jake moody

Hello, fan of an NFL team. MGoBlog excruciatingly scouts every Michigan play, and scores them to inform our coverage. Since mi atleta es su atleta now, here we share what we're sharing.

QUICKLY: Shoulda-been two-time Groza winner, best kicker in school history at a Special Teams U.

DRAFT POSITION VS PROJECTION: Round 3, Pick 36 (Resolution JC-2A pick), 99th overall to San Francisco, the highest kicker taken since 2016. He was clearly the top kicker in the draft.

NFL COMP: Jason Hanson. Automatic inside the 50, and range extends to about 59.

POSITIVES: The ball always goes through the uprights. Unflappable. Has done it on the biggest stage and all kinds of conditions.

NEGATIVES: Accuracy falls off from deep; might only be a 50% guy from 55+.

STATS:

Points Above Average is our house kicking stat based on FBS averages from each distance. For example college kickers since 2012 are about 97% on extra points, which are worth one point, ergo the kicker is credited for 3% of a point (IE +0.03 points) for making an XP, and charged a loss of 97% of a point (-0.97) for a miss. There's also a graduated distance bonus past 50 yards because most teams won't even attempt a kick at those distances.

Adding 40 points of value to a team over the course of a career is insane. Adding 25 points above average in a single season is even more incredible. Moody's 2021 and 2022 seasons are the highest PAAs we have on record at Michigan—the next best was 2012 Brendan Gibbons at +13, and 2019 Quinn Nordin at 6.6. His career dwarfs that of any other candidate.

[After THE JUMP: The Pax Specialistica.]

With 13:22 remaining in the game, TCU led Michigan 41-38. After the game seemingly reached its conclusion in the late stages of the third quarter following another JJ McCarthy pick six, Michigan had engineered a stunning reversal in momentum, scoring 16 points in just 50 seconds thanks to a turnover. They trimmed the TCU lead from 19 to 3 in the blink of an eye and now its defense was hungry. They stuffed the run on first down and Mike Morris batted down a slant thrown by Max Duggan on second down. It was now 3rd & 8, a chance to get off the field, and a window for the offense to keep the train of momentum going.

Rod Moore raced down to the line of scrimmage moments before the ball was snapped, tipping an all out blitz. Michigan went Cover 0 and TCU had the perfect playcall, something Michigan fans remember all too well: a crossing route. A small pick was set by slot receiver Taye Barber on Will Johnson, switching DJ Turner onto star WR Quentin Johnston. Max Duggan felt pressure, stepped back, and delivered a good ball to Johnston at the line of scrimmage. Turner angled himself towards Johnston, dove for the shoestrings, and missed. Johnston turned it upfield and no one was home for the Wolverines, given the nature of the play call. 76 yards, touchdown. 48-38 TCU.

ESPN has TCU's win probability jumping from 57.5% pre-snap to 87.9% after the extra point went through the uprights. That play may well have decided the game and in many ways, it encapsulated the game. Michigan's coaching was bested by that of TCU's, and Michigan's players came so close to making the decisive play, but blew it. The moments of brilliance from numerous players were subdued by the miscues, from coaching to the players, and the final verdict, a six point TCU victory in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl, will sting for everyone associated with the Michigan Football program for a long, long time. 

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[Patrick Barron]

Michigan got the football first and ripped off a colossal run on the opening play from scrimmage, a 54 yard scamper for Donovan Edwards after Michigan's OL put a TCU safety in the wrong gap. Michigan instantly was inside the TCU 25 and moved the ball inside the 10. On 2nd & G from the six, the Wolverine OL took a false start to back the Michigan offense up. Kalel Mullings was stopped after a few yards and on 3rd & G, JJ McCarthy went on an adventuresome scramble, one that was successful enough that it pitted Jim Harbaugh with an interesting decision.

Faced with 4th & G from the 2, Michigan took a timeout to talk it over and what they came out with was nothing short of baffling. It was the triple reverse Philly Special, with the intention of having Colston Loveland throw the ball to McCarthy. McCarthy wasn't open, Loveland was out of options, and took a -8 "sack" that not just blew a chance at points, but also gave away the advantageous field position conveyed by going for it on 4th down at the goal line. 

The Wolverine defense came out and made things right, though. They engineered a quick three-and-out, and the Michigan offense got the ball right back. Disaster ensued. McCarthy looked for Ronnie Bell and briefly had him open. The ball was out too late, giving TCU's Bud Clark time to close and jump the route. Clark snatched the ball and took it to the house. 7-0 TCU. 

This was the first game-altering play, and the momentum swing it caused was humongous. Michigan's next offensive possession was a dud, ending as McCarthy targeted a slipping Cornelius Johnson instead of a wide open Tyler Morris on 3rd down. They punted to TCU and the Frogs found some offensive rhythm. Max Duggan scrambled for a first down and a blown TFL by Rod Moore kept TCU in business and once in the red zone, the purple and black used Duggan's legs to pay it off. A zone read TD by Duggan from one yard out put the ball in the end zone and despite even yardage between the two teams, the score stood 14-0 TCU. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the ultimate rollercoaster]

11/19/2022 – Michigan 19, Illinois 17 – 11-0, 8-0 Big Ten

Blake Corum got a screen, and he got blocking. Colston Loveland wiped a guy. Olu Oluwatimi harassed the nearest safety until he could only desperately chase Corum down the sideline. He lined up for an ankle tackle that probably wasn't going to work. It didn't work. Corum… ran out of bounds.

What? How? What? In the stands I assumed that what I saw is not actually what I saw. In the press box the announcers were so baffled that they didn't even mention it. But in this Zapruder dawn a couple days later we can process the event: Blake Corum just daintily pranced out of bounds because of the vague idea that an Illinois safety might contact him, from behind, maybe.

div/0 fatal error

Correction: div/0, near fatal error.

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The thing is: Corum did this on his first carry, too.

JJ McCarthy is out there getting lit up because he thinks it's the Big Ten championship game and instead of using that Corum just heads out of bounds, with no impact from a defender at all. Here's a picture of McCarthy dying inside.

"ow" –McCarthy [Barron]

I have seen Blake Corum run the ball enough to know this is not a usual event, and I have seen Michigan games under Jim Harbaugh where the opponent is not given much respect. Earlier this year McCarthy was bailing to the sideline on QB keepers even when this made little sense. I know "save hits where you can" is a philosophy this program employs, but to apply it to Corum, who's coming off a 29-carry day against Nebraska? This was the grand bull-moose of all such disrespect events.

Sorry, Sparty. You're not even the most disrespected team in the league anymore.

You just have to wonder: Schoonmaker, Morris, and Jones all warmed up but did not play. (Jones did get in on a goal-line package.) Keegan and Edwards were in street clothes but had no lower body issues, as your author observed pre-game. AJ Henning was mysteriously absent. Corum re-entered for two plays in the second half and then sat out the rest of the game. Even deep into the second half Illinois was sitting on a lead and Michigan didn't unearth any of the guys who were close enough to health to warm up. Exactly how much focus was placed on the Ohio State game over the past week, month, and year, and how much of this game was a big ol' game of chicken with the Buckeyes?

Probably a lot, and judging by results around the country Michigan was far from alone. Ohio State was in a three-point game with Maryland with six minutes left; they got outgained for the third time in four weeks. Tennessee got ambushed by South Carolina. USC's defense went from mostly notional to an astral presence trying to affect anything in the real world. Even mighty Georgia slopped their way to a 16-6 win over Kentucky. The entirety of the college football world was just trying to scrape by on the penultimate weekend of the regular season.

I kind of hate this approach because it leads to things like this game and, more egregiously, last year's Rutgers outing. It feels like the finger of the football gods passing judgment on you when Corum gets bashed in the knee during the game where it seems like he's been instructed to avoid getting bashed in the knee whenever possible. It feels bad, man.

But we've been here long enough to know that whatever Michigan looks like in the games where they're just trying to get to The Game isn't what they look like against Ohio State. This team has had the luxury of a lot of opponents they could get away with powerfully disrespecting; hopefully they have used that time to prepare a veritable smorgasbord of pain for OSU.

Decks are clear. Armageddon is a go. Break them.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Bryan Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Uh, Well, Still Blake Corum. If you are personally responsible for 150 yards of offense in a half of play and generate a lot of that yourself you still end up here. Even if you probably should have been responsible for 200.

#2 Mason Graham. Graham didn't get starters snaps but was the dude making short-yardage stops repeatedly as Jenkins and Smith had some issues. Four total tackles vastly underestimates his performance.

#3 Jake Moody. Nice having the reigning Groza winner at your service in a game you win by kicking four field goals. Winner was straight down the pipe, and he converted one into the heavy, swirling wind.

Honorable mention: Ronnie Bell battled with Witherspoon all day and came up with a key punt return. Colston Loveland had three catches and should have had at least five.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

51: Blake Corum (#2 CSU, #2 Hawaii, HM UConn, #1 Maryland, #2 Iowa. HM Indiana, T2 PSU, #1 MSU, T1 Rutgers, #3 Nebraska, #1 Illinois)
23: The Offensive Line (#3 Iowa, #1 PSU, HM MSU, #3 Rutgers, #1 Nebraska)
21: JJ McCarthy (#1 Hawaii, #2 UConn, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, #3 Indiana, HM PSU, HM MSU. HM Rutgers)
18: Ronnie Bell (HM CSU, HM Hawaii, #1 UConn, #2 Indiana, HM PSU, HM Nebraska, HM Illinois)
17: Mike Morris (T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, #1 Iowa, T1 Indiana, #3 PSU, HM Rutgers),
15:  Kris Jenkins (#3 UConn, T3 Hawaii, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana, #2 MSU, HM Rutgers, HM Nebraska)
14: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU, T3 Hawaii, HM Maryland, HM Iowa, HM MSU, HM Nebraska)
13: Mason Graham (HM Hawaii, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, #2 Nebraska, #2 Illinois)
9: Donovan Edwards (HM Hawaii, T2 PSU, T1 Rutgers)
7: Gemon Green (HM UConn, T2 Maryland, HM PSU), Jake Moody (HM PSU, #3 MSU, #3 Illinois).
5: DJ Turner (T2 Maryland), Junior Colson (#3 CSU, HM UConn, HM PSU), Luke Schoonmaker (T3 Maryland, HM Iowa, HM Indiana, HM MSU), Michael Barrett (#2 Rutgers).
4: Eyabi Okie (HM CSU, HM Iowa, T1 Indiana).
3: Derrick Moore (HM CSU, T1 Indiana), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU, T1 Indiana), Rod Moore (HM CSU, HM Indiana, HM MSU)
2: Roman Wilson (HM CSU, HM Hawaii), Max Bredeson (T3 Maryland), Joel Honigford (T3 Maryland), Mike Sainristil (HM Maryland, HM Indiana)
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Makari Paige (HM Hawaii), Rayshaun Benny (HM Hawaii), Cornelius Johnson (HM Hawaii), , AJ Henning (HM UConn), Caden Kolesar (HM UConn), RJ Moten (HM Maryland), Will Johnson (HM Rutgers), CJ Stokes (HM Nebraska), Andrel Anthony (HM Nebraska), Colston Loveland (HM Illinois)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Moody's field goal to win is right down the middle.

Honorable mention: Corum busts out on the first play from scrimmage; TD drive ensues from there. Bell's punt return sets Michigan up for a field goal. Graham stuffs a fourth and short.

?MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Corum takes a helmet to the knee, causing him to (maybe) fumble and more or less knocking him out for the duration. Insult to injury.

Honorable mention: Brown bursts for a 37-yard touchdown that puts Michigan in its first second-half deficit since Penn State. Inexpicable Corum exit in game column. Garbage holding call brings back a 40 yard improv play to Wilson. Andrel Anthony drops a touchdown.