We usually lose when we're the underdog (more so than other Big Ten "contenders")
Apologies if this was already "covered" in the thread about the betting line.
- This is the first game since 2017 (vs. OSU) that Michigan has been an underdog.
- Michigan hasn't been an underdog this early in the season since at Utah 2015.
- Michigan last won as an underdog at Northwestern in 2013.
- Michigan has lost their last 19 of 20 as an underdog.
- Wisconsin has won their last two as underdog. OSU has won their last seven. Penn State has lost their last four but won in 2016.
On a separate note, we need a way to be able to wager Mgopoints. Obviously we're not going to get that functionality from HUEL, but if points ever come back, we should figure this out with upvotes and downvotes.
September 16th, 2019 at 7:22 AM ^
I'm not gambling my points! They are a very scarce commodity right now.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
Me neither, I never thought I’d see the day I had more mgopoints than WD.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
Well, if there was any doubt, I think we know who "Drew Henson's Backup" is. Few posters cared as much about MGoPoints as the author of the SuperGuides.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^
Is that WD? I was naturally accused of that in the thread where I advocated for him to get 100 points back. (Side note: It’s still not clear to me that Seth meant for him and Stig to get any points back.)
In any case, I would likely talk about points less if they worked.
September 16th, 2019 at 2:32 PM ^
Then write Seth and ask him to take my points away again.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:29 PM ^
Wow well you literally just joined the site four days ago. I will never understand........O wait it's pretty obvious
September 17th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
No idea what you're saying but I created an alt account so I could sign in on mobile. The apostrophe prevents me from signing in on mobile. HUEL!
September 16th, 2019 at 7:30 AM ^
JH's legacy is that he generally beats teams he's more talented than and never beats teams he's less talented than...like never ever in his 4+ years at UM.
If you go by 247's team talent composite the most talented team he has beaten in his 4 years is 2018 PSU who was #13 when UM was #8 and 2015 Florida when they were #15 and UM was #9. He's never beaten a team ranked higher on the team talent composite than UM, which in all fairness is not many teams (OSU every year, 2016 FSU, and 2018 ND).
September 16th, 2019 at 7:35 AM ^
When your the dog you can't stick with your stubborn ways. You need to scheme and out coach.
September 16th, 2019 at 7:41 AM ^
I.e. what he did at San Diego, Stanford, and San Francisco. He also out-coached and out-schemed a more talented osu team in 2016 and 2017, but came up just short (got little help from JOK).
Yes, he needs to win as an underdog to change the narrative of his Michigan tenure - he needs to get the W against osu and beat a team or two that he is not expected to beat.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
I was not aware Michigan beat Ohio Sate in 2016 and 2017 ? That is very weak. Michigan fans have accepted losing . When you take another blow to the chin what will your excuse be then ? We almost won if not for ( insert excuse here ) Wait till next year !!
September 16th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
You can out-coach and out-scheme another team and still lose.
I would not put the 2016 OSU game in that category, though. Michigan was the better team, and the coaches' inability to net even a single first down in the 4th quarter ultimately put the game in the refs' hands. Pro-tip: You never want to put the game in the refs' hands.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
The coaches didn't make Darboh drop an easy 1st down catch, or cause Higdon to turn a huge run into nothing with terrible vision.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
This is the problem with judging coaches: Harbaugh and staff did call the plays that would have netted first downs, but the players did not execute. Speight threw a slant behind a WR and Higdon cut the wrong way on what would have been an easy first down.
Meanwhile, Meyer and co. get bailed out when they go three and out on their final drive by a PI call...that Michigan does not get when literally the same thing happens on a far more catchable ball in the second OT.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Maybe, in a game played by (kids, young adults, not fully formed adult humans) things go sideways sometimes and not as planned, you knob
September 16th, 2019 at 7:41 AM ^
Double post
winning silences all naysayers.
September 16th, 2019 at 7:45 AM ^
Do you remember any coaching issues that prevented Michigan from winning The Game in 2016 or 2017? For me what was so depressing about last year was it was the first time I thought Harbaugh and Brown got out-coached in that game. You don't always win the games you coach better in. You don't always win the games you play better in. If you're trying to assess in-game coaching you can just look at the wins and losses. Herm Edwards has two wins against Michigan State in the last 2 years. Did you think there was particularly particularly good coaching in those wins?
September 16th, 2019 at 8:14 AM ^
Uh I'd say we were outcoached in 2015 when we lost 42-17 too.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:28 AM ^
5-7 the year before and you expected us to beat the team who won the CFP the year before? Also, it was 13-42.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
Well the spread was 1.5 points in that 2015 OSU game, so I expected us to make it a bit closer. I guess a lot of the blame in that game can go to DJ Durkin, though.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
If I remember correctly, Ryan Glasgow was injured and Ezekiel Elliott simply ran it down our throats in the second half. Kind of hard to coach around that.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:28 AM ^
I’m not sure about that. DJ mailed it in though.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:31 AM ^
In '15, coaching Zeke against our speedy linebackers, while also having Michael Thomas was tough I'm sure.
Remember that score at halftime?
I wonder what outside-the-box thinking led to the adjustment they made, that they couldn't think of against MSU...
September 16th, 2019 at 9:00 AM ^
In 2015 we didn't have an answer for Thomas, Elliot, or Bosa. If you think about it though, that's one of the top DEs, RBs, and WRs in the NFL and they had all three of them on a college team. For Bosa & Elliot their recruiting profiles make sense as they were both top 100 recruits, but Thomas turned out to be much better than his recruiting profile as he was just a run of the mill 3-star.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:50 AM ^
UofM got out played by Angry, Upset Buttnuts who just had their dream season ruined by Sparty, Yost himself couldn't coach around that.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
IDK, when OSU killed UM's dream season last year they didn't respond with a great game against Florida. Those can go either way. OSU made it go their way, UM did not.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:50 AM ^
In fairness, a game against Florida is meaningless whereas The Game is always very emotional and should be a lot easier to get up for, so the premise isn't that bad
September 16th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
Last year wasn't a "dream" season for UofM.
Low expectations after '17, QB new to the program uncertainty, and a huuuuuge rival game to start, that was a loss sending them outside the top20 and y'all to bpone.
They did well to climb back and make the game meaningful but, after that, who really did care about the bowl game? It wasn't going to end the 0-4 narrative and that's basically all anyone cares about anymore.
OSU was defending champion, preseason #1, had 12 players headed to the NFL and were on their way back to the CFP until they got Mork'd. The only thing left for them to accomplish was to embarrass the main rival at their own house.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
Last year wasn't a "dream" season for UofM.
It was before the OSU game. If they win the game they're in the playoffs and have a shot at a NC. All you can ask of a regular season is that.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:27 PM ^
I think the schemes were decent...the talent disparity was too much to overcome without OSU turning it over 4 or 5 times. The defensive coaching was bad.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:21 AM ^
To seriously answer the question, I thought that Arizona State brought quite a few different looks against State and had their offense a little confused about how to attack, particularly in the red zone. I also thought that ASU's final drive was impressively patient and well called, and allowed a freshman QB in a really big spot to utilize his strengths while never asking him to do more than he was capable of. I thought there was a 0% chance that ASU was going to score at the beginning of that drive.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:41 AM ^
In all seriousness, I could confuse Michigan State's offense...
September 16th, 2019 at 6:28 PM ^
September 16th, 2019 at 8:39 AM ^
Well, cutting John O'Korn loose on a deep pass down the middle could have been a coaching issue in 2017 given the score and time left in the game. Michigan needed a controlled drive (if possible)....allowing O'Korn to throw over the middle was game ending.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
Your complaint about the coaching is getting a wide open explosive play? Seriously?
September 16th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
My complaint would be putting a QB into a situation that was over his head at a critical point in the game. The result speaks for itself.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:55 AM ^
Ah yes, the old "it didn't work, so the result speaks for itself" argument. You're talking about the same QB who missed a wide open RB 5 yards downfield on a critical 4th down in the very same game, just minutes earlier. Everything was over his head at that point. And there wasn't enough time to dink and dunk down the field anyway.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:39 AM ^
MSU-related quibble: you don't need good coaching to win if the other team coaches badly enough.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
I thought Don Brown got worked over in 2017 as well. Haskins came off the bench and went 6-7 for 13.4 Y/A. Dobbins averaged 6.7 yards a carry. Yeah O’korn sucked and blah blah blah. Brown has been worked over the last 7 quarters against OSU. That’s a tough pill to swallow.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:04 AM ^
Yeah, agreed. I think Brown was brought in to beat Meyer's version of OSU's offense, ie 2016 Barrett, not Day's version ie 2018 Haskins. I am concerned about Brown matching up against Day. Day seems pretty impressive with his offensive system and play calling and finds way to beat defenses. Brown however doesn't seem to be able to adjust if the pressure isn't getting home.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
Of all the depressing things regarding Michigan vs. Ohio State over the years, this has to be close to #1: Ohio State actually became more formidable against Michigan when their starting QB went out with an injury.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
Do you remember any coaching issues that prevented Michigan from winning The Game in 2016 or 2017?
I don't for 2016 because the narrative for so long has been the 4th down, so I guess I attribute that more to bad luck on the spot. In 2017 I think the coaching and play calling was good in that game, but I do attribute the loss that year to MSU to the coaches not having Peters ready sooner. If he was ready and played in that game I think they beat MSU. Unfortunately however, he was injured so the coaches were limited by what JOK could do, which wasn't much.
All that said I think a bit of it is dumb luck. If you change the 2015 MSU fumbled punt and the 2016 OSU 4th down spot UM has a win against OSU and is 3-1 against MSU. I think that changes the narrative a bit. The other win-able games against good teams is 2016 FSU. They outplayed us, but UM was missing Peppers. I think if Peppers plays UM wins that game. The other is 2018 ND. ND outplayed us, but it was close. If we had just split those two it would feel a lot different. But, we lost all 4 of those and hence the narrative. JH needs a signature win against a team he's not more talented than and/or favored to beat. IMO Wiscy is not enough. He's beaten highly ranked Wiscy teams before. But, he's also way more talented than Wiscy regardless of the rankings. He needs an OSU type win.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
I tend to believe Harbaugh is a good coach because his teams, even when they play poorly, are often still in position to win many of these games (he's had very few uncompetitive losses). Some of the gut-wrenching losses are just ugly and Michigan usually still has an opportunity to win or tie late in the game.
But, on the other hand these games always have a hair-on-fire quality to them and Michigan often looks awful and seems to be playing well below its highest level (ND last year). Even some of the wins have this crazy feel (Army, NW last year).
I believe this is a function of the defense providing Michigan with a huge margin for error each game, which it makes it all the more frustrating when the dysfunctional offense turns these games into erratic, nail-biting, heart-attack-inducing episodes.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^
Absolutely! Having Speight throw from the goal line was a huge coaching error in 2016...without that pick 6, we might win in regulation.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:47 AM ^
In most of those games, shittastic luck worked against UM. I refuse to hold the 2016-17 OSU games against JH. Last years ND game started horribly, but then evened out and was close. Sometimes you lose... The FSU Bowl game was one of the best coached games I've seen from JH.
He's had a run of shitty luck here, after inheriting a dumpster fire and making it win 10 games each in three of his first four years. I want more, but I'm also not going to fire him over a record that is microscopically close to being substantially better.
Some people can just never look at the big picture and be satisfied...
September 16th, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^
He's had a run of shitty luck here, after inheriting a dumpster fire and making it win 10 games each in three of his first four years. I want more, but I'm also not going to fire him over a record that is microscopically close to being substantially better.
I agree with everything you said. And, I would also not recommend firing him. He's done a good job overall. However, the world we live in requires results and JH would tell you the results do not live up to expectations. At some point he needs a signature win over a 2016 FSU or OSU type team in order to change the narrative.
Some people can just never look at the big picture and be satisfied.
The rest I can accept, but I for one will never be satisfied going 0-4 against OSU. I don't care what the reason is, but that's too long to go winless and not receive criticism. You can't just say bad luck on the 4th down call because there were 3 other games too. One bad game (2018), two QB injuries (2017), one bad luck (2016), and one whatever (2015) are too many excuses. The nay sayers will get very loud this offseason if he loses again and it will surely effect recruiting.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:03 AM ^
Harbaugh has been good, but not great. How many more "good" years do we accept? How many more "excuses" are we to create to defend Harbaugh and his team's failures in the biggest moments?
There's no doubt Harbaugh has taken Michigan from the dumpster fire of Brady Hoke and even Rich Rod Era's. Harbaugh has restored pre-season hype. We are far more optimistic heading into a game then we were years ago.
Harbaugh had wild success during his days at San Diego, Stanford, and the 49ers, but that was during a different period of football. Harbaugh appears to be playing catch up. Harbaugh was considered an offensive wizard. Well known for strategies and play-calling. Where is it? We're in Year 5 of Harbaugh's tenure and we're stuck with a first-year OC, who had never called a play until this year. Ask to revitalize an offense that he was unable to established years prior. That's troubling.
There's also no denying Harbaugh has failed to win the biggest games. 0-4 against OSU. 1-3 in bowl games. No division titles. No B1G title game appears. Harbaugh has failed to use that "QB whispering" magic of his to develop a star QB. In fact, you could argue his QB's (minus Rudock) have regressed during his tenure.
If Harbaugh ends the season with another loss to OSU and a disappointment bowl result, I think the birds start chirping even louder.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
I'm always amazed at how so many people take for granted what Harbaugh has accomplished; as if any random top-50 college football coach could accomplish what he's accomplished in his tenure at UM.
Honestly, over the last 5 years and holistically, what program would you switch places with? Alabama?... sure, why not. Clemson? OSU? Sure, if we hold our nose a bit?
I'm as frustrated as anyone over the failure to win the "big games" on the road But due to the consistency Harbaugh has created (and we've taken for granted), we're only underdogs in vary rare cases when our opponents have reached some rarified air. News flash - those games are difficult to win.
Would you trade one of these big wins for an offsetting loss to an opponent we should crush like Purdue?
September 16th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
He's accomplished many things. But, his criticisms all come down to one thing...OSU. He can't win a division title, let alone a conference title without beating them. He has to find a way to win once in a while. This discussion won't stop until he does, and rightfully so. I don't think he'll get fired if he can't, but his reputation will take a hit.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
"Sometimes you lose" 0-4 vs OSU, 1-9 vs top 10, 1-3 in bowl games, 2-7 vs rivals.