We usually lose when we're the underdog (more so than other Big Ten "contenders")
Apologies if this was already "covered" in the thread about the betting line.
- This is the first game since 2017 (vs. OSU) that Michigan has been an underdog.
- Michigan hasn't been an underdog this early in the season since at Utah 2015.
- Michigan last won as an underdog at Northwestern in 2013.
- Michigan has lost their last 19 of 20 as an underdog.
- Wisconsin has won their last two as underdog. OSU has won their last seven. Penn State has lost their last four but won in 2016.
On a separate note, we need a way to be able to wager Mgopoints. Obviously we're not going to get that functionality from HUEL, but if points ever come back, we should figure this out with upvotes and downvotes.
September 16th, 2019 at 2:32 PM ^
That '16 was absolutely loaded. It most certainly did not overachieve. That was the most optimistic I've ever been about a Michigan football team coming into the season - I'm usually very pessimistic about Michigan's season outlook but that year I had them going 11-1 with the only loss being to OSU, of course. That should have been a CFP year for Michigan.
September 16th, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^
Point where in the question going into a game was?
Road game against higher ranked team who was favored by 3.5? Not sure "should have won" fits that scenario.
But that's the point, getting to that game as the #3 team, just a 3.5 pt underdog, in Harbaugh's first 2 years was an over achievement in itself.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
2017 OSU. I didn't think they'd be anywhere near OSU y the end of the game with JOK at QB.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
"Michigan has lost their last 19 of 20 as an underdog."
I know most of this predates Harbaugh, but that's a terrible-looking stat regardless.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:04 AM ^
Nice bye week to reset expectations. Zero clue how this game will go because nobody knows what Michigan is at this point. It should be an interesting watch to say the least
September 16th, 2019 at 10:04 AM ^
I'll take M plus 3
and bet all my points.
Go Blue.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
This is a really bad stat but I wonder how much of it is just a retelling of the OSU losses using a different stat. How many of those 20 losses as an underdog were to OSU?
Also, how far back do you have to go to get 20 games as an underdog? My guess is we're still trying to dig out from under the RichRod avalanche of bad stats.
I suspect a lot of this comes down to beating OSU. The same with Harbaugh's "inability to win a big game on the road." I'd say that beating MSU at East Lansing is a big game regardless but for many it is OSU or bust.
As for OSU winning their last 7 as an underdog, OSU wins lots of games. Any stat about winning games will have them winning lots of games. Although, I would be interested to see what the 7 games were and how getting shut out by Clemson in the playoff in 2016 didn't factor in. Were they favored? Is it "better" to lose when you're the favorite?
September 16th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
Bingo. People are stupid. This is a nothing stat. Harbaugh has been an underdog 6 times. We are 0-6.
- His first game on the Michigan sideline @Utah.
- 2015 OSU - the Durkin'ing
- 2016 @OSU - ********JT was short********
- And the three losses @PSU, @Wisconsin & OSU in 2017 with O'Korn/Peters.
Everything else was a Brady Hoke production and who gives a shit. Let's all cry about it. Michigan has been an underdog 6 friggin' times in four years of Harbaugh. We were an underdog 17 times in four years under Brady Hoke (3-14).
There's your stat.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
Thank you for clarifying this! Much better to look at things this way...
@Utah in game 1 - took it all the way to the end with a chance to win. A good opener on the road, in a tough place to play.
2015 OSU - Durkin mailed it in, Ruddock got hurt, and it all just sucked.
2016 OSU - Forget a bad call, there were about 10 bad calls! Game was taken...
2017 UW - Peters got nerfed when the game was very much in doubt late in the third; lost all hope when JOK replaced him (the team was visibly shaken)
2017 OSU - JOK at QB. Should've lost by 37, yet still almost won!
I said in a different post that JH has had shitty luck here, and 5 of the 6 underdog games bears that out.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
I think we'll see a Michigan team that will unpack Gattis' new offense and blasy Wisky on their own turf. It will be a wonderful win. At least that's my take on it.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
The "usually" stat that concerns me for this week is our habit of having key offensive players out with injury when traveling to Camp Randall. Our four straight losses in Madison have had...
2005 - Mike Hart out
2007 - Mike Hart out, Chad Henne out
2009 - Not fair to count this one since the only team we beat the last 8 weeks of the season was Delaware State.
2017 - Wilton Speight out, Brandon Peters leaves game.
And right now there's fears about Runyan, Peoples-Jones, Patterson and endless others if internet rumors are even close to being true. This is getting annoying.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
It’s football...the odds of you being completely healthy across the board week in and week out is slim to none. You have to come to play, your brothers on the team have to step up in your absence. That’s why football is the ultimate team game!
September 16th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
Runyan is a problem because Harbaugh has done a poor job recruiting and developing OTs, so he has only freshmen as backups. Patterson has not been well coached enough to run this offense, and McCaffrey is not good enough to replace even an injured Patterson. DPJ would not be a problem if our offense were capable of using Collins, Black and Bell to the fullest.
It’s not a matter of luck. The teams that can overcome injuries even in big games recruit better, develop players better and use them better.
September 16th, 2019 at 3:08 PM ^
Any team will suffer a drop on offense if you remove the starting LT, arguably best WR, backup RB, plus the potential starter at RT, and then throw in a lingering/hampering injury to the QB.* In isolation, yes, teams need to overcome injuries, but that is an awful lot of players to be missing in action to start the year on just one side of the ball that is adjusting to a new scheme.
*This still does not justify the results against Army.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
Michigan plays scared to lose too frequently. They need to come out play like they did against Tebow and Florida for once.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
My goodness that was such a wonderful game. And honestly, that's probably the best game / most satisfying win we've had in over 10 years, outside of (C)Hoke's win over OSU (tainted though it was knowing it was 6-6 Luke Fickell).
Lloyd Carr on the out, people consistently upset of his '3 yards and a cloud of dust" style of offense, Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow...and Michigan walks in and drops the hammer all over Florida and does so by torching them with the passing game.
What a win. Good times...
September 16th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
Dont forget the SEC speed myth. Big Ten was too slow to compete with the SEC. We come put 4 wide and shred them.
Wasnt as close as the score indicated.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
Yup! So satisfying to beat the SEC at their own game.
That game gave me so much enthusiasm for what the future of Michigan football would look like under Rich Rod.........talk about a disappointment :/
September 16th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
I would have won a ton of points on the Army game. I think someone literally offered to bet me money on that one.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Here's the last 30. Lines drawn to separate coaches.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
Man, it's almost like Hoke was a disaster of a hire.
September 16th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
Less than 5 years ago, UofM was a road dog to Rutger.
Let that sink in ......
but they covered ...yay
September 16th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Everybody is reading this as a condemnation of Michigan coaching...
But the reality is that these are betting lines, and the dumb money always overrates / overplays Michigan.
Michigan's cover rate as the favorite isn't very good either, and it's the same reason.
Bottom line, Michigan isn't going to get points in the spread unless they are very obviously the worse team. I'd actually say this game in Madison might be a better than usual chance to win as an "underdog" because the line is overreacting to Michigan's Army escape and Wiscy whaling on a couple nobodies (doesn't Wisconsin do that every year?).
September 16th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
100% correct.
I'll take it a little further: If there was ever a time Michigan comes out and destroys a ranked opponent on the road it would be this Saturday. I don't even think Michigan has to do much different than what they showed in the first half of each game so long as Patterson is healthy or the coaches just go with McCaffrey because Patterson is hurt. Couple that with the return of Runyan + DPJ (maybe Wilson?) and fumble luck regressing to the mean...
Meanwhile, Wisconsin is in the Penn State/Maryland boat of looking great against ineptitude.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
What is the point of going back to the Hoke era? All that is relevant is how we've done under Harbaugh and even then, if we haven't been an underdog in two years, it's not that relevant.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
It's a new season and we're 2-0. What's happened in the past is instructive but not determinative of what will happen Saturday. I don't think Michigan will win, but I don't think it's a longshot either.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
I may not be seeing what I think I see, but I have observed a lack of fire over and over in big games; an attitude; an 'I want to murder you' intensity in total effort on both sides of the ball. I believe there is a lack of fire, and the 19/20 stat does nothing to change that opinion. It would be nice to observe a team that plays all out, every play, every snap, no matter the opponent. That attitude comes from coaching, and coaching players that are capable of marshaling their deepest energy toward effort.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:50 PM ^
Pure, immeasurable nonsense.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
I think this trend of M being on the losing end of games in which they're underdogs is not necessarily indicative of anything that is based on relative talent, coaching or even luck. I would contend that this is endemic of the culture of the Michigan fanbase, which when acting collectively, is sufficiently large, well-moneyed and overly-optimistic so as to move a betting line in such a way that it makes M a betting favorite in games in which the teams themselves are evenly-matched or M is even a slight underdog. When it gets to a point where the betting line registers M as an underdog, the actual expected statistical margin after adjusting for the cultural-bias in the betting line, is much larger, by a good 4 points I'd say.