Member for

14 years
Points
2996.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
I didn't downvote you, but I…

I didn't downvote you, but I couldn't possibly disagree more.

I don't even have to speculate about this year. Why? Because the thing you describe getting them into the sweet 16 basically happened last year. Ok, so not Terrance Shannon but yes Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard. 2 first round nba players. plus HD. No sweet 16. No anything.

I love Juwan Howard as a player. I was pleased at him as a hire from a "Michigan Man" perspective, but I have literally never liked his teams once past the 100% Beilein first year.

I'll say the same thing I said 10 games into year 2. Maybe he will be a great coach someday. But it's not today.

I love Beilein, but he wasn't a great coach after 4 years of head coaching. JH isn't good enough to run Michigan.

I'll semi-agree with you by saying: Nobody can fix this program for next year. Literally nobody. It's a crater. However, I 1000% disagree when you say there is no one substantively better than Howard  (what you said) in terms of building this program over the next 3-5 years.

        Rob

Seriously, I think it's…

Seriously, I think it's easier to answer: What needs do the guys Michigan will still have actually fill?

I suspect Taris Reed is about it for useful players. So.... we don't need Taris Reed.

 

Not sure I've ever had as…

Not sure I've ever had as visceral a notion of what it means to "flip your hips", as watching these guys go through these exercises. They are all good at it - some it looks fast, but like work. Will Johnson makes it look like he could run a 4.4 while changing back and forth every 5 steps. :) It's like he doesn't lose speed, balance or vision AT ALL.

          Rob

Jacob Oden looks really…

Jacob Oden looks really solid early, and then is running into the "OH! Getting in college shape is just a different ballgame" wall. :)

DJ Waller is a corner? How on earth has someone not tried to get him going after the quarterback or something.. He's just enormous, and somehow moves as well as the other guys. 

Awesome video!

I hope you’re right. I know…

I hope you’re right. I know this is what Alabama/Georgia/OSU have done for the last 15 years.

if by reload you mean “we are contenders for the National Championship in 24”. I am really hard pressed to see the number of questions about Michigans roster and coaching staff answered positively enough to win like we did last year. 
 

How do we score enough points against good defenses? 


 FWIW, basically saying what all the mgoblog guys except Seth said on their podcast yesterday.

   Rob

And now I realize again that…

And now I realize again that after 15 years of reading mgoblog (imo one of the best football blogs out there) I still know about 3% of football.

Heck, I struggled with the terminolo much less visualizing the defensive schemes and variations.

That said, DAMN! That was awesome! 
 

The biggest problem I have is evaluating the “how different is this from Minter” question. Lots of variety in the answers I see out there. 
 

This article obviously is way more about the rush part and zone blitz part than the coverages…some of the zone blitz dropout stuff sounds similar to what we’ve done to my ignorant self..

Thank you for this!

I agree with a LOT of this.

I agree with a LOT of this.

I think Tuttle makes this worst case pretty close to right. 
 

But, I think 7-5 is a rational worst case, where the defense is more like 10th instead of top 5 and the qb and oline don’t work out well and we lose another game to a team we shouldn’t based on TOs and just not scoring enough.

I’m predicting 9-3 right now, and I’m totally fine with that season.

This is a big deal IMO…

This is a big deal IMO. Others have said that the floor was just raised. I agree, and that’s substantial.

But I think it’s better than that. Frankly, I’d been seeing our qb ceiling as Jake Rudock. I mean, that’s not bad, but it’s limited for sure. I think Tuttle brings a higher ceiling as a qb but also a higher ceiling to the offense. He offers you the flexibility to run the qb that you get with Orji (I get it, he’s not the same level of athleticism), but is likely to be a better and less risky passer than any of our other options (in 24).

one more note: I actually think we might be more willing to run the qb in 24 than we were with JJ. Why? Frankly, it’s because an injury to Tuttle or whoever is less of a disaster than a JJ injury. Yeah, I said above that Tuttle is a step up. He is. But he’s not a JJ over Tuttle step up. 🙂

    Rob

This is clearly NIL. Oregon,…

This is clearly NIL. Oregon, Alabama and Ole Miss are the contenders. They offer big money. We don’t. With everyone gone on the coach side, there was nothing to hold the kid in the face of the big bag.

What on earth??!!?!?!

What on earth??!!?!?!

FWIW, I'm not mad at anyone…

FWIW, I'm not mad at anyone. I just don't think we did everything that could be done. Also - I didn't see the reports of "extremely competitive offers" to Minter and Elston. Every chance I missed them.

I have no argument against the reasons why someone might want to go to the NFL. There are also reasons to stay in a high quality situation like Michigan.. Assuming you have a competitive offer.

A lot of these lines look…

Some of these lines look pretty rational. 9-3 would be a pretty good outcome, I think..However...

I do think some of these lines understates the difference played by guys that were somewhere between all-time greats and really good players for Michigan and the guys that will replace them.. I know this is pretty obvious, but....

JJ McCarthy to (say) Alex Orji   - The distance here could be really huge. Not hating on Orji, just saying, if JJ is "the best quarterback ever to play for Michigan", and Alex Orji is not that. Also, he is playing with a 100% new o-line. Only Loveland back as a receiver... Given these variables I think that some of the lines in those games above might be difficult to achieve, or even impossible.

Mike Sanristil to Jaden McBurrows - Again, we're moving from a guy who made huge difference making plays seemingly all season to a guy who is likely to be a good player. I urge you to imagine 2023 with McBurrows playing nickel instead of Mikey.

Junior Colsun to Barsham Junior Colsun was a tackling force this year, who really glued the back seven together. Barsham is likely to be a good player. I think the distance between these guys is not as HUGE as it is in the other 2 places, but pretty damn big.

Corum/Edwards to Edwards/Mullings - Again, Edwards and Mullings - Likely to be darn good backs. Corum: greatest running back in Michigan history. 2023: Running behind extremely cohesive O-line. 2024: Literally every starter is new.

Offense and Defense, the potential for Michigan to have moved from awesome to good is really there, without being nasty or overly negative about the replacement situation.

9-3 is a darn good outcome in this situation, IMO. I'd be really happy with 9-3. 10-2 would be damn impressive. Better than that, eg, winning ALL those 10 games, plus beating texas or ohio state... That's an astounding outcome that "expecting it" is just wrong and unfair to every player and coach involved.

       Rob

8th (10-2 pre playoff) would…

8th (10-2 pre playoff) would be a really impressive accomplishment IMO. FWIW, I also thought 10-3 was an impressive accomplishment when JH did it as well. :)

    Rob

There is something in…

There is something in between apparently doing nothing and putting guns in anyone's mouth.

How about "Make good competitive offers and what happens happens"?

You may very well say "how do you know this didn't happen?"

I don't for sure.

But I suspect it didn't for the same reasons we believe things in general on this board. There was no report about a substantive offer to Minter, either for Michigan DC...or head coach. 

You may be right. Maybe no reasonable amount of money would have mattered. If I'm Michigan (note I switched to "Michigan" instead of WM, to represent the whole decision making tree), I would have made a clear offer to Minter to make him the highest paid DC in college football +20%. 

I'd be similarly aggressive with Elston and Clinkscale. 

None of these things are guns. It's taking your best shot. FWIW (and that's not much) I don't believe Michigan is taking their best shot with these guys.

      Rob

And a DC?

And a DC?

Repeat? Like, repeat as…

Repeat? Like, repeat as National Champs?

I'm going to skip the internet style bluster and simply say:

I don't think that's realistic. Any "expectation" that Michigan is a substantial repeat possibility is, IMO, unfair to the players and coaches on the 2024 team. 

For SM to take this staff and this roster to a NC would be an astounding feat of football coaching. Like, far more astounding than it takes to "just" run a good to excellent Michigan football program over time, and that's pretty damn good. 

          Rob

There is no question, some…

There is no question, some people had a rosy picture in their heads that did not take reality into account. Everyone was imagining Moeller for Bo, Carr for Moeller, and forgetting RichRod for Carr. 

I don't blame anyone here for thinking that way. It's not our jobs to be realistic.

OTOH, I also think Manuel was thinking that way to some degree. I DO blame him. It IS his job.

He was, IMO, unprepared to face the force of nature that is Jim Harbaugh and fight for what he needed to keep his football program together. Could he force people to stay that didn't want to? Obviously not. However, it's my opinion he is NOT taking the best shot he can take to retain some of these guys. That's a failure on his part.

        Rob

Anyone taking the Michigan…

Anyone taking the Michigan job right now, complete with expectations and talent turnover that is a part of college football, is "set up for failure".

Failure is always an option in these situations.

My statement has nothing to do with Sherrone Moore or his very considerable abilities. 

Both Moore and Harbaugh are under no illusions at all that winning just happens because you are at Michigan. Or because you're Jim Harbaugh. They both know you need the best team of coaches around you. The best organization. 

This is just super hard to do.  Jim Harbaugh isn't setting Moore up for failure. He's doing exactly what he needs to do to have a chance to take a moribund NFL franchise and have any chance at success in the next 2-3 years. He knows that if he doesn't turn it around NOW, he'll be the next guy ushered out in 1 year. 2 years.. 3 years maybe. 

Moore has 3 years to show he's got this, minimum. However, Hoke level failure will lead to him being fired. Whose fault is that? Nobodies. Not Harbaugh. That's just the way it is when you are paid millions to do a job and there are lots of capable dudes out there who could take that job. 

      Rob

I disagree. You don't…

I disagree. You don't succeed like Jim Harbaugh by making decisions based mainly or even largely on screwing other people. If he's pursuing these guys it's because he believes they are both the best and the most reliably good candidates for these jobs on his staff. I think it's just that simple. 
 
Does he dislike WM? Who knows? Yeah, probably. I just don't think that's what this is about.

         Rob

Wow, I've never seen this! I…

Wow, I've never seen this! I think I'll watch.....Predator again.

   Rob

Guy, I am as concerned about…

Guy, I am as concerned about Michigan's football future as anyone, but it's just not sane to suggest Michigan is in a worse place than MSU football wise. Our roster is infinitely more talented. Our coaching staff is better by any measure. As Sam Webb would say..Come on man.

       Rob

My points have been frozen…

My points have been frozen since 1/27, along with the activity stuff.

Because "culture" doesn't…

Because "culture" doesn't actually exist as a causative force. Culture is a by-product of winning, not the other way around.

Expertise and knowledge, leadership.. Those exist. If those guys have it, and want to be play callers, great. I have nothing against them at all.  IMO, culture has nothing to do with it, especially at the DC level.

     Rob

 

Isn't that funny..I've…

Isn't that funny..I've always found that one of my most entertaining and wonderful sources of conversation is comparing great to great.

I have a feeling I don't understand your comment.

Maybe it means "choosing a great thing over another great thing is hard"? Or "comparisons mean that one thing is "GOOD" and the other is "BAD", and calling a great thing bad is stupid?

Ok, I'm done guessing. :)

     Rob

I literally love John…

I literally love John Beilein, and would dearly love to see him back at Michigan. That said, I don't think he wants this job with all the stuff it entails now.I'm NOT saying he couldn't do it, or at least hire the right guys to do the stuff he doesn't want to do.. He's proven that.

I just don't think he'd take it. I say that with all regret.

    Rob

Looks like some hosting…

Looks like some hosting/content manager issues over the last day or two. Maybe the weird "points are being added" and "no comment box" are related in some fashion?

FWIW (not much) I've always…

FWIW (not much) I've always thought the "born on third base" line was incredibly entertaining and...largely bullshit.

Taking over a very successful bigtime college football program and keeping it at a high level is REALLY HARD. It is not near as hard as taking over a bigtime college football program that has NOT been successful of late  (2014 Michigan) and TAKING it to a high level. That's true.

But it is really really difficult. Guess what? Ryan Day is a very capable coach and administrator who has kinda kicked ass during one of the most difficult transitions in sports history...Well, he's kicked a decent amount of ass. He obviously missed one, yeah?

What's my point? The dude is a fantastic football coach, and WE KICKED HIS BUTT 3 years in a row! That accomplishment isn't made BETTER by pretending he's bad at what he does. It's made better by saying "Yeah, he's good, but JH and Michigan were way BETTER!".

Sherrone faces a big challenge here. I hope he gets the time and resources and buy in from the AD and others to give him a chance to succeed. He wasn't "born on third base" anymore than Day was, and whatever advantages either one has is overwhelmed by the expectations and difficulties inherent in the job.

      Rob

Even a little bit outside…

Even a little bit outside Ann Arbor it's nothing like that. My ~$400,000 home (3200 sq ft, 3 acres, 60 years old) does about $3800 a year in property taxes just outside Saline. I'm a 15 minute drive from Briarwood, 20 minutes to downtown.

Yes, A^2 is insane, just not as batshit crazy as Chicago.

You are 100% right. I…

You are 100% right. I realized that, which is why I tried to define it in a way that might actually be proven right or wrong.. in 9 years. :)

But your logic is dead on sir.

I'm just flabbergasted by…

I'm just flabbergasted by Brian's hot take. So....Taking it as an actual statement of his opinion (I'm never quite sure).. I won't say it's impossible that he's right, because no man knows the future..

But to predict that Michigan is literally better off with Jim Harbaugh gone feels like a prediction almost insanely unlikely to come to pass.. I mean this:

Ignoring 2020. I find it VERY hard to believe that Michigan will be better off over the next 9 years than they were over the last 9 years. Again, not impossible. Not saying Moore is bad. Just a clear statement that JH is one of the best football coaches ever. I find it hard to believe that we literally had another "one of the best ever" sitting there waiting to take over at 37.

If you want to neg this as "BPONE" or whatever, feel free. I don't think these are "negative expectations". Its a recognition that doing great things like JH has done are not easy. They are really, really hard. A lot has to go right. (Hell, a lot has to go right for Harbaugh to succeed in LA).

Predicting that it was literally a good thing for Michigan for JH to leave...I just can't agree with that.

     Rob

So this is "where we were at…

So this is "where we were at the last minute of the last game", not forward looking at all, right?

      Rob

This is one of the most…

This is one of the most rational takes I've seen on Michigan's future. I agree, this would be a very impressive accomplishment by Michigan and Sherrone Moore. I hope he gets the chance, and he doesn't get Alan Trammelled here.

Expected bad news is still…

Expected bad news is still bad news. I'd say Jim Harbaugh leaving is the worst news for Michigan football in 9 years. So, sorry, I'm counting it.

I didn't understand most of…

I didn't understand most of this.. But to answer your question: I'l "enjoy" (read treasure/love etc) this 2023 team and this National Championship till the day I die.

       Rob

I'm sorry to be somewhat…

I'm sorry to be somewhat reductionist, but you know the main thing that creates "culture"?

Winning.

Nobody has "culture" at 6-6.

      Rob

PS - FWIW, I don't disbelieve in the concept of culture as an aide to a successful organization. However, I'm saying success and culture have a two way symbiosis, and I think sometimes people think the "love" is what creates the success, when it's more complicated than that.

You do realize this is a…

You do realize this is a Michigan football blog not a Chargers blog, right?

my main concern is for Michigan football, not for what makes the Chargers better or for what JH “can have”.

I am not blaming JH or anything like it. Personally I’m happy for him. I love Harbaugh as a coach and am hugely impressed with him as a man.

As a Michigan football fan this (JH taking the best of the Michigan staff)  is a disaster mitigated by Sherrone Moores presence to some degree.

I’m very concerned that between the substantially increased degree of difficulty in schedule, loss of talent, and coaches, that Moore won’t have a realistic chance to succeed. If that happens, I have a feeling it will impact the program, Moores career, and also lead to the “cupboard bare” theme that happened with Rodriguez and Lloyd Carr.

right now there is not much good news here. 

I am blaming Warde for:
Not…

I am blaming Warde for:

Not maximizing Michigan's chances to retain Harbaugh. I do not and did not think he could ever guarantee retaining JH. FWIW, it's clear that other members of the UM administration, including Ono and the regents also bear some amount of blame here.

I literally never wanted to fire JH after 2020. I had many arguments with my friends who thought Matt Campbell was the man. Yes, I still make fun of them. 

Logged in to say: very, very…

Logged in to say: very, very nice.

It doesn’t.

It doesn’t.

I agree. This will be one of…

I agree. This will be one of a group of critical calls he’ll be making. Probably the most important.

Like I said, maybe it works…

Like I said, maybe it works. For every guy you mentioned there are 100 Matt Patricia’s. I think Moore is a good coach. Succeeding here will take a great coach and recruiter and manager and administrator. It’s almost unreasonable to expect that out of the gate.

The “next man” is a guy with…

The “next man” is a guy with nothing like the qualifications to do the job. This is a choice based on emotion, like the Howard hire. 

Michigan is not an entry level job.

Maybe it works, but it’s impossible to be optimistic given the challenges and problems faced here. Moore is not being born on third.

It is absolutely absurd that…

It is absolutely absurd that Manuel waited until it was over to reach his actual offer. Maybe Michigan could hire someone who is not totally incompetent for the next AD.

Imo he’s gone. It’s clear he…

Imo he’s gone. It’s clear he squandered whatever chance Michigan had. Just a disaster… :(

This is one of the many…

This is one of the many things that bothers me about this. This reminds me of Beilein to the Cavs. In 2 years he gets fired after not magically winning tons of games with a crap roster and being strangled by a horribly constructed cap structure.

JH is a great coach, but great coaches have been screwed before by abysmal situations and impatient owners. Heck, it's the standard behavior in the NFL. So Michigan's program dies (to some degree tbd) and JH has almost no chance to realize his dream..  The chargers and falcons seem like lose/lose.

      Rob

And St. Brown makes it a TD…

And St. Brown makes it a TD by maintaining his block on his corner. That guy has a real chance to tackle inside the 5.

The Lions remind me of a holy crap everybody stays around forever Michigan (you know, kinda like 2023 :) ). Duos, great WR blocking, run to pass, etc.  Obviously Michigan is a bit more "best defense in the world" approach as well. :)

          Rob

I'm really struggling to…

I'm really struggling to envision Michigan not having 2 losses at the end of the season next year. Out of Oregon, Texas,  OSU (road) (all top 15 teams at worst), plus USC and Washington (on the road)...Losing 2 of those 5 is a pretty good outcome for a team that's going to struggle to score points. The Texas game is so dang early that I don't see how we have an offense, plus having to adjust to a new defensive coordinator who might not actually come directly from the Ravens.

I'd be thrilled with 10-2 in the regular season as it looks right now..

Obviously if JH is back, he's pulled off the miracles before, so..

      Rob

 

I think I agree with you on…

I think I agree with you on 1 out of 4.. :) Michigan vs Oregon is, of course, not a gimme. I think Michigan wins, but gimme? No.

I think FSU/Alabama with FSU's second string guy is a very serious game. Florida State had a great D, and would have made life very hard for Alabama to score much. This might have been 14-9 FSU.

I didn't see Georgia "blast" much of anyone, and IMO, Penn States defense is way too good for that. I think Georgia wins because Penn State can't score enough. But...21-13 is not "blast".

The one I think you're just crazy wrong on is Washington/OSU. I just don't think Ohio State had enough offense to win "comfortably" or even at all against Washington. OSU is a good defensive team, but I don't think they shut down UW like we did. I think 31-17 Washington.

All in all, I think some of those non-top 4 teams had a real chance to be in at the end, especially Georgia, FSU, and Penn State. Oregon is in there, but runs up against the Michigan buzz saw defense.

I actually had this go…

I actually had this go through my head multiple times of late. :) Jack Harbaugh isn't dumb enough to take this job.

      Rob

Best defense without Minter?…

Best defense without Minter? Good defense sure. With a Don Brown ( a hire we have to do at the last minute ) level DC, I think best is off the table.