Lions, Wolverines, and Mock Drafts - Oh My!  (Part I, Part II, Part III)

Everyone loves mock drafts (me included) even though they are terrible future-predictors.  The earlier parts of this diary series discuss all the reasons why, but here I am laying out a few different scenarios for the Lions.

The look Brad Holmes gives you when you suggest he should draft for need.

TL;DR - The Lions are–and should be–a best pick available team.  They will pick almost any position if they believe the player is a value.  Trying to mock to team needs for the Lions is really just pleasuring yourself–it’s not how Holmes thinks and he proved that emphatically last year.  As for Michigan…I don’t think we break the draft record this year, but I do believe it will be close.

There is a great temptation to build mock drafts by creating a big board, examining team needs, adding perceived GM/Coach preferences, and then slotting players in.  This practice hasn’t worked well for years and it’s not how Brad Holmes operates at all.

Keeping that in mind, expect the Lions to do the unexpected during the draft.  They led all teams in trades last year (six during the draft) and kicked-off the draft by taking a RB–which was not a need–followed by a LB (also not a big need) in round one.  These two positions are not considered round one values (and it’s very possible neither see a round one selection this year).  But Holmes took the best player available (BPA) and stayed true to his board.

But what are the Lions roster needs?  This is, by far, the best roster the Lions have had since the 90’s.  So the needs are more focused on depth and the future than the 2024 season.  (Not in order of “need”): 

• OL: I see future holes at every OL position but one–Decker’s contract expiring, two older guards, a center who is the best in the business but seems held together by duct tape.
• EDGE: This is, in my opinion, the most overblown “need” for the Lions.  If Houston is healthy the Lions have two excellent pass-rushers, they signed Davenport, Paschal is improving, and still have Cominsky.  Would another great EDGE opposite Hutch be nice?  Of course.  But if the Lions came out of the draft without taking an EDGE, I’d be fine with that–I seriously doubt that with the depth and value in this EDGE class, though.  The flip side of this is that I’d be okay with the Lions taking an EDGE in round one, especially if one of the top three fell in their lap.
• DT: Depth.  The Lions have two GREAT starters here, but adding great players at premium positions is always good.
• DB: There are a bunch of “hybrid” players in this draft that could play CB, Nickel, or safety, or some combination.  This is, I believe, the greatest “need” for the Lions, but this year’s roster is far better than last year’s at this time–even with the Sutton release–so I don’t want the Lions reaching for need here.  That said, if they drafted two or even three DBs, I wouldn’t be upset.  We could use depth at every position in the secondary.
• WR: This is an uncertain “need.”  If Jameson Williams takes another step and stays healthy, it might not be a need at all.  There are also some good free agent WRs still out there.  That said, Jame-O has proven to be a big “IF” so far and some depth–especially on the outside–would be nice.  Again, there is NO WAY I’d reach for this position just to feel good about it.  Luckily, there are literally dozens of potential impact WRs in this class, so I’d be surprised if the Lions didn’t take at least one.
• TE: To me, this is a bigger “need” than most people think.  LaPorta is great, but there is almost nothing behind him.  A mid-round pick on a quality, versatile back-up TE would be amazing.
• QB, RB, LB: These are, emphatically, not needs.  And, barring some kind of extreme value (like Penix available at 61), I’d really not like to see these positions drafted before round four, preferably round five.  That said, Holmes is stubborn about BPA so I may very well find myself disappointed.

So…here are a few scenarios, with and without trades, that are plausible.  None will be right, but I hope they’re all fun.

Scenario 1: Tradeless and Hopeful

I’ve run hundreds of mock draft simulations for the Lions using different apps and parameters.  Before someone says, “there’s no way he’ll be on the board there,” let’s all agree on one thing: NO ONE KNOWS.  Who would’ve thought Branch would be available at pick 45 last year?  Will Levis was the consensus #10 and went at pick 33.  Joey Porter and Michael Mayer were mocked in the top 21 and both fell to round two.  It happens EVERY YEAR.  So…this mock has the Lions stuck at #29, and taking…

R1, Pick 29: Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, DT, Illinois

With Reader and McNeill, the Lions have one of the best DT tandems in the NFL.  While the depth is lacking, some might think this is a luxury pick, and, to a degree, it is.  But Johnny Newton is a blue-chip prospect that may fall due to team needs and his lack of participation in the pre-draft process.  Of the guys likely to fall, he’s one I’d love to see in a Lions uniform.

Other plausible falls (within 10 spots): OL: Troy Fautanu, JC Latham, Graham Barton, Jackson Powers-Johnson;  DB: Kool-Aid McKinstry, Cooper DeJean.  Of that group, I prefer the OL to the DBs, but would be satisfied with DeJean or Kool-Aid.

R2, Pick 61: Zach Frazier, OC, West Virginia

Giving myself 20 spots of latitude on the consensus board, I love Braden Fiske.  However, after getting Newton in round one, it’s time to look to another spot.  Frazier has the attitude and skillset to be a start at OC in the NFL.  Unfortunately, I don’t think he offers the versatility of some other interior OL players in this draft and he may be a center only.  Still, he’s a great fit on the Lions and could fill-in when Ragnow needs/wants a break until he’s ready to move on.

Other plausible falls (within 20 spots) I like: WR: Ricky Pearsall;  EDGE: Chris Braswell.  Both of these guys would make me just as happy as Frazier.  Pearsall has versatility that could help him fill almost any WR role we need, and he does it with a MCDC attitude.  Braswell is an every-down DE who isn’t likely to rack-up sacks but is good at everything and fights every play.

Some guys that are close enough (within 10 spots) that I like: DT: Kris Jenkins;  DB: Mike Sainristil, Max Melton;  WR: Malachi Corley, Xavier Legette.  Mikey and Melton are a bit small, but I trust them both.  Jenkins is off the list if we took Newton.  Both Corley and Legette have somewhat limited skillsets–Corely needs to develop more of a route tree, but is young to the position and flashed the ability to do that at the Senior Bowl.  He may be the best YAC player in the draft and would be an amazing kick returner.  Legette is older and probably is what he is: a damn good outside WR with a limited route tree that happens to be some of the most essential routes for NFL success on the outside: fades, digs, crossers.  He’s also great after the catch.

R3, Pick 73: Max Melton, CB, Rutgers

I like Max a bit more than Mikey in terms of inside/outside versatility.  If he’s still on the board, I’d love to get him here.  Pearsall would be amazing, but that’s a pretty greedy hope; same with Braswell.

Other plausible falls (within 25 spots): In addition to everyone on the above list (save Pearsall), I’d add DB: Javon Bullard;  WR: Ja’Lynn Polk; OL: Cooper Beebe; Christian Haynes; Kiran Amegadjie;  EDGE: Marshawn Kneeland, Bralen Trice.

R5, Pick 164: Javon Solomon, EDGE, Troy

The first small-school guy on the list, Solomon is an insanely productive player.  He led the FBS with 16 sacks and racked-up 18 TFLs.  He forced three fumbles.  And his 56 total tackles from the EDGE position tell you he’s a consistent player who is always around the ball, despite starting on the defensive line.  He’s shorter at 6’1” but has long arms and plays with great leverage.  He looked more mortal against better competition–which is why he’s still on the board, though he’s the consensus 133 pick.

Greedier hopes (but still plausible): DB: Caelan Carson (120); OC: Beaux Limmer (122).  Limmer would be off the board here if Frazier was already drafted, as he’s another who really fits best at OC.  Carson is, IMO, one of the more underrated players in the class and I’d take him even if Melton was the previous pick.

Other plausible falls (within 40 spots): WR: Luke McCaffrey, Jamari Thrash, Jacob Cowing.  Those would be my favorite back-up plans here, followed by fellow WRs Brenden Rice and Ainias Smith, QB Michael Pratt, OT Christian Jones, Ss Tykee Smith and Kitan Oladapo, LBs (still don’t love this, but there’s value here) Edefuan Ulofoshio and Marist Liufau, and CB Nehemiah Pritchett.

R6, Pick 201:  Nehemiah Pritchett, CB, Auburn

This is a tough choice from a Lions perspective, but at pick 201 you’re just looking to get lucky with a great player.  I highly doubt Pritchett is on the board here, but, again, it’s just a 60 spot projection, which is not uncommon this late.  His weakness is that his lanky frame has limited his tackling run support.  He’s a good cover corner with great traits that doesn’t play as fast as his 4.36 40 time suggests.  Right there with him would be: WR Jamari Thrash and OG Mason McCormick.  Thrash is likely a slot–though a very good one–and McCormick is a small-school prospect with great traits and temperament.

Most of the above guys fill on other options here, and now I’d add two Michigan names: WR Cornelius Johnson and TE A.J. Barner.  New names to watch would be OG Brandon Coleman, OC Hunter Nourzad, DT Khristian Boyd, EDGEs Cedric Johnson and Brennan Jackson, RB Tyrone Tracy, WR Ryan Flournoy, and OG Trevor Keegan.

R6, Pick 206: Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona

Some people just get open.  Cowing is one of those guys who does that, then surprises you with his ability to break tackles and find the end zone at 5’8”/168.  He needs to refine his routes and improve his ability to catch in traffic.  At this point in the draft, he’s just too good to pass up.

All of the above players are very much in play.  TE A.J. Barner is my favorite pick here, but I worry that sentiment is dictating that.  WR Cornelius Johnson fills a bigger need but doesn’t have near the production of Cowing, but…

R7, Pick 249: Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan

CJ just makes my self-imposed gap of 75 spots, coming in at 174 on the consensus board.  I’d be just as happy with EDGEs Cedric Johnson and Brennan Jackson.  Part III of this diary shares more of the late round guys I like, but staying true to my process, I love CJ here.  

From a positional perspective, OL Ladarius Henderson makes sense.

Scenario 2: An Actual Simulation

In a sense, this mock is more realistic.  I used a mock draft simulator to create it (that link is to a free one) and it includes trades, which are certain to occur.  Hope you enjoy!

TRADE: Texans give picks 42 and 59 for picks 29 and 164

R2, Pick 42: Ennis Rakestraw Jr, CB, Missouri

Rakestraw is a bit too small.  He’s a bit too slow.  But everything else is near-perfect.  He’s physical, competitive, quick, and surprisingly strong in press man coverage.  And he’s very much a Lion.

Other options were: OC Zach Frazier, OL Cooper Beebe.

TRADE: Bills give picks 60 and 128 for pick 59 and a 2025 fifth-rounder

R2, Pick 60: Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota

The best safety in the draft is still on the board.  Easy pick.

R2, Pick 61: Braden Fiske, DL, Florida State

Another surprise drop that is plausible (due to his size and arm length).  The Lions have added some serious power to their defense in this draft.

R3, Pick 73: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida

This is turning out to be borderline fan-fiction, but you never know.  Pearsall is a do-it-all WR and would be an absolute steal here; I almost took him at 61.

R4, Pick 128: Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State

A Buckeye Lions fans will love, Stover is the jack-of-all-trades TE that could be a great back-up to the versatile Sam LaPorta, and offer more potent two-TE options for the offense.  Considered some OL help here, but the value was too good.

R6, Pick 201: Khristian Boyd, DT, Northern Iowa

Staying true to BPA is even more important late.  You’re just hoping these guys make the roster.  Boyd was the choice over WR Cornelius Johnson, RB Tyrone Tracy Jr, and OC Charles Turner III.

R6, Pick 206: Tyrone Tracy Jr, RB Purdue

A tough pick to make, but I’m staying disciplined.  The Lions don’t need a RB, but Tracy blends some special talents as a former WR turned power back.

R7, Pick 249: Gabriel Murphy, EDGE, UCLA

I have no idea how he’s still on the board.  He’s smaller and short-armed and probably just a pass-rush specialist, but he’s got real potential and athleticism that make him an extreme value here.  Probably would’ve picked him sooner if I’d seen his name!

I’d prefer scenario two.  While it lacks OL help it loads the defense with talent and adds some key pieces to what is already one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Hope you enjoyed!