Late-Game Play Calling/Strategy v. OSU

I agree that we could have been more aggressive once we got into field goal range.  Not sure about going for it on fourth down, but I definitely would have liked to see something more creative on the third down play - a jet sweep or a QB RPO.  

I also remember the Lloyd days and there were way too many games that we dominated throughout only to lose at the end because we settled for field goals.  

Myself personally I would have been playing for 4 downs there. You get another 1st down and it's ball game on the backs of your oline. But it worked out so all is good 

They play call on third down and 6 was too conservative.  Third Base saved his time out (for reasons I do not understand) so the clock was going to stop in any event if we missed the first down.  Third Base also had what seemed like 11 in the box gunning for Corum so something else had a much better chance of success.  As you indicate a first down would have ended the game and would have ended it in legendary fashion.

I would have gone for the field goal on fourth down.  With a minute and no time outs, a touchdown is a much less sure thing than a field goal.  The pressure to score ultimately led to the bad throw that ended the game.

Sherrone chose "What would Bo do?" and fortunately it worked for us and it is the Bucknuts who are sulking.

The last 4th down was a difficult call.  Literally 50/50.  I wanted them to go for it in real time.  However, upon reflection, I think it was the right call, and not just because it worked out.  My reasoning is that if OSU stops Michigan on 4th, they have 1.5 minutes left.  Even without any timeouts, almost their whole playbook is available to them.  All they need is 3.  I actually think that makes it MORE likely that they get themselves in a position to be within striking distance of a Harrison dagger.  With them down 6, no timeouts, they simply can’t run the ball so it takes away a big part of the field you have to account for.  They have to take chances through the air, which they do, and ultimately turn the ball over.

I think UM expected to get the 1st down on 3rd and 6 by running the ball.  I think the worst case scenario they envisioned was a 4th and short that they would go for and convert.  Credit where it’s due to the OSU DLine making the play.  UM also had every reason to have faith that their D could defend the field for 60 seconds, so taking the 3 points to make OSU need to score a TD was a calculated risk that made sense.  
 

Big Time players make Big Time plays in Big Time games.  Harrell flattened some 4 or 5* OLineman and hit McCord, disrupting the throw and Rod Moore was in position to take advantage.  The play previous, Wallace forced either an INC or a fumble, he just didn’t get the bounce he deserved.  Bottom line, this team (and the two before it) are different than those teams, so you can’t dwell on negative ifs.  Revel in the reality of the positive what is.

Re: the last drive: I'm definitely kicking by the time it's fourth down.  I don't want OSU to be able to send us into overtime by only getting to my 30 yard line.  

I did not like the call on third down.  It seemed very unlikely to yield a first down.  I think Klatt had a good thought that a run-pass option for JJ made sense.  I'd be interested to hear Coach Moore's explanation for handing off to Corum as he did...To be clear, this is the smallest of nitpicks at this point.  I will try to bear hug Moore if I ever see him in person.  Whether security stops me is another question.

I don't know what the analytics would say but rewatching the game last night when we got to the 3rd and 6 play on our final drive, it seemed clear to me that running the ball and making OSU use their final timeout was the right move.

Our running game gives us a decent shot at getting a first down (or TD), and if we don't get it then we (likely) turn a 3 pt. lead into a 6 point lead, thereby forcing OSU to drive 75+ yards for a TD against our great defense, on the road, with the crowd roaring.

You are correct that they moved the ball quickly downfield and having Harrison makes a huge difference. But the fact that McCord threw an interception due to our pressure on him was one of the likely ways that we end the game. It's all hindsight, of course, and Brian stated clearly on this week's pod that he wished we called a play on 3rd and 6 that was more likely to get a first down, but based on my rewatch I'm very glad that we didn't do so.

I hated the Semaj throw behind the line. Too far of a throw and poor blocking always blows those up. My initial thought was go for it on that last 4th down, but I thought we squandered yards the first 3 plays and that 4 yards would probably be a difficult get and was ok with the FG.

I agree with you - I think going for it on 4th there would have been preferable. Get it and you end the game, OSU never gets back on offense. And the only difference if we fail is that OSU can tie with a FG.

But I think the bigger strategic error was calling a straightforward run on 3rd down. OSU didn't call timeout after second down, which was an error on their part. Even if we threw incomplete, letting OSU have a timeout on offense isn't a big deal, as it would probably only save them 10-15 seconds. But again, a completed pass ends the game. Or even if you don't want to risk a pass, a fly sweep or a JJ keep probably has a better chance of getting the first down than pounding Corum up the gut again. A gain of 3 and a loss of 3 are pretty much the same result, because either way we're kicking a mid-length FG.

Yeah I’m convinced that with Harbaugh on the sidelines, both the PSU & OSU games have larger margins of victory. There definitely felt like a lot more conservatism on offense than we’re used to seeing with Harbaugh the last 3 seasons. It cannot be overlooked how difficult it would be as an interim coach (who’s just taking over temporarily until the head coach can get back which is an unprecedented situation) to make an overly aggressive call that ends up being the reason you lose the game so I get it and don’t blame him for it; it’s a really hard spot to step in. While much has been made of him being aggressive by going for it on 4th down thrice, they were pretty obvious decisions with them all being in plus territory and 1 yard or shorter to go (one of which was 4th & goal form the 1 inch line). I was convinced we were going to be on the wrong side of an instant classic when we gave OSU the ball back with a chance to win it. I’m glad it all worked out and now we get the head ball coach back before the playoffs for a shot to go win it all.

I get your point; we see this a lot in the NFL. A team gets a lead but leaves just enough time for the opponent to march down and win it.

Yes, like you when the pass from Donovan Edwards was complete to Loveland, it seems like the team would punch it in for a TD and basically ice the game.

CJ Stroud is clearly much better a QB than McCord, and in the two prior victories Michigan maintained a solid cushion - while his final drives were all snuffed out, Stroud was never as close as McCord was with only 6 points to tie, and 7 points to win.

But maybe that's the difference, McCord couldn't pull it out; he used up what little magical intangible pixie dust in the Notre Dame game. Marvin Harrison was his usual great self but were the other receivers as good as the 2021 set?

Let's see what the UFR reveals about those final series.

We have one of the best defenses in the country. Moore knows that, and trusted them to close out the game. Kicking the FG to force OSU to drive the length of the field for a TD with 1 minute on the clock was absolutely the right call in that situation.  

Of those you reference, I think the first series play calls could be faulted (I didn't like the screen pass to SM). 

The ending series, while maybe not ideal, is completely defensible given the time left and that you are forcing OSU to get a touchdown vs a FG.  If you go on 4th and don't get it (and I think coach Moore was tempted), OSU has a short field to get a FG and could still get a TD to win (you have to play tighter on D to protect against a FG, which opens up chances for a big play TD).

3rd down fake bubble screen really needs to be added to the playbook.

Everyone wants ultra aggressive play calling until you get failed attempts. If we go for it on the last fourth down instead of going up 6 and OSU drives down and kicks a FG to tie it and we lose in OT you feel the same way? 

IMO you play to your team strength which is running ball and defense and you pick your spots to be ultra aggressive.