OT: The NFL Draft and the Lions - All the prospects you need to know (and so many that you don't)
Part III: Player Tiers and the Horizontal Draft Board (Part I; Part II)
TL;DR - Most NFL teams actually use a “tier” system where they cluster players based on their approximate value potential as opposed to just a “Big Board” system. Yes, they do work to separate those players for preference, but they acknowledge those fine distinctions as being somewhat unreliable (especially after the best players are off the board). It may not be as exciting as ranking players by number, but here are my tiers, the players I’d avoid, and some sleepers. Keep in mind that NFL teams might have as few 120 players on their boards!
I HAVE GREAT IMAGES BUT THEY'RE NOT WORKING. (this one is of a "horizontal" draft board)
Caleb Williams going #1 is as close to a sure thing as you’ll ever see in Vegas (-10,000). After that, the draft is truly unpredictable. Jayden Daniels lead with -150 odds for the #2 pick, but Drake Maye is at +130. That’s like the moneyline bet on an NFL game with a 2.5 point spread, and it only gets more uncertain from there.
Why is the draft so tough to predict? Not only are we famously bad at predicting future human success, each of the 32 NFL teams views every prospect differently. It only takes one front office to like JaMarcus Russell for him to go #1. A more recent example was the Jags passing on Aidan Hutchinson for Travon Walker.
A better way to rank players is based on value tiers, especially once you get out of the top 15 picks. In this years’ draft, the blue chip players are likely to be long gone by the time the Lions pick. So, looking at the consensus big board, this article will focus on tiers: where I like players’ value (relative to the consensus board), sleepers, and even prospects I’d avoid. Keep in mind this is through the Lions lens so I won’t value a pass-blocking OT as highly as others might, for example, or a CB who’s a good cover guy but not a willing tackler, or a WR who doesn’t like to block.
THIS IS A PICTURE OF DAN CAMPBELL LETTING YOU KNOW HE DOESN'T HAVE TIME FOR WRS WHO WON'T BLOCK. (there is snot on his shirt to prove it; he has time for that but not your lazy football)
S Tier - Players nearly certain to be gone when the Lions pick: QBs: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy; WRs: Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze; OTs: Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga; EDGE: Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu; CBs: Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold; DT: Byron Murphy; TE: Brock Bowers
- There is not a player on this list I wouldn’t be elated for the Lions to get at #29.
JOHNNY NEWTON WILL BREAK YOU! (I'd love this guy to fall to the Lions)
R1 Tier - Other players with first-round grades: WR: Brian Thomas Jr; OL: Troy Fautanu, JC Latham, Amarius Mims, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Graham Barton; DBs: Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, Kool-Aid McKinstry; DT: Jer’Zhan (Johnny) Newton
- Guys I wouldn’t pick: Thomas, Mims, Wiggins. And here I’ll elaborate on the reasons for these three, but the core answer is always the same: I don’t trust their potential enough. For Thomas, I’m concerned his game may not translate to the NFL. For Mims, I’m concerned about durability. For Wiggins, I worry about tackling and durability. That doesn’t mean I don’t think they can be great players, it just means I don’t trust the certainty of that outcome enough to draft them until later than they’re likely to be drafted. At pick 61, I’d take Thomas or Mims. I don’t think Wiggins fits the Lions at all, but I’d like his value at 61.
“Stuck at 29” Tier - Boom/Bust guys that may have a lower average predicted value than some from the next tier, but have traits you can’t get later in the draft: WR: Adonai Mitchell; EDGE: Chop Robinson; Other boom/bust names I wouldn’t want the Lions to draft: OL: Tyler Guyton, Jordan Morgan, Kingsley Suamataia
- Assuming the board goes chalk–which is HIGHLY unlikely, these are the two guys I think the Lions should look at with pick #29.
Impact Starter Tier - Guys I believe will be at least good enough that you won’t want to replace them, somewhere between very good and pro bowlers with the potential to be even better: WR: Ladd McConkey, Ricky Pearsall, Malachi Corley, Ja-Lynn Polk; EDGE: Darius Robinson, Chris Braswell; QB: Michale Penix Jr; DB: Ennis Rakestraw Jr, Mike Sainristil, TJ Tampa, Max Melton; Javon Bullard, Tyler Nubin; DL: Braden Fiske, Kris Jenkins; LB: Payton Wilson, Edgerrin Cooper; OL: Zach Frazier, Cooper Beebe
- Other than the LBs, these are all guys I’d love to see the Lions draft in round two, even early in round two. If Detroit sticks-and-picks at #29, I hope one of the guys from the R1 tier is there. Otherwise I’d be trying to trade down. That said, while I don’t love the value, none of these names would infuriate me at #29. Lots of names in here that don’t match the consensus board–I’m higher on Pearsall, Corley, Polk, Melton, Tampa, and Beebe.
THIS WAS ACTUALLY A CATCH AND YES I WANT THIS GUY ON THE LIONS.
R2 Tier - In this draft, a large group of guys that have round two value potential, just a tick in value below the “Impact” tier: QB: Bo Nix; WR: Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, Roman Wilson, Xavier Legette, Troy Franklin; DB: Kamari Lassiter, Cole Bishop, Jaden Hicks, Renardo Green, Khyree Jackson OL: Kiran Amegadjie, Christian Mahogany, Zak Zinter, Sedrick Van Pran, Christian Haynes; DT: Brandon Dorlus; EDGE: Marshawn Kneeland, Bralen Trice, Adisa Isaac, Jonah Ellis; LB: Junior Colson, Jeremiah Trotter Jr
- Again, no LBs for the Lions before round four, please, and no Bo Nix. I think everyone else on this list is in play at 61 and 73. Some notables: Worthy is too slight to be a tier higher, but I love his game. If he stays healthy, I think he’s exceptional. Coleman is likely to be a big slot, which diminishes his value for the Lions, but I think he’ll do well in the NFL. Renardo Green has shown he can play with anyone, and I think he’s one of the more underrated players in the draft. Kiran Amegadjie went to Yale, so he’s under-scouted, but looks like a gem. Dorlus needs to play DT to maximize his potential. Jonah Ellis is another underrated player, coming in at #81
THIS HAPPENED, YOU REMEMBER IT, AND IT'S STILL DELIGHTFUL.
R3 Tier - Guys I think would be good value for the Lions in the middle of the draft: WR: Tez Walker, Malik Washington, Luke McCaffrey, Jamari Thrash, Jacob Cowing; TE (they exist!): Cade Stover, Ben Sinnott; OL: Blake Fisher, Beaux Limmer, Mason McCormick DL: Ruke Orhorhoro; EDGE: Mohamed Kamara, Javon Solomon, Brennan Jackson; DB: Kris Abrams-Draine, Andru Phillips, Caelen Carson, Calen Bullock; RB (don’t want Lions taking before round five, but these guys have higher value): Jonathan Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Jayen Wright
- At this point there are huge deviations from the consensus board. Notable omissions: WR: Jermaine Burton (off-field concerns), Javon Baker; TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders; OL: Patrick Paul; DL: Maason Smith, Michael Hall Jr; EDGE: Austin Booker; S: Kamren Kinchens. Guys I like more than the board does: Thrash, McCaffrey, Cowing, Sinnott, Limmer, McCormick, Kamara, Solomon, Jackson, Carson.
BUT SABAN WAS ALL ABOUT CHARACTER AND DOING IT THE RIGHT WAY!
R4/5 Tier - We’re getting into very hard-to-predict territory; these guys are not likely to be impact players, but I like them as relative values: QB: Michael Pratt, Spencer Rattler; RB (still don’t want to see before round five): MarShawn Lloyd, Audric Estime, Will Shipley, Ray Davis; WR: Brenden Rice, Ainias Smith; TE: Jared Wiley; OL: Christian Jones, Brandon Coleman, Trevor Keegan; DL: Mekhi Wingo, DeWayne Carter; EDGE: Cedric Johnson, Jalyx Hunt; LB (still don’t want before round five): Edefuan Ulofoshio, Marist Liufau; DB: Nehemiah Pritchett, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Tykee Smith, Kitan Oladapo
- Now we have far fewer names than there are selections through round five. At this point in the draft we start to see more names that aren’t on the big board or aren’t anywhere near these picks. The data suggests that the names above should get the Lions through pick 164 (and maybe far beyond), but we’ll see. I won’t list all the divergences, but LOTS of players being omitted now. Kamren Kinchens and Austin Booker are two guys I like at 164 that were left off because I don’t think they’ll be available; Maason Smith is a maybe.
R6/7 Tier - These are guys with uncertain draft prospects, but I would like to see in a Lions uniform: QB: Sam Hartman, Devin Leary; RB: Tyrone Tracy Jr; WR: Cornelius Johnson, Ryan Flournoy, Anthony Gould; TE: AJ Barner; OL: Roger Rosengarten, Javon Foster, Garret Greenfield, Sataoa Laumea, Javion Cohen, Hunter Nourzad, Ladarius Henderson, Charles Turner III; DL: Tyler Davis, Khristian Boyd, Jordan Jefferson, Jaden Crumedy; EDGE: Gabe Murphy, Braiden McGregor, Xavier Thomas; LB: Curtis Jacobs; DB: Josh Newton, Chau Smith-Wade, Dwight McGlothern, Cam Hart
- Obviously, I’d love to see Cornelius Johnson and AJ Barner on the Lions. I don’t think they’ll last this long, but this is where I like them. Same for Henderson; McGregor’s prospects are more uncertain, but he’s likely to be drafted. Lots of guys on this list that are rated much higher.
SOME PICTURES ARE BETTER AT FOOTBALL THAN LATHAN RANSOM.
Sleepers/Fliers - Some of my favorite guys for late picks that may not even be drafted (or are rated much higher and just weren’t for me earlier in the draft): QB: Carter Bradley; Austin Reed; Jordan Travis RB: Kimani Vidal; Dylan Laube, Rasheen Ali, Cody Schrader, Carson Steele, Frank Gore Jr; WR: Jordan Whittington, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Tahj Washington, Xavier Weaver; TE: Tip Reiman, Jaheim Bell, Dallin Holker, Tanner McLachlan; OL: Trente Jones, Karsen Barnhart, Drake Nugent, Tanor Bartolini, Prince Pines, Kingsley Eguakun; DL: McKinnley Jackson, Logan Lee, Justin Eboigbe, Fabien Lovett, Jowon Briggs; EDGE: Nelson Ceaser, Myles Cole, Jaylen Harrell, Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Grayson Murphy, Eyabi Okie; LB: Tommy Eichenberg, Steele Chambers, Michael Barrett, Aaron Casey DB: DJ James, Elijah Jones, Josh Newton, Ryan Watts, Deantre Prince, Josh Wallace, Trey Taylor, Thomas Harper
- Lots of Michigan guys here, and the ones that are mostly likely to be sweating on Saturday. Some of my favorite fliers are Frank Gore Jr, Jordan Whittington, Tip Reiman, Favien Lovett, Michale Barrett, Ryan Watts, and Josh Wallace. Wallace is that guy you almost don’t want to pick but can’t keep off your team–he’s rated 308 and might not get drafted but may have a better chance of making a roster than some of the OL prospects. Kickers, Punters, and Long-Snappers were left off because I don’t want to research them, and only Tory Taylor of Iowa fame is a sure-bet to be drafted.
THIS MAN WAS ON THE FIELD FOR ONE OF THE MOST GLORIOUS MOMENTS OF MY LIFE.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73213423/1906289845.0.jpg){kind=link}
If you made it this far, thank you for reading, and I hope you enjoyed this. There are lots of missing names that will be drafted and lots of guys whose draft stock won’t be accurately-reflected here, but hopefully this is helpful to get you excited for all three days of the NFL draft!
This is a great Diary series!
Thank you! Almost done, and this one was the most work by far. I wish images were working so it wasn't a wall of text...
Just some pushback on your evaluations:
- Brian Thomas Jr was a basketball-first player through most of high school, despite football being his first love. He's super-athletic, a physical, high-effort blocker, and he's just scratching the surface of his potential (hence the one year of production). Slam dunk pick for the Lions if he reaches #29 (he won't).
- Amarius Mims, with another season of college football, might be a top 5 pick... He has that kind of natural talent and with Georgia's offensive line history it makes sense why it took him longer to see the field. The wariness with him is less durability for me and far more experience and rawness as a prospect... The Lions seem almost like a perfect fit for him to learn with a Top 5 OL coach in Hank Fraley and Taylor Dekker holding down the left side for another year.
- Nate Wiggins, while being light, still plays physical and played 10+ games in his two years as a starter. He's one of the best pure coverage corners in this class and he's a good tackler for his weight... plus NFL receivers keep getting lighter.
- Renardo Green has zero ball-location skills (his one INT was when Brian Thomas slipped on the route and Daniels threw it right to him) and he is one of the most-grabby corners I've seen in recent memory... Green feels like he's a walking illegal contact/pass interference penalty and that terrifies me at the next level where that gets cracked down on in a big way.
- TJ Tampa has incredibly stiff hips. He's awesome if a pass is thrown in front of him and he can step up and make a tackle or play on the ball, but the minute he has to turn and run with a receiver, he's not great. He's a great fit for teams that run a lot of zone and quarters coverages, and a really bad fit for press-man (which Aaron Glenn runs a ton of).
- Darius Robinson is big and strong, yes. But he's so raw and unathletic in terms of hand-use and change-of-direction, I think there's a real chance that he'll be learning the ropes of being an NFL player during the entire duration of his rookie contract. Trayvon Walker was a better athlete and more advanced pass rusher than Robinson and he's still trying to piece it all together 3 years later... I'm letting another team assume that risk with a Top 50-ish pick.
April 12th, 2024 at 11:08 AM ^
Thank you! This is what makes the draft fun--all the different perspectives.
- On Thomas, we'll have to agree to disagree. I see an inconsistent route runner with focus issues, and a guy that may be more like the burners of past draft that never panned out. He lacks the wiggle in the open field and the intermediate route chops that define most great NFL WRs. To me, he looks like an upgraded version of Jalin Hyatt. But I 100% agree that he's likely long gone by #29; the league has always been infatuated with his kind of talent, even though it rarely pans out.
- Mims...limited tape, multiple injuries...there is just too much uncertainty. You are clearly more comfortable with his bust risk than I am, and that's okay--Mims has one of the highest ceilings in the draft and could easily end-up the best OL of the class.
- Wiggins does not look good in run support. He is not a great tackler. He is the best man cover man in the class, and on a different team I would like him more, but in the NFL if you're a bad tackler or weak in run support, the ball finds you, and the Lions don't abide that.
- Green, to me, is a fierce competitor who will have to refine his handsy play. At his best, he looks like one of the best man cover guys in the class. At his worst he's a walking flag. I'm more comfortable with his type of risk than Thomas or Mims.
- You are right on Tampa. He's not really a fit for the Lions. I just like him as a player so much and think he'll be a very, very good CB on someone's team, so I kept him high. I don't want the Lions to pick him, but I'm higher on him than the consensus.
- Darius Robinson has traits, tenacity, and block-shedding abilities that are hard to teach. He's a VERY different player from Walker, and I wouldn't be drafting him primarily as a pass-rusher, but rather an all-around DE in a more old-school role. I'm more comfortable with his developmental risks because he's already got the skills and build to be great against the run and troublesome as a power rusher. He dominated one-on-one reps at the Senior Bowl. He's not a first-round talent, and nowhere near the value of the #1 overall pick. He's like a harder-working version of Tyree Wilson.
Thank you for the great discussion!
Good discussion!
Thomas Jr:
I don't disagree with any of the warts you pointed out: BTJ lacks polish, will drop some easy passes and he's not an elusive runner in the open field. But with his frame/physicality (6'3" 210) and his speed, he doesn't need to be an elusive runner when he can just blow by you. There's a mold of successful NFL receivers like AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Christian Watson, etc who are in that vertical-first mold.
Partner those traits with his effort and work ethic, and I think he has a chance to becoming a more-physical/durable Christian Watson or a more-explosive Tee Higgins
Mims:
Truthfully, I'm not completely comfortable with his injuries... It's more of that if the Lions are sticking at 29, getting truly impactful players at that slot historically is unlikely (see the last ten years of #29 overall picks). I can't imagine a better situation for Mims to learn than under Decker and Penei and the guide of Hank Fraley without being thrown into the fire and his ceiling is through the roof.
I will say that there's a general "win now" sense I get from other Lions fans who want to push all their chips in right now, while I'd prefer to play the long game and try to win over the next 10 years. Mims is a calculated gamble, but as I'm more focused on getting a player who could be here for 15 years and not 3, it's worth the roll of the dice in my mind.
Wiggins:
You may be correct that Wiggins won't be as valuable to the Lions specifically due to the traits they look for, but because we're talking player evaluation and archetype for corners, I put a much higher value on coverage ability and ball skills than physicality or tackling. To me, I can live with a corner missing a tackle and turning a 2-yard run into a 7-yard run if that means he can break up a pass 25-yards down the field (instead of making the tackle after the receiver catches it).
Wiggins is only 172 lbs, so he'll always struggle to get off blocks, but he's not a purely finesse player either.
Here's him laying out Xavier Leggette:
Here's Wiggins sprinting 60 yards to force a fumble at the goal line:
I can work with that mentality from a cornerback... He's not a Marcus Peters who wants to play basketball on grass.
And with the division the Lions are in, if the Lions are going to be play Jefferson/Addison, Watson/Reed, and Moore/Allen/Rookie... those aren't super-heavy, physical receivers like Deebo/AJ Brown/DK Metcalf, so they should be able to get away with a lighter CB on the outside.
Renardo Green:
Everything you said I'm in agreement with... I just can't think of a single cornerback who was able to "fix" those issues at the NFL level without ball-location skills. If you never look for the football, NFL refs will hammer you even to the point of getting flagged on plays where it wasn't illegal contact.
If you know of a comparable player who was able to remedy those issues at the next level, then envisioning Green as an NFL cornerback will be much easier for me.
Darius Robinson:
I disagree with your evaluation of his traits and how close he is to being an effective bull rusher (which is fine) at the NFL level, but how about you sell me on the vision for Darius to become an impact player? Who's the comparable player who's had success in the NFL recently?
Everyone throws out the Cam Jordan comparison, but Cam Jordan was highly polished coming out of Cal with hand technique and pass-rushing moves. Outside of Jordan, can you name a big-DE who panned out in the NFL in the last 15 years? I think you'd have to go back to Calais Campbell in 2008 to find a comparable path to success for Robinson, but Campbell had multiple years of production and was also more polished coming out of Miami.
But just in general, I don't value that "traditional DE" role that significantly lacks the pass rush tool on Day 1 or 2. It's a role you can fill via free agency on the cheap (John Cominsky) or on Day 3 with players like Justin Eboigbe or Logan Lee. Eboigbe gives me the same weight and run-defending ability that Robinson does and with far better football instincts 50-100 picks later, but without the height and length that Robinson does which caps his ceiling.
What's your issue with Suamataia at 29? He's not my preferred choice there, but a highly athletic OT who can be a guard for a year or so and then bump out to RT when we inevitably can't afford Decker anymore makes a ton of sense to me
I agree with you that I would have no problem with Penei's cousin in Round 1, but I don't think his tape at BYU is as good as we were hoping it would be, so there's a bit of projection in his draft profile that might make some iffy at 29 overall.
I have similar feelings about Graham Barton, who I think will be a dominant interior player but is only a "meh" tackle prospect. If the Lions feel comfortable Barton can eventually take over center for Ragnow, they should sprint his name up (even over Powers-Johnson)... But if he's a guard only, then Round 1 feels a little rich considering the depth of this class.
April 12th, 2024 at 11:13 AM ^
I don't like Suamataia's inconsistency. We need help all along the OL and I like Barton and JPJ if they are there at #29. I'd love Latham, but that's a pipe dream. Suamataia may go to the Chiefs at 32; I'm not comfortable with his value until later in the second round.
Great Diary post! Thank you! My one suggestion would be to do more to separate those with higher consensus evaluations that you're low on and those who you rate more highly than the consensus within the tiers. Thank you for your work! As it is, it's a great contribution to the board!
April 12th, 2024 at 11:13 AM ^
Good ideas. Maybe next year!
I'm not loving the Michael Barrett disrespekt here. Lower than 1-1?
Nice read!
April 17th, 2024 at 11:22 AM ^
Thank you!
One of the observations I really agree with - AJ Barner to the lions. I dunno how he fits with Brock Wright still here, but paired with LaPorta, he'd be sneaky good. The D WILL eventually forget about him and then BAM. Goff to Barner in the endzone for the win.
Comments