Seth Davis posts pre-draft evaluations of top 50 NBA prospects on The Athletic this morning
For those of you who dont follow him every year Seth Davis posts evaluations of the top 50 NBA draft prospects via "Finch". Finch is an anonymous amalgam of 6 NBA scouts and 6 different NBA front office executives all rolled up into one. Let's just say Finch is not a big fan of the three Michigan players leaving early this year to say the least.
Ignas Brazdeikis, 6-7 forward, Michigan, 20. “I’m not a huge fan. He measured smaller than I thought. He’s not all that athletic. I don’t think he can guard a 4, and right now doesn’t have the ability to play the 3. I don’t like drafting Michigan players because I think John Beilein takes average players and makes them look terrific. His guys get drafted high but don’t do much in our league. Lateral quickness is a question. He was terrific the first month of the season, but I don’t know what happened to him. He did not shoot the ball well in the workout I saw. What does he do to really stand out on an NBA floor? He’s a streaky shooter but not a bad one.”
Charles Matthews, 6-6 guard, Michigan, 22. “Breaks my heart that the kid just tore his ACL. He was borderline before the injury. Now I can’t imagine who would draft him. I don’t see anything there. If you’re a wing in our league you have to be able to shoot, and he doesn’t have that yet. He’s more of a two-way guy who you develop. When you don’t improve your jumper after playing for Beilein, that’s a troubling sign. He’s going to have to make it defensively.”
Jordan Poole, 6-5 guard, Michigan, 19. “He should have stayed in school. Doesn’t handle the ball in terms of being to attack off the dribble. He’s going to have to take the long route to the NBA, probably through the G League. Not a fan. Good size but not a great athlete. I’m not convinced he loves basketball. Smooth as heck. Can really pass it. I think he can be a point guard if he gets stronger. Needs to get better as a defender but he’s good. He’s smaller than I thought, really lean and thin. Toughness is his biggest question. I question his decision-making. I thought he was good at times, but at other times I thought Michigan lost games because he was a train wreck.”
"I thought Michigan lost games because he was a train wreck.”
TIL scouts read the post game MSU threads
That seems a little harsh to say that he was a train wreck. They certainly didn't lose many games during the 2 years Jordan played. But overall the evaluations are fair.
You could make the argument that all 3 should have stayed and there will be a drop off next year without them.
Mr Poole will be pissed when he reads that evaluation.
Can Charles just come back for one more year?
Charles had 1 year of eligibility left, but Beilein let him know that the scholarship would be used for a new recruit. Charles then chose to remain in the draft, thus losing his eligibility.
Charles Matthews was always going pro after this season. It wasn't like he was planning on coming back but Beilein pushed him out.
As even casual fans know, that is not what happened.
Ouch!
Yes, Seth as editor Captain Obvious.
It's not Seth though. It's a combination of comments made by 6 scouts and 6 front office executives he puts together into one. I dont think his opinion is even a part of it.
Got it. I guess then "thanks composite captains obvious" to us.
Sometimes the truth hurts. Sometimes it can be brutal.
None of these assessments seem like a surprise.
Yeah. Harsh, but fair. Including the bit with the guy who says he doesn't like drafting Beilein players because Beilein gets a lot out of them but then they don't perform. There are some exceptions in Hardaway and Levert but... he's not wrong.
That was the gut-punch that rang true the most! The Beilein system makes decent players look great. Caris by far looks like the one who could break the mold and be an all-star caliber player.
I don’t see many lies there.
I would never use the words lean and thin to describe Jordan Poole.
Pooles assessment is definitely the furthest off, but still pretty damn good. These are overall very good assessments and i would agree with pretty much all of it except a little of Pooles.
Best pro player on the team last year, will be the star of this years team. Livers. He is going to explode, and we damn well need him to.
Not to thread-jack, but the 2 things im most looking forward to is Howards development of Johns and Castleton. Teske is what he is at this point. But Johns and Castleton have potential to both be stars with the right guidance and development.
I’m also looking forward to Castleton and Nunez post Camp Sanderson. Nunez has the shooting ability to step in for Poole, but he needs to get stronger. Totally agree with Castletons development under Howard. If he gets stronger as well, we could see another Mo Wagner type big on the team.
Poole measured in at 6'3.5" and 191 pounds at the combine. I'm not sure what other adjectives you'd use to describe someone shaped like that.
Agreed. Those were almost my exact measurements in college and I was pretty damn lean/thin.
And this is why Beilein left in large part.
25 years ago, you'd have to be a top-half of the first round prospect to leave school early.
Then it became: "Probably first-round? I'm going!"
Then it became: "Probably drafted? I'm going!"
Now, you can have every scout in the universe telling you that you won't get drafted and it's: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Honest assessment.
The NBA revenue boom and draft salary slots have it where if you stick in the league the 2nd round/UDFA route usually gets you paid more over the first 5 years than the non-lottery first guys who are team controlled for longer.
Lots of guys obviously don't stick so it's a risk but kind of a messed up incentive structure. No coincidence they set and break records for underclass entries just about every year.
The classic example of that is Gilbert Arenas.
About the 26:00 mark here(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQwPKlflonQ), Gilbert and Richard Jefferson talk about Gilbert fucking around in the pre-draft combine stuff, dropping to the second round, and then getting paid big money before everyone else in his draft class.
That "next best" level of player can usually get paid pretty well overseas. Euroleague contracts are something like $100K a year. Fringe NBA prospects can get paid pretty well.
Of course i'd imagine the median 10 year pay rate there is significantly less than the median BBA from Ross, but it is their choice to make.
The surge in TV money has made it to the point where even most second-round picks and undrafted guys are assured of getting at least two guaranteed years at over a million per year. If you hit, you can get to some fairly big money pretty quickly. For example, undrafted Fred Van Vleet had a higher salary this year than Ben Simmons, the top overall pick in the same draft. Even money overseas has grown at a pretty rapid pace. It's not nearly the risk it once was.
NBA salaries have grown at a rapid rate providing plenty of incentive for a borderline player to leave. For example, the 200th highest played player in the NBA (Ben McLemore) makes $5.5 Million per year. For being the 7th best player on his team. The 300th highest paid (Tyus Jones) even made $2.4M as a bench warmer.
Ben McLemore is still in the league and no way is he the 7th best player on his team. Tyus Jones had a bigger impact on n his team the Ben did. Iggy should have stayed and Charles was going no matter what Poole need to check his ego or whoever advised him to go pro needs to stay out of his ear. He needed at least one more year if not two to develop and if he did turn into a point guard he would have been drafted higher because his size would have been good for a PG.
This wasn't normal under Beilein and isn't normal amongst other college players. Poole and Iggy just really, really wanted to leave. They are exceptions to any rules and expecting guys to leave like they did in the future would have been very stupid of Beilein.
Unfortunately, the professional future of John Beilein is probably short. He understandably said, look I have a couple more years, I don't have as good a chance at a title as I thought I would have, I'm going to try the one other thing I haven't accomplished: coach at the highest level.
Yikes. Poole eval is brutal.
It's pretty obvious most of these guys really have no interest in being part of NCAA basketball at this point, and I don't blame them.
The comment around questioning Poole's love for basketball was brutal...but I can see why they said it.
I don't put much stock in mocks outside of legit insiders projecting early picks but saw a tweet from this morning looking at the latest 2-round mocks FWIW
Went through 8 updated mock drafts that include 2 rounds:
Poole: Drafted in 6 of 8. Highest 42, Avg (If picked): 50.3
Iggy: Drafted in 5 of 8. Highest 42, Avg (If Picked): 50.4
Matthews: Drafted in 1 of 8, Bleacher Report had him at 47
Whatever 3 mocks you used that don't show Iggy being drafted are garbage and should be thrown out. Iggy is getting drafted 100%
One of the biggest mock drafts on the Internet is draft express, they don’t have any of them getting drafted.
They must’ve taken into account what they read from Davis, because Iggy was projected in their second round up until the yesterday update.
I wouldn’t go strictly off any of these evals or mocks. Outside of the Lottery, picks 14-40 are often...a lottery.
Do you have something other than your feels to base that on? Everything I've seen says he isn't getting drafted.
Well. Check out his user name - I think your question is answered right there.
That is a good point.
Seems very accurate to me. Now obviously for selfish reasons, I wish they all had stayed at Michigan. From my perspective, when someone is clearly a lottery pick, you go to the NBA. But none of these were obvious top 10, even top 20 picks. Which leads to my question: given how these guys are viewed, what were they thinking? What kind of advice were they getting? I really don't understand. And yes, I completely understand Beilein being fed up with this and moving on.
Totally agree, and I think the majority of us do, regarding Iggy and Poole. Matthews was understandable however. He has already graduated and recognizes he's not likely to improve his draft stock with another year of college ball. I can't blame him at all for wanting to get on with the next phase of his life, whatever that may be.
I think Poole was similar to Zach Gentry in he didn't like "the twitter trolls" so he wants to "stick it to them" by leaving
Yeah, that ain't good. I can't say I disagree with him either.
Poole and Iggy should have stayed. Is there a chance either of them could still back out and return?
They're not coming back. Deadline to withdraw has passed.
This guy is right on the money. Impressive actually.
On a side note to this topic , I wouldn’t mind if the pistons take Romeo Langford
Wut? A guy who cannot shoot outside and just barrels to the rim charging over 11 guys? Don't we already have that in jersey number 1?
Ill take a hard pass on another fucking high volume inneficient shooter.
I'm with you there. A lot of Pistons fans have made the lazy comparison to Stanley Johnson, but Langford's floor is way higher since he's a better ball handler and finisher. When you add in that his jumper was likely affected by the torn hand ligament, I think he's their best shot at drafting an all star with the 15th pick.
Langford is intriguing and I wouldn't hate it if we took him but I really worry about his shot. Didn't shoot that well on the circuit before he hurt his hand. I'm leaning toward Alexander-Walker. Doesn't have the upside of a Langford or Porter but I like his game a lot. Shot is there, could run a little point and plays decent D. Not a freak athlete but hoops IQ is high. Could be a hidden gem and if not the floor is still fairly high.
The major issue with Langford is that the Pistons don't need another non-shooting guard. They need to replace Reggie Bullock (the one guard who was healthy and a plus shooter).
The team is built backwards for today's NBA.
Jordan Poole, "not a great athlete"
I kind of think that's a lazy evaluation...
Relative to NBA 3's, he's not a great athlete.