[Bryan Fuller]

It's Who They Are Comment Count

Brian October 31st, 2022 at 1:42 PM

There is a place. You are next to other people from opposing clans. Sometimes they say a thing. Then, you choose. You always choose. No matter what the circumstances are, or how you feel, you still have a choice. Michigan State had that choice at halftime. Patrick helpfully documented it. This is what happens in the Michigan tunnel when the hooting starts and nobody turns around to throw PB&Js:

I know that noise, now. It is the same one from Kirk Herbstreit's video from last year's Ohio State game and the same one from the Penn State game and the same one from this video. The opposing team goes down the tunnel; Michigan is delayed; Michigan is released. And then there is a perfect thing. 125 persons, give or take, all collectively go "YEEEEEAAAAAAAAAH". No intelligible sentiments. Just a vibe. A vibe that is apparently driving opposition football teams insane. 

Because this is no different than what happens every week. The officials delay Michigan every time. To engage, you have to turn around. That's a choice. It's a choice two football teams made over the past year, but not Michigan State. They receive one point.

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I have bad news about ensuing decisions.

It is also a choice to respond to something someone said by getting them on the ground and kicking them in the head or swinging your helmet at them. I wish this doesn't have to be said, but evidently it very much does: nothing Gemon Green or Ja'Den McBurrows could have done with their mouths warrants aggravated assault. Their major sin was not being from the state and thinking that a Michigan State program that was just blasted off the field could be trusted to not beat them with helmets and cleats. They thought this was a normal game against normal people, like it was against Penn State:

They were wrong, and now they know.

Everyone knows. This is who Michigan State is and will continue to be. MSU has posted some vague suspensions, probably because the Big Ten has made it clear that "nothing" will not fly as a punishment. The fired president of the university issued a boilerplate apology that is remarkable only in its source. Even that statement seemingly enraged the already-enraged board. Six hours later the board announced that Stanley's interim successor would be named at noon today. Maybe it'll be John Engler, since it's time to circle the wagons again.

Meanwhile the rest of the MSU media sphere is either downplaying the post-game incidents, blaming the people not swinging the helmets, or straight up approving. Rivals's Jim Comparoni wrote an article blaming Jim Harbaugh—last seen not kicking anyone—that Ace has helpfully deconstructed. Here's a taste from MSU's apologist-in-chief:

Radio host Rico Beard said nothing in the aftermath except to retweet someone saying "now u want to cry." Former MSU TE Chris Baker:

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Poke a random thread on the wretched hive of scum and villany that is the largest MSU message board on the internet and you'll get people who are 95% furious that Mel Tucker issued the same sort of boilerplate apology:

Mel Tucker is satisfied with his 95 million and has no fight left in him. Looked absolutely clownish making sure he shook Jim’s hand at the end of the game even though Jim had no time for him. And now confessing remorse without questioning Michigan’s role. He is broken. …

Stanley can choke on his mask and get fukced. GTFO already. …

If we do have a PR firm they are pathetic. The school needs to find a top notch one asap … Until we do that nothing will change in recruiting or perception of the athletics and school as a whole

I promise you that no one inside that program has an ounce of remorse this morning. The only ones who regret anything are the guys who wrote Mel Tucker a 95 million dollar check because he lucked into a Doak Walker winner buried on the Wake Forest depth chart.

Gemon Green is pressing charges, and he should, because he was assaulted by a program that has absolutely no ethics not imposed upon them by outside forces. It's not four guys who are the problem. There were dozens of Michigan State players and officials in that tunnel, and exactly none of them tried to intervene. I've been saying this for years. This is who they are.

But anyway. Bye.

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Michigan has bigger things to do this year than listen to little brother say the tunnel was too narrow and Jaden McBurrows shouldn't have been skipping.

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Nothing changes about the tunnel. It's been like that for 95 years and will be like that for another 95. If there's weaponized hooting now, so be it. It's not up to Michigan to respond like functional adults when someone does something mildly annoying. This our vibe now. Take the L, and get the fuck out of our tunnel.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

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[Barron]

you're the man now, dog-2535ac8789d1b499[1]

#1 Blake Corum. 177 yards on 33 carries and was one ankle tackle away from breaking a couple of long ones. Slipped out of tackle after tackle, beefed up when it was short yardage, would not go down to the first guy.

#2 Kris Jenkins. Major factor in Michigan's two fourth and one stops, and singlehandedly rescued a couple of other plays in situations where it looked like Michigan was beat by alignment. First among many in quest to hold down MSU's ground game.

#3 Jake Moody. Night would have been a lot more nervous if Moody hadn't gone 5/5 on field goals, including a 54-yarder.

Honorable mention: Mazi Smith also had a hand in the first fourth down stop and helped stone the MSU run game. JJ McCarthy's timely scrambles converted a few important first downs. Luke Schoonmaker had a productive day as a blocker and receiver. Rod Moore helped shut down the one thing that worked for MSU and prevented any dignity drive from scoring with an interception. The Offensive Line kept McCarthy clean (no sacks) and paved the way for a 276 yard rushing output.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

35: Blake Corum (#2 CSU, #2 Hawaii, HM UConn, #1 Maryland, #2 Iowa. HM Indiana, T2 PSU, #1 MSU)
20: JJ McCarthy (#1 Hawaii, #2 UConn, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, #3 Indiana, HM PSU, HM MSU)
16: Ronnie Bell (HM CSU, HM Hawaii, #1 UConn, #2 Indiana, HM PSU), Mike Morris (T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, #1 Iowa, T1 Indiana, #3 PSU)
13: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU, T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, HM MSU), Kris Jenkins (#3 UConn, T3 Hawaii, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana, #2 MSU)
12: The Offensive Line (#3 Iowa, #1 PSU, HM MSU)
7: Gemon Green (HM UConn, T2 Maryland, HM PSU)
5: DJ Turner (T2 Maryland), Junior Colson (#3 CSU, HM UConn, HM PSU), Luke Schoonmaker (T3 Maryland, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, HM MSU)
4: Eyabi Okie (HM CSU, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana),  Donovan Edwards (HM Hawaii, T2 PSU), Jake Moody (HM PSU, #3 MSU).
3: Derrick Moore (HM CSU, T1 Indiana), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU, T1 Indiana), Mason Graham (HM Hawaii, HM Iowa, HM Indiana), Rod Moore (HM CSU, HM Indiana, HM MSU)
2: Roman Wilson (HM CSU, HM Hawaii), Max Bredeson (T3 Maryland), Joel Honigford (T3 Maryland), Mike Sainristil (HM Maryland, HM Indiana)
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Makari Paige (HM Hawaii), Rayshaun Benny (HM Hawaii), Cornelius Johnson (HM Hawaii), , AJ Henning (HM UConn), Caden Kolesar (HM UConn), RJ Moten (HM Maryland),

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

MSU runs six plays in the third quarter for a total of eight yards as Michigan puts the game to bed.

Honorable mention: Moody hits a 54-yarder. Snap hijinks result in a turnover. Corum is eventually the recipient on a very complicated play from the two that scores. MSU OT takes an incredibly stupid penalty on their July drive, terminating it.

image?MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Michigan State decides to go American History X on a couple of Michigan players in the tunnel after the game.

Honorable mention: Nearly back-to-back mossings equal a quick MSU touchdown and their only lead of the game. Cornelius Johnson fumbles on Michigan's first drive. A rad Ronnie Bell catch is overturned and Michigan refuses to go for it on fourth and three, so Brad Robbins doesn't get a second straight game without a punt.

[After THE JUMP: actual football!]

OFFENSE

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[Barron]

A declaration of intent. Michigan ran duo on their first play—duo is more or less inside zone where the doubles on the DTs are extremely long—and bashed Jacob Slade off the LOS en route to seven yards. The thing I was the most wrong about in the lead-up to this game was how Michigan would do against the MSU DTs. There were hiccups from time to time, but the ease with which Michigan gashed the MSU interior DL was eye-opening. I don't think MSU expected that, either, given their gameplan. They kept two deep safeties with a light box virtually the whole game.

What we talk about when we talk about Corum. I barely talk about this dude anymore because there's nothing to say that you don't see on the field. But good grasshopper God:

It is insane that he went from a guy who generally went down at first contact to 100% Mike Hart in one offseason. The leg drive, the churn, the ability to squat Yugoslavia. This is like a wide receiver adding a third arm.

Two deep shells everywhere. It is absolutely wild that team after team is sitting their safeties in Uzbekistan when they go up against Michigan's punishing ground game. Iowa did it, PSU did it, MSU did it. I guess the best thing teams come up with is "hope they stall out in the redzone," which Michigan has done, more or less, in all of those games. Michigan hasn't taken any deep shots in forever because they're just not there.

Redzone issues. I think a big chunk of this is playcalling. First, though:  I have to withdraw some Ronnie Bell slander from the weekend; the play I though he ran past the EMLOS on was not his deal. Keegan got slanted under and Bredeson got cut off; that was Bredeson's guy. Corum didn't make the unnatural cut away from the intended point of attack, and then Michigan's behind the chains.

But after that you've got:

  • Zone read from the eight, with a safety charging and nerfing it.
  • A play with one guy in the endzone on third down.

Next time out they score a touchdown with Corum, Corum, Corum. I think at this point you've got to make that your primary approach. Beef it up and dogpile your way in.

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dingers only [Barron]

A philosophy of QB runs. We touched on this in the PSU UFR. If you're not in a Tebow/Vick/Denard situation QB runs should be plays with big upside, because you're risking the most important player on the team. Redzone carries generally do not carry big upside. Also, if you're inside the ten the safeties are not deep and you do not have a whole lot of time to read them. McCarthy's first carry in the redzone would have worked great if the safety wasn't five yards from the LOS when the mesh happened.

Same thing happened on the arc run on drive #3; the DE was beat to the corner and Schoonmaker kicked a dude out but the safety is right there.

Low redzone QB runs either need to be pure QB runs—no reads—or so baffling to the defense that they are not prepared for it at all. Michigan tried this once by motioning Edwards to a quads bunch and having McCarthy run a draw when the numbers were in favor, but one of the MSU DEs made a play.

Sitting duck. Jacoby Windmon played at UNLV last year. He's 250 pounds. He was a DE for a chunk of this year, and then MSU put him at linebacker two weeks ago. I was momentarily irritated that Michigan didn't run at a five man box on their second drive, but then all became clear:

It's one thing to get dusted by Edwards like that, and entirely another to have a tight end who weighs more than you repeatedly put you in the rear-view mirror:

MSU's other linebacker, Cal Halliday, was lauded by Blackledge as a guy who doesn't wear any gloves or whatnot, and then it was immediately demonstrated that he can't run, either. The days of MSU linebackers being frustratingly good no matter their dubious recruiting backgrounds has come to a resounding end.

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speaking of Halliday [Fuller]

Bail O'Clock. McCarthy's designed runs didn't do a whole lot in this game, largely because they were all in the redzone. Scrambles, though, were suddenly a huge factor. On the fourth and three MSU played it soft, sending a corner blitz while dropping a bunch of guys on the LOS and opening up a lane up the gut. McCarthy was decisive:

There was one run on which McCarthy was gone so fast that we had a discussion on the podcast about whether that was called or not. That, like the underneath stuff at Windmon, seemed like something that had been hammered home as part of the gameplan.

McCarthy takes. Not a great day for him, with a couple of misses that he usually does not make. That's the second game in a row that his previously uncanny accuracy has been less uncanny. Hopefully not a developing trend. I do not agree with Todd Blackledge about the throw to Schoonmaker in the endzone: that ball was exactly where it had to be to prevent a PBU. Your guy and your guy only had a shot, and Schoonmaker had his hands on it.

I do not think this is a catch. Tar and feather me but this violates the "did the ball touch the goddamned ground" principle:

Now, if you want to say something like "if you get two feet down with possession it's a catch," okay, I'm listening. As currently called that's not a catch.

DEFENSE

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[Fuller]

The one thing that worked. Keon Coleman is 6'4" and a former basketball player so he's likely to moss people and he did so a couple of times on MSU's touchdown drive. The first one was just the back shoulder thing that happens. Also you may as well stay for clip #2 here since they're back to back:

Yes, that is OPI on #2, and the long catch and run on Turner was also Coleman pushing off to generate separation—when's the last time DJ Turner was that far away from a WR on a hitch?

However, I mean… I don't expect those to be called. I sort of expect the second one to get called after Green was demonstrative and correct after #1, but neither one of those is the blatant WTF kind of play that generally gets called—let us remember that last year Turner got called for PI on an absolutely boggling OPI incident—and if I'm charting I file that under "rubbin's racin" and give whoever did it a gold star. Michigan DBs have to get a little Brandon Watson in them here. They are not illegal enough, IMO.

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no more soup for you [Barron]

Michigan solved this in the second half. First MSU took a deep shot at Reed and DJ Turner just ran that guy's route for him, and then when they went back to the Coleman well on third and six Rod Moore got over the top:

Michigan responded immediately after the TD drive, actually, but the push-off and a scramble got Coleman another couple of chunk plays.

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Jenkins in the background surveying the results of his chaos [Fuller]

This DT pairing. Neither Mazi Smith nor Kris Jenkins is Mo Hurst. Interior pass rush is not frequent; neither guy is putting up +20. But combined they are a problem. MSU's first We Make Statement fourth down attempt was fourth and a foot, and they gave it to Elijah Collins, who's like 230. How do you prevent a guy who weighs that much from converting? Well, both of your DTs winning helps a hell of a lot.

Jenkins was the key guy on the turnover on downs midway through the second, as well. On third down he stacks and sheds at the POA; on fourth down his slant across the face of his guy blows up all the frontside gaps and leaves the RB swimming in Michigan players. This is also a two play clip:

Maybe that second one is just an RPS +3 as Barrett's going to wipe those gaps anyway and then there are three unblocked guys. Still! Jenkins. Good at football.

A spot so bad it got fixed. One point to the replay official on that play, by the way. Michigan twitter was infinitely resigned to this even when it went to the booth because spots so rarely get overturned. It's extremely easy to cop out and not "decide the game" instead of making the best judgment you have available, and even though it was clearly short it takes a little bravery to actually call it short.

Not quite Woodson. Rod Moore got a pretty picture out of this, at least:

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[Fuller]

I have concerns. The knock on Green for his career is that he has been in position but has been unable to make plays on the ball. He sort of shed that early in the year but what he was managing to do was make catches tough; he still didn't make plays on the ball. Against OSU Michigan is probably not going to have the luxury of rotating a safety over whoever he's matching up against, because OSU has a ground game that is not pathetic. I think they're going to have to let Green go one and one and live with the results.

Also in concerns. Michigan's pass rush was pretty middling for the second straight game against a meh offensive line. Last year Michigan did much of its defensive work by obliterating Stroud, and that's still the way to slow down the OSU offense. Stroud's (relative) weakness remains dealing with pressure, and I'm not sure Michigan's going to get much that's organic.

Pretty good though? Some of this is opponent related—there's a reason these are all Big Ten teams—but dang:

76% of opponent drives do not average four yards a play.

SPECIAL TEAMS

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[Fuller]

Thank you, Sean McDonough. This was cathartic:

I predict a 2% decline in usage of that phrase by Michigan State fans.

Cumong man. Barringer's first punt hit a dude standing five yards out of bounds at the 30. Michigan got it… at the 30. "Official guesses where the punt went out of bounds" remains college football's most arbitrary decision.

Cumong man part 2. End of the first half, MSU is punting with 45 seconds on the clock, Michigan has 3 timeouts, it's fourth and three. This is prime territory to set up a return and see what happens. If you screw up, MSU has the ball near their 40 with time to do something. If you set up the return you're more or less in the same situation. Instead MSU pulls M offsides with a clapping gambit and we get to fret a bit before Mike Morris sacks Thorne.

Moody == kicker Corum. That is all.

MISCELLANOUS

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"but that guy's waving at me" [Barron]

WELL HEY GONNA BE A THICC SECTION TODAY. Thicc like MSU tight ends. Yeah.

SHAKY CELL PHONE CAMS WILL NOT BE RELIED UPON. ABC has the footage:

Throw the book at them.

ON THE TOUCHING OF MEL TUCKER'S HEAD. Don't do this?

Seth reports that this guy has been banned from Michigan Stadium. So, yeah, don't do that.

HEY THAT'S OUR DOOR. Mel Tucker was steamed.

This pretty much has to be about the post-game assaults, as it's not like the outcome of this game was in any doubt in the fourth quarter. This video literally has the helmet-swinging incident in it, so Tucker's protestations that he didn't know what happened are unlikely to be true.

Also: Tucker appears to have some issues keeping his shit together. Virtually every cut to him on the sideline was Tucker enraged at the officials.

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Michigan fans have plenty of experience with enraged coaches yelling at officials, but when it was a problem for Harbaugh he dialed it back. I think there are some penalties in Tucker's future.

DEEPLY IRONIC GIVEN, YOU KNOW, EVERYTHING. MSU's sideline hopping up and down for a PF flag on DJ Turner on this was some kind of ironic:

Particularly enjoy the frantic signaling of targeting on a hit that came nowhere near the opponent's head.

On Plan B. Matt Hinton is an astute observer of the playoff ins and outs and thinks this is the pecking order:

I am personally skeptical that Michigan would get in over a one-loss conference champion if their big wins are Penn State and Illinois, both at home, but Matt's saying there's a chance. I have a dollar that says the committee will take the opportunity to Make A Statement about weak nonconference schedules, and who's to say they're wrong? At that point they're splitting hairs anyway.

Key games next weekend:

  • Clemson vs Notre Dame. Yup, cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame. Clemson's biggest tests after this are middling Louisville and South Carolina outfits. The ACC championship game is all but assured to be against UNC, which is 37th in SP+ and lost by 13 to ND. Go Irish.
  • UGA-Tennessee. I don't think it matters much, but we will be rooting for the winner to win the SECCG, because "beat UGA or Tennessee and lost to Bama in the SECCG" is a bid.
  • TCU vs Texas Tech. Obvious. Texas is up next for TCU, then Baylor, so they'll still have a number of loseable games. Connelly has TCU as the B12 favorite but at only 41%, so they're the most vulnerable team ahead of hypothetical one-loss Michigan. 

The chances that enough teams go down in front of Michigan to get them in at 11-1 are not good. Michigan's best argument is probably "look at the fancystats":

epa

They can lose a competitive game to OSU and still be pretty clearly one of the best four teams. I don't think they can lose that game and be one of the four most deserving teams.

We have to chill out about roughing the passer penalties. MSU got hit with one in this game when McCarthy was moderately thwacked by a guy trying to get his arm up while being blocked. Spartan's arm did make contact with McCarthy's helmet but not in a way that was intentional or dangerous.

HERE

Best and Worst:

On the day Michigan had 9 meaningful drives and they scored points on 7 of them, fumbled one away, and wound up punting for the first time since a minute and a half into the 4th quarter against Indiana back on October 8th.  The average drive length 8 plays for 46 yards, and even that’s a bit misleading since one of UM’s scoring drives came after MSU’s punter couldn’t quite save the second air-mailed snap of the game and got tackled at the 8 yard line.  Throw that out and we’re talking about these taxing, nomadic drives across the field that clearly sapped whatever spirit MSU had in them.  In that way it was like watching a boa constrictor kill it’s prey; it’s fine letting the meal struggle a bit so it can compress even tighter.  MSU on the day had 2 meaningful drives and they were able to string them along consecutively; one was the aforementioned 75-yard TD drive where Coleman made some nice catches and the other was a 10-play, 68-yard affair after Michigan regained the lead where they again went to Coleman a couple of times and were ultimately stopped on 4th-and-1 in the red zone because they ran a comically slow-developing run play after a timeout that was dead-to-rights the moment it was sent to Thorne’s helmet radio.  But after that stalled drive MSU didn’t create double-digits in yards on a drive until their final one of the game, which ended in a Rod Moore pick.

State of Our Open Threads:

We come now to the normalized values:

Indiana holds fast as our most stressful experience this season, with Maryland not far behind. As I have mentioned before, I very much doubt we will beat the UConn game in terms of relative serenity on the boards, although we do play Rutgers next Saturday and that game could very well be the most serene conference game. We shall see, I suppose.

ELSEWHERE

One point is issued to the Daily:

Maize and Blue Nation:

Michigan possessed the ball for over 40 minutes, ran 59% of their plays from the MSU side of the fifty, and only punted once. It was an overpowering victory for Michigan – which is becoming a trend lately,  one that obviously is frustrating the hell out of opponents, who seemingly have no answers for what is happening on the field, so that frustration spills out in the tunnel.

Players are always going to be passionate and emotional – especially after a loss. But to take out those frustrations the way Michigan State players did after the game has no place at any level of any sport.

Hoover Street Rag:

I should like this game more than I do.  I did deeply enjoy the era of assured certainty of the late Carr era, where Michigan would show up and beat Michigan State. Even as Michigan was lost in the desert during the Dantonio era, there was this certainty of dumb things happening to Michigan.  But this entire week felt like a full Kobayashi Maru.  If Michigan wins in anything other than blowout fashion, it will be an indictment of the season, to say nothing of the reaction if, once again, an unranked Michigan State finds a way to spoil a Michigan season in the name of making their own. 

Nick Baumgardner:

The line of scrimmage

This wasn’t even close, on either side of the ball. If you’re looking for reasons why this game was totally controlled by Michigan from about the 10-minute mark of the second quarter on, it’s the line of scrimmage. Being able to compete up front has been Michigan State’s recipe in this game for years. It was the biggest piece of Mark Dantonio’s success in the series. Right now for Tucker, though, the inability to win here is a serious problem that won’t be fixed in the transfer portal. …

Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith ate up a number of attempts to run the ball right at him, including Michigan State’s fourth-and-short attempt in the first quarter. Smith and fellow interior DT Kris Jenkins had 10 tackles combined in this game, which is kind of insane for two guys whose job is primarily to occupy space for linebackers.

Matt Fortuna:

Michigan State is a program that prides itself on punching up — on reaching higher, as former coach Mark Dantonio would call it.

But this? This was literally punching down. And it came after a snoozer of a showing in the biggest game of the year, a loss that will now force the $95 million coach to win three of his final four games just to become bowl eligible — with two of those four on the road against ranked teams.

Michigan State had amassed minus-1 yards in the second half until its final drive. Michigan had scored on seven consecutive possessions after an opening-drive fumble, never punting until the 5:52 mark of the game.

Pat Forde:

Don’t blame the tunnel. That’s a cop-out, an excuse, a sidestepping of what really happened.

Don’t dismiss it as a boys-will-be-boys scrape. What Michigan State players did in that tunnel was an assault, and no one should be surprised or act outraged if charges are filed.

Don’t wave it off as the simple byproduct of a heated rivalry. There are a lot of teams and schools that hate each other without the postgame scene turning as ugly as it did in the Big House on Saturday night.

Comments

Blue_In_Texas

October 31st, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^

Does anyone know if Eyabi Okie played? Didn't see him out there, didn't see him as having any stats in the box score, and have not seen anything about being injured. 

Needs

October 31st, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^

It was very annoying that Thorne had the presence of mind to knock that down. That was going to be a very hilarious pick-6, and I was legitimately curious to see how fast Okie is.

In general, the last two games have featured so few defensive plays (huge number of 3 and outs interspersed with 1 chunk play driven TD drive) that players in positions that see a lot of rotation, and EDGE seems to be the main one, are necessarily going to have less opportunity to make an impression.

HooverStreetRage

October 31st, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^

Like Brian, I was also disappointed that we didn't go for it on 4th-and-3 late, to give Brad Robbins a 2nd consecutive puntless game. What I haven't seen mentioned is that with Rutgers on tap for this weekend, there's a good chance it could have been THREE puntless games in a row!

stephenrjking

October 31st, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^

The two-high safeties thing really is interesting. Because Michigan has consistently gashed teams and seen them flatly refuse to compensate by bringing their safeties into a position where they can factor in the running game between the 20s.

Thus, after many, many games: Michigan runs for hundreds of yards and wins handily and people like me wring our hands about how we'd like to see more from the passing game.

And, well, I *do* want to see more. Because you can make big plays and score TDs in the passing game, often bypassing the red zone. Michigan scored key TDs against OSU and Iowa last year with big plays that didn't require tense and-goal snaps from the 8 or 9. 

But that doesn't mean that Michigan isn't reasonable in the general play mix. If I'd like to see Michigan pick apart zones at the intermediate level more, it would still be absolutely insane for Michigan not to unleash its elite running attack on teams that basically sit back and invite Michigan to run it. You want teams to take advantage of the weak spots of a defense, and, well, Michigan does.

That Michigan has done so against pretty good run defense personnel is... very encouraging. 

Regarding MSU: Most of the stuff about the attacks I've said in threads. At this point, the conference and probably law enforcement needs to step in.

And Michigan needs to begin to look beyond. Because, unlike MSU, Michigan has important football games still to play this year. 

dragonchild

October 31st, 2022 at 2:53 PM ^

Does Roman Wilson terrify them that much, that they'd rather take their chances with the best RB in the country?  It's weird.

But, I mean, MSU did just hold us to two TDs so I can see Ohio State doing the same thing.  Stall us in the red zone, because 29 ain't gonna be enough when they haven't scored less than forty since their first game.

J. Redux

October 31st, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^

This Michigan team may be better than last year’s.

SP+, week 9, last year, Michigan was at 20.8, with a 15.7 on defense.  This year, they’re at 27.2, with a 12.5 (!!) on defense — a full field goal better than last year’s team.

I’m not saying it’ll be easy to win in Columbus, or even that Michigan should be favored.  I’m not conceding that they’ll score more than 27 points, though.  As Brian pointed out on last year’s postgame podcast, that easily could have been 19 OSU points; they didn’t settle for field goals in the second half because they played two scores behind the whole time. In a closer game, where Michigan doesn’t convert in the red zone, Michigan might have won 24-19 or 27-19.

Vasav

October 31st, 2022 at 5:26 PM ^

After watching Iowa and PSU have success containing OSU's O in the early parts of the last couple of games, I think the same recipe as last year can work. Yes, I'd like to get TDs not FGs - and a road game makes it much tougher. But OSU had 1 TD in their first 9 drives on Saturday (3x3&Outs, RZ end of half, a 1st-down&out, and 3 FGs) and likewise had 1 TD in their first 10 drives against Iowa (a scoop'n'score, a pick, 2x no-1st-down FGs, 2 other short FG drives that started inside the Iowa 35, 2 punts, and the end of half).

Michigan's gameplan leads to less drives (10 M drives in both games, vs 16 for OSU vs Iowa and 13 vs PSU). On a per-drive basis, we actually scored more against PSU than Ohio did, and while we didn't do so against Iowa their O was greatly assisted by their field position.

We'll certainly need to score TDs on them. But there is clearly a way to slow them down akin to last year. And I think our D is capable of doing what Iowa and PSU did, and our O is more capable of scoring on Ohio's D than Iowa's and PSU's. I think the roadmap for a win looks a lot like it did last year.

stephenrjking

October 31st, 2022 at 3:13 PM ^

The crazy bit here is that the choice to run with two-high appears completely rational given the results. Yes, Michigan is guaranteed to run wild, but in multiple games Michigan has been materially better and statistically dominant over inferior teams but the game has remained an open question at halftime.

Given that, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see OSU do the same thing. 

And I strongly suspect Michigan has a bank of specialized RZ plays ready. 

AWAS

October 31st, 2022 at 4:59 PM ^

The crazy thing to me is that playing 2 high safeties pretty much assures that your defense will be on the field for 70+ plays and 35+ minutes.  That pummeling takes a toll, and even in a close game on the scoreboard, leaves the defense at a decided disadvantage during winning time.  

WampaStompa

October 31st, 2022 at 3:23 PM ^

I get what you mean, but a part of the reason why they only scored 27 against us last year is because our offense limited the number of possessions they got. I know their defense looks better this year, but I'm still not convinced that they're going to be able to prevent us from slowly marching downfield and controlling time of possession when they just allowed about 500 yards of offense to the same Penn State team that Michigan obliterated. 

WampaStompa

October 31st, 2022 at 3:15 PM ^

Yeah this was my big takeaway from the article too. Very strange that Iowa, Penn State, and now MSU all bet big on their run defense and busted, yet refused to bring the safeties down to help even when it was evident that they were being steamrolled.  

I do want to point out though that the one team in our last 4 game stretch who didn't park their safeties deep was Indiana. And McCarthy paid it off with a 300 yard passing game. While Corum still got his yards too, of course. It'll be interesting to see how McCarthy fares over the final third of the season here if and when defenses accept the reality that they need to reinforce their run defense.

bronxblue

October 31st, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^

That is a big reason I didn't get that mad about the passing game this week - MSU was just handing out free 10-yard completions to TEs and 5-yard carries to backs so it would be foolish not to take them.  Now, do I think UM could throw the ball on this defense if they lined up otherwise?  Probably, but it does seem like teams want UM to plow down the field and then kick FGs, which I guess sorta works in theory but in practice leads to games like this one or PSU last game where the opponent is hoping for luck to win.

smwilliams

October 31st, 2022 at 8:18 PM ^

The analogy I used in the game thread was that Michigan is like a boxer that works the body all fight. Yes, throwing haymakers is more entertaining, but this offense specifically just wears defenses down. It happened against Indiana, Penn State, and now Michigan State. The 2nd half rolls around and the D has absorbed shot after shot and just nopes out. MSU ran 6 plays in the 3rd Q! 

And that was the identity last year too. We’re going to beat you up and by the 4th Q, you’ll quit. 

The reason it’s worked the past two years seems obvious to me. These are the best OL and the best RBs, Harbaugh has had at Michigan and importing Hart as RB coach seems to have done wonders for the RBs vision. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

October 31st, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^

FWIW, Dan Wetzel also had a good take on Sparty's thuggery.

The entire sports world is looking at the shitbags in green and white and being completely appalled, and Sparties are....I mean you can't even call what they do "bothsidesing" because somehow they think what their shitbags did was a restrained and completely reasonable response to.....whatever it is McBurrows and Green did that nobody has ever seen on tape.

dragonchild

October 31st, 2022 at 2:52 PM ^

They are bothsidesing though.  I'm hearing it called a "scuffle", "fight", "fracas", "altercation". . . that last one was TMD fercrissakes.  It's like no one who writes articles for a living has bothered to watch a single clip, when the clip is the story.  Either that, or bothsidesing has become so Pavlovian that no one in media knows how to do anything else anymore, when the first clip out you can't even see a blue jersey because the guy's on the ground getting pounded by a mob.  I'm all "well that's what the media is now" because I'm out of disbelief.  I'd expect them to bothsides the day/night cycle at this point.

gbdub

October 31st, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^

FWIW I think a lot of the articles that came out with “altercation” type neutral language came out really early, and there’s a probably healthy tendency to avoid taking too strong a stance before the full context is available lest a later piece of evidence makes you look like an ass. (For example AND I’M NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENED if a later video were to show McBurrows cold cocking a Sparty before getting jumped that would make “assault” seem problematic). As more days go by without any mitigating evidence, I suspect you’ll see more non-Sparty media take a less neutral view (as Forde did - he calls it “assault” straight up). 

gbdub

October 31st, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^

You guys, I put it in all caps. I AM NOT SPECULATING ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED. 

I am merely saying that, as of Saturday night when a lot of these articles got written, it was still feasible that another shoe was going to drop that made the situation more complicated. Calling it an “altercation” in light of that uncertainty covers your bases. 

As time passes with nothing new except stuff that makes the Spartans look even worse, yeah I would expect new articles to be less neutral in their language. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

October 31st, 2022 at 3:41 PM ^

I guess my point is that the Sparties themselves have gone past bothsidesing the issue and into flat-out blaming our guys and exonerating theirs.  This comes from literally decades of being utterly incapable of generating one ounce of respect for Michigan.  It's no coincidence that it's Ohio State fans, and not Michigan State fans, who do things like cross the trenches to raise money for Chad Carr.

gbdub

October 31st, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^

This seems really weird. I assume the football team has a full time PT staff. They aren’t planning on a bit of overtime after a rivalry night game? 

If nothing else you want McBurrows to have a few minutes to celebrate with his team. Sucks to take that from him just because he’s hurt.