WTKA Roundtable 3/7/2024: That's What the Money's For
Things Discussed:
- NCAA no longer regulating NIL: Brave New World? Ha. Maybe for Michigan. Sam has us make our case, which is the same we've been making forever. Craig worries about a Texas A&M situation, Seth & Brian push back hard.
- How should Michigan do it? Supplement what they're doing now but don't lose *THEIR* guys because of money. Bryce Underwood is the classic example.
- Schools can't afford to keep paying what they're paying out right now. Michigan included.
- Warde Manuel: Absolutely wrong guy to show leadership. One thing he's doing is he's the leader of the CFP committee that's coming up with a 14-team disaster that's just the B10 and SEC forcing autobids for $$$.
- Brian: Anyone who's an administrator at a college is expendable; teachers are not.
- Sam: Time to get the collectives in on Bryce Underwood.
- Sam: Trust me, Sabb didn't leave Michigan for money; he woulda had a Benz here too.
- Seth: I'm bored by Sabb talk; we lost our 3rd safety to starting at Alabama. That doesn't mean there's a problem it means we had the best three safeties in America and football has two starting safeties.
- Juwan Howard: Probably not getting fired until Warde Manuel is (everyone: so fire Warde!)
- Who you hiring? Brian: McDermott (Creighton)->Shaka->TJ Otzelberger (ISU)->Mark Pope. Craig: Will Wade (all: !!???!!!)->Otzelberger (good defense!)->Anthony Grant (Dayton, fun offense)->Lamont Paris (SCar)->Mark Byington (JMU). Seth: Nate Oats->Fred Hoiberg->Darian DeVries.
- Sam: Talk to me about Nate, but Bama has been supporting him well, and then you have Brandon Miller/Darius Miles in proximity to a murder. The other thing—put a hand on a player on the court—seems like nothing.
- Seth/Brian: Details of the murder are important; the Missouri thing doesn't move the needle.
- Dusty May? Caught fire with this group, but has only been at FAU, would like to see more of a track record.
[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment 2 is here. You can watch the video here:
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Sometimes leadership is not taking every penny you can come across.
What does this have to do with the NIL debate we're having?
MGoBlog is a business. It has a choice to make: have a beveled guilt button to support the blog, have a button to support the MGoFullback through NIL, or do both. No one should be surprised that the first option is chosen. This isn’t a charity. Telling other people what to do with their money is a fool’s errand.
What surprises me is the advocacy of transactional relationships for players over transformational opportunities. It might be the one thing I agree with Warde and Harbaugh about and disagree with Seth. Attending UofM can undoubtedly be a transformational experience. Look no further than me, a nerdy math geek from East Lansing who got a Ph.D. from UofM and ended up living a life I never could have dreamed of. Or my two favorite bloggers, who if I understand correctly, turned a Computer Engineering degree and a history degree into the greatest university sports website in the world. I believe I’ve heard them say that MGo doesn’t work (to this extent) at any other university. So why are we limiting student athletes to mere transactional decisions?* Supposedly, Athletes were paid under the table by UofM in 190-whatever. By advocating for a return to that model, only through quasi-legal NIL deals, don’t we diminish the experience and opportunities of the modern athlete?
*I, myself, prefer a both/and approach as opposed to either/or. You can argue that the “transaction” should include more cash, but it must be noted that a scholarship offer is already transactional with benefits worth over $300K over 4 years, for playing football.
Its the dismissive attitude of Warde as "we are transformational, not transactional." as you state at the end...why can't it be both? Why can't you get paid relative to the value you produce and also get a great education? That is the point, no one is saying that Michigan needs to outbid every single football factory in the SEC, but when a kid is like "hey team X is offering me an NIL deal for $25k with a local pizza shop, what can you do?" and Michigan replies "we can offer you nothing now, but if you work real hard, in 4 years you will have a great degree and that will help you find a job." I think its understandable recruits are like "uh alright then no thanks." We love to tout the value of the Michigan degree, and I'm proud of mine for sure, but it is not like if you got your PhD from MSU instead you'd be living in a cardboard box on the street. The other schools offer degrees as well. And I don't expect The Michigan Degree to win out over every single lucrative offer these kids see.
And everyone is aware they get a scholarship, and that is a big benefit, but the market is showing that some kids are worth more than just a scholarship.
So yeah Michigan doesn't need to be dropping insane money on every recruit, but this holier than thou "our transformational experience is better than any transaction" is arrogant and insulting to recruits.
For 95% of Michigan (or any other college football team)'s fans ----- even if they DID "empty out their bank account" to support the NIL program, it would be a relative drop in the bucket. It would be relatively meaningless. When NIL budgets are in the low 8-figures, $100K (which is a lot of money!) is a rounding error.
It's the millionaires who are most important in determing how and where an NIL program goes. I don't begrudge that of the wealthy. But Seth is right in spirit on this one: why care if your ability to invoke change is more limited?
At some point, a fan will do the calculus. I have $X,000 (a different X for everyone) I can spend supporting my favorite college football team. I can donate $X,000 to an NIL. Or I can spend $X,000 to attend games and throw tailgate parties and have fun. BOTH ways of spending have an ROI, in terms of incremental Michigan wins and personal enjoyment gained. For most folk, the ROI is higher spending the latter way.
I think I’d rather hear Craig’s story that he teased us with, than the weekly NIL blather, AD bashing, and premature coaching search talk. Craig at least is entertaining, albeit fairly jejune. (esoteric? marxist sympathizer? scatological?)
March 12th, 2024 at 10:28 PM ^
Me too - especially since he mentioned the APBA baseball simulation game (which, by the way, is pronounced as a word, and not individual letters as Craig did...). Those of us old enough to grow up in the pre-video game era spent a lot of time with such old-fashioned sports games, and loved every minute of it regardless of the low-tech approach.
Yes teachers are expendable, too, as is college in general. Admins are just more expendable.
I think Craig's point on NIL and it devolving into Texas A&Ms everywhere is that you cannot have full free agency for all 85 scholarships (and walk ons) every single offseason.
The pros work because contracts have guarantees and players cannot hit the market every single offseason. In CFB, if those structures are not set up, then you cannot expect a player to be around for longer than a single year at any given time. Every offseason is a new contract negotiation with every single player.
Ironically, universal free agency is what's best for the players, because it gives them more money and more options - in the short term. (In the medium term, the superstars still get more money, but likely at the cost of everyone else. In the long term, the teams collude/cartel to control salaries and fix the market. The players sue, and we start the cycle anew.)
Marvin Miller famously feared that owners would listen to Charles Finley who, when the death of the Reserve Clause was nigh, said "Hell, make 'em all free agents! Every year!" because he thought that the way to increase salaries was to constrict supply. Make a handful of stars available each year, and drive the bidding up for those players. That approach has governed MLB ever since, with teams building around cheap, cost-controlled talent supplemented by expensive free agent signings, and the players were amenable to getting their payday later. (Of course, the devil always cheats, and now fewer and fewer players are getting the big money contracts as owners have stopped being willing to hand out long-term deals. Even Ohtani's new deal comes with his deferral of 97+% of his earnings until after the deal expires.)
All of which is to say, yes, the current extravagance is not going to last. What that mostly means is that players will get a rude shock as, say, the 2026 class gets half of what the 2025 class got.
And that happens whether or not Michigan encourages its big money donors to give to NIL or itself. In fact, they're likely better off if the donors give to them, as their cost projections are much more reliable and deliver a better ROI (at least, as far as they will look).
You have "ca" in your user name but seem completely uninformed about Ohtani's contract deferments.
It is generally considered fact that Ohtani volunteered the deferment of the majority of his money for a couple of reasons, some competitive, some pure greed.
He has left the Dodgers extremely liquid in comparison with where they'd be in paying a normal contract anywhere near the value of Ohtani's.
And the vast bulk of his contract will ne paid once he's presumably no longer a California resident. I'm sure the money is being moved into tax dodges on an annual basis.
Whatever the particulars, it has zero bearing on the subject of owners screwing players. He could have had a standard contract from several other teams but decided this was a better deal for himself.
And the vast bulk of his contract will ne paid once he's presumably no longer a California resident. I'm sure the money is being moved into tax dodges on an annual basis.
The California Franchise Tax Board will be happy to help him track down the money that he earned on the basis of his employment in the state. It does the same thing for RSUs and stock options granted to folks even if vesting happens after the person leaves.
My understanding of the question asked to Craig is in the current Wild West, no rules NIL approach, would Michigan be able to maintain their solid culture that produced 3 playoff appearances and 1 national championship. Craig voiced his doubt and brought up the fear of the culture becoming like A&M. I was surprised Seth forcefully pushed back on that. Absolutely the culture will change in a no-holds-barred approach in NIL. I thought the "this is Michigan fergod's sake" mindset died with Hoke's firing. The winged helmet is cool, but it is not magical (this year it seemed like it might be). There has to be rules that are applied evenly throughout the sport. Comparing Michigan, in being able to maintain culture, to the Lions where there are contracts and salary caps that bring stability and balance is not a fair comparison. If revenue sharing comes about, Michigan is absolutely able to retain a superior culture. An A&M approach that is being forced on college football produces an A&M culture.
Let's get rid of Warde by making him the men's basketball coach. Then the new AD could fire him and get someone useful.
Would Warde actually be a worse coach than Juwan?
Ouch! It's a fair question!
Re: bringing Juwan Howard back: putting aside the Martin scandal, we are in the lowest moment of Michigan basketball since I've been following the team (the late '80s). Howard deserves to be treated as a Michigan icon for the rest of his life, but how does next year look anything other than absolutely hopeless? The incoming recruiting class is not going to move the needle a whole lot. And the program remains heavily restricted re: adding transfers (as we've discussed frequently). In what universe is next year with Howard much better than this season?
Howard is the second M basketball coach in a row to take guaranteed Michigan icon status and squander it. Beilein by leaving, and Juwan by coming. Both still deserve credit for their contributions, but sadly both have added asterisks.
Leaving to try the NBA /= tanking an entire program. Beilein leaving to pursue the NBA is exactly the same as Harbaugh pursuing the NFL and nobody will ever attribute an asterisk to Harbaugh.
Point taken. I think I worded my post badly. I've followed the NBA since I was old enough to know that the Trail Blazers were amazing (approximately age 10) and Dave Twardzik was the best player ever. Unlike Jim Harbaugh leaving for the NFL, I felt in my bones that Beilein was not going to be a good fit for the NBA. He did not harm the program by leaving, but I was sad that he was going to end his career not in a blaze of honor and appreciation (as he deserved) but in an administrative reshuffling by an organization that couldn't capitalize on his strengths.
Reading posts about Juwan being restricted by transfers in the portal is getting old. Yeah, getting transfers to UM isn't easy. You pretty much need to focus on grad transfers and players entering their sophomore and maybe junior years. Harbaugh didn't seem to have a lot of trouble with the portal though. There were a good amount of contributing players on the NC team that were acquired through the portal - Stewart, Wallace, Hausmann, Nugent, Hinton, Henderson, Barner, Turner (kicker). Juwan is in year 5 of working with UM on portal transfers. Considering the success Harbaugh had in the portal, at some point Juwan's lack of success in the portal is Juwan's fault.
To be clear, I wasn't defending the idea of keeping Howard as coach. I was pointing out that it's going to be very hard to reload the roster in one offseason.
Brian: Anyone who's an administrator at a college is expendable; teachers are not.
Amen! I'd just add that many of them should be fired into the sun.
I recently had a student come to me in tears because some administrator was going to make her postpone her dissertation defense to the following semester due to some extremely minor bureaucratic issue. I mean, who the fuck is this dude to tell a student who spent 2 years researching and writing that she has to postpone and pay for another semester? And to top it off, the email he sent her was condescending and just plain rude. His response to my rather sharp email had a very different tone than the one he sent her (fucking coward), and the defense was held as scheduled.
I will reiterate for the umpteenth time that when Brian and Seth talk about NIL spending at UM they'd provide actual numbers. "Bryce Underwood is an example of poor NIL" is sort of crazy since that sure seems to be a ton of other factors beyond a checkbook. LSU is not the richest CFB team in the land and he was sought after by everyone.
The fact that Michigan basically kept everyone from this team and has been a desirable spot for transfers for a while sure seems to fly in the face that Michigan is bad at NIL, so apparently now we've moved the goalpost that UM is bad at the Miami/A&M version of NIL, which as we've seen has been incredibly effective at generating wins and that's why A&M is the defending national champion.
Michigan has a plan, and it seems to be working for them. They seem open to tweaking as well, which is a good sign and shows vision that apparently people online think they lack.
I really don't want to be a Warde defender but I swear he's not the boogeyman and I promise you that basically AD is like him. The difference between "good" and "bad" ones is what time frame you're considering. Fire Warde if you want but I'm old enough to remember when this site had a "Dave Brandon's Pimp Hand" tag because of how he handled Stretchgate and I'm sure he just kept plugging along being a rockstar at AD.
"I will reiterate for the umpteenth time" - kudos to the meta game with the dreaded triple post.
I agree 100 percent.
Frankly I've been surprised that Seth's position on NIL hasn't gotten his credibility obliterated on this site. At least Brian is coming around and is showing some wariness of failed NIL money cannons.
Seth laughs and says it's not his money.
That's because other people appreciate the nuance in a statement like "It's not my money." There is an obvious implication there that I'm speaking from bias, and that the people whose money would actually be going to get Bryce Underwood might have a different perspective.
I've said before on this show, when my kid was at Mott, that the names on the building's donor wall downstairs were the same that Harbaugh was hitting up on the money tour last summer, and that it's hard to criticize the priorities of such people when LSU is literally stealing from their own hospital to pay recruits.
If you're going to be REAL MAD multiple times in the comments about my NIL stance, I'd appreciate if you, you know, came remotely close to understanding what everyone else seems to understand about my NIL stance.
You've made your NIL stance pretty clear, actually.
You want rich donors to spend money on high school recruits, and then you complain when they aren't, in your opinion, spending enough. And then "lol I'd care more if it was my money!"
There is nothing stopping you from giving all your money to a recruit to come to Michigan. I'm sure they wouldn't turn it down.
I don't know if this is directed at me but I want to be clear that I do understand the "it's not my money" argument. It's a very nuanced situation and how money is handed out, to whom, and under what conditions varies across people. My bigger pushback is the ongoing narrative that UM is bad at NIL when, at worst, they have somewhat consistently been playing a longer-term game than a lot of other prominent programs, and I think that's been intentional and not because of negligence or ignorance, which at times has felt like the framing.
No it was directed at Decatur Jack's strawman. I gave you a longer answer below.
What strawman? I quoted you.
This is something you've advocated for years and I guess many haven't challenged you on it.
My bigger pushback is the ongoing narrative that UM is bad at NIL when, at worst, they have somewhat consistently been playing a longer-term game than a lot of other prominent programs, and I think that's been intentional and not because of negligence or ignorance, which at times has felt like the framing.
This is what I've been arguing. Michigan's approach to NIL makes more sense than to just throw money at high schoolers.
I think our NIL is working pretty well because we're playing a longer game. I get that people got frustrated early because we all thought we had a money cannon. We all had fever dreams of Stephen M Ross somehow getting an entire pro bowl roster to come to Michigan for 1 year. But sometimes it's the non-flashy investments that pay off the best in the long term, and we got major ROI from the 1 more year fund after 2022, and evidently the same is true now, given how badly raided we COULD have been after both a Natty AND Harbaugh leaving.
It seems like we're paying for established collegiate performance (here or elsewhere in the case of transfers) rather than paying for high school hype. I think that is ultimately wise. It's like we're paying for retention rather than an up-front salary.
It's hard to talk real numbers because:
a) Often we don't get the real numbers, just talk.
b) When I do, usually the number's only single-sourced, from someone who did not share it with permission to pass it along, and
c) The numbers and reality are often way off.
So speaking for myself, I try to straddle that line of saying things that I think to be evidenced without being forced to burn bridges by presenting all of that evidence. It's not something I will do often, and only do so with player remuneration because the nature of it is so cloak-and-dagger.
With Bryce Underwood, I think it's out there enough to share people are saying LSU offered $3 million/year for 3 years. The way they do that is to pledge to get that much in NIL deals, and then they go and facilitate those deals, and when they come up short they pay out from the collective anyways. But because they can't use them as inducements, there's no paperwork, and Michigan can use that unsurety to offer something more concrete from the local program with a bigger fanbase (e.g. "Hey, didya know JJ McCarthy made more than Heisman winner Jadyn Davis?"). We're also probably not talking about Michigan matching, just coming up with enough to make up the difference, since LSU is overcoming Michigan being a better situation from a lot of other perspectives (coaching, development, degree, postgraduate support, local NIL value, community).
I do not have anything concrete on this, but I strongly suspect the money that A&M promised kids in the 2022 and 2023 classes didn't materialize, and that's what spurred the massive transfer exodus. I also suspect teams are banking on the kids believing in themselves and how little people care about the kids who don't make it. If LSU gets Bryce Underwood for a promise of $9 million, and he works out, they'll pay it happily...maybe. But if he washes out in a couple of years, and they don't pay him anything close to $9 million, who's going to care?
You'd think that would hurt them in recruiting, but I'm starting to understand we may have overestimated how much it's common practice to fuck over anyone who doesn't meet their expectations. For example Otis Reese's mom got an apartment, and after a year she wasn't living there anymore.
That part about Otis Reese is incredibly sad.
a) Often we don't get the real numbers, just talk.
b) When I do, usually the number's only single-sourced, from someone who did not share it with permission to pass it along, and
c) The numbers and reality are often way off.
I guess that's my issue with the discourse. The numbers have almost never been that high, and even when they are (perhaps in the case of Bryce Underwood they really are close, though I still remember Jaden Rashada purportedly being offered around that total from Florida and it falling apart when the checks had to be cut) they seemingly have so many caveats and carve-outs that it's hard to project if you'll actually collect on those totals. So when I hear about UM being "behind" I never buy it because, much like Whose Line Is It Anyway, the deals' are all made up and the money don't matter. Michigan's running a different race than other programs and that's okay; they seem to be doing well in whatever game they're playing.
It's why I agree with you that the A&M and Miami numbers, to say nothing of the second-tier programs like MSU, probably didn't materialize and it's why people bailed and there were a lot of complaints. The Otis Reese situation was a clear example of inducement gone wrong but the reason it ultimately didn't matter in recruiting is some combination of (a) HS kids undoubtedly believe they'll make good and being screwed won't happen them, (b) so much coaching turnover at schools that you can always say "that's the last guy who screwed your peers, not me", and (c) the information asymmetry and imbalance in negotiations almost always benefit the institutions over the players. I'm sure there are HS kids who don't want to sign with school X or heard stories about non-payment from school Y, but they can't go to the league and there are only so many realistic options for most of these guys. As you noted in the podcast, the financial outlays are simply too high to be sustainable for most schools, so if you do want the biggest bag you're going to be dealing with the Ole Miss's, A&M's, and Miami's of the world and they all sort of suck.
I don't mean to come off too aggressively but it has just been years now of people discussing Michigan's relative merits and failures as an NIL outfit and it seems like there's more evidence now that they're doing well than before and yet I still feel there's an undercurrent of "they aren't doing it right" and I want to push back.
"It's hard to talk real numbers because:
a) Often we don't get the real numbers, just talk.
b) When I do, usually the number's only single-sourced, from someone who did not share it with permission to pass it along, and
c) The numbers and reality are often way off."
Based on those facts it isn't "hard", it's "impossible" - and everyone is just talking out their ass about NIL (including the folks running this site).
fanbase (e.g. "Hey, didya know JJ McCarthy made more than Heisman winner Jadyn Davis")
This is an absolutely lovely Freudian slip. From your mouth (keyboard?) to God's ears!
Not to speak for them, but I think them saying examples of poor NIL doesn't mean Michigan has the worst NIL. They have probably a mediocre system combined with a good culture, a historic program, lots of winning, good coaches, etc. As you said, they have been relatively good at getting guys to stick around. All those things contribute to that. But the problem I see is that in order to get guys to stick around, you need to get them to commit in the first place. When they miss on recruits they want, that depletes the talent on the roster, and that makes it harder to win. So while they are doing decent, they probably could be doing better. They need the next JJ. The next Will Johnson, etc. In order to do that, up front money is probably going to be involved.
The guys who stuck around from the One More Year Fund, are guys that were being recruited back in 2019 when NIL was less of a factor. So you were able to get them at the time, and then use the "we only pay established guys" given the time frame involved to keep them. That strategy is going to be hard pressed to succeed going forward, in my opinion.
I will reiterate for the umpteenth time that when Brian and Seth talk about NIL spending at UM they'd provide actual numbers. "Bryce Underwood is an example of poor NIL" is sort of crazy since that sure seems to be a ton of other factors beyond a checkbook. LSU is not the richest CFB team in the land and he was sought after by everyone.
The fact that Michigan basically kept everyone from this team and has been a desirable spot for transfers for a while sure seems to fly in the face that Michigan is bad at NIL, so apparently now we've moved the goalpost that UM is bad at the Miami/A&M version of NIL, which as we've seen has been incredibly effective at generating wins and that's why A&M is the defending national champion.
Michigan has a plan, and it seems to be working for them. They seem open to tweaking as well, which is a good sign and shows vision that apparently people online think they lack.
I really don't want to be a Warde defender but I swear he's not the boogeyman and I promise you that basically AD is like him. The difference between "good" and "bad" ones is what time frame you're considering. Fire Warde if you want but I'm old enough to remember when this site had a "Dave Brandon's Pimp Hand" tag because of how he handled Stretchgate and I'm sure he just kept plugging along being a rockstar at AD.
I will reiterate for the umpteenth time that when Brian and Seth talk about NIL spending at UM they'd provide actual numbers. "Bryce Underwood is an example of poor NIL" is sort of crazy since that sure seems to be a ton of other factors beyond a checkbook. LSU is not the richest CFB team in the land and he was sought after by everyone.
The fact that Michigan basically kept everyone from this team and has been a desirable spot for transfers for a while sure seems to fly in the face that Michigan is bad at NIL, so apparently now we've moved the goalpost that UM is bad at the Miami/A&M version of NIL, which as we've seen has been incredibly effective at generating wins and that's why A&M is the defending national champion.
Michigan has a plan, and it seems to be working for them. They seem open to tweaking as well, which is a good sign and shows vision that apparently people online think they lack.
I really don't want to be a Warde defender but I swear he's not the boogeyman and I promise you that basically AD is like him. The difference between "good" and "bad" ones is what time frame you're considering. Fire Warde if you want but I'm old enough to remember when this site had a "Dave Brandon's Pimp Hand" tag because of how he handled Stretchgate and I'm sure he just kept plugging along being a rockstar at AD.
Please stop reiterating. Umpteen times is enough.
- Brian: Anyone who's an administrator at a college is expendable; teachers are not.
It depends on what your goals for the institution are, but if you want things beyond the classroom walls (not just sports, to be very clear) then this is the type of belief that results in a lot of the current complaints being made about Warde. And honestly most all colleges don’t focus nearly enough on teaching (as opposed to “researcher first and, oh, maybe they can teach?”).
Brian butchered that Mad Men scene
I was gonna say "Peggy" there but the man was on a roll.
It's a damn good scene too.
I wonder if the move to paying players directly (as employees) is going to open a Title IX can of worms. Are we going to get lawsuits that football and basketball players are being treated different (wages) than female sports.
I don't see how that's possible. How many women's basketball coaches make as much money as their counterpart on the men's team?
I don't think so. It's reasonable for the pay to depend on the profits. Think of it like a sales commission. You want more money, learn to shoot a 3 or run an out route.
I will believe Michigan has a functioning NIL program when they're able to land 1, just 1, 5 star recruit.
It's real simple go land Bryce Underwood. Help out Moore. The guy is going to have elite oline/running game..now go get him an elite QB. That one move would have every Michigan fan believing in our NIL program.
Harbaugh didn't win big until he had a top 10 QB lets learn from that. We don't need to lose to change.
Roster retention was a huge part of the 2023 story as well. We absolutely should not take for granted how much of the roster we've retained considering we did the 2 biggest things that cause players to transfer: 1) head coaching change and 2) a championship.
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