Late-Game Play Calling/Strategy v. OSU

It is easier said than done. If we threw the ball there and had a pick-6, would you feel the same way? I am not a fan of rehashing what we could have done.

I expect Harbaugh to do something similar as well. Remember that Harbaugh comes from NFL mentality. He doesn't care if we win by 1 or 30. 

With your best OL in the hospital, I think conservative play call is a good choice. Best choice? Dunno. But I dread the possibility of a turnover. What was missing was our ability to blow them off the line on our first and second down run plays. I attribute the play call to the reality. 

The fickle nature of football and fans . . . Sherrone did turtle too much on the 3rd and 6 at the end IMO, and handed the ball over to Ohio State with more than a minute left and without Will Johnson on defense.

OSU got all the way to the Michigan 37 and still had around a half minute left.  If OSU had driven the field for a TD you would have heard a 100% different narrative:  Sherrone Moore is not ready for the big time, Ryan Day has now completely fixed what was wrong with Ohio State.

One play flipped the narrative.

I am thankful it went in our direction, because it could have gone the other way.

FG time. 

 

On the next drive, without Will Johnson, OSU pretty easily marches down the field and scores. We're now up just 3.

Exactly.  We took the field goal to go up ten and create a two score lead.  If we give a turnover there the game is tied after ohio marched the field on the next drive.

We won because ohio threw two interceptions and we didn't.  Stop this delusion that passing is just risk free extra yardage.

Would have liked to see 2 different plays:

(1) On the Semaj bubble, OSU had it out-manned to that side of the formation prior to the snap.  Would like to have seen a 2nd play called that JJ could have audibled to.

(2) On the last set of downs on our final drive, I would like to have seen a more creative run play called on 2nd down, something to the perimeter.

Moore ran down the clock and trusted his defense. 

It worked.

We won.

I disagree slightly. Going for it on Fourth and failing would mean giving OSU even more time to potentially come back and win it all. You know they would have emptied the bag and done whatever was necessary to get MHJ the ball. Yes it's conservative, but the way the last two drives were ran were specifically targeted at bleeding as much clock as possible due to the new rules while still putting the team in a position to get points via FG's. 

At the end of the day, the cards fell as they were supposed to. Michigan showed it doesn't matter if Harbaugh wasn't on the sideline. It doesn't matter if Stalions isn't around anymore and Michigan "doesn't have the signs". It doesn't matter if our best OG and CB aren't playing. They were still the best team on Saturday. I know a lot of people got nervous once they had that great drive to tie it at 17. I wasn't. I knew the mettle this team had. I knew they would come back and prove that the last two years weren't a fluke. And I know they're going to do their absolute best to win the next three games and win a National Championship. 

Interesting that the line moved from 23.5 to 21.5 against Iowa. I wonder why? What does Vegas know?

Kicking the FG was the correct answer. Down 6 and only a minute to go curtails some plays, as someone mentioned. I think much easier to defend mostly passes. OSU would rather go to the boundary for a quick catch and out-of-bound to stop the clock. Michigan was aware to guard that as well. 

We were conservative to eat up their TOs. You have the best D in the country he had trust in the them to make it happen.

I probably would have sent the kicking team out in the huddle and then did mass subsitution by sending the O back out just to see if i could get them to jump or catch them out of position. E

I'm with you on the play calling after the Edwards pass. We should have been much more focused on getting a TD. I'm sure when they called the Morgan screen they felt very confident it would be an easy pickup but obviously they miscalculated. I didn't like how we got to the 3rd and 5 in the first place.

As for the last drive, my only complaint is those last three runs felt like they were very vanilla and I would have liked to see some kind of misdirection at some point. But even though to us it looked very basic, if you read Seth's Neck Sharpies, it shows how there's a game going on within the game that is way too granular for us to see during the game, unless you're a total football savant.

But I definitely would 100% support going run, run, run, FG at that point. I definitely felt better about our defense stopping McCord going 75 yards in a minute (or 81 yards in 55 seconds as it ended up) than I did about converting the 4th and 4. A shorter field, a few more seconds, a FG being an acceptable option to them...no thanks. But yeah, I got a little concerned after that completion to Flemming.

3rd and 6 on the last drive. Let JJ get the first down. Give him a rollout pass with an opportunity to run for it. Let your QB deliver the dagger. If it's an incomplete or otherwise more than a yard short, hit the FG. That's my only real beef with playcalling.

The third down play to backward James drew my crazy fan ire at the time and upon full reflection:

I still hate that play call and design with a fiery burning passion. 

I recall being happy with the whole drive, but when Blake got that last 1st down, it felt like the next 3 plays were fully embracing a run-run-run-kick mentality. I wish we'd have been more creative there because it would've ended the game but it's a minor nitpick

On the last drive, I think you also have to consider that OSU isn't that deep on the defensive line and Fox really helped them out by going commercial-one play-commercial on the first two time outs.  Before that Michigan was really mashing and all of sudden OSU had time to catch their breath a bit.

I'm in general agreement that we should have been more aggressive, and I suspect there's a more persuasive case to be made for that on the next to last drive.  The level of control (or at least opportunity for control) of the game that Michigan had doesn't seem to be reflected in how close the score was for most of the 4th quarter. 

OSU - and the media - seems to be focused on how close this game was and how changing a few plays might have easily changed the outcome of this game.  Change a few plays (or play calls) in the other direction and this could have just as easily been a 2TD game (or maybe even 3 if Michigan goes up 2TDs on that next to last drive).

I think the field goal was the right decision considering we were 4 years short. I wasn't aware in real time that Johnson was out until later in the drive when I didn't understand why he wasn't on Harrison and noticed he wasn't out there at all. I still think that was the right move even so with it only being one minute, just have to make extra sure you have a second guy glued to whatever Harrison is doing.

If the 3rd down play gets us to 4th and 1-1.5 my opinion changes and I think that would have changed Moore's opinion too. In fact, I think the play call on 3rd down was with the intent of getting it close enough to go for it and it just didn't work out. You can complain the play call was too conservative even assuming going for it, but we had been pretty successful on that drive up until that point running the ball so I don't think it was absurd.

Definitely would have liked a little more creativity on the previous drive to get the TD following the Edwards pass though. We ended up chewing 7 minutes up on the next drive, but that was by no means a likely thing to happen and would have been much happier with a two touchdown lead instead of just two possessions.

This is easy to see in hindsight, but if Blake The Great had gone down 1 yd shy of the first down on his first down ~13 yd run, it likely would have taken more time off the clock.  2nd and 1 instead of 1st and 10.  Then, maybe you even take a semi-kneel down on 2nd down to set up 3rd and ~1 to end the game (with a fresh set of downs).

I had no problem with the fga on 4th … you make them beat you by driving the whole field for a TD !!! What pissed me off temporarily lol was that pass behind the line to Semaj … I knew it was going to him as soon as the formation set and the nuts knew it as well… one of the few bad play calls by SM , the other being the swing pass to DON to the boundary which was telegraphed all the way !!! 

For what its worth, when OSU started the final drive, ESPN app had Michigan as 94% win. So your 50/50 gut feeling was about 10x worse than what the stats suggest. 

As for the last drive, I was totally fine with how it rolled out and ended. At 805 left, I was just hoping for at least a few 1st downs and at worst a punt inside the 15. The drive opened with a sideline pass to CJ, something Lloyd would never have done. Lloyd had at three times being in similar situations (up by less than a TD) where he faked a FG and pooch punted with his Kicker.

1998 RB vs Wazzu, up 21-16. They drove to our 30 (albeit helped with an egregiously ignored Off PI against Woodson that gave them 40 yards). We win thanks to the clock running out.

2005 home vs PSU. Up 3 points. PSU drives the field for a TD in under 2 minutes. If not for Henne to Manningham, we drop to 3-4.

2005 home vs Ohio. Up 18-12, LC calls for a QB draw by Henne on 3rd and 9. We get a FG. We give up a quick TD and drive the field up 21-19. 3rd and 10, LC calls for a WR screen that gets us 5 yards. Rivas lines up in FG when everyone in the stadium knows it's a pooch punt against a stiff wind. We punt to about the 12. Ohio and Troy Smith slice us up bit by bit and then the Gonzo freak catch at our 5. We are forced to let them run in a TD or risk losing game on a chip shot FG. We lose.

I've sat watching too many games (Lions, UM, etc.) where a team is up by three and the opponent drives down the field into FG range and then can take some shots at the EZ. That's the sickest feeling of all. Knowing they have pretty much tied us and are playing for a win.

If we couldn't stop Ohio with 105 left and at least 75 yards and no TO's, we didn't deserve to advance to Indy. 

Would like to see something more aggressive on 3rd down but thought the field goal on 4th & 6th was the right call.

I think we suffer from comeback disaster scores being highlighted.  We remember all of the times that a team had a chance to come back like this and did while we forget that there are probably 20 counterexamples where the comeback fell short.  

ESPN had U of M with a 95.9% win chance with 70 seconds left in the game.   Even after the non-reception/fumble to Fleming at the 41  win probability was 84.7%

OP is exactly right. Sherrone deserves a ton of credit for the overall gameplan. But he turtled at the end, and he's frankly a little lucky the decision didn't blow up in his face. The better play on that pivotal final 3rd down would have been to operate as if you've got 2 plays to make up that yardage -- something M was likely to accomplish given how worn down OSU's defense was (and given that we'd be defending without our best CB). If given a good chance to salt a game away, while denying the opponent any chance to rally, you really ought to take it. On top of that, running Corum up the middle was definitely not the best way to convert that 3rd down. Be bold.

On the 3rd and 6th, I would like to have seen a pass with JJ rolling out so he would have the option to run

(I am not a coach and hadn't even played Madden in about 10 years)

I think the thought process might be a little like this: Turn it over to our fantastic defense; they are as responsible, or more, for getting us here as our offense. As they say on Rez Dogs: 'Stoodis. 'Sgo.

It felt very Lloyd ball.  The 2nd and 3rd down calls should have been run to keep the clock moving but with more creativity.  An outside run, JJ read option, jet sweep, etc.  

Doesn’t matter since we won, but yes, felt a bit turtle and my heart didn’t need the anxiety of the final OSU drive.

No, kick the FG on 4th down. If you go for it and don't get it, then OSU can tie the game with a FG. Being up 6 forces them to go for the TD with only a minute left, which causes chaos and mistakes with having to run longer-developing plays to drive the length of the field. We banked on our D-Line and LBs being able to run over their O-Line and McCord not being able to handle the pressure. We got pressure on him multiple times in the last drive, and it paid off with an INT.

That said, I wanted to see something slightly more creative than running up the middle three times to get the 1st. 

I too thought the decision to turtle and go up by 6 could backfire. Maybe a TE pass to Loveland off play action would be wide open. If you fail you still kick the FG and go up 6.  Glad we won but that sure was a nerve wracking ending 

As others have alluded to, I think the real mistake was the vanilla play-calling at the end of those last two drives. We get to their 20 and 25-yard lines, using a more varied mix, and then we turtle and run up the middle on 5/6 plays (with the exception being the Semaj screen that got blown up for a TFL). So six plays went for a total of six yards (1st and ten at the OSU 20 and 25 ended up 4th and 10 at the 20 and 4th and 6 at the 19). We didn't necessarily have to do anything crazy, but at least varying up the play-calling (running outside, running JJ, something like that) would have given us a better chance.

But I feel like kicking was the right call. Requiring them to get a TD, instead of allowing them to tie with a FG, is just too valuable in my mind...

I would have went for it on 4th and 4. A first down ends it. Roll JJ out so he can run or pass.

Even if we don't get it they still had to drive 80 yards and it likely changes OSU's dynamics from needing to go for it on 4th down (if up 6) to most likely be willing to kick a FG.

I'd guess a 50% chance of picking it up outweighs the negatives of missing out on an extra 3 points.

I don't really chafe at any of calls except -- as many have said -- the call on the last 3rd and 6. Bad in so many ways:

• Not that Michigan can't get 6 yards running the ball, but everyone knew what was coming.
• Many instances of Michigan history tell you not to turtle in this situation.
• JJ is the best Michigan QB in recent memory AND he has tons of experience. You at least give him a chance to win the game with a first down -- made more likely because OSU clearly was playing for a Corum run.
• As said above, a first down wins the game. That warrants something more than what is expected.
• It's the OSU game -- there should have been a tendency-breaking play kept aside for exactly this situation. I'd like to know if there was one, and if Moore just lizard-brained it.

That said, I had no problem with kicking the FG on the last fourth down.

It was a huge gamble. Luckily it came out our way but I’ll tell you it was an unpleasant feeling in the stadium on those 2 big pass plays before the INT. 

I was at the game, and said maybe a bit louder than I meant to after Michigan ran on their last offensive series on 3rd and 6 that I didn't like the choice and wished we'd given McCarthy a chance to end the game. Brian freaking Griese - who I had no idea was there - turns around from two rows in front of me and shakes his head at me, I guess disaproving of me being negative in an important moment. Really weird moment for me. Tried once to get his attention just to tell him I was a big fan of his as a kid, but he didn't turn around and I just left it and went back to the game. Anyway, so I guess there are opinions on both sides lol 

>I know people will disagree, but I for one absolutely would have gone for it on fourth down on the >last drive in order to end the game then and there. 

I do disagree with this. However, I agree with your general notion that something other than "handoff to Corum between the tackles" might have been doable, especially on third down. I think by 4th down, you should go up 6. I think that the risk/reward falls that direction. But on third down...the difference between a more aggressive or hard to figure out run call and Corum up the middle could be pretty big. I'm not saying I'd pass, but I'd consider a pass (we got a 4th down conversion to Loveland). The tradeoff is, if you pass on third down:

You make it, you win.

You don't make it, you kick the FG anyway.
You have an incompletion, you give away the necessity for the last timeout to be called
You take on more risk of a TO that could be disastrous. 

So something like a jet sweep, or a JJ run, or SOMETHING else eliminates the incompletion problem, almost eliminates the TO increase, but likely takes advantage of the fact that they are expecting another Corum between the tackles play. The higher probability failure mode on the jet sweep/JJ run is likely you lose 3-5 yards. Which still leaves the FG on the table. 

So I think I do an aggressive run play call.

       Rob "It's easy to do this stuff 4 days later" S. 

I was irritated about the 3d down run - especially after 2 prior runs up the gut only netted 4 yards. SM should have called a play action bootleg pass. Throw if receiver open. Run if receiver not open. Even if JJ got sacked the boys were still close enough for a FG. Glad it all worked out. Beat Iowa!

I'm only going for it on 4th if it's 4th and short.  Agree with kicking the FG.  Not a fan of the 3rd down calls though.  Throwing it to Semaj on a screen with an unblocked defender in his face is a tough ask.  And the last 3rd down, I understand they are trying to burn TOs but that play didn't have much of a chance.  Rather get JJ out of the pocket and give him some options. 

Glad it all worked out.

I feel like all of our playcalling this season has been hyper conservative. 

And yes, I remember LLLLoyd too, but he wouldn't have gone for it on all those 4th downs, FWIW. 

I share the general concern about going into a shell on the last two drives.  The thing is, we didn't need to go for it on the 4th downs, we just needed less conservative play-calling on 2nd and 3rd downs. 

I had very similar feelings. Michigan should consider itself lucky to escape. I don’t know if it was a 50/50 proposition, but Ohio State had very good chances of scoring the winning TD on their final possession.

I would not have gone for it on 4th down. There is a very real difference between being up 3 and up 6, and it was 4th & 4, which isn’t a gimme. If it had been 4th & 1, I think Moore would have gone for it, but with 4 yards to go I agreed with taking the points.

But I would have liked a less predictable call on 3rd down. I think Brian pointed out that OSU was selling out on the run. A misdirection play had a pretty good chance of getting the 1st down.

The stats say that yes indeed, the percentage play was to go for it on on 4th down. But that's a super high leverage play. I think few coaches even in today's more enlightened game will take that. I've seen it done at the NFL level a handful of times: choking someone out. Maybe once or twice in college.

Yes, Sherrone's last two run calls were not good. And before JJ lets the ball go you just knew Semaj was getting blown up.

I think the FG was the right call. The kick itself took off a few seconds, the following kickoff took more, and OSU had the whole field to go and needed a touchdown. 

Agree with others that the 3rd down runs could have been passes