That's an incredibly touching story, XM. I'm sure it brought great comfort to your father in law to be surrounded by loved ones and to know that his legacy would be carried on by such wonderful grandchildren.
Prayers and peaceful thoughts to you and your family.
Thanks for doing this! I don't watch a whole lot of NFL games and tend to lose track of Michigan players in the league.
It's great to see Wolverines on so many rosters. I'm glad that Big Mike Onwenu has found success. For some reason I've always had a soft spot for that dude. I'm curious if anyone else has any more info on Haskins' situation.
Congratulations! That's a wonderful accomplishment for you and your kids.
LIke I said, I wasn't directing this at you (I just didn't know where else to respond to the whole discussion). I thought your comment was fine and you talked about your experience. But then the whole thing snowballed.
Again, my sincerest congratulations to your son and all Michigan grads!
So people are so mad about the disruptions at yesterday's commencement that they decided to disrupt a thread celebrating yesterday's commencement?
This is not directed at you, 1989 UM GRAD, but this whole discussion in general. I just wish everyone would allow this thread to be a place for the OP and proud parents to celebrate and for us to congratulate them.
Question for you, XM. I know you've talked about doing some building on the board here before. Or anyone else reading this that has thoughts/suggestions.
I want to install a pull-up bar (simple enough) but the only good place for it is outside on my pergola. I was thinking about attaching it to a 2x6x10 joist on the pergola, but I'm worried about the torque that a pull up might create on the joist. Any thoughts? Would it be ok or should I maybe double up the 2x6?
I'm not much of a builder and don't want to come crashing down in the middle of a pull up.
Ha! I haven't seen that one. I'll have to look it up. When I was in school, the example was a published article on the link between country music and suicide.
Thanks! I have fun doing that and I'm glad you like it.
It's amazing the things you can find that correlate with football wins. 😊 I love the website Spurious Correlations
It even gives an AI generated explanation:
As the number of mechanical drafters in Colorado decreased, there was a subtle but significant shift in the airflow dynamics across the state. This unexpected change in air currents led to a slight disruption in the trajectory of footballs during crucial game moments. Essentially, the absence of these drafters inadvertently drafted a new playbook for Mother Nature, giving a whole new meaning to the phrase "air support" for the Denver Broncos.
I give Hutch a huge part of the credit for Michigan's turnaround. Of course it was a team effort, but his decision to come back after that 2020 season set the team culture for 2021 and beyond.
Thanks! I haven't looked at earlier years, but (I think) I have all the data to do it. For some reason, I think the 247 recruiting data gets a bit spotty before 2010, so I could probably start there.
That's a good point about whether the new coach is considered an upgrade. The hard part would be finding a way to measure that. Maybe look at the coaches winning percentage over their entire tenure, so a new coach would come in with some history compared to the previous coach. But I'm not sure how to capture this with first-time head coaches (Sherrone or Herman at Houston, for example).
Thanks! The website https://app.datawrapper.de/ did most of the work for me. I lose some flexibility (i'd like to be able to put some confidence intervals around the prediction) but it's still a pretty cool tool.
That's a good point. I'm assuming that recruits attribute the draft picks to the schools they ended up at, not those they transferred from. Maybe I could weight the draft picks by the number of years they were at that school, with schools getting full credit for the draft pick if the player spent 3+ years at that school?
Apologies for sounding argumentative in my response. That certainly wasn't my intent and I do agree with you to a point.
I don't think I'm really making a prediction about whether draft picks matter for recruiting, but just testing a hypothesis. think my bigger point is that, though the model shows that there is a correlation between draft picks and recruiting success, I'm a bit more skeptical. There's just too much dispersion to give me much confidence in the results. There are a lot more (and more important) factors that go into recruiting success and I'm trying to get ideas on other factors that other people would think to include in the model as well.
As far as transfers go, I don't know either way. I guess I'm thinking that recruits wonder "does Michigan have a history of getting people drafted?".
You're definitely right, for some teams anyway. Georgia and 'Bama certainly fit that pattern, but others like Texas A&M, Miami, Texas (this year excepted) don't seem to put out as much draft production as you would expect based on their consistently good recruiting scores.
Thanks! I hadn't thought about that. I'm going to look into this some more when I get a chance. But just a quick look at a model with team fixed-effects washed out any effect of draft picks. A large part of the variation is picked up by the simple team-level effects (which is consistent with your observation about Michigan's scores being a flat line).
You mean like a count of the number of years that they've been head coach at the school? Or maybe a "coach winning percentage" variable? That's excellent, thanks!
That's kind of my goal in the end. I want to build the best predictive model using observables like on-field success (SP+, draft picks, CFP appearances, etc.), coaching relationship (using new/returning coach as a proxy), academics, recruiting territory base... Then once I've done that, I'll look at the residuals to see what hasn't been picked up by these observables to explain team recruiting over-/underachievement. In other words, the bag ($$$) is in the error term, but so also are other things like team culture.
There are almost certainly biases in recruiting rankings based on geography. I can't upload images, but I mapped the 247 top-200 previously and it is definitely biased toward the south/west.
Recent Comments
Not gonna lie. The "Q" in the title piqued my curiosity.
That's an incredibly touching story, XM. I'm sure it brought great comfort to your father in law to be surrounded by loved ones and to know that his legacy would be carried on by such wonderful grandchildren.
Prayers and peaceful thoughts to you and your family.
Thanks for doing this! I don't watch a whole lot of NFL games and tend to lose track of Michigan players in the league.
It's great to see Wolverines on so many rosters. I'm glad that Big Mike Onwenu has found success. For some reason I've always had a soft spot for that dude. I'm curious if anyone else has any more info on Haskins' situation.
Congratulations! That's a wonderful accomplishment for you and your kids.
LIke I said, I wasn't directing this at you (I just didn't know where else to respond to the whole discussion). I thought your comment was fine and you talked about your experience. But then the whole thing snowballed.
Again, my sincerest congratulations to your son and all Michigan grads!
So people are so mad about the disruptions at yesterday's commencement that they decided to disrupt a thread celebrating yesterday's commencement?
This is not directed at you, 1989 UM GRAD, but this whole discussion in general. I just wish everyone would allow this thread to be a place for the OP and proud parents to celebrate and for us to congratulate them.
They're back, and they're gonna be mad as hell. Apparently last year's lesson wasn't enough.
Did he do the Triple Lindy?
Bold strategy coming in hot at the end, but it worked for me. I like a little spice now and then.
Nope. I double-checked the OPs work. It all checks out.
I just took a measure. It's 117".
The 2x6 is 124", connected to 2 4x4s (really 3.5" wide. Why call them 4x4 🤷♂️).
Thanks! I'll give it a shot. If it starts to feel a bit weak, I'll just double the 2x6.
I'm 180. Not sure what a "clear span" is.
Question for you, XM. I know you've talked about doing some building on the board here before. Or anyone else reading this that has thoughts/suggestions.
I want to install a pull-up bar (simple enough) but the only good place for it is outside on my pergola. I was thinking about attaching it to a 2x6x10 joist on the pergola, but I'm worried about the torque that a pull up might create on the joist. Any thoughts? Would it be ok or should I maybe double up the 2x6?
I'm not much of a builder and don't want to come crashing down in the middle of a pull up.
Ha! I haven't seen that one. I'll have to look it up. When I was in school, the example was a published article on the link between country music and suicide.
That's fucked up.
Thanks! I have fun doing that and I'm glad you like it.
It's amazing the things you can find that correlate with football wins. 😊 I love the website Spurious Correlations
It even gives an AI generated explanation:
I hope Harbaugh is taking notes here:
I give Hutch a huge part of the credit for Michigan's turnaround. Of course it was a team effort, but his decision to come back after that 2020 season set the team culture for 2021 and beyond.
Thank you for your service!
I thought you'd be drinking to celebrate?
What can I say? I like posting pictures. That's 99% of what I do here. 😊
Doesn't everyone have a photo of Colonel Klink on their computer?
Maybe I got too excited. 🤷♂️
Pictures are working again. I've gotta give this a try.
AWESOME!
Holy shit. Looks like someone's got a problem.
6-3 / 282 according to the GVSU and 247 websites.
Oops, wrong thread.
Edit: but I hope that number leads to a burner phone.
Hell yes! I get pride from knowing we were Britain's bottom bitch until we became the big pimp ourselves. 😊
Oooh, is this a fill in the blank? I'll say "cleanest bathrooms".
Who does number 2 work for?
I feel for the dude. I've been there. Damn enlarged prostate.
via GIPHY
I suddenly feel like dancing.
via GIPHY
Welcome, CJ!
Great story and memory. Thanks for sharing!
Sorry. I didn't realize that Brian Kelly pole dancing with recruits was a left-right issue. 🤷♂️
Is this the first 4* from Mt. Pleasant? I'm from just outside of MtP and I can't seem to remember any others.
via GIPHY
Thanks! I haven't looked at earlier years, but (I think) I have all the data to do it. For some reason, I think the 247 recruiting data gets a bit spotty before 2010, so I could probably start there.
That's a good point about whether the new coach is considered an upgrade. The hard part would be finding a way to measure that. Maybe look at the coaches winning percentage over their entire tenure, so a new coach would come in with some history compared to the previous coach. But I'm not sure how to capture this with first-time head coaches (Sherrone or Herman at Houston, for example).
Good point. I do that in a different model and yep, as you expect, round 1 and round 2 draft picks have a greater effect than later round picks.
via GIPHY
Yep. They are driving the results to a certain extent. I'll have to give it a shot after taking them out.
Thanks! The website https://app.datawrapper.de/ did most of the work for me. I lose some flexibility (i'd like to be able to put some confidence intervals around the prediction) but it's still a pretty cool tool.
That's a good point. I'm assuming that recruits attribute the draft picks to the schools they ended up at, not those they transferred from. Maybe I could weight the draft picks by the number of years they were at that school, with schools getting full credit for the draft pick if the player spent 3+ years at that school?
Apologies for sounding argumentative in my response. That certainly wasn't my intent and I do agree with you to a point.
I don't think I'm really making a prediction about whether draft picks matter for recruiting, but just testing a hypothesis. think my bigger point is that, though the model shows that there is a correlation between draft picks and recruiting success, I'm a bit more skeptical. There's just too much dispersion to give me much confidence in the results. There are a lot more (and more important) factors that go into recruiting success and I'm trying to get ideas on other factors that other people would think to include in the model as well.
As far as transfers go, I don't know either way. I guess I'm thinking that recruits wonder "does Michigan have a history of getting people drafted?".
You're definitely right, for some teams anyway. Georgia and 'Bama certainly fit that pattern, but others like Texas A&M, Miami, Texas (this year excepted) don't seem to put out as much draft production as you would expect based on their consistently good recruiting scores.
Thanks! I hadn't thought about that. I'm going to look into this some more when I get a chance. But just a quick look at a model with team fixed-effects washed out any effect of draft picks. A large part of the variation is picked up by the simple team-level effects (which is consistent with your observation about Michigan's scores being a flat line).
I haven't seen this, but I'm going to take a look at his stuff. Thanks!
You mean like a count of the number of years that they've been head coach at the school? Or maybe a "coach winning percentage" variable? That's excellent, thanks!
Thanks!
That's kind of my goal in the end. I want to build the best predictive model using observables like on-field success (SP+, draft picks, CFP appearances, etc.), coaching relationship (using new/returning coach as a proxy), academics, recruiting territory base... Then once I've done that, I'll look at the residuals to see what hasn't been picked up by these observables to explain team recruiting over-/underachievement. In other words, the bag ($$$) is in the error term, but so also are other things like team culture.
There are almost certainly biases in recruiting rankings based on geography. I can't upload images, but I mapped the 247 top-200 previously and it is definitely biased toward the south/west.
via GIPHY