Winston was a dude [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Basketbullets: Michigan State Part One Comment Count

Brian February 25th, 2019 at 1:32 PM

2/24/2019 – Michigan 70, Michigan State 77 – 24-4, 13-4 Big Ten

DTE had trucks just sitting on the street yesterday in case the "bomb cyclone" that struck the area tore down a bunch of power lines. I put all the stuff that could blow away in the garage, and then I felt silly when it was just rather windy. I don't think the power went out much, if at all, in town.

So there is really no excuse that the local power company didn't swarm Crisler Arena with technicians at, oh, say the twelve minute mark of the second half. Neither was there a horde of EMTs with defibrillator paddles, or Gandalf and a bunch of horsemen. And this is why you lose a basketball game. The lack of technicians, EMTs and horsemen—who I would like to clarify are men riding horses and not centaurs, that would be silly—is a logistical issue that you can't overcome, and is naturally why a team that rushes out to 51 points in 25 minutes collapses to 4 in 10.

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help

I dunno, you come up with a better explanation.

Okay, I do have one item:

Attacking switches. MSU switched guards onto Teske, like Minnesota. Against Minnesota: layup, layup, assist, and they stop doing it. The same thing happened in this game, at least in the first half. Simpson drove Tillman early; he missed the shot but got a Kobe assist as the ball bounced to Teske on the weakside for an and-one. Livers dumped it down for an easy layup when Winston got switched onto Teske. A third incident saw Teske go to the line.

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this did draw FTs [Campredon]

Michigan then ignored Teske on these plays in the second half. Simpson did get to the line by driving Tillman; other incidents were universally contested off the dribble threes. This was especially brutal because Michigan was going through a ten minute stretch where they scored four points. Michigan cannot threaten to bench people who do not take advantage of the switch but for God's sake let's hope Beilein's glare is especially piercing in practice when this happens.

Guh. I thought most of Michigan's players played approximately in their regular range except Jordan Poole, who probably had the worst game of his career. He fouled McQuaid from three with four seconds on the shot clock; he flopped, leading it to a wide open McQuaid three; he inexplicably left Kithier after a switch, leading to a Kithier dunk; he jacked up step-back threes when Teske was being guarded by guys a foot shorter than him; he shot one three from 30 feet early in the clock.

He hit a couple of desperation shots late, but before that he was 0/4 from three on four tough bad-decision shots. Michigan had to pull him for Eli Brooks during the Great Point Desert, and that about says it all.

This is very much a Sports Talk Radio Hot Take but Poole needs to mature a bit before anyone takes him seriously as an NBA player. His decision-making is a major issue. He's a knock-down shooter when he's getting good rhythm threes but if he's not he appears to be under the impression he will keel over and  die if he goes more than four minutes without a shot.

Going under screens. MSU's first half approach was a bit odd: they went under all screens. Zavier Simpson screens, okay. But they also did this with Iggy screens…

…and even an Isaiah Livers screen; Michigan knocked down 5 of 11 first half threes. They were then 0-fer in the second half until Poole's late desperation shots. Hooray.

When an injury is good for your team. As noted in the preview, MSU is certainly no worse without Nick Ward as long as Tillman can get 30+ minutes. Tillman is a much more mobile defender. Is MSU switching Ward onto the perimeter? Uh…

…no. Tillman doesn't take up as much of the scoring load, but is Ward posting up several times in this game if he's in? Yes. Is he averaging 1.24 points per possession on those post-ups? Absolutely not. MSU's been better with Tillman on the floor this year, and it's not hard to see why after this game.

[After THE JUMP: I do not mention autobench, promise]

Shot volume. Odd distribution of OREBs and TOs given the last decade or so of these programs: Michigan out-OREB'd MSU 12 to 8 but had 9 TOs to MSU's 6. That latter is about right for MSU's defense, but for the MSU offense to have a 10% TO rate is a thing. That's about half their usual rate.

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yikes [Campredon]

Screens slicing M up. The Hard Hedge himself on what was happening to Michigan's defense:

The gameplan was apparently to not let Winston shoot from three at any costs, and that was largely accomplished. The cost was too costly. Michigan would tag Tillman, but Teske would stay with Winston longer than usual and the tagger would not have the same rhythm. So Winston would repeatedly wait for Livers or whoever to recover to a shooter and then hit Tillman, who Teske had not recovered to.

For a period in the second half Michigan was deploying Teske like they used to deploy Morgan: with an outright hard hedge. This was pretty effective at disrupting their action for a while and then it got sussed out.

Obligatory autobench complaint. Matthews got autobenched after McQuaid flailed on a three pointer—the shooting equivalent of a flop. Matthews finished with one foul. The bit where he was autobenched was also the bit where MSU was getting a ton of open looks from three. Matthews ended up having a bad game in part because he twisted his ankle, but hard not to wonder if Michigan could have eased out to an early lead there with Matthews on the floor.

Other bench complaint. Brandon Johns got two minutes at the five in which he got blown by for a bucket and then gave up a shooting foul; Michigan didn't score in those two minutes. I don't get why Colin Castleton, who's actually a five and just played well against Minnesota, isn't an option.

Ditto Eli Brooks, who got eight minutes, over DDJ. Good news: Brooks took a shot. Bad news: it was an off the dribble three that blasted off the backboard without touching the rim. Someone had to come on in the second half when Poole was in the process of losing his mind, but is a Matthews-Iggy-Livers 2-4 lineup untenable?

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this wasn't a charge but it shouldn't have been a foul either [Campredon]

DDJ did get a few minutes. He didn't have any usage on offense but did draw a charge on Winston; he was called for an extremely dubious foul on what should have been a no-call miss by Ahrens. DDJ got in legal guarding position and Ahrens went through his chest for a tough shot. He got bailed out. Good early signs for his defense.

Transition shut off, though? Michigan did shut off MSU's transition game almost entirely. Henry got an early bucket but it was a midrange jumper. The rest of MSU's transition opportunities were the odd turnover here and there, which will happen. Especially when Winston hits Brazdeikis in the arm from behind without a call. We had the same incredulous reaction even:

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[Campredon]

In an otherwise well-officiated game that one stood out. How often do you not get the call on a wrap-around that basically cannot both work and be legal?

Matthewsface. As always:

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[Campredon]

The most expressive face in Michigan basketball history. I mean, maybe, ask Craig about guys from before cameras.

Comments

L'Carpetron Do…

February 26th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^

It's interesting that the injuries actually ended up helping State. 

Earlier in the year I said Michigan would be totally screwed it if they suffered any injury to the top 6 (especially Teske and Simpson). But, lately I've been wondering if their miraculous lack of injuries has actually contributed to their lack of depth. Would a minor injury or illness to Matthews, Iggy, Poole, Livers or Brooks  actually have had a positive effect on the team?  It might have pressed DDJ/Nunez/Johns/Castleton into service and given them competitive game minutes.

There is so much emphasis on the defense now that I think Beilein has been reluctant to extend the bench. But, he has to take a bit of a risk now and basically throw those freshmen into the fire and hope they produce.

BTT is right around the corner and he'll have no choice but to at least get Johns and Castleton some run. No way Teske is playing 35+ minutes in possibly three consecutive games.

(note: please don't take this the wrong way - I was in no way wishing harm on any of our players!)