We usually lose when we're the underdog (more so than other Big Ten "contenders")
Apologies if this was already "covered" in the thread about the betting line.
- This is the first game since 2017 (vs. OSU) that Michigan has been an underdog.
- Michigan hasn't been an underdog this early in the season since at Utah 2015.
- Michigan last won as an underdog at Northwestern in 2013.
- Michigan has lost their last 19 of 20 as an underdog.
- Wisconsin has won their last two as underdog. OSU has won their last seven. Penn State has lost their last four but won in 2016.
On a separate note, we need a way to be able to wager Mgopoints. Obviously we're not going to get that functionality from HUEL, but if points ever come back, we should figure this out with upvotes and downvotes.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:58 AM ^
Bell has 3x as many targets/catches than Nico has, and what about Black? I mean, they feature Bell far more than anyone else! I don't know if its because Collins/Black are always covered tightly, Bell is always open, or Bell is actually the #1 WR. I just don't know...
September 16th, 2019 at 9:08 AM ^
I think it is more that DPJ is the #1 receiver and Bell was been running his routes thus far while DPJ recovers from [????????].
September 16th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
I think it's because Collins is running deep routes more often, and Brian is right Patterson isn't GoingBigOrGoingHome enough because he doesn't want to turn it over. That's one area where I think Harbaugh still has an influence on the offense. 2016 PSU is the best comparable for Michigan's offense, and there's a lot of hope there given how they improved, but Moorhead was clearly give the green light to throw it fucking deep all day if that's what he wanted. What the hell does Franklin know to tell him otherwise.
I would love the same approach by Michigan, and we've been gifted the perfect WR in Collins to do that. I'm hoping we see that vs. Wisconsin.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
Everybody is (rightly) screaming "COLLINS COLLINS COLLINS"!!! I contend that Black and DPJ can do the same thing Nico does - get open deep and catch everything. I'd really like to see 4 verts used more than once/month...
September 16th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
UM doesn't show up in a lot of big games. Hopefully they get their shit together and play with some fire this weekend. Usually we get "meh".
September 16th, 2019 at 8:26 AM ^
Holy shit is that depressing. 1 win 19 losses as the underdog.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:32 AM ^
The one time Wisconsin has decidedly had a better team than us, they hit us for a gawdy 325 yards and 24 points.
They’ve averaged 15 points and 256 yards on Don Brown defenses. They’ve yet to score 30 on offense under Chryst against a top 20 defense.
28 points scored and none given to their defense will win this game.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:10 AM ^
and yet I'm awakened at night in a cold sweat that this could be the year Paul Chryst, upon receiving a blow to the head in a freak-bratwurst accident, remembers how to coach and doesn't do something Chryst-ian like arbitrarily stop running Taylor for no apparent or reason or be completely caught off guard by our QB actually pulling the ball for once. It's not going to be the year, right, Doc? Tell me it was all just a bad dream.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
It will not be the year, dear child. Paul Chryst has eaten too much cheese forever and will never make sane coaching decisions again. We will win or we will defeat ourselves. Wisconsin will not beat us.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
They sure as shit look better the Michigan. I admire your foolish confidence. Who has it better then us ? lets start with Wisconsin.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:19 PM ^
I'd be happy with a 14-13 win.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:43 AM ^
That, aside from being 0-4 in the one game that matters, is Harbaugh’s legacy here thus far. Beat the teams you’re supposed to beat (most of the time), and lose to the teams you’re supposed to lose to. But that’s not just Harbaugh. Honestly when was the last time Michigan won a game it was not remotely supposed to win? ‘08 Wisconsin?
Not saying the expectation should be for him to go on the road and beat top-5 opponents every year, but at some point your team just has to break through.
September 16th, 2019 at 8:51 AM ^
2009 Notre Dame. Kinda sorta 2011 Notre Dame.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:15 AM ^
Honestly when was the last time Michigan won a game it was not remotely supposed to win?
When was the last time Michigan was even in a game in which Michigan no chance of winning? This is a perfect example of how facts can often get in the way of a good negative narrative. That’s kind of the thing about being a program like Michigan — you’re pretty much expected to win every game you play, and if you’re an underdog it’s usually a very small margin or to a team like OSU.
But, this doesn’t stop Michigan’s own fans from building a ridiculous narrative about Harbaugh’s failures as a coach. Last time it was going on the road to beat a ranked opponent, they do it TWICE and then — like someone already said above — those down count because LOL Northwestern and MSU LOL and the goal post keep getting moved.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
Look, there's a huge faction of the fanbase that expects Michigan to win 90% of the games, beat OSU 50%+ of the time, and take home a B1G title every other year.
If that's your bar, Harbaugh is a terrible coach and everything is shit.
Now nevermind that's not based on really any level of consistent historical reality, and even if we WERE doing that, in the years where we lost the OSU game those same people would still be losing their minds.
I don't think Harbaugh has done enough because I'm tired of the thuds at the end of every season, and can be rightfully criticized for a few things, but too many people have their expectations set at a level where about three dirty coaches on the planet could have this team.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
The OSU losses are the problem. When I was growing up, Bo, Mo, and Lloyd lost plenty of games, some in WTF fashion against teams that had no business beating us.
But we beat OSU more often than not. For me, and I suspect most other fans, 8-4 with a win against OSU is a better season that 10-2 with an OSU loss.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
Yeah but you're a rational one, Hatter. I remember those seasons too - watching us drop turds against non-cons we should have beaten just because they had a running QB and inexplicable losse to B1G team we were better than....there was plenty of rabble rabble against the coaches. We just soothed our wounds with the bowl games and the (far more often than we do now) wins vs OSU. Carr was 6-7 vs OSU. it felt good for those 6 and it sucked for those 7. Michigan football isn't what many of us imagine it to be. Hell I'd take 6-7 for Harbaugh vs OSU in a heartbeat, but even that isn't going to get that faction of the fanbase to chill the f*$k out and enjoy football for football's sake.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
you must be old as dirt. I am 60 and OSU is 34-22-3 in my lifetime.. But i get it .It was competitive from 1970-1999
September 16th, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^
Born in '77. During the first 23 years of my life we beat or tied OSU 17 times, won a bunch of Big 10 titles, and a National Championship.
The last 15-20 years have been exceptionally painful for fans my age.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
I don't think that anybody believes we are going to win the BIG every other year. I would really just like one appearance in the BIG championship game at this point. Northwestern and Nebraska have played in the damn thing.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
"Northwestern and Nebraska have played in the damn thing."
Interesting... it's almost like those are examples of teams that Michigan is consistently better than, yet they have made it to BIG championship games. I just wonder why that could be...
September 16th, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
MSU has won it as well.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:46 AM ^
There's a world of difference in making it from the West Division like Northwestern did. If Michigan was in the West, we'd have made it a few times. I know Nebraska was in the Legends with Michigan at the time they won the division, but they got 70 points dropped on them in the championship game... I'm not sure that feels much better than not making it.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
There's a universe of difference between "win the B1G every other year" and "win it once in 20 twenty years".
September 16th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
bingo...
not sure what the expectations are... "CFB playoff every year"? I don't think anyone is that dumb to think Michigan can do that.
Harbaugh is getting criticized now because of the dud last year, a year which a lot of people had circled as "our year"...looked good after the early ND game then ended with a thud with two bad losses to the year.
its Year 5 now, and Michigan hasn't even won the B1G east or B1G championship, much less the CFB playoffs or national title...
IF Michigan was able to win a B1G once every 4 years, i think there'd be plenty of people ok with that...sure there's always malcontents who'd want more, but the CFB landscape has changed.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:01 AM ^
+1 for using functionality and HUEL in the same sentence, coherently!
September 16th, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
Functionality and HUEL in the same sentence is an oxymoron.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:17 AM ^
Purdue wasn't favored against OSU last year?
September 16th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
OSU has won their last 7 as underdogs? Do you know which games they were? That just doesn't seem right.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:40 AM ^
Well in a depressing look back, they've only lost 9 games in the last 7 years....
They were small favorites in that schelacking they took at the hands of Clemson a couple years back, so that doesn't count against them. They were big favorites when they lost to Oklahoma in 2017.
They basically aren't the favorite pretty rarely, and i'm guessing it's very close. I don't recall them overcoming some huge odds against them so my guess is they are games where they win as 3-7 point dogs.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^
- Sept. 29, 2012: Ohio State 17, Michigan State (-2 1/2) 16
- Nov. 17, 2012: Ohio State 21, Wisconsin (-2 1/2) 14, OT
- Nov. 8, 2014: Ohio State 49, Michigan State (-3) 37
- Dec. 6, 2014: Ohio State 59, Wisconsin (-4 1/2) 0
- Jan. 1, 2015: Ohio State 42, Alabama (-9) 35
- Jan. 12, 2015: Ohio State 42, Oregon (-5) 20
Those six plus the debacle against us last year.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:13 AM ^
Here are the last 7 times OSU was an underdog (all of these were with Urban as coach):
- 2012 at MSU (-2)
- 2012 at Wisconsin (-1)
- 2014 at MSU (-4)
- 2014 vs Wisconsin (-4)
- 2014 playoffs vs Alabama (-7.5)
- 2014 playoffs vs Oregon (-6)
- 2018 vs Michigan (-4.5)
The lines were never massive, but they did win all those games.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:18 AM ^
So really, nearly half of it can be attributed to "Cardale Jones was way better than anyone thought."
September 16th, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
I think it was more "What if we just give the ball to Ezekial Elliot a million times?".
September 16th, 2019 at 9:35 AM ^
To me, all of the, "We haven't X for Y number of years, or, since Z" are simply ways of saying that we had a period of time where the football team struggled to get the results we wanted.
In my mind, there are sufficient differences between this team and those prior teams that bringing up or relying on those observations is of minimal value at best.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
When was the last time Michigan Football overachieved? When was the last time they really surprised you in a big game?
September 16th, 2019 at 9:53 AM ^
The 2013 OSU game.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
And still lost ?
September 16th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
2016 Penn State. I did not expect to roll them 49-10.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
2018 Wisconsin: I did not expect them to win 38-13
2018 PSU: I did not expect them to win 42-7
September 16th, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
Almost all of last year before the last 2 games: everyone forgets now, but going into 2018, there was a lot of resignation around here that this was going to be a down year--unless O line massive turnaround, unless D somehow replaced productivity of record number of NFL draftees, unless Patterson was massive uptick on previous QB play right out of the box, unless... Last year was almost all over-achievement after game 1, until revealed as not all-that-either in the end.
This year: expectations & pre-season ranking super-high somehow despite that finish to last year? How? B/c new OC was going to come in and massively upgrade offensive output, right out of the box, even though we had no running back (unless the recruiting hype this one time actually panned out in a(n injured) Freshman right out of the box --- YAY!!!). Defense wasn't going to take massive step back losing 2 best DE's, LB, & DB we've had in some time? I just don't get it. I just don't understand how the pre-season outlook for this team was so high. If they somehow do get back to 10+ wins again this year: it's a friggin' miracle -- that I will absolutely ENJOY THE HELL OUT OF!
September 16th, 2019 at 10:07 AM ^
Columbus 2016
September 16th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
Really?
Michigan was two touchdowns better than OSU that year. That game should not have been nearly as close as it was, and we definitely should not have lost the game.
September 16th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
If my Aunt has balls she would be my uncle You lost fool
September 16th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
If my Aunt has balls she would be my uncle You lost fool
September 16th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
If my Aunt has balls she would be my uncle You lost fool
September 16th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
I know that. We were the better team but lost the game, so I am not sure how he would conclude that was the last time that Michigan overachieved.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
Being "2 touchdowns better" than the nuts in Columbus, in Harbaugh's second year, with QB Spieght and Hoke's little underachievers ..that's not overachieving?
I guess when you change narratives depending on the breeze you have to constantly move the finish line.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
I am changing narratives? How do you figure? The question was, going into a game, when was the last time a Michigan team really overachieved in that game? You can say that they overachieved to be in the position that they were, fine, but they were in that position. The defense was incredible and Speight had been very good all year with the exception of the Iowa game. We had the two best players on the field, probably the three best. We lost the game. I don't think that is overachieving.
You respond like I was being critical. I wasn't. Michigan had a better team than OSU year that year, they should have won the game and they didn't. That is not overachieving.