s not. It’s provincial. Good coaches catch on anywhere.
I want Dusty Rhodes. He's an American dream, baby.
If it comes down to between those two guys, I'll go with whichever one thinks subs are crazy.
Sometimes assistant coaches turn out great. The Arizona coach, Tommy Lloyd, went to Tucson from Spokane, where he had been the long-time (22 years!) assistant to Mark Few at Gonzaga. And he's killing it at Arizona, both with recruiting, the transfer portal, and on-court results.
(I'm not suggesting we go for Lloyd, obviously. Just, not all of us would "freak out" if Michigan went that route. Just get someone good. There's no guarantees anyway).
Honestly I was going to mention Lloyd as a candidate but then he signed a $5.5m per year extension. It's gonna take Kentucky/UNC basketball type money to pry him out of there now.
Great point. After the Howard experience, we have the taste of "must have head coaching experience" in our mouths.
That's a strong preference, but is it really a must have? Does it really reduce the likelihood of failure and increase the likelihood of success?
A long time assistant coach is something to consider. I doubt they are more likely to fail or less likely to succeed.
I'd lost track of Brian Gregory's career after Georgia Tech. I didn't know he was at USF.
Here's something to ponder: USF has been coached by Sparty Power Five failures (Stan Heath at Arkansas, Gregory at Georgia Tech) for 13 (!) of the past 16 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan_Heath
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Gregory
Izzo must be a secret regent at USF.
I will get downvoted to Bolivian here but we aren't going to wind up with anyone materially better than Juwan barring a miracle.
So funny how if T. Shannon is allowed to transfer and H. Dickinson stays, we are almost assuredly a Sweet 16 team instead of 8-56 or whatever we were.
People have short memories and short attention spans. Is anyone really that excited to get an unremarkable coach from Colorado State that Juwan actually beat head to head?
Juwan barely beat that Colorado State coach head to head. Plus Juwan had much more talent than that Colorado State coach.
Did he really? How many players on the Michigan roster would start elsewhere? That's, of course, a Juwan problem, to be sure, but it bears analysis.
Hunter, DeVante Jones, Diabate, Houstan, Brooks
All of those guys would have been starters on a lot of teams, especially Colorado State.
If you are knocking the Colo St coach for not beating UM then you are just looking for reasons.
Juwan made his bed. Sure plenty of people were helping him in this failure but 3 high school recruits over 2 seasons is an absolute disaster of roster management. This incoming class shouldve been 5 kids minimum. Too little too late but with "wait for these incoming freshman" in his back pocket maybe we gave him another season?
Year 1, maybe so. Keeping Washington, Reed, dug + the 3 recruits may be better than whatever roster UM rolls out next year. But pretty sure in year 5 (or even year 2+) the next coach won't be having perhaps the worst year ever in the program. That's just...ugh. it's abysmal.
Are you really sure we even make the tourney with Hunter and Shannon? Neither are point guards.
Howard couldn’t even get the team in the tournament with 2 lottery picks and Hunter Dickinson.
In a vacuum maybe. But the program needs a refresh at the head coaching spot so he has to go. You could probably swap him with whoever we get and it'd be an interesting exercise. We like Juwan, maybe love Juwan, but he had to go.
I didn't downvote you, but I couldn't possibly disagree more.
I don't even have to speculate about this year. Why? Because the thing you describe getting them into the sweet 16 basically happened last year. Ok, so not Terrance Shannon but yes Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard. 2 first round nba players. plus HD. No sweet 16. No anything.
I love Juwan Howard as a player. I was pleased at him as a hire from a "Michigan Man" perspective, but I have literally never liked his teams once past the 100% Beilein first year.
I'll say the same thing I said 10 games into year 2. Maybe he will be a great coach someday. But it's not today.
I love Beilein, but he wasn't a great coach after 4 years of head coaching. JH isn't good enough to run Michigan.
I'll semi-agree with you by saying: Nobody can fix this program for next year. Literally nobody. It's a crater. However, I 1000% disagree when you say there is no one substantively better than Howard (what you said) in terms of building this program over the next 3-5 years.
Rob
Juwan's first year was fantastic. Juwan's second team was a 1 seed going into the tournament? Juwan was a huge success his first two years Im not sure why we are trying to project through a false narrative? What he has done the last two seasons has been an absolute disaster but saying you saw this coming is ridiculous. The guy was 5-2 his first 2 tourneys. Its just been a disaster since his last tourney win. This is not how he coached his first 3 squads and Eli Brooks wasnt playing at a high level from what he remembered Coach b teaching him 2 seasons before. Something broke. Frankie leaving is a very underrated issue from last season. With a veteran point that was a tourney team.
I have no idea how you can guarantee anything, let alone sweet 16 with any lineup Howard would have thrown out. He had two straight teams with Dickinson and a few draft picks each time and missed the tourney all together and barely made it the other.
I'm not downvoting you, but you could probably draw a name out of the D1 hat and get someone better than Juwan. The odds we get someone better is high
C'mon, everything you posted is plain silly. I wish I could downvote you more than once.
You think Shannon would be the same (or better) player here? Prove it. Because once Beilein's guys left, this team has been getting worse and worse even with great talent and first-round NBA guys and that downfall is about coaching and culture. Just take a gander at how terribly our two transfers played defense this year after both being quite good at it before they showed up. I don't like Underwood's style but he's a much, much better coach than Howard and Shannon dodged a bullet when we wouldn't let him transfer in.
Juwan was primarily fired for off the court stuff, though the performance of the team the last two years didn’t help him. Honestly, Michigan had to cut ties. It really wasn’t much of a choice, and it looks like it was mutual.
A couple of thoughts on Anthony Grant:
He's a good coach. Not that Brian is saying this, but Dayton isn't a machine that's going to win no matter who the coach is. People have failed there before.
Foolish as this may sound, I'm not 100% sure that Grant would leave UD. He played there and has had significant support from the AD in dealing with a terrible personal tragedy. He might be a Dayton lifer.
Username checks out, you would undoubtedly have better intel than most.
Anthony Grant is, IMO, a good coach. He started at VCU, was a success, with a 76-25 record with 28,24,24 wins. He then got the Bama job. Won 20 games in 3/6 years and was 118-86 or 58% win rate. Not great, but hardly bad. One losing season in 6. He has been at Dayton for 7 years. His first year was 14-17, but all years since they have been good or very good. His win rate is over 71% since his first season. In the last 6 years his low mark on ADJO is # 89 (a high of #2) and his ADJD has been between 39 and 103).
Erik is right, by my guess, that he might be a Dayton lifer, like the guy at St. Mary's. I don't think it is accurate to put him aside as just another guy.
his "very middling in six years at Columbia" was historic overperformance for that program. Columbia is one of the worst D1 hoops programs and he built them into a 25-game winner. I would actually hire him just off the Columbia tenure alone.
I'd take Kyle Smith too. He has been a good coach and leader.
The four coaches before Smith at Columbia: 2 seasons of .500 or better in 23 years
Smith at Columbia: 4 seasons of .500 better in 6 years
He won 20+ games in each of his 3 seasons at San Francisco. That was definitely a better program, but they'd essentially been around .500 with a season here and there that spiked.
Smith can coach.
why did i think that grand canyon screenshot was an ad? i know mgoblog never has ads in the middle of articles
Is Brad Stevens feeling unchallenged in his current role as the president of an NBA team? It appears that way. I can only hope that it's time for him to seek new options that will allow him to fully utilize his skills and expertise.
How does it appear that way? Lol
It was sarcasm and didn't come across that way.
As a resident of Indiana, I appreciated the humor.
Oof! I know its early, but oof!
People ignoring him because of the holier than thou mentality, but consideration should 100% be given to Will Wade
Yeah, well, he has an active two-year show-cause penalty, which all but eliminates any chance of that happening.
He's served his 10-game suspension for McNeese and taken them above and beyond. The only continued show-cause penalties he would have going forward if hired would be:
No off campus recruiting related activites during any applicable April or summer evaluation contact period
Reduction in official visits by 4 during the 2024-25 academic years
No recruiting conversations or unofficial visits between Sept 1 2024-Oct 15 2024.
These are all EXTREMELY manageable. The guy just took McNeese from 11-22 to 30-3 in one year despite being suspended 10 of those games. To not even consider him would be a huge misstep
I'm not arguing that he wins games. But let's be honest here. Michigan is not LSU or McNeese. Michigan wouldn't even go to bat and stand up for Harbaugh. They will not take on someone else's punishment to hire a guy who has already been caught red-handed cheating.
Why on earth would you think there would be a fit with Will Wade and Michigan?
Wade is in the talent accumulation business. He doesn't always feel constrained by laws and rules in his quest to accumulate said talent. He is good at the accumulation of talent. I have no idea if he can coach a lick, but he's an excellent accumulator. Elite even.
Michigan is a school that makes it hard to accumulate talent. There are academic standards. Admissions obstacles. People who insist that the word student should be maintained as part of the term student-athlete, consequences be damned. And then there is the whole financial end of things, where Michigan is reluctant to dive head-first into the pool of transactional NIL. All of these things and more hamper the acquisition of talent.
If you're Will Wade, why would you want to deal with that? If you're Michigan, why would you want a coach who is going to fight against who and what you are with every fiber of his being?
Just ... no.
Meh. Dudes too slimy for us and his track record is only decent. He cheated his ass off at LSU and was only pretty good
I had forgotten about Josh Schertz. It will be a shame if he goes to the Billikens before he talks to us. But were he to wait for Warde to get around to noticing his outstanding record, I suppose that there's some risk he would never work again.
Per a Josh Schertz tweet, or whatever they call the thing over at X nowadays, he had 5 starters make all conference, the sixth man of the year, two guys on the all D team and I think the newcomer of the year in the MVC. He was just named the District 16 coach of the year by the coaches association.
Under 50, over .700 in wins.
Why does Juwan Howard still sound like the most attractive name out of any mentioned here?
Because his is the most famous name, especially among Michigan fans? I mean if you’re hiring a name, Juwan is the way to go. If you’re hiring a head basketball coach for a college team, on the other hand..,
He doesn’t
Mind blowing how many fans are satisfied with 8-24
Because you know nothing about college basketball.
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