What’s your temperature today regarding the allegations?

Submitted by TK on October 24th, 2023 at 2:08 PM

I know this place is finicky about topics so I’ll eat the downvotes if they come, but I would like to hear how everyone feels this is going to end up. Opinions on the Michigan side seem to vary wildly. I know Brian has expressed his opinion this won’t be a major issue. Chris Balas update seemed a little more concerning, kind of implying that some at UM won’t have Harbaughs back on this and they would have conversations about his future. Seems like Sams site is more optimistic, but that seems par for the course. And of course the national media is all over the place. Lots coming to Harbaughs defense and many claiming it’s an outrageous scandal. So where do you personally think this will all end up? 

Ham

October 24th, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^

Ultimately, what is going to matter most is if Michigan can keep winning. If they lose to PSU and/or OSU, then the appearance will be that the in-person scouting was the reason for the success of 2021 and 2022. If, on the other hand, Michigan wins the B1G again and especially if they can win the national title, then this whole ordeal will be seen like a bump in the road.

006BOatman

October 24th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^

Hope for the best, expect the worst.  I EXPECT vacated wins and championships in 21' and 22' - hopefully not before if MI can prove Stalions didn't have as great a sideline presence/influence on the games.  After all, even Brian's example of 'minor repercussions' since the NCAA's last post-season ban for Oklahoma St, included vacated wins (Tennesse/Pruitt).  Scholarship reductions, fines too.

Even though I would argue paying for top-shelf recruiting classes (back in the day when it was illegal) affects the 'on-field advantage / competition' muuuuuch more, others won't see it that way b/c the affects aren't in the here and now of a game.  Heck, there's more video today of him literally next to the DC during OSU '22 (I think), spearheading telling the defense to switch formation.

What I really hope is that this season gets to stand in every way, at least a victory against OSU.  But again, I expect it won't since we're too far in. 

Man, I really hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.  The court of public opinion is weighing in and the NCAA will bow to their whims, which probably align with their own anyway.  

njvictor

October 24th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^

I think there's definitely something there in terms of rule breaking, regardless of how stupid the rule is. The biggest questions right now is who knew about it and how it was financed. Not to mention how the NCAA will react. Will they use Harbaugh as an example? Will we get a slap on the wrist like other teams have recently? Will the rule be changed? Another issue is the hit to our reputation and legacy as a program due to the narrative and awful reporting that has come out and if it will cause Harbaugh to just throw up his hands and leave

I Just Blue Myself

October 24th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^

This is where I'm at. This appears momentarily legacy tarnishing regardless of the eventual outcome. I guess my questions are 1.) If this is truly minimally effective, why do it? 2.) If this is legitimately an effective tool, why not ask for ncaa guidance before utilizing this type of method? I'm frustrated with Harbaugh that he (they, them, whatever) began doing this during such a run of dominance. It seems like such a stupid oversight.

I am worried about the fallout should the ncaa deem this illegal, because if we only get a slap on the wrist, or no punishment at all, I would guess everyone will begin doing this, which seems like something they would not want to happen. So maybe they make the punishment more severe than it should be in order to send a message? It's just frustrating that this is going to be talked about the rest of the year and basically add a PR asterisk to every victory. 

NewBlue7977

October 24th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^

I would rather do a scale than a temperature, and mine is 4/10 simply because it was no staff member at these games, and even if it was, you can still steal these signs by watching film of these teams.  Ultimately, Michigan still has to execute the plays.  

Kapitan Howard

October 24th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^

many claiming it’s an outrageous scandal

The word "scandal" is doing some remarkably heavy lifting for those who think this is a big deal. I can tell when I've wandered into an area with low sports literacy because people are calling this and the burger thing an outrageous scandal and that we may not have won all of our games this year if not for "cheating."

So in short, I feel annoyed at stupid people.

Evashevski

October 24th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^

Haters want us to care about this, and at this moment my main obsession and concern is an undefeated season, Go Blue!!

It is so outrageous, I still cannot fathom, I cannot believe that the main rival of the University of Michigan is the main catalyst to an NCAA investigation of the University of Michigan.

 

 

 


 

 

UM_Ftown

October 24th, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^

I think there’s so many haters because Michigan as a whole likes to claim itself as moral superiority to everyone else and then to do a complete 180 the last few years regarding allegations and cheating.

Makes us rational fans confused on who we dislike more, the rival fans being annoying about literally everything or the super loyal fan who defends everything the university does. 

1VaBlue1

October 24th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^

This is nowhere close to an 'outrageous scandal', but it will be made worse that it should be because of the way the Michigan AD operates.  Warde will allow it to fester by not making any statements for any reason - he sure as hell won't back Harbaugh or admonish the NCAA's lack of following their own rules.  He will proclaim that Michigan will cooperate for all its worth and give open access to the kimono.  He'll probably also give up Connor's laptop.

I expect this will be more 'voluntary' games off because Warde is spineless and doesn't back his coach - or the program - one bit.  Never has.  He'll probably try to make Harbaugh apologize for it, too - like he did after 2016.  Nor will he call out how stupid this whole thing is given the cheating the NCAA has already allowed to go unpunished.

And if it gets to that point, Santa needs to bring us a gift because Warde will have proven his uselessness.  Again.  Sure, he can run a multi-million dollar business.  But at what cost?

If Harbaugh bolts, it will be a stain on Warde's hands - and also on Santa's hands.

Carpetbagger

October 24th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^

Yep, this is where I am. I think it's a big nothing. And the NCAA will eventually bring some sort of charges and negotiated penalties that Michigan will comply with BECAUSE Michigan is who they are. If this were any other school, like OSU, they'd tell the NCAA to pound sand in the investigation, laugh at their suggested penalties and eventually settle for a sternly worded statement in the end.

Honestly, I'm more concerned with the Big 10. If the Big 10 tries to hand down a penalty I'd be having some talks with OSU and the SEC. The SEC understands competition is competition.

BlueinKyiv

October 24th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^

Fans would be wise to just focus on the coming games because there is NOT going to be any good news coming soon on this front.  

Don't overdose on he said, she said or how this compares to so and so...when clearly the NCAA bureaucracy plans to carry through (and may have even influenced their decision to not recognize Michigan's proposed cheeseburgate penalties).  

Harbaugh already feels many in university did not/does not have his back....by January, the Harbaugh to NFL hysteria will be at a level that we have never seen previously and nobody (including Santa Ono) is likely to back a $80 million contract in the midst of two NCAA investigations.

  

 

 

truferblue22

October 24th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^

I personally am a worrier by nature. With that said, Brian's article yesterday made me feel a lot better -- however I do think he's a little "too" unconcerned, considering what might be coming. We've seen time and time again that Michigan is NOT treated like equals, there's a special vendetta against Harbaugh in particular, and now the hamburger bullshit -- no matter how insignificant -- makes him technically a "repeat" offender. 

My fears were certainly assuaged by the fact that these types of things take a long time to process, but I still worry some on the CoFoPo committee may get on their high horse and attempt to keep Michigan out over all this shit. ESPECIALLY if there are 5 undefeateds (which there definitely could be). 

So I'm stressed, but not as bad as I was yesterday afternoon. 

Hensons Mobile…

October 24th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^

Not enough info to make a good guess, other than that I do expect this will get wrapped up after the season and we will get penalties. Seems like the only way out of that is if we successfully argue that technically, by letter of the law, no rules were broken. I don't have much faith that will hold up or that we will even seriously try that route.

I also think Stalions gets fired, which means we lose a really good codebreaker, as presumably he was good at this even just through the legal methods. But as I personally hold onto the belief that this is a marginal advantage, not a massive one, I don't worry about that too much. (As I've debated IRL, if we knew every play of every game since 2021 in advance, how did we not win every game 56-0?)

I am not the least bit convinced at the moment that Stalions was just a rogue operator and no one knew. Sure, I'm still hopeful that's the case, but that's not how it smells to me at the moment. So every other Big Ten school knew who Stalions was, was onto him as a cheater, but we didn't know? And how did this information even get to the NCAA? Okay, maybe it's true. I'm just lost on how we got here then. I haven't really read up on the Ryan Day private investigator rumors so maybe that's the answer. The PI was able to sniff out Stalions and we didn't ever find out what Stalions was up to.

All that to say, this could get worse, which I think means worse penalties.

So yeah, I'm bracing for some possible really bad penalties. Probably not a postseason ban, but I could see a scenario where Harbaugh gets hit hard (show cause or extensive suspension). And I have to think vacated wins is very much on the table.

If the news doesn't get worse, then maybe it won't be that bad and the penalties will be much more minor. I hope so. But given that the NCAA didn't even accept the 4-game suspension apparently negotiated over the cheeseburger/improper contact/"lying" violation, I don't really see the NCAA as an organization that is looking to go easy on us.

Colt Burgess

October 24th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^

I'm concerned because I remember Gary Moeller being fired for getting drunk while at a restaurant. Michigan can be so hyper sensitive to bad publicity that I worry they may not extend Jim's contract. Some are worried that JIm will just leave for the NFL, but I think he'd stay to prove everyone wrong if given the chance.

Side Note: I'm sure we all remember Jim Harbaugh saying, "It's hard to beat the cheaters." Does anyone believe he took the If you can't beat 'em, join 'em route? I don't. Harbaugh pushes boundaries, but I don't believe he was knowingly behind an illegal "vast network" of spies. Warde should make him an offer right now to demonstrate his support,

lhglrkwg

October 24th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^

Annoyed. The CFB world has taken the evidence of what Stallions did plus him being on the sidelines as clear and irrefutable proof that Jim Harbaugh was personally expensing Connor for his stuff which is a leap. Im tired of people leaping to that conclusion and stating it as fact. Lemme know when we learn new info, otherwise Im done discussing it

canzior

October 24th, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^

Initially it sucked, but it seems pretty split. Anyone who has played or coached the game seems to think it's absurd. Anyone who writes about the game thinks it's a huge deal. I don't mind the villain role, and since it's not going to affect the current season, and possibly not even next year, I am not really caring. 

But Michigan beating OSU this year is going to cause them to go absolutely bat shit crazy. They've been unsufferable as losers, so for them to lose 3 in a row and then to feel like they've been cheated will be the sweetest shaudenfraude of them all.

LSAClassOf2000

October 24th, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^

I am not worried at all honestly. Unless they can show a paper trail that weaves through the on-field staff and unless they can show that somehow, Michigan managed to turn this into an industry all by itself, if you will, then they have less than shit over a rule they considered ditching because, by their own admission, in the digital age, the competitive advantage was minimal. 

As for the notion that the University would leave Harbaugh high and dry, I have difficulty with that. I cannot believe they would be that insanely stupid, though they've flirted with the idea in the past over different things with different people. 

RGard

October 24th, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^

I'm not bothered at all.  I can't see them vacating wins given they tried that once with Penn State for the Sandusky/Paterno mess and then ended up giving them the wins back.  Stalions is no Sandusky.

Worst case is they try to dock us a couple of scholarships and that will be easily offset by the NIL.

Also, I suspect if they try to punish the HC or the program we're going to see some legal action response directed at the NCAA.

FWIW, the 98.6 "normal" temperature for one of you humans is inaccurate.  Scientifc folks say it's closer to 98.2. Carl Reinhold August Wunderlich came up with the 98.6 in the 19th century.  He used a footlong thermometer placed at your underarm and it took 20 minutes to determine your temperature.

 

Stuck in Lansing

October 24th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^

I am still shocked that this was so stupid and brazen. It is entirely possible to get into a game with an iPhone and grab clips without calling attention to yourself or using a traceable payment method for ticketing.

Hopefully Stalions' work in the military didn't involve any intelligence related activities...

93Grad

October 24th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^

It is impossible to say at this point what the outcome will be, but IMO the following points seem pretty certain:

1) this is a stupid and antiquated rule that was adopted for cost savings and not integrity of the game issues,

2) every major program goes to great lengths to steal signs and I highly doubt we are the only program that pushed the envelope,

3) Stallions clearly did push the envelope here and he seems to have at least violated the spirit of the rule, if not the actual terms of the rule,

4) There appears to be little to no precedence for this, and no clear penalty spelled out in the rulebook,

5) Someone, or or multiple people, connected to the NCAA have it out for Jim and are looking for blood,

6)This is just another reason for Jim to look to the pros next year, 

7) My hope is this motivates this team far more than it distracts them, and

8) The best thing Michigan can do to shut the haters up is win the whole damn thing.

Humen

October 24th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^

There are too many people with no subtlety who chug lead all day. They say things like “two NCAA investigations,” “cheating,” etc., without discerning.  

umfan83

October 24th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^

Trying not to let it bother or concern me, which I've mostly been successful with but any time I pull up a website that covers the broader CFB landscape, seeing all the opposing fanbases having a blast with this and diminishing UM's accomplishments gets me upset.  So I've just been avoiding those places.

WestQuad

October 24th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^

 If TCU did it against us in the BCS I would be upset. If OSU did it in the 18 and 19 games I would be upset.  That said, I have questions.

1. Do "90%" of coaches actually steal signs? If that is true this is a nothingburger

2. What's the deal with the in-person scouting rule?  You can get just about everything through video online these days.  Yes it decreases the work to do it in person, but is that why the rule is there?   Is the rule just to save money?    I don't know this, but I'm pretty sure teams share All 22 film with each other.  OSU might not provide it to Michigan, but Wisconsin and Michigan probably have some sort of film exchange.  

3. Did Stalions really do this by himself without the other coaches knowing?  His work seems pretty ham handed, especially for a guy who went to the Naval Academy.  

4. Is Harbaugh really responsible for a rouge coach according to NCAA rules?   Seems like the answer is yes.

5. Did we actually use the stolen signs to affect the outcome of games?  It seems like this will come out as a slow trickle over the next month or so.  

6.  Is sign stealing really effective?  It must be or people wouldn't do it so much.  It seems difficult to take advantage beyond run or pass or left or right in the time that is available.  That's an advantage, but can't you tell if it is run or pass from the down, formation and what the linemen do in the first 1/8th of a second?  

7.  Not really on the scandal, but I wonder what people are doing with machine learning.  Seems like you could enter all of the sports data, plays, calls, who's coaching, etc. and get a coaches tendencies down pretty easily.  There are about 2,300 plays in a season if you go to a bowl game.  (180 plays a game).  Roughly 50/50 with offense and defense. You could potentially do mulitple years as well.  I'm sure there is someone running these models and if not there should be. 

We're either going to get some major NCAA butthurt sanctions or it will be nothing.  

jaysvw

October 24th, 2023 at 3:05 PM ^

Nearing acceptance that this will be a bad deal for Michigan, formal sanctions or not.  Every day some new piece of evidence (or alleged evidence) surfaces that is all pointing one way, and not towards some magical exoneration of Michigan or their coaching staff. 

At first many people were absolutely certain this was just some OSU message board bullshit, then it was "they don't have names", then it was "no evidence", now its "well gee its not technically illegal, possibly, maybe".  I don't want to cope any more, I just want it to be over.   

I mostly just hate the fact that outside of hardcore Michigan fans, all of the hard earned success this team has had since 2021 is going to come with an asterisk, legit or not, in the eyes of many.  

Perkis-Size Me

October 24th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^

I think I've accepted that something probably did happen and that Michigan will receive some sort of punishment for it, but if OSU was indeed the source of all this, then I hope Michigan is willing to go scorched earth on this and air out whatever dirty laundry they might know about with OSU. 

I'm not naive enough to think Michigan has never broken the rules, but if you think OSU, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, or any other premiere program runs a clean program that's all "by the book," then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. 

On a somewhat more serious note, what this all just confirms for me is what I started thinking about the Penn State scandal, and especially after the Northwestern scandal. No program in America, NONE, is above having a scandal. Don't care if its Vanderbilt, Georgia, or freaking Harvard. If revered figures like Paterno or Fitzgerald can be engulfed in scandal like this, what makes you think Michigan can't, either? 

It's like being stupid enough to believe your kid isn't drinking when they go to college. The day you as a parent are stupid enough to think it can't happen is the day it happens.

UMForLife

October 24th, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^

I kind of accepted that something is going to happen but not knowing what it is, annoys me. However, in a thread yesterday where they pointed out that the timeline can be longer, I have to move on and enjoy the rest of the year.

Truth matters to me and I hate to see people piling on Harbaugh. I think he is a honest person. But, in this day and age, honesty is not what is appreciated.

More than anything, I worry that Harbaugh will leave because UM is not standing up for him. Again, I have told myself to enjoy the season and block out the noise because we may not have a season like this in a long time. Go Blue!

Romulan Commander

October 24th, 2023 at 3:11 PM ^

Towards the end of the summer, when the West Coast teams joined the conference I knew that college football was going in a direction that I might not enjoy in the long run. I resolved to find satisfaction in the play of this amazing team this year. This morning I doubled down on that resolution. I am focused on what has the potential to be the best Michigan football team of my lifetime game by game. Let the NCAA do their worst, I suspect they're whistling past the graveyard, anyway.

modaddy21

October 24th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^

It’s blown way out of proportions. Mostly by rival fanbases, those connected to rival fan bases, and those engagement farming. We need Michigan fans to find videos and pictures of every other team doing the same thing to counter act the BS the haters are posting and publishing. 

LSA91

October 24th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^

I hate to say it, but I agree with Eleven Warriors. Michigan is now a heel program, and I guess I am OK with that.

http://elevenwarriors.com/college-football/2023/10/141992/threat-level-…

Granted, we're a heel program with a golden doodle playing quarterback, clean football on the field, and the team singing "For he's a jolly good fellow," so I still love these guys, but that's going to be our image going forward.

----

More seriously, I now think:

1) Stallions seems very likely to have bought tickets so people could attend games and record sidelines for him. There's a technical argument that maybe that doesn't qualify as "in-person scouting," but I'd bet it will.

2) So the questions are going to be (a) did anyone else at Michigan know; (b) if not, what kind of compliance program does Michigan have; and (c) how much competitive advantage did Michigan receive.  Those are going to depend on evidence that we don't have yet, although Sopwith is welcome to chime in. :-)