We usually lose when we're the underdog (more so than other Big Ten "contenders")
Apologies if this was already "covered" in the thread about the betting line.
- This is the first game since 2017 (vs. OSU) that Michigan has been an underdog.
- Michigan hasn't been an underdog this early in the season since at Utah 2015.
- Michigan last won as an underdog at Northwestern in 2013.
- Michigan has lost their last 19 of 20 as an underdog.
- Wisconsin has won their last two as underdog. OSU has won their last seven. Penn State has lost their last four but won in 2016.
On a separate note, we need a way to be able to wager Mgopoints. Obviously we're not going to get that functionality from HUEL, but if points ever come back, we should figure this out with upvotes and downvotes.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^
Your posting these records is getting old and deliberately lumping all rivals together to make the record look as bad as possible gets a big yawn because it is obviously the 0-4 record from OSU that skews it. And everyone is keenly aware that Harbaugh is 0-4 against OSU. Thanks for reminding us again.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Harbaugh is 0-14 in games he has lost at Michigan. Completely unacceptable!
September 16th, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
He also has winning or at least .500 record against every one of tier 1.5 Big Teams (i.e., the next level behind OSU: Wisky, PSU, MSU--ok, not Iowa: 0-1, I think), which is massive turn-around from the (almost) 0-fer of seven years prior. So, how many ways are there to say it: his job was to rescue the program and return us to competing for championships & at least occasionally beating OSU. Job 1: done. Job 2: not -- we hope: yet!
September 16th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
I'd argue he either coached at or out-coached OSU in 2016 and 2017, just didn't have the horses at the right time. Nearly beating OSU with John O'Korn is pretty damn impressive.
I'd also like to point out that barely losing to ND and FSU (one on the road, the other neutral field), the latter in large part because of one of the dumbest kick returns I can remember, aren't "bad".
September 16th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
That’s the problem. This fanbase has convinced themselves to be happy with lots of “almost” wins and has found excuses for all of them. State went down to Columbus a few years ago and won playing their backup QB. O’Korn not being good enough to do the same is on Harbaugh, completely, and on his failure to develop quality QBs here.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
The true answer lies somewhere in the middle. It wasn't just O'Korn in 2017 (though it's arguable if he was even the #2 QB, as Speight and Peters were both unavailable). It was also that the OL was in shambles and the best non freshman receiver was ... Grant Perry?
I think Michigan fans are "happy" with the "almost" wins in Harbaugh's early years because of the situation he inherited. Michigan didn't even make a bowl game in 2015. Heck, Rutgers thought they had a chance in 2016 because they had actually beaten Michigan before. In came Harbaugh who righted the ship with a 10-win season. Great!
But he really needs a statement win, and soon. It's Year 5.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
He was their third QB by that point; that's hard for any coach to handle. And yes, MSU won a game with their backup QB; that was also an MSU special in so many other ways (terrible weather, OSU inexplicably only running Elliott 12 times, etc.). Listen, I wish OSU would look past an opponent and shit the bed against UM like they seem to do every year against somebody else, but they don't.
And they aren't excuses; Michigan still lost those games. But in a lot of these games we're talking about coin flips and sometimes a series of them going against you are just a sign of randomness that could correct itself at any moment.
September 16th, 2019 at 5:58 PM ^
Ohio State won the national championship with their third string QB. And wtf is an "MSU special"? If you truly believe that State has some special kind of "luck" that controls the weather and muddles the thinking of opposing coaches, you don't understand college football nearly as well as you pretend to. Dantonio is a very good coach who knows how to win games he shouldn't win with inferior talent.
And yes, those are excuses. At some point (soon, if we're not there already), "bad luck" becomes a less likely explanation than a combination of sub-par recruiting, player development, roster management, in-game adjustments, play-calling and clock management.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
That's been my general sad feeling toward Michigan football forever. How often does Michigan actually play above themselves and beat a better team? There have been very few times in my fandom (13 years or so) that Michigan has gone up against a clearly better team and pulled off the upset. There are no Hunwick-ian performances, no John Beilein coaching his 3*s to the top, no baseball team getting scorching hot. Football never seems to overachieve in that way
September 16th, 2019 at 7:59 PM ^
Michigan is in a position where other teams always "get up" to play them (Iconic helmets? Moral/intellectual superiority? Program prestige?) Even when UM is an underdog, teams seem to focus give it their best...for whatever reason.
I could list a bunch of examples, but we all remember the Rutger game in 2014 where the Fighting Kyle Floods rushed the field after beating one of the most underwhelming teams in program history.
As it is, UM doesn't ever have the luxury of sneaking up on teams...even when talent indicates that Michigan could be an easy win.
September 16th, 2019 at 7:32 AM ^
Yeah, but how do we do when we fumble once, or less. I like our chances in Mad-town
September 16th, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
Yep. Stop fumbling the ball and everything will be just fine. Both the MTSU and Army games would have looked completely different with better ball security.
Shea fumbled more in the first two games than he did all last season. Clean that up, put some glue on the receiver's gloves, and we're a top 10 team.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Isn’t fumbling on a consistent basis a part of what makes a team not very good?? Why stop there? Why not say just score more and we’ll be fine. Or just stop the other team from scoring and we’ll be fine.
September 16th, 2019 at 7:43 AM ^
September 16th, 2019 at 7:59 AM ^
Frustrating thing about this game is that I think our offense is more talented than Wisconsin's in this game outside of the obvious with Taylor. Our defense had a tough test last game and held up their end (like they usually do). We have too many weapons on offense, but until we do out best to utilize that talent then we won't win these games against tougher opponents.
I believe that the Army game was a fluke and Michigan will come out and win this game against Wisconsin Saturday to put themselves back on track for a successful season.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:33 AM ^
I wouldn't be suprised at all if the pass rush looked good against a more traditional offense and QB. I'm actually kind of expecting it too.
I don't think there are too many defenses on the schedule that can run with UM's skill guys over and over. But that is assuming UM is aggressive and modern in their play calling.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:36 AM ^
Re: the offense being more talented than WI, is that with or without our 3 starting OL who may or may not be out with injury? And DPJ?
With Runyan-Bredeson-Ruiz-Onwenu-Mayfield and Hayes available, all full go, I agree. But if Runyan is still out, and if we're missing another very talented OL as rumors may have it, then it gets a lot closer. In that case I'd say they beat us at RB, also probably at OL, push at QB until we see an uninjured/improved Shea, we win at WR. We'll see. I hope everyone is healthy.
September 16th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
"Outside of Taylor" is a pretty fucking large caveat.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:04 AM ^
When was the last big road game we won?
Harbaugh’s results don’t exactly inspire confidence in Madison.
Our win @ #24 MSU last year was our first win against a ranked opponent on the road since like what, 2006?
Yeah, it’s not going to end well.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:18 AM ^
"Harbaugh can't beat a ranked opponent on the road."
/beats ranked opponent on the road
"Well, besides that one, when is the last time we've beaten a ranked opponent on the road!"
Also, didn't Michigan overcome a large deficit to beat the B1G West Champs on the road last season?
September 16th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
Negative Nancy's will be Negative Nancy's. IMO it all boils down to 0-4 against OSU. If he beats OSU this year it will all go away. If he loses again it will continue until he does. IMO that's warranted criticism, not to the point of suggesting a coaching change, but enough to question why he can't beat them.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
The bye week came at a great time for the team, but a horrible time for the fans. A pallet cleanser after Army would have quelled a lot of worries.
We have a huge game coming up against a great opponent. Two top 15 teams, both with B1G Championship aspirations. An opportunity to go on the road and push back against some narratives that haunt (but also pre-date) the Harbaugh era, and instead of being pumped up, we get ice water dumped all over the team, constantly. This shit permeates the entire internet. How do you think our players feel that the fans aren't even excited for this game. That we are just waiting to shit all over them after another big game loss? Or even fans just waiting to crap over the team after another win because the offense looks clunky.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
So, our last big road win was last year in East Lansing. A couple of weeks after another big road win against eventual BIG West champion Northwestern.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:44 AM ^
So this is what is has come to.....clinging to wins over 9-5 Northwestern teams (that lost to Akron and Duke)?
September 16th, 2019 at 8:50 AM ^
You can be all upset and UNACCEPTABLE if you want but we are rolling into Madison this weekend and winning so that is making me happy.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:52 AM ^
It has come to overlooking that to make it look worse and is to what some are choosing to Pete-ishly cling.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:53 AM ^
There's nothing wrong with losing to Duke. They just beat six time bowl eligible MTSU and made it look easy. I've learned on here that we should all be impressed by that.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:25 AM ^
I love when people blame Harbaugh for patterns that have dated back to 2006.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:29 AM ^
Ok, don't tune in then.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
This sounds like what Brandon sent to you.
Ha. More WD idiocy.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
Here's an idea - how about you just abstain from WD? A little self-induced blocking, if you will. We'd all be happier, because everybody is tired of your petty bullshit. (And his - he should abstain from you, as well...)
September 16th, 2019 at 5:22 PM ^
I'm not going to be spending anymore time on people who don't deserve it. I wish there was a mute/block feature on here because there are a handful who I would use it on in heartbeat.
September 17th, 2019 at 5:52 PM ^
There is a mute feature on the site. It's called a scrollbar.
BUT, if you're going to be an ass,
don't tune in then
expect to be called out on it.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:36 AM ^
Too true.
More often than not they play not to lose. They absolutely can't be digging any early holes.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
Harbaugh didn't start coaching here until 2015 but it's his fault that the previous eight seasons produced zero road wins against ranked teams. Got it.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:07 AM ^
We could barely beat the crappy teams during those years and more than half the time, we couldn't! (2011 excluded.)
Damn, that Harbaugh!!!!
September 16th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
Including the last three years of Carr, three years of RR and four years of Hoke, we were 73-53 over that decade. That’s some terrible football (other than Carr’s 11 win team and Hoke’s 11 win team). That’s what Harbaugh inherited. He needs to win big games - he hasn’t won enough of them, mostly against OSU - but the clown show we were running from 2005-2014 was far worse. Only one win in that decade vs OSU (under Hoke vs Fickell). So yes there’s real Harbaugh angst and things he needs to be held to account for but there’s a lot of historical angst being taken out on a team that’s 2-0 and while looking shaky still has to play the next 10 games before we actually know what they are
September 16th, 2019 at 8:04 AM ^
For me its going to come down to how well we cover one on one down the field. Wisconsin is always Wisconsin, they are going to try and run and do play action off of that. We will utilize our front 7 or 8 depending on their alignment to stop the run, it's what happens downfield that will determine the game. With single coverage, we have to avoid drive sustaining pass int calls due to the fact we are aggressive. One thing I have noticed this year is that Taylor is being utilized more in the passing game.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
Yep, we will see how many flags we get for def. PI. IMO it's a huge part of the matchup.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:54 AM ^
This is fair... I'll take Hill covering Bo Cephus all day, but Taylor scares the shit out of me. Why is he allowed to catch passes? Why did UW's coaches figure this out? Dammit!!
September 16th, 2019 at 8:13 AM ^
Vegas doesn't "predict who will win." They want even money on both sides of the line to collect the vig. Michigan fans (generally) have more money than other teams' fans (see EDSBS charity drive every year).
If Michigan fans are putting up more money in bets than other schools, it stands to reason that Michigan lines are generally inflated by this trend. Then we can assume that Michigan is not an underdog as often as it should be, and when it is, the line is closer than it should be.
This doesn't mean Michigan shouldn't be able to win as an underdog. It just makes it a bit harder.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:21 AM ^
This is a good point. Furthermore, even when OSU weren't favored they were almost always the more talented team and was only an underdog because they were on the road or a because of a betting overreaction to a previous week's results. Lastly, the OPs stats dont account for the magnitude of the "underdog." Being a 1-3 point dog on the road is a very different than a 7-10 dog at home or on the road, something the pre-Harbaugh teams experienced much more frequently than OSU.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:27 AM ^
Hit it on the button. Blue bloods have a tendency to get over valued in Vegas because average bettors put more money on them. Most of these games happened under Rodriguez and Hoke so I put little value in it.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
God, this comes up every time there's a thread with a betting line in it, and it's so obviously not true. If it was true, don't you think smart betters could just always bet against teams with large fanbases and be rich?
The reality is that casual betters are only a small portion the money that is bet -- it's mostly sharps and large gambling syndicates. And that's always why the betting line is just about as predictive as any other measure as to total outcome.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
I thought about making this same point in the OP but then realized OSU has won 7 in a row as an underdog.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:13 AM ^
Harbaugh's 5 losses to ranked teams on the road were... Both OSU games, '17 Wiscy and PSU, and I think that Utah game.
Bet real money against them if you believe that will always be the case.
Your winnings will be the team giving back to you.
Otherwise, you don't fully believe they're going to lose and mentioning all this leading up to the game is either extremely helpful to you and the team you're a fan of or...
Edit: Somehow forgot about Notre Dame from last night to this morning.
My thing is, what's the point in Michigan fans remembering and regurgitating unfavorable stats.
I can see many reasons why other teams remind us though.
The 2019 class is 2-0 this season headed into a (for now) big game for this season on Saturday. That's it, until the next big game.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:17 AM ^
Utah was unranked. The 5th is Notre Dame to open last season.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:18 AM ^
Team generally starts slow and tense on the road. Have to come out aggressive from the start to stand any chance. And stop turning the ball over.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
I just don't want to see Ronnie Bell be the main WR target throughout the game. Nico Collins was 7 inches taller, and 37 pounds heavier, than the DB covering him for much of the Army game, and Nico is known for making contested catches. Seems like he should have been targeted until Army wised up and started doubling him--and then you make Ronnie Bell your primary WR target.
But who knows.