Winston was a dude [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Basketbullets: Michigan State Part One Comment Count

Brian February 25th, 2019 at 1:32 PM

2/24/2019 – Michigan 70, Michigan State 77 – 24-4, 13-4 Big Ten

DTE had trucks just sitting on the street yesterday in case the "bomb cyclone" that struck the area tore down a bunch of power lines. I put all the stuff that could blow away in the garage, and then I felt silly when it was just rather windy. I don't think the power went out much, if at all, in town.

So there is really no excuse that the local power company didn't swarm Crisler Arena with technicians at, oh, say the twelve minute mark of the second half. Neither was there a horde of EMTs with defibrillator paddles, or Gandalf and a bunch of horsemen. And this is why you lose a basketball game. The lack of technicians, EMTs and horsemen—who I would like to clarify are men riding horses and not centaurs, that would be silly—is a logistical issue that you can't overcome, and is naturally why a team that rushes out to 51 points in 25 minutes collapses to 4 in 10.

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help

I dunno, you come up with a better explanation.

Okay, I do have one item:

Attacking switches. MSU switched guards onto Teske, like Minnesota. Against Minnesota: layup, layup, assist, and they stop doing it. The same thing happened in this game, at least in the first half. Simpson drove Tillman early; he missed the shot but got a Kobe assist as the ball bounced to Teske on the weakside for an and-one. Livers dumped it down for an easy layup when Winston got switched onto Teske. A third incident saw Teske go to the line.

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this did draw FTs [Campredon]

Michigan then ignored Teske on these plays in the second half. Simpson did get to the line by driving Tillman; other incidents were universally contested off the dribble threes. This was especially brutal because Michigan was going through a ten minute stretch where they scored four points. Michigan cannot threaten to bench people who do not take advantage of the switch but for God's sake let's hope Beilein's glare is especially piercing in practice when this happens.

Guh. I thought most of Michigan's players played approximately in their regular range except Jordan Poole, who probably had the worst game of his career. He fouled McQuaid from three with four seconds on the shot clock; he flopped, leading it to a wide open McQuaid three; he inexplicably left Kithier after a switch, leading to a Kithier dunk; he jacked up step-back threes when Teske was being guarded by guys a foot shorter than him; he shot one three from 30 feet early in the clock.

He hit a couple of desperation shots late, but before that he was 0/4 from three on four tough bad-decision shots. Michigan had to pull him for Eli Brooks during the Great Point Desert, and that about says it all.

This is very much a Sports Talk Radio Hot Take but Poole needs to mature a bit before anyone takes him seriously as an NBA player. His decision-making is a major issue. He's a knock-down shooter when he's getting good rhythm threes but if he's not he appears to be under the impression he will keel over and  die if he goes more than four minutes without a shot.

Going under screens. MSU's first half approach was a bit odd: they went under all screens. Zavier Simpson screens, okay. But they also did this with Iggy screens…

…and even an Isaiah Livers screen; Michigan knocked down 5 of 11 first half threes. They were then 0-fer in the second half until Poole's late desperation shots. Hooray.

When an injury is good for your team. As noted in the preview, MSU is certainly no worse without Nick Ward as long as Tillman can get 30+ minutes. Tillman is a much more mobile defender. Is MSU switching Ward onto the perimeter? Uh…

…no. Tillman doesn't take up as much of the scoring load, but is Ward posting up several times in this game if he's in? Yes. Is he averaging 1.24 points per possession on those post-ups? Absolutely not. MSU's been better with Tillman on the floor this year, and it's not hard to see why after this game.

[After THE JUMP: I do not mention autobench, promise]

Shot volume. Odd distribution of OREBs and TOs given the last decade or so of these programs: Michigan out-OREB'd MSU 12 to 8 but had 9 TOs to MSU's 6. That latter is about right for MSU's defense, but for the MSU offense to have a 10% TO rate is a thing. That's about half their usual rate.

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yikes [Campredon]

Screens slicing M up. The Hard Hedge himself on what was happening to Michigan's defense:

The gameplan was apparently to not let Winston shoot from three at any costs, and that was largely accomplished. The cost was too costly. Michigan would tag Tillman, but Teske would stay with Winston longer than usual and the tagger would not have the same rhythm. So Winston would repeatedly wait for Livers or whoever to recover to a shooter and then hit Tillman, who Teske had not recovered to.

For a period in the second half Michigan was deploying Teske like they used to deploy Morgan: with an outright hard hedge. This was pretty effective at disrupting their action for a while and then it got sussed out.

Obligatory autobench complaint. Matthews got autobenched after McQuaid flailed on a three pointer—the shooting equivalent of a flop. Matthews finished with one foul. The bit where he was autobenched was also the bit where MSU was getting a ton of open looks from three. Matthews ended up having a bad game in part because he twisted his ankle, but hard not to wonder if Michigan could have eased out to an early lead there with Matthews on the floor.

Other bench complaint. Brandon Johns got two minutes at the five in which he got blown by for a bucket and then gave up a shooting foul; Michigan didn't score in those two minutes. I don't get why Colin Castleton, who's actually a five and just played well against Minnesota, isn't an option.

Ditto Eli Brooks, who got eight minutes, over DDJ. Good news: Brooks took a shot. Bad news: it was an off the dribble three that blasted off the backboard without touching the rim. Someone had to come on in the second half when Poole was in the process of losing his mind, but is a Matthews-Iggy-Livers 2-4 lineup untenable?

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this wasn't a charge but it shouldn't have been a foul either [Campredon]

DDJ did get a few minutes. He didn't have any usage on offense but did draw a charge on Winston; he was called for an extremely dubious foul on what should have been a no-call miss by Ahrens. DDJ got in legal guarding position and Ahrens went through his chest for a tough shot. He got bailed out. Good early signs for his defense.

Transition shut off, though? Michigan did shut off MSU's transition game almost entirely. Henry got an early bucket but it was a midrange jumper. The rest of MSU's transition opportunities were the odd turnover here and there, which will happen. Especially when Winston hits Brazdeikis in the arm from behind without a call. We had the same incredulous reaction even:

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[Campredon]

In an otherwise well-officiated game that one stood out. How often do you not get the call on a wrap-around that basically cannot both work and be legal?

Matthewsface. As always:

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[Campredon]

The most expressive face in Michigan basketball history. I mean, maybe, ask Craig about guys from before cameras.

Comments

Paps

February 25th, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^

maybe this is a Bad Take but I feel like people are glossing over how unpolished his game was last season and just kinda remember the shot against houston and a couple other highlight plays (a corner three during the big Maryland comeback comes to mind). When has his defense ever been that good? Im not saying he's a bad player, but based on his play last year, an improvement to what he is this year seems pretty normal. 

TrueBlue2003

February 27th, 2019 at 1:22 AM ^

He makes more mental mistakes than a lot of freshmen despite having two years in the program with excellent coaches. He does inexplicable things like leaving a guy on the block (Kithier) for absolutely no reason.  He falls for shot fakes at 26 feet with four seconds on the clock.  These are things most guys know coming out of high school and the ones that don't quickly learn them if they have good coaches, which Poole certainly does.

He is immensely undisciplined. Moreso than any Michigan player I can recall under John Beilein.

bronxblue

February 25th, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^

It seemed like people around here thought he was more NBA-ready than the experts did.  I saw a couple of places list him at the very tail end of the second round, but a lot of those read as "we haven't really considered international guys and he's a player on the NC runner-up, so whatever".  He's not a good enough shooter yet to be considered a lock for an NBA rotation, and he's not great at anything else to compensate.  He'll get there, but the only guy I legitimately expected to leave after this year was Matthews.

Sambojangles

February 25th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^

That notion assumed a great amount of development of Poole over the course of the season. I don't think that was crazy; we've seen Beilein get others to leap from good to NBA draftpick over the course of a sophomore season. Poole, however, seems to be no better now than at the beginning of the year (if not worse). 

L'Carpetron Do…

February 26th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^

Surprisingly, Brooks, his primary back up has also regressed.  Brooks came in and made some plays in the Villanova and UNC games if I remember correctly and I really liked him off the bench last year. BUt now he's afraid to shoot or make a hard/quick move.  Luckily I think the problem for both of these guys is mental and hopefully they can snap out of it sooner rather than later.

4th phase

February 25th, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^

Actually it goes back to a hoops mailbag that Ace did. Where he compared freshman Poole to similar players on Bart Torvik. Players mentioned we're: Malik Monk, Bradley Beal, James Harden, De'Aron Fox, Victor Oladipo, and D'Angelo Russel. 

The problem was he was coming off the bench and playing 1/3 of minutes. This year he's playing over 80% of minutes and his TO rate is up and his usage is down a few points.

So yeah Poole to the NBA was a hype train that departed from mgoblog station. 

Detroit Dan

February 25th, 2019 at 11:30 PM ^

Some of the commentators (TV announcers) earlier in the year opined that Poole was a top NBA prospect.  

Remember the long 3s that Villanova hit against us last year to win the national championship.  If Poole makes some of these difficult shots, then the conversation is turned around 180 degrees.  Many of the greats make the unusually difficult shots, then feast on being overplayed on those type of shots.  So it's a gamble -- one Michigan lost yesterday.  Kind of like Teske 3s.  They're horrible until they start going in; then we're national champions.

TrueBlue2003

February 27th, 2019 at 1:30 AM ^

Poole has been taking those shots all year and they haven't gone in.  He isn't a "great" so he shouldn't be taking low percentage shots.

Teske was "horrible" on his first 11 threes.  That's a tiny number.  He clearly was making them a higher rate in practice to get the green light.  And lo, since those first 11 shots, he's shooting 36.4%, which is very good.

Poole has been bad on a much larger number of step-back/slide-step threes.  This is well beyond just a small sample size issue like it was for Teske.

Hail-Storm

February 25th, 2019 at 5:25 PM ^

Could be that We saw his talent and then assumed he'd get the Beilein Sophomore bump.  He definitely has not taken that step.  He makes plays, but he is not showing the type of vision that he needs to be an elite guard. 

I was definitely mad that he seemed to throw up those shots rather than Michigan just running their offense.  Surprised Beilein didn't take a time out to just make them run the offense.  Get two points, cause a turnover or missed shot, repeat.  Its like the team panicked and went into desperation mode way to early.

I really wanted to see Matthews involved a lot more as well as Teske. Matthews had that great move to attack the rim and then not much to feed into him. Hoping that Michigan can come up with a win in Breslin in two weeks.

jmblue

February 25th, 2019 at 6:30 PM ^

Before the year I thought we'd have a pretty good team but next year's might really be special.  Our hot start in November/December changed my thinking, but now I'm coming back to the original idea.  This is a good team, and may yet do big things in March, but you can see some things - lack of depth, inconsistent shooting, some fundamental issues (passing, shot selection, avoiding silly fouls) for a few guys - which may hold us back. 

I don't know, maybe we'll see a late-season leap from somebody and this ends up being the year after all.  But if Matthews is our only departure, we could be looking at a significantly deeper, more experienced team for 2019-20.  

N. Campus Tech

February 26th, 2019 at 10:55 AM ^

He reminds me of Zak Irvin. As a freshman they were coming off of the bench and getting spot minutes and looked great. As sophomores, they were suddenly starters and getting more focus from the opposing defense.

Poole has a higher ceiling than Zak, but it looks like his sophomore slump floor is going to be a little lower too.

UofM Die Hard …

February 26th, 2019 at 3:27 PM ^

Agreed.  I love the young man but he has to get out of his own way....or next year, and going forward, he will not play as much.  We cant sit him to send a message because there is zero depth behind him..next year is different thought.  Team should be deeper and talented, he keeps doing this selfish stuff (sorry, calling a spade a spade..its selfish) then he will sit.

He has all the talent in the world, I hope we get to see him at those ridiculous levels. 

TrueBlue2003

February 27th, 2019 at 1:45 AM ^

I don't know if next year will be different in terms of depth at that position.  Nunez has a long, long way to go as does Brooks.  And I don't think the freshmen are guards as much as wings/stretch fours, right?

The recruiting at the 2 spot has been a bit lacking for a few years.  Since M recruited MAAR, I think Poole has been the only true shooting guard.

Go Blue 80

February 25th, 2019 at 1:51 PM ^

Beilein should start DeJulius over Poole Thursday night to send Poole a message.  DeJulius looks like an upgrade over Poole on defense anyways.  Did anyone else cringe when they saw Johns and Brooks checking in together?  Those two should not be on the floor at the same time right now, if at all.  That's essentially 3 on 5.

AeonBlue

February 25th, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^

I thought the hard hedge wasn't working out in the first half and was incredulous that they stayed with it in the 2nd half after it got MSU a bunch of free points. This just sort of felt like a Harbaugh game where the gameplan is the gameplan and no adjustments were made. 

JonSnow54

February 25th, 2019 at 3:38 PM ^

"Umm.... no?"

Not sure if this is directed at me or not?  If so - this is the correct rule, ijohnb.  After the offense establishes the front court (the ball and both feet of the ball handler need to completely pass the half court line to establish), the half court line then turns into the equivalent of an out of bounds line. 

You can't touch the out of bounds line with your foot when attempting to save a ball going out of bounds; the same applies to the half court line after the offense establishes the front court and you are attempting to save a ball traveling into the back court.

JonSnow54

February 25th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^

kvnryn - this is correct.  However this has nothing to do with the situation Boner is referencing, which was when MSU saved a ball under their hoop and threw it back into play, and it was traveling towards the back court.  The MSU player attempted to save it before it did, and in doing so stepped on the half court line while jumping to save the ball.  This is (or should have been) an over-and-back violation.

The ref even appeared to be looking at the player's foot to watch for this violation, but still missed it.  In his defense, he had a bad angle and probably couldn't see the toe on the line.

SDCran

February 25th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^

Definitely over and back.   

 

Question for the board on the subsequent foul on Poole.   How should I think about those where the shooter pump fakes and dives into a guy in a completely non-shooting, non-basketball way?  JB didn’t seem to like it.   (I hate that one more than the charge/flop)  when is it a foul and when should the shooter get the head shake from the ref?

on this one Poole landed well short of the natural landing area

Reggie Dunlop

February 25th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^

You should feel that it's an absolute travesty and an affront to the game of basketball.

I don't know what the actual rule is, but Jordan Poole would not have made contact with McQuaid on the original pump fake. McQuaid had to take a step toward the defenseless airborn defender in order to create contact.

If the rule is anything other than an idiotic offensive foul then the rule is stupid and I have no idea why the greater organizational bodies associated with the game continue to allow it. It's a call that continually defies common sense.

See also: Offensive hands to the face in football. AKA the stiff-arm.

 

Saludo a los v…

February 25th, 2019 at 4:24 PM ^

Unfortunately the way the NCAA rulebook is written that was actually the correct interpretation. Poole was not vertical because he jumped and came forward while airborne. If the offensive player then jumps into him the foul is on the defensive player. If Poole had jumped straight up and then while coming down Mcquaid jumped into him to draw the foul it would be an offensive foul.

The problem with the way the rule is currently written is that it allows gamey bs like McQuaid's jump into Poole. That play by McQuaid was dangerous to Poole because he undercut him. They really should reevaluate the verticality rule so that an offensive player cannot initiate contact on a defensive player that is airborne and coming down.

footballguy

February 25th, 2019 at 4:58 PM ^

You are right and people don't understand this.

The difference between what McQuaid did and what Poole did at the end of the game is that McQuaid got Poole to jump forward at him. He no longer is maintaining verticality or a legal guarding position at that point. 

At the end of the game, Poole launched himself into a defender that was standing straight up in a legal guarding position. That's not a foul

What McQuaid did was bush, but within the rules. Poole needs to not bite on those fakes.

SDCran

February 25th, 2019 at 7:10 PM ^

Letter of the rule, sure, I know that.  (and yes, very different from what Poole did, I agree)  But letter of the rule, Winston travels every time he touches the ball.  But common interpretation of the rule Winston is ok (although he pushes it.   He literally took 3 full steps before establishing his pivot foot a few times...step, jump stop where his feet come down very asynchronously so step, step, then another step with a pivot...but I digress)

Is there a common interpretation of the rule that says if Poole lands well outside of any area that would impact a 'common basketball move' that it isn't a foul?  I've sure seen it called that way, and JB was looking for a different call pretty emphatically.  The "Reggie Miller" isn't always called and it is the same thing.

footballguy

February 25th, 2019 at 8:17 PM ^

Yes, I agree 100% with you. I also thank you for pointing out the letter of the rule and the common interpretation.

Like I said, what Poole and McQuaid did were very different plays. What Poole did isn't a foul by any interpretation, and what McQuaid did can technically be called a foul, although in his instance it probably shouldn't have been. 

Reggie Dunlop

February 25th, 2019 at 5:09 PM ^

Thanks, and I'm not surprised. It's so relatively common (and the official was standing right there) that I assumed it had been correctly applied. It's just so illogical.

I've been a huge fan of the verticality application at the rim. That has always been another issue that drove me crazy - a shooter jumping into the arms of a walled up defender and getting free throws. Ball carriers just kamikaze'ing their way to the stripe. Was the defender supposed to move? The recent change has been wonderful. Like you said, it seems like a pretty short walk from that correction to ending the nonsense McQuaid pulled off. 

stephenrjking

February 25th, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^

Poole has talent, but I was expecting a Levert-type leap in his sophomore year and it just hasn’t been there. 

Honestly, the problem is his shooting as much as anything. People criticize his deep 3s and things like that because he doesn’t make them. They’re bad shots. He’s shooting like he’s Steph Curry but he’s not good enough to make the shots. 

Thing is, Michigan’s offense is predicated on taking and making open 3s. He’s not that far from being in line except that his shooting is just not that good. 

Throw in a couple of boneheaded mistakes and you get a pretty bad game. 

I agree with others regarding the hedge. It didn’t work. Teske had to get too far out, and Winston just dissected what was left. 

It’ll be interesting to see what Yaklich pulls out in EL. It seems that Simpson wanted Winston all game long and got it. Putting Matthews on him occasionally seems like an option worth exploring. 

Unfortunately, this seems like a ceiling-lowering loss. People gripe about this or that, but this team is what it is. Other than Matthews being neutralized for the first half it didn’t seem to me that there was anything unexpected in this game; we just got beat. 

bronxblue

February 25th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^

I largely agree, but I don't think it really lowered the ceiling.  Michigan lost to another top-10 team by a close margin.  Neither of these teams are as good as Duke when fully healthy, but like, does anyone look at UVa, UNC, UK, etc. and just assume Michigan couldn't run with any of them?  Is Gonzaga some juggernaut because they are beating up on a mediocre WCC?  

Michigan has flaws; they had different flaws last year and still made the title game.  I still think this team's defense is good enough to carry them, and being down a healthy Matthews absolutely affected this team.  They'll never been a great shooting team and that'll hurt them, but I still think this team could make the FF with the right matchups, and nothing about yesterday demonstrably changed that opinion.

ijohnb

February 25th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^

This is where I am at.  College basketball is really fluid, it all just depends on how teams are playing at certain times and how they bounce back.  You look back to the 2013 team, and a lot of people just remember that team as a juggernaut beginning to end but their trajectory was a lot closer to this team.  They opened up out of the gate on fire, dropped some real head-scratchers including on the road to Penn State, gagged up the Big Ten title to Indiana at home to finish the season and then lost to Wisconsin (while wearing camo uniforms) on Friday the BTT. 

They were a four seed, and like a 10 point dog to Kansas in the Sweet 16.  Then Burke makes that shot against Kansas and then they literally could have picked their own margin of victory against Florida and there was nothing that Florida could do about it.  

 

Crootin

February 26th, 2019 at 8:57 PM ^

I think there are very few similarities between this year and 2013.  That team had multiple elite shooters who caught fire in the tournament and dominated.  Obviously this included a point guard who could single-handedly win the game.

other than both teams have won a lot of games but looked pedestrian and a few of their losses I really don't see any comparison.

Teams that get hot and shoot the net off win in the tournament not teams with defense.  because you can't stop a team that catches fire shooting the ball no matter how good you are on defense.

Reggie Dunlop

February 25th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^

I'm with you.

I think the early throttling of Villanova, UNC & Purdue recalibrated the ceiling at Best Team Ever for most fans. And slowly but surely we've had to walk that back as we have proved to be mortal. It seems like we're lowering the ceiling, but really this is a 24-4 B1G title contender. That would have been more than acceptable preseason.

The unexpected early success threw us all out of whack.

stephenrjking

February 25th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^

These are all good counterpoints.

For my part, the issue is that we're not looking at a team that has a "best" version of itself that is considerably better than what we're seeing every week. It's not like we have a stretch of games where they're shooting 40% from deep and blowing everyone off the court. It's a team that struggles from deep, puts together a good offensive run once or twice a game, plays well on defense, and is better than most teams it plays. 

Honestly, it probably overachieves for the talent mix in place. Iggy has a lot of rough edges, but he's also a freshman. Simpson isn't great from deep. There's no depth. 

I think this will get us when we get into the tourney. I don't relish this, since Michigan in the Final Four in Minneapolis would be a once-in-a-lifetime thing for me. But, honestly, this seems like a team built to be incredible... next season. 

Michigan Arrogance

February 25th, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^

I agree with this and the sentiment in this sub thread. IMO, the Euro trip and Iggy's immediate emergence (with next to ZERO scouting on him in the 1st 10 games) put this team a half season ahead of everyone else. That, plus no scouting on Iggy and having an experienced PG set this team up to look better than most.

Problem is, everyone else caught up, scouted them and Iggy and the M depth is now an issue as they approach game 30.

This is a 7-8 loss team who will get ALL their losses between Jan 15 and March 22 is all.

Given the numbers, youth and talent on the bench and that CM is really the only departure it's next year that looks good. Move Iggy to the 3 full time, Livers to the 4 full time, then the back ups are DDJ at the 1 (some at the 2), Johns at the 4 and Castleton at the 5; just requires someone to step up to get some more time at the back up 2/3. Maybe thats a current FR or next years FR, likely a trasition a la this year at the 1/2 and the 5.

the real concern is 2020-21 when X, Teske and at least one of Poole/Iggy leave early.