Post-Spring Practice: Early 2018 Michigan W/L Prediction

Submitted by OaklandInPlay on
With Patterson eligible, it’s debatable that this team is more talented than the 2016 team led by Jabrill. Sept. 1 -- at Notre Dame Sept. 8 -- Western Michigan Sept. 15 -- SMU Sept. 22 -- Nebraska Sept. 29 -- at Northwestern Oct. 6 -- Maryland (Homecoming) Oct. 13 -- Wisconsin Oct. 20 -- at Michigan State Oct. 27 -- Bye Week Nov. 3 -- Penn State Nov. 10 -- at Rutgers Nov. 17 -- Indiana Nov. 24 -- at Ohio State

goblue16

April 28th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^

I really don’t know. Shea is a big question mark and I have no clue how he fits in this offense. His eligibility at least gives me hope. Before this announcement I thought we would win 9 games aka a shit storm of a season. Now I think we can break through and get to Indy. The season can’t get here soon enough

SkyPanther

April 28th, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^

One thing that is not obscure to see about Shea Patterson is that Speight/O'Korn/Peters never played like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avA7PuG-e2U

Some will say, Yeah but, that was mostly against inferior teams. But I do see Alabama and Auburn mixed in with those highlights. It looks like he pulls off big plays against whoever he faces. And besides that, did we ever see Speight/O'Korn/Peters play like that even against inferior teams?

 

What a quick release Patterson has!

UMfan21

April 28th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^

I will say 10-2. team looks much better, offense looks balanced. they will still have work to do before they are a playoff team.

DeepBlueC

April 28th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^

+/- 1.   With 9-3 being more likely than 11-1.  OSU, MSU and Wisconsin all were better than us last year and return a lot of their talent.  The chances of us going 3-1 against those three and Penn State, and also beating ND and Nebraska and not losing any games we shouldn't, are not huge.  Every position group on offense would have to develop well beyond expectations to run the table.

DrMantisToboggan

April 28th, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^

Counterpoints: MSU was not better than us, we were an average QB away from beating all of them, and we return close to as much as MSU, more than UW and OSU (MSU returns most everything, Wisconsin and OSU both lose chunks of their defense).

Bodogblog

April 29th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^

And MSU getting shitcanned against OSU in a game they could have lost 70-0 if Meyer hadn't called off the dogs at halftime? They played a team without their QB and WRs, the bowl games mean very little. I think the teams were even last year, and that MSU will be very good this year. But we're adding a QB to that team, while they already had one. Michigan should be better. And if Michigan gets a +5 turnover advantage, they'll win by 3 scores.

DeepBlueC

April 28th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^

with a resounding bowl win.  We were 8-5 with an embarrassing bowl loss.  They beat us on our own turf, when we had two weeks to prepare.  And we didn't HAVE an average quarterback, and they had a better than average quarterback, so yeah, they WERE better than us in the real world.  The world the way you wish it would have been doesn't count, sorry. And they return more than we do, as you admit.  

SunDiegoBlue

April 28th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^

We say Harbaugh is under paid. We were c+ QB play away from 10-2 last year (with youngest team in the country). People forget Harbaugh style can be low scoring ground out wins. I think the run game gets good enough to take down even B level teams on the schedule this year with how good the D will be. I don’t care about road games when you are bringing that Defense with you and run game. D and run game travel. High flying passing not as often. 11-1

kurpit

May 1st, 2018 at 11:03 PM ^

Speaking truths that people don't want to hear
 
Vote up!
1
 
-1

will get you labeled as a troll on this board.  But it's possible to be realistic and still be a Michigan fan.  You don't have to predict a NC every year to be one.

 

You just commented that you don't have to make crazy predictions to be a Michigan fan but now you say Harbaugh should be making the playoffs every year. You're the one setting an unattainably high standard.

JOHNNAVARREISMYHERO

April 28th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^

Need to be at most 1 conference loss heading into the shithole. That conference loss absolutely under no condition can be to msu (especially considering the two recent home debacles). Spare me the fucking road game bullshit on that one. The Notre Dame game is one of the least important games in terms of the focus on winning the conference. There is no way in fucking hell equal time should be spent preparing for that game over any conference game. That game is the freebie. So if that is a win, that makes other non-freebie games even more crucial.

Bodogblog

April 28th, 2018 at 10:25 PM ^

Can you tell me how you see This? MSU is going to be very good. On the road. But they were equivalent teams last year and Michigan adds an elite QB. PSU loses a lot and is at home. Same with Wiscy (I believe, not as sure on them). OSU is a beast but they also lose a lot. I think Michigan was the better team, very slightly, the last two years. I think they will be this year as Well. 9-3 seems reasonable, hopefully only two of the losses in conference and The Game is for the BEast.

Durham Blue

April 28th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^

11-1 B1G with the only loss at NW.  Trip to Indy.  Win.  But we get F'd out of the playoff because of the crappy loss.  Bowl game win.  13-1 overall and a #3 final ranking.  I believe this is the season where we turn the corner from the disappointing past 10 years and start dominating again and beating OSU with regularity.

SkyPanther

April 28th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^

NW got beat badly by Penn St at home last year. And they went to triple overtime with Mich St at home, with Mich St outgaining them 540 to 432.

 

I don't know that NW is going to beat Michigan this year, if for no other reason than Michigan's defense is going to be more experienced and stronger than last year. But with Ed Warinner, JIm McElwain, Shea Patterson, and with Higdon and Evans having 1 more year of experience, the offense is going to be better than last year too.

OwenGoBlue

April 28th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^

Football is too much of a batshit, low-sample sport full of injuries for me to feel confident in individual game predictions but I think this team is very good. They’ll make the playoff or narrowly miss it a la 2016.

Perkis-Size Me

April 28th, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^

I don’t know. Football is a crazy sport. This team is arguably more talented than the 2016 squad but so much of the offense is unproven. The Big Ten is better than it was two years ago, and all three rivals are in the road.

Not at all worried about the defense, though. If the offense can get to average, and if the defense maintains the status quo, this is potentially a 10-11 win season. If it’s anything more, then the sky is the limit. If it’s more of the same, we’re maybe staring at another eight win season. Maybe even a seven win season.

Call me a pessimist but I can’t predict us to beat OSU until I actually see it happen. They just have a huge psychological edge in that game. They could be down 28-0 and still realistically believe they’d win. And they wouldn’t be crazy for thinking it.

UofMfanINcolumbus

April 28th, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^

Only two games I think will be a real test are Wisky (maybe not even 100% sold on them) and Ohio State just because we get fucked in Columbus. Notre Dame is trash, Penn State takes a step back without Barkley, Michigan State is the same team that's not better than Michigan but figures out a way to win. I believe if the Oline is even 15% better than last year and Patterson stays healthy 11-1 or 12-0. It's been too long for the Maize and Blue. I feel a good season upon us. Go blue.

kurpit

April 28th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^

I expect 9 but 10 wins is achievable. Patterson isn't exactly a polished qb. He turns the ball over a whole lot. Wide receivers are still almost entirely unproven. Ridiculously difficult schedule. They'll drop some but still be a strong team. Hopefully they'll be good enough that they can actually win a big game on the big stage (OSU, NY6 bowl, B1G, etc.)

sum1valiant

April 28th, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^

I dont think it's fair to say that he turns the ball over a lot. He has a career 2:1 Td to interception ration. He threw 6 picks all of last year, with 5 of them coming in games that his team was getting clobbered and he was forced to throw the ball against teams that knew he was throwing the ball. He has a career 141 QB rating. For comparison, our QBs last year combined for 1:1 ratio and roughly a 112 QBR.

WichitanWolverine

April 28th, 2018 at 5:20 PM ^

I'm somewhere between 9-3 and 10-2. We went 8-4 with abysmal QB play last year. Even if Shea is average, our defense should be able to carry us to at least 9 wins. The biggest question marks are OL (is Warinner going to be able to bring the improvements we're hoping for?), QB, and whether we can replace the production that Hurst gave us. Our defense should be solid again and our RBs and TEs are good enough to win the conference. I expect a big improvement in the WR corps with Black back and a year of maturation for DPJ.

So gun to my head....10-2.