Signgate The Fifth: The Say Anything Stage
Petering out. Over the weekend, nothing much happened. We were already starting to get articles that contain no new NCAA-relevant information and don't stand up to even a cursory fact-check—see Friday's post on claims that TCU's brilliant scheme duped Michigan—and now, uh:
Multiple sources from one Big Ten school told SI that a coach at a different school called them before playing Michigan to warn them about Wolverines ball boys on their sideline listening to play calls and communicating information to the Michigan sideline—holding the football up in one hand to indicate an expected pass, and in the other hand to indicate a run, for instance. (Sources at the school that was warned said they experienced nothing in the game to implicate the Michigan ball boys.)
We're now at the stage where people will say crazy shit to anyone, and that person will just publish it. Sometimes it's without bothering to check the plausibility of such a thing (Dellenger), and sometimes you'll even get a denial and still say "let's do it and be legends," as above. As far as Dellenger goes, his latest is about OSU asking the CFP whether they can scout the other game and getting a "yes," which doesn't do anything but indicate where this is coming from.
Meanwhile, the ball boy claims are part of a Pat Forde article in which he exhorts people to do things they're not allowed to do by NCAA rule…
Harbaugh is almost certain to try to no-comment his way through the press conference Monday, citing the NCAA’s confidentiality dictates during an ongoing investigation. That’s fine. But it seems appropriate for athletic director Warde Manuel—or even president Santa Ono—to step to the lectern Monday and address this.
…and proposes that Michigan self-administer a punishment as a "rogue" program with a smarmy "Any interest in leading here, Michigan?" Yes, I have interest in leading this column into the garbage. The future is now, old man.
[After THE JUMP: the Harbaugh show cause threat]
The non-event. The one thing that tried to happen over the weekend was a Wall Street Journal article claiming that Jim Harbaugh's contract offer had been "rescinded," which is language that should immediately perk your ears up. It is true that Michigan had a contract offer on the table for Harbaugh, and almost certainly true that Jim Harbaugh cannot sign that contract at this instant. Characterizing that as "rescinded" is the way you might put it if you were a bitter old man with an axe to grind and some access to insider information. Plenty of those around these days; some of them are even on the infractions committee.
If you were more even-handed you might characterize such an event as an "obviously mandatory delay," or some such. Webb/Bacon:
Already alluded to this in my tweet last night. But let me co-sign Bacs here by sharing what I reported on TMI last night -- I heard any suggestion that a deal was "rescinded" is categorically false. https://t.co/5wvYVfCie0
— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) October 30, 2023
FWIW, this leak was characterized to us as "absolute bullshit."
Speaking of… not often you can put "dunked on by a regent" on the ol' poaster resume, so kudos to this guy:
Hi Buckeye Friend! Hard to do fake emergency meetings during my kids bath time! Can't wait to see you in a few weeks! https://t.co/ethu6FNYhX
— Jordan Acker (@JordanAckerMI) October 29, 2023
The strong impression we have gotten is that there is a 0% chance the University of Michigan self-imposes anything before the end of the 2023 season—they have not even gotten a notice of allegations or their 90-day window to respond—and would immediately head to the courts if any other entity attempted such a stunt.
Provenance. There's no question where this comes from: OSU insider Bill Greene was making dark allusions to it a month before it ever came out. Exactly how things came about and who was involved is an interesting question, because if there's one thing hiring a private investigator invites it's more private investigators. It is a reported fact that there's a firm running this; the main remaining question is how personally involved folks in the OSU program were.
Sam put up a post yesterday that collected the circumstantial evidence against OSU and then provided another couple potential connections before getting into the fact that Christopher Day is a PI in New Hampshire, where Ryan is from. This immediately started a game of paywall telephone that I tried to defuse:
Sam's post is losing contain quickly so let me just point out that he says that it's "unlikely that [Christopher Day] or his firm would’ve conducted this investigation," and everyone seems to think it says "Christopher Day conducted the investigation." https://t.co/sYOVcUBt3U
— mgoblog (@mgoblog) October 29, 2023
Unfortunately, OSU is much better at this than Michigan and is unlikely to have written Ryan Day's brother a big check with "Sign stealing! Go berks!" in the memo. There is not going to be the big reveal here; it'll remain speculation without proof. And even if there was a big reveal, the die is cast in re: NCAA.
It doesn't really matter who, except insofar as it proves Day is shook.
The big question. The NCAA changed their rules this offseason to make it harder for head coaches to dodge responsibility when their underlings break rules. The text of the change:
“NCAA Bylaw 11.1.1, “Head Coach Responsibility,” imposes a presumption of head coach accountability for impermissible acts committed by assistant coaches and administrators within their program.
Saying "I didn't know" is no longer good enough, and the punishment is now mitigatable but draconian:
If there is a Level I or II violation(s) in a sport program, the enforcement staff will charge a head coach responsibility violation at the same level as the underlying violation(s).
Connor Stalions is getting a billion-year show cause and without mitigation the NCAA can just slap that same penalty on Harbaugh. How do you mitigate?
…head coaches must rely upon a three-prong strategy: A demonstration that the coach adequately monitored the activities of employees under their supervision, actively engaged in rules education activities with employees under their supervision, and actively communicated compliance concerns and reported information that could constitute a NCAA compliance issue.
There are a bunch of individual bullet points that can be taken in a coach's favor ("Actively soliciting feedback to determine if compliance systems are functioning properly," etc.) that both links in this section list. The NCAA released a guideline about how they're going to enforce this rule:
First, enforcement will consider factors related to the coaches’ education, monitoring, and communication efforts in deciding whether an 11.1.1 violation exists, and the severity of the violation.
Second, the head coach will have the opportunity to present information to the Committee on Infractions panel demonstrating that the coach satisfied these three areas of obligations.
Finally, the Committee on Infractions Hearing Panel will consider NCAA enforcement’s allegation and the coach’s rebuttal in making its determination as to whether Bylaw 11.1.1 was violated and what the appropriate classification of the penalty should be.
Takeaway: Head coaches will need to commit significant time to not only engaging in the three areas of presumption rebuttal, but also documenting and filing those efforts. It is strongly encouraged that all Division I Head Coaches begin to coordinate the creation of a filing system documenting their efforts, if they have not already.
The bold is mine. That does not sound like an area of strength for an athletic department that's announcing Shemy Shembechler's hire before anyone did a cursory search for racist social media likes. Nor does it sound like something Jim Harbaugh is proactively going to do himself. It's the NCAA, where the rules are made up and don't matter, but in past cases that has leaned towards letting Kansas and Tennessee off. Whatever personal vendettas Jim Harbaugh has racked up in the last decade could be coming due, especially since he's coming off a three-game suspension for what looks like blowing off an NCAA investigation into some secondary violations.
This is new ground for the NCAA; Harbaugh will be the first head coach subject to this rule for a newsworthy scandal-type substance. I would not be surprised if they bomb him, personally, and leave the rest of the program more or less intact. That would take at least a year or two to process, but if Harbaugh gets any NFL offer with that hanging over his head he's going to take it.
About that. I'm not buying this:
The NFL is unlikely to make itself a safe harbor for Harbaugh to escape what could be substantial NCAA discipline, league sources say, raising the strong possibility Harbaugh would need to serve some or all of any possible suspension he could face in college if he returns to the pros.
There isn't a bylaw governing the matter. But sources pointed to former Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel as precedent for how the NFL and its teams could handle a college suspension of Harbaugh.
Jim Tressel didn't take a moribund 49ers team to three straight NFC championships. I have heard that all this has made him less attractive to the NFL because it's a reminder of all the Harbaugh Shit you have to put up with when you hire Harbaugh, but the Bears loom as the kind of franchise that's desperate enough to ignore all that.
On campus. There were various confused reports about the NCAA being on campus and meeting with unknown persons. FWIW, we believe they were on campus and met with Santa Ono primarily. (This section is speculative, no insider info present.)
How egregious can it be? Brian Kelly on the whole thing:
"…this isn't the first time we've heard of sign stealing," he said, "whether there is proposed sign stealing or people were buying tickets to other games. This is all part of why this should not even be part of the equation."
Kelly said the tangible effect of stealing signals is debatable. In 32 years of coaching, he said, he has never believed they lost a game because of it.
"I've never come back to the office and go, they got us," he added.
If this is such a tremendous advantage why would the NCAA go thirty years without implementing a quick fix? Why would football coaches—the most paranoid group of professionals anywhere on this earth—not go to un-hackable wristbands? The claims that this is the WORST SCANDAL EVER simply do not align with the behavior of anyone in the sport for the last three decades.
Etc.: Timothy, you gotta chill out about this. "Harbaugh had to know what Stalions had seen in Oxford. The world had to know."
October 30th, 2023 at 2:11 PM ^
I still think Harbaugh is gone/gets booted and all our wins for the last 3 seasons get vacated, plus scholarships getting docked and some additional coaches getting dinged.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
I find this unreasonably pessimistic.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
This is NOT the 1970's when teams were limited to X number of TV viewings per year; TV runs the conferences and a top 3 TV rating team like Michigan isn't get anything in the way of punishment that impacts must see TV;
October 30th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
Oh look, another Toby.
October 30th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
I still find it confusing that everyone can pour so much conjecture into the ramifications when we don't know the one thing that will affect the outcome: How high up the coaching chain the NCAA asserts support for Stalions rose. I'm hoping it's not far like everyone else, but as an employee he reported to someone. If Jim's supposed to be responsible for the acts of everyone under him (an okay rule in theory but an absurd one to tar and feather someone with), then how close to him the examination of Stalions's intel rose has to be the critical, undetermined feature. That's a matter of waiting and seeing. And there may be a lot of that to come.
October 30th, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^
Yeah, that isn’t happening.
1. Grey area of the bylaw itself and the apparent lone wolf nature of this tells me collective punishment is highly unlikely. The fact that every school steals signals is also a mitigating factor.
2. UM and Harbaugh will get punished. Large fine, loss of say five scholarships over 3 years, and a two game suspension for Harbaugh for lack of proper control over his program.
NCAA dings Michigan, but not so much as to cripple the program on what really is a fairly minor infraction.
October 30th, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^
I don't think this is a response to my post, but the one above suggesting that Harbaugh could get pounded. But again, I don't think we really know the scope of what's being alleged here. And I'm mystified by everyone insisting that they do. If you're filming games, then you're giving them to someone afterward.
October 30th, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^
Double post
October 30th, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^
Insert Eeyore comment
October 30th, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^
Right, Brian has completely changed his tune and it's making me ill. If Michigan doesn't back Jim Harbaugh on this I'm done.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
His original tune was based on emotion, not reason. He is now where pretty much everybody else was last week.
His next tune will be about where everybody is at right now, which is “Harbaugh is probably gone after this year so go win the title.”
October 30th, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
There is a factor here that is hard to evaluate including by Brian. We still don't know how Ono will handle this. He was relatively new with the burger crap. Not anymore. If UM or Harbaugh is hammered by NCAA, we don't know how much Ono will fight. I am hoping he will.
October 30th, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^
I don’t know that hes changed it. We just have no clue how the NCAA is going to respond. Theyre never consistent and theyve never really dealt with an issue like this
I could see them agreeing it was one guy. I could also see them saying Jim is responsible and slapping him with whatevet. Anyone saying they know which way the NCAA roulette wheel will land is kidding themselves. But of course the NCAA (and/or Jim Stapleton) does seem to have this desire to stick it to Jim
October 30th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
You want a good laugh, go to page 250 (I know, I know) of the RCMB’s “Scum sign stealing” thread and look at one of the top comments on that page of what the penalties should be for the Michigan football program! Very well thought out screed there.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
That was a good laugh, thanks.
- - -
Switching topics to the "say crazy shit" (https://twitter.com/mr_morals44/status/1718843131754344763) part of Brian's post, the author gives off an annoying sanctimonious vibe. He has a YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@ScarletBlueShow) with another guy (supposedly a Michigan fan) that has a whole 94 subscribers! At least one incident of note in his past, too: https://www.woodtv.com/news/grand-rapids/driver-in-violent-gr-crash-sentenced-to-probation/
Switching sites, Timothy's is worth a look: https://touchdowntimothy.wordpress.com/
October 30th, 2023 at 9:02 PM ^
newduke5 has disappointment in his future!
October 30th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
I won't rule out new info coming out that changes the contours of what we know, tho at this point that seems fairly unlikely. But if the basic facts remain as they are, well, I'll just illustrate where I'm at by saying that today the Buckeyes 247 board had a heavily-upvoted thread that went through the rules and showed that Michigan has a good argument for not having even necessarily broken the rules. There were plenty of posters howling against that analysis, but also several saying, "Yup, time to move on." If the fanbase that's most invested in Michigan's downfall is starting to reach the acceptance stage with this case, that's probably a good sign
October 30th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
At the risk of beating this horse well beyond its death, Michigan should fight tooth and nail in arguing that Stallions didn't break the rules. How was Harbaugh supposed to make sure that Stallions knew not to do something that isn't prohibited?
October 30th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
it increasingly looks like Stalions was being reckless and hubristic, but also trying to operate within the rules as he understood them. The fact that team interns are NOT employees of the program--due to the NCAA's well-known fondness for not paying people if they can possibly avoid it--is one factor that was mentioned in that 247 thread
October 30th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
Exactly. And of all NCAA rules to be involved here, on this one, a staff member's literal presence at Michigan games could be argued as verification of following it.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
How was Harbaugh supposed to make sure that Stallions knew not to do something that isn't prohibited?
My concern regarding enforcement of Rule 11.1.1 is that much could depend on having a well-documented compliance/training program of NCAA bylaws for all staffers. A paper trail of compliance training should be a CYA for the AD and hopefully they had/have a program installed.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
I'm afraid to ask, but...got the link for that?
October 30th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
Good to hear from the reasonable OSU fans. There are thousands of them. It's the pathetically insecure ones that are driving most of the conversation. A couple of losses in a row have ruined them.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
Because I had to see it with my own eyes to believe it, I went to OSU's board to find this. Blake speaks the truth! If anyone else wants to peruse have at it: https://247sports.com/college/ohio-state/board/120/Contents/ttuns-potential-infractions-explained-219156809/
October 30th, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
It has to have dawned on a few of them, maybe even Ryan Day, that to make a big hue and cry about something that ends up getting the UM a slap on the wrist, then go in and get killed by a team that cannot any longer be in possession of your signs. . . has to be one of the most laughing stock setups ever. And it's likely in the cards.
October 30th, 2023 at 9:09 PM ^
What!?! Where is Coach Taylor?
October 30th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Not that this will matter to anyone, but I think I'll be sort of done with college football if the facts prove to be what they seem to be now and Harbaugh is bombed. The NCAA will have proven itself (yet again) to be sillier than professional wrestling.
As far as the ball boy thing, are plays even talked about on the sidelines in a manner that would let the ball boys relay useable information? Don't the coaches talk to each other in Gruden-esque gobbledygook?
October 30th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
I just posted the same thing
what would be the point
October 30th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
I agree. But first I would protest on the President’s front lawn like we did with Dave Brandon. If U-M can’t properly back up their coach here, that’s a stain against the whole university. You gotta have your guy’s back. And the NCAA always backs down when push comes to shove.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
I thought they used signs that we're accused of stealing.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
Right. I suppose the latest accusation is: taped signs -> decoded -> laminated playsheet w/ Stallions on sidelines -> THEN an added safety layer of... Verbal play names (also?) Stolen taught to home game ball boys? Just laughable. These unnamed sources are Wylder than the Stalyns™️
October 30th, 2023 at 7:36 PM ^
If you sneak up real close, though, you can get that gobbledygook on mic for your code-breaker to decipher.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
If they show cause Harbaugh and cause him to jump to the NFL over the most horseshit of violations all because he sucks at compliance I think I might be done with this fucking sport
October 30th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
That section of the post scared the shit out of me as everything else seems to be pointing in a better direction recently
October 30th, 2023 at 2:17 PM ^
Brian's increasing pessimism and Seth's relative silence on the issue is making me anxious. They're not entertaining the "grey areas" discussion at all and I'm wondering how much of it is because they're plugged in with the program insiders like Sam
October 30th, 2023 at 2:21 PM ^
Yup. As recently as last week, the twitter / media / etc. circus was making me insane, while Brian was the only one talking me off the ledge. Now the relationship between the two is ominously reversing itself
October 30th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
When I saw Brian's post, I hopped on looking for some reassurance that everything would be fine. That did not happen. I am sad.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
I believe that Brian's stance is that he doesn't expect the NCAA to get into the weeds re: its own rules.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
Yep, that adds up. They would probably need to challenge it in court with the "grey area" defense, and the school may not be interested in doing that.
October 31st, 2023 at 8:22 AM ^
From the school's perspective, the "gray area" defense likely comes into play later, but not now. Right now the playbook is to cooperate fully.
- Strategically, there's nothing to be gained from stiffing the NCAA in the investigation stage. Reflect on Burger-gate--a minor potential violation became a Level I for Harbaugh because Harbaugh gave the NCAA the finger.
- The NCAA is the law-maker, the prosecutor, the judge, and the jury. Arguing that the rule is unclear is sticking a finger in the eye of the judge.
- There's also no presumption of innocence, particularly not for a program, in the NCAA's system. Maybe, for a low-level individual like Stalions, there could be a "gray area" or a "no intent" (i.e., I'm too stupid to know what I did was wrong) defense. A large and sophisticated program like Michigan's won't get that benefit of the doubt.
- From what I'm seeing in reported news, Michigan is taking a fully cooperative approach with the NCAA precisely because the program has nothing to hide, factually. That's a strong signal that Stalions was rogue, and dramatically drops the temperature on the investigation.
- That's the fact-gathering stage. When it comes time to determine whether and what penalty should be imposed, that's when Michigan could suggest, gently, to the NCAA that young Mr. Stalion, while a rogue agent, might be excused for thinking what he was doing wasn't prohibited. That gentle suggestion in turn makes Michigan's own culpability lesser, because if Stalion could be legitimately confused by the rule, Michigan's own alleged lack of oversight appears more excusable.
TL;DR--it may be frustrating to fans, but right now Michigan appears to be following the playbook to a T.
November 2nd, 2023 at 1:34 PM ^
I fully agree with you that the program is taking the right approach. But I still don't understand why Brian, Seth, Sam Webb, or any of the other insiders/reporters aren't even entertaining an analysis of the actual rules
October 30th, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^
There is a first time for everything. I have more hope on Ono than others.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
Timothy needs to Learn how to Not capitalize Random words in his Sentences.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
My life was better five minutes ago before I'd ever heard of Timothy.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^
I'm just mad that I had to click into that garbage. Would have appreciated a "DO NOT CLICK THIS" like Brian has used in the past!
October 30th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
Very much agreed on all points.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
I think a better name for that post might have been 'If a French Bulldog could type'
October 30th, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^
My first though was, did Donald Trump write this?
October 30th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
Correct me if I'm wrong, but chronologically Special Secret Agent Stalions got hired prior to Shemy, yes?
It would really be a downer if the best Michigan coach in my lifetime got run off by a message board lunatic with a manifesto.
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