Post-Entry Outlook: Offense
A week and change on from the national title, attention now turns to the basketball program what Team 145 is going to look like. This may be an exercise in futility since there's a distinct chance that Jim Harbaugh takes an NFL job this offseason, throwing everything into a mild state of higgeldy-piggeldy. But they'd probably just plug in Sherrone Moore, avoid significant portal departures, and be more or less the same minus a predilection for weird press conferences.
So.
QUARTERBACK
Obviously the biggest question mark on the team in the aftermath of JJ McCarthy's draft entry. The options on campus do not feel like plugging in JJ McCarthy, to say the least. They are:
- Jayden Denegal, a 6'4" pocket passer who was a high three star on the composite and got a reasonable amount of garbage time last year. He'll be a redshirt sophomore next year.
- Davis Warren, a former walk-on who's looked solid in a couple of spring games but was hurt (probably) much of the year, ceding non-JJ snaps to Denegal.
- Alex Orji, a Tebow-esque runner who got on the field for various snaps down the stretch where he always ran the ball. Michigan did dial up a pass for him in the Rose Bowl but 'Bama covered it and he ran out of bounds for a two yard loss.
- Jadyn Davis, a true freshman who was a five star but has slid down recruiting boards to be a fringe top 100 prospect. Davis did join the team for bowl practices and has buckets of experience in high school.
In the season preview I asserted that the best case scenario for Michigan entering 2024 is that Orji was the clear frontrunner and I still maintain that because we have an indication he does have an elite skill. I'm not sure the Tebow/Denard offense can be a national title winner in the year of our lord 2024; neither am I sure Michigan can pivot a ton of option stuff that would be necessary. Even so: Orji has It on the ground, and I'm not sure anyone else can say they're there as a passer.
[After THE JUMP: loaded RB room… not so loaded WR room]
RUNNING BACK
[Bryan Fuller]
Donovan Edwards returns so this position is stacked. Kalel Mullings has looked the part both as a runner and a blocker. Ben Hall flashed as a freshman; Cole Cabana will return from injury; freshman Jordan Marshall was a straight-up head to head win over OSU and could be an immediate contributor.
Concerns: can Edwards be more consistent after a season that went nothing, nothing, nothing, a couple nice runs against Penn State, nothing, nothing, wins national title in the first quarter? Will Michigan explore the two-back sets featuring Mullings more? Will an expected step back in passing efficiency slow down the ground game? Etc. But the personnel will be great.
WIDE RECEIVER
The only other spot on next year's team that looks like a potential problem. Tyler Morris returns for his junior season and should be a locked-in #1. In the slot, Semaj Morgan looks like he'll be somewhere between fun and game-breaking once he shakes the freshman stuff.
Then… uh… it got kind of lonely around here. Darrius Clemons and Amorion Walker transferred—Walker spent last year at CB but was likely to move back to WR, per Sam Webb—and Cristian Dixon announced he'd be moving to defense. That leaves Michigan with no other experienced WRs unless scattered snaps for Peyton O'Leary count. The only other non-tiny WRs on the roster are the trio of redshirt freshmen Michigan brought in a year ago: Fredrick Moore, Karmello English, and Kendrick Bell. Neither true freshman looks like the kind of guy to defy Freshman Wide Receivers Suck.
I thought this looked like a situation that someone in the portal would say "hey, clear starting spot for defending national champion" and hop aboard but Michigan whiffed. Jahmal Banks committed to Nebraska, Deion Burks to Oklahoma, and Donaven McCulley returned to Indiana. Hope for reinforcements is not entirely lost—Josh Wallace was a crucial post-spring pickup last year—but the vast majority of portal movement has already come and gone.
Michigan can patch some of the holes with targets for Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards.
TIGHT END
[Barron]
Colston Loveland and Max Bredeson return and should be amongst the nation's best in their roles. The only TE with a run-blocking grade better than Bredeson last year was his teammate:
Meanwhile Loveland was already up with Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson when it came to targets last year—mid-60s for all—and it wouldn't surprise to see Loveland hit triple digits unless it is indeed Orji, whereupon nobody is hitting triple digits.
This is Michigan so they're going to want a third guy, preferably a big inline sort. Marlin Klein, Josh Beetham, Deakon Tonielli, and Zack Marshall are options. I don't think it'll be Klein, who seems like a flex sort redundant with Loveland. Your guess is as good as anyone's.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Trente Jones's departure hurts. Other than McCarthy, everyone else who entered the draft was a stone-cold lock to do so from before the season. Many only had decisions to make because of COVID, and had been long-time starters on a national title team. Those guys don't hurt to lose. Jones, too, only had a decision to make because of COVID but I'd hoped that he saw a clear path to a full-time starting job and would want that both for personal satisfaction and his own draft status. Alas. I don't begrudge anyone their choice to leave; personally I wanted Jones in full flourish next year.
Also: now Michigan cannot run out a line of seniors, fifth-year seniors, and sixth-year seniors.
It seems pretty clear that the interior line will be Gio El-Hadi, Greg Crippen, and Northwestern transfer Josh Priebe. El-Hadi played about a third of the season in 2022 and was pretty good until he ran up against Jer'Zhan Newton; two years on he's a good bet to be a plug-and-play replacement for Trevor Keegan. Crippen sucked it up as Michigan imported back-to-back Rimington candidates in front of him but is clearly the heir apparent. You can read about Priebe in his hello post; he was third-team All Big Ten a year ago, perhaps a bit dubiously.
Tackle is slightly murkier but not a whole lot more. Myles Hinton does return for a sixth year after a season flashing a significant amount of promise, and a significant amount of falling over. He'd dropped to tackle #4 by the end of the season after Michigan clearly wanted him to seize the left tackle job early; he's one of the biggest swing guys on the team because he has massive potential.
The other tackle will probably be Jeff Persi or Andrew Gentry. Like El-Hadi, Persi played in 2022, getting a start against Rutgers. He was just a redshirt freshman then and was middling. Gentry has the recruiting pedigree and Michigan started talking about him like he was the next great tackle last offseason, checking one of our boxes: are they talking about you when they don't need to talk about you? My money is on Gentry.
A line of Hinton/El-Hadi/Crippen/Priebe/Gentry is all but a 100% reset but also looks like it could be one of those Alvarez Wisconsin era reboots where the guys have different names on their backs but are still monsters.
UPSHOT
not just a funny name anymore [Bryan Fuller]
I have to admit this line of thought intrigues me:
Naming my dream: Michigan runs the go-go with Orji, Edwards, and Mullings
— Prettyman (@HoracePrettyman) January 15, 2024
You may remember the go-go from our UNLV preview:
[Brennan Marion] describes his offense like so:
“People say your offense is a spread offense,” Marion said. “It’s not even close to the spread in my mind. It’s a pro-style, triple-option offense. That’s what we’re trying to do. A true West Coast passing game, a triple-option run game and the up-tempo principles of Coach Malzahn.”
Sounds like a huge pain in the ass. I would not be surprised for Michigan to eat some garbage in this game. A more detailed breakdown of the offense can be found in Alex's post; for purposes of this section it's enough to know that the double-RB setup shown above is UNLV's base set and that they will go wildly unbalanced in an attempt to trip up your alignment rules, then throw in a blizzard of end-arounds, fake end-arounds, misdirections on top of that, and tempo. It kind of reminds me of the Mad Magicians. Personnel is almost beside the point, and we know very little about it anyway since we've got one game against Bryant to go on.
Michigan did not eat any garbage in that game because UNLV, like most of Michigan's nonconference opponents, just wanted to get out of there with a check and their playbook unrevealed. UNLV turned it on afterwards, spurring a remarkable turnaround. UNLV finished the 2022 season 96th in offensive SP+. Last year they were 32nd. Caveat: a large chunk of this is getting great play from freshman QB Jayden Maiava, who immediately decamped for Georgia.
Anyway: I do not think Michigan is going to import Marion and put two guys in the backfield on every play. I do think that the personnel on this offense lends itself to something like it. Default 21 personnel with Edwards and Mullings on the field together. Loveland alternates between inline and flanker. Morris is the only WR to see 80%+ of the snaps. Semaj Morgan runs so many jet and orbit motions that he wears ruts in the turf. Orji is a constant threat to keep it, there are perimeter run threats on every play, etc. I
If Orji doesn't work out Michigan is going to be operating with a pocket passer, a pretty good ground game, and what looks like very little vertical game-breaking ability, with apology to Tyler Morris's touchdown against Alabama. That feels like it has a hard ceiling, and rolling with What If Orji may not. I can't construct a mental model of a Denegal/Warren/Davis offense throwing to Tyler Morris and Question Mark that feels like hell on defenses. Orji running bash counter with Edwards the back does sound like hell.
January 20th, 2024 at 10:01 AM ^
Missing out on the Dante and going all in that year has made for a soft spot in the roster.
Denegal looks like he throws a nice ball. We just don’t know about Orji’s arm but one dimensional teams don’t win Championships.
Maybe we get lucky in the portal but most have found a new home and then you have Harbaugh.
This team has the talent to run it all back but not without good QB play.
January 20th, 2024 at 6:43 PM ^
Bama was quite close to a national championship with Jalen Milroe. If Orji has a good deep ball we could have success with him in a run first offense.
January 19th, 2024 at 5:09 PM ^
where they aren't going to be out recruiting the OSU and Georgia's of the world
How many projected 2024 draft picks do we have again?
We recruit damn good players, regardless of what the EXPERTZ think about them.
January 19th, 2024 at 8:51 PM ^
I haven't looked at the stats, but doesn't Donovan Edwards have more completions than Orji, at the moment? Could be multiple running qbs. Anybody can throw the ball at any moment!
January 19th, 2024 at 2:58 PM ^
If it's Orji time, it'll be fun and frustrating. But we'd need to have a backup ready who's running something different.
If/when it's pocket time, it'll likely be a lot more frustrating. Luckily, the red letter games are a bit more spread out in 2024
January 19th, 2024 at 2:59 PM ^
Unless coaches have been hiding Orji's passing skills just for fun, which I doubt, he's not my favorite option. Ceiling on running QB offenses in a real conference is what Denard Robinson did, and those offenses never scared the real defenses in the conference.
And imho, Orji is no Denard Robinson.
Not that it wouldn't be fun with a whole new offense, but keeping a one dimensional offense "fresh" from week to week would be insane.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:09 PM ^
OK but Alabama just showed at least a decent diagram (granted our WRs are definitely a cut below the Bama WRs) to make a good offense work.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:00 PM ^
Last season, Milroe threw for 150 fewer yards (2,834) than JJ (2,991) in one less game.
Pretending last year's Bama team was this dominant, run-game-only blueprint to win modern college football games without passing the football is a false narrative.
I don't know if I believe that Orji is capable of throwing for 1,500 yards, let alone 2,500.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:13 PM ^
Milroe, although consistently inconsistent, threw some gorgeous deep TDs during the season. Just not against Michigan.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:15 PM ^
J.J. was firing laser-accurate passes over the defender's shoulder because he saw on film that the guy turned his back when a receiver came into his zone. Milroe's passing success was because defenses were freaking out about his running ability and presented him with larger windows. It's extremely unlikely Orji can do what J.J. did. He might be able to do what Milroe did.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:27 PM ^
My whole point is that if JJ is a 9/10 on the passing ability skillset, Milroe is still a 6/10. Orji is a complete unknown and while he could be a 6/10, that feels closer to his ceiling and there's a real possibility that he's only a 2 or 3 on this hypothetical scale, which would be a disaster. That's Penn State levels of passing ineptitude, and you cannot win games against good teams when you are that one-dimensional on offense.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^
Unlike Denard, the hypothetical Orji-led offense would be paired with one of the best defenses in the country.
As for keeping things fresh, Michigan did pretty well with a one-dimensional offense for most of 2021.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:30 PM ^
That's actually my hope, 2021. Downhill run game you HAVE to commit extra bodies to stop, paired with enough of a downfield passing game the corners and safeties disappear off the screen for dump-offs.
I'd guess Denegal is the guy, but I have no idea. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it to be Orji, but we have zero evidence of that, and that absence is telling.
Whoever can hit those 40 yard shots the most consistently without being unafraid to dump it off for 5.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:31 PM ^
They could afford to be more run-dominant because they had a first-round QB and two receivers that could keep you honest with big plays. You remove those elements from the equation, defenses will have far more success playing Michigan's run game, even with a more prominent QB run game.
January 19th, 2024 at 5:03 PM ^
2021 wasn't with McCarthy, it was with McNamara.
January 19th, 2024 at 5:10 PM ^
Wasn't referring to your post, but the post of the person you were replying to.
January 19th, 2024 at 6:42 PM ^
Cade's not going in the first-round, dude.
January 20th, 2024 at 2:00 AM ^
Best defense without Minter? Good defense sure. With a Don Brown ( a hire we have to do at the last minute ) level DC, I think best is off the table.
January 20th, 2024 at 11:41 AM ^
Why would Orji come in the game to throw the ball if we have JJ McCarthy? The entire point of his package was to run the football as a change up.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:00 PM ^
I'd expect to see more 2 RB sets to displace a bit of our 2 TE sets. I want more of Mullings/Hall on the field with Donovan Edwards Every single time Mullings was asked to lead block, he bulldozed people out of way. If we're still breaking down position groups into "Tight Ends and Friends", I'd like Mullings to be used as a lead blocker enough to get a cameo in that section.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:27 PM ^
I'm with you on Mullings being an elite blocker, but he also seems to be a great runner. If we just need an elite blocker, Bredeson is fine.
My take is Mullings>Hall. I'd like to see Mullings take the bulk of Corum's carries with Hall and the freshman taking the rest. Give Edwards more touches than last year (more passes)
January 19th, 2024 at 4:17 PM ^
Well Mullings is older. Running backs tend to become more complete players after they've had a few years in the system. In terms of sheer running ability I think they both look pretty good.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:05 PM ^
Edwards and Orji out there together. Both can run and both can pass, kind of! Keep the defense guessing!!
January 19th, 2024 at 3:52 PM ^
Mullings can (kind of) pass too! Too bad the KU OC is now at PSU, we've got his dream personnel! Single wing throws from the full back!
January 19th, 2024 at 3:05 PM ^
1. Jayden Maiava did transfer to Georgia for 48 hours before going to USC
2. Brennan Marion is Josh Gattis without the ability to pass a background check
3. Never trust a coordinator that tries to have a catchy phrase for his offense
January 19th, 2024 at 3:35 PM ^
Can't trust any of these:
- West Coast
- Run and Shoot
- Air Raid
- Power
- Pro
- Single Wing
- Triple option
- Spread
January 19th, 2024 at 3:40 PM ^
Most of those are actual offenses, not catch phrases like speed in space and the go go offense to get media members with half of a brain to write glowingly about them. There's a reason Texas told him to kick rocks
January 19th, 2024 at 4:18 PM ^
The Fun'N'Gun was pretty successful.
January 19th, 2024 at 5:08 PM ^
Growing up in FL and being an FSU fan surrounded by Gators I'd always refer to the Fun'N'Gun as the Shit'N'Git.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:44 PM ^
What about the Silver Stretch?
January 19th, 2024 at 4:14 PM ^
It wasn't as good as the Silver Rush.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:39 PM ^
His offense looked pretty good. What is the background check in response to?
January 19th, 2024 at 4:15 PM ^
His offense looked good because he had a significant talent advantage and a high level P5 caliber QB. They had some dudes on that offense.
The background check is in response to hiring his mistress to work in the athletic department at a previous job and getting in deep shit for using a university credit card for illicit uses. He's a dog shit coach and a dog shit person.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:07 PM ^
To me another RB concern is just the general play and gelling of the O-Line, which is at least somewhat of a question.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:32 PM ^
Isn't it wonderful that Michigan can replace its entire starting line plus 1 and we can feel pretty good about it? Times have changed, friends.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:33 PM ^
It seems pretty clear that Michigan's personnel will be best used in a run-first offense. They have Edwards, Mullings, and Hall at RB, a mashing TE in Brederson and enough OL candidates that the ones who win the jobs should be good.
That does have limitations. They responded to people stacking the box and flinging players into gaps by both letting Corum and Edwards juke people and adding sixth and seventh talented lineman in place of TE/WR until some poor safety showed up in a gap and got demolished by a pulling OL. They still have Edwards, but might not have 7 starter-quality linemen who can adjust on the fly any more. They also no longer have JJ as a credible play action threat.
They will have to either establish that Orji can run the QB-Oh-Noes plays to keep people honest, or that Denegal/Davis/Warren can run enough play-action to make people pay for stacking the box.
If the OL can control the line of scrimmage, even against the PSU/OSU DL, they can make either one work, so that's what I'll be looking for when they take the field.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:05 PM ^
Yep. If we thought it was annoying running into 8 man boxes this year, wait till we downgrade at QB and WR. I think we're gonna be back to 2021 again. We're gonna be in a lot of 13-7 halftime scores and the run game is gonna get bogged down if there's no serious passing threat
January 19th, 2024 at 6:55 PM ^
When has Michigan under Harbaugh ever had an offense that wasn't run first?
Heck, when has Michigan ever had an offense that wasn't run first?
January 19th, 2024 at 3:38 PM ^
I have been pushing for the Go-Go offense from the beginning. Unless they can find a good QB and a good WR in the portal they will need to find ways to scheme guys open. Michigan is going to have to get creative here.
January 20th, 2024 at 10:16 AM ^
Michigan just won a National Championship and recruited one of the top QBs in country. It seems like it would be easier to go get a portal QB if you need than to change your entire offensive scheme.
Offenses run year to year based on young kids becoming old kids and getting repetition. If I’m Jadyn and spend my freshman year in a triple option vs an NFL offense I’m questioning wasting my time and probably gone.
It just doesn’t seem like a wise move for program continuity. The fact we are even having these discussions coming off the what might be the most dominant college team in decades is frustrating to say the least.
We have enough good talent at WR but adding the IU kid would have been nice.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:55 PM ^
You cannot afford to be complacent at QB or WR with this defense and this schedule. Go tamper and find a school with multiple QBs (Kansas, Texas, etc) and poach a competent QB with the NIL money you were saving for JJ.
Orji and his power run game will be the floor/backup plan and Davis will be the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:06 PM ^
They should be chasing Jameer Grimsley hard as he's really the only option at the moment. Or wait and see if there is some fallout from a high powered passing attack in the spring and grab the guy who loses his starting battle.
January 19th, 2024 at 3:56 PM ^
Given that this title defense is going to be based on the defense being dominant, worth thinking about going full '97 and let #2 get 10 snaps or so on offense?
January 19th, 2024 at 4:01 PM ^
I suspect Brian maybe undersells the potential to grab some first-string players from the portal in the spring. A key reason why Michigan whiffed on WR transfers was very likely the uncertainty about who would be Coach1 and QB1. Hard to imagine a top WR or QB transferring here under those circumstances. Since we'll soon have clarity about the coaching, and since QB1 is now there for the taking, I'd assume a QB and some quality receivers who didn't enter the first portal window will jump into the second one in order to nab starting spots at Michigan. I'd bet on it. Let the tampering begin!
January 19th, 2024 at 4:07 PM ^
Pretty sure Bond from Alabama said Ewers was a big part of why he was transferring to Texas. Michigan doesn't have that draw at the moment.
January 19th, 2024 at 4:16 PM ^
They'll land a good QB soon enough, ideally on the first day of portal season. I'm sure they're not-at-all-tampering as we speak. I foresee a Riley Leonard-to-ND scenario: Somehow everyone knew where he was going before the portal even opened.
Consider also the very real possibility that Harbaugh leaving and Moore replacing him could change the equation. Harbaugh isn't every player's cup of tea. Moore is young, charismatic, beloved. And he rocked it. He may also usher in a more pass-friendly offense. I wouldn't be surprised if he draws interest from a good QB who didn't want to play for Jim.
January 19th, 2024 at 10:01 PM ^
Also Steve Sarkisian was his primary recruiter at Bama (a la Worthy).
January 19th, 2024 at 7:00 PM ^
How many wr's are going to come Michigan to play in an offense that doesn't throw the ball a ton? Doesn't mean they couldn't get any but I wouldn't expect any game changers.
January 20th, 2024 at 10:21 AM ^
The Dante Moore decision was interesting. We recruited him so hard.
He could likely come in and start yet he goes back to Oregon to sit behind a guy for a year?
January 19th, 2024 at 4:04 PM ^
With the lack of receivers, I'd like to see Mullings may the #1 ball carrier and use Donovan as a RB/ inside WR hybrid. Seems like Donovan at this point doesn't have the vision some of the other guys do and I'm gonna be frustrated if we spent half of next season trying to make him into Blake Corum. Let Mullings be the moose and have Edwards be the hybrid player he is.
Like Brian's stumping for one flea flicker per game, I am going to begin stumping for one Donovan Edwards pass per game. Dudes got an arm we dont use often enough
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