October 12th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
I don't understand how this can be construed as horrifying. There is no malevolent god that punishes football teams for being odds-on favorites to win a game. This is either encouraging or meaningless, depending on whether or not you value the opinion of Vegas odds-makers.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
Well, it's going to be windy, gusty, and Wisconsin has a good run defense. This is going to be a very close game and Vegas tells us it's not? I always afraid of things I don't understand.
With a 49 O/U, I would go with Wisconsin to cover and the UNDER ... if I was actually betting.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^
Where are you seeing windy and gusty? I don't see any reports over 10mph.
October 12th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
he’s pulling it out of his ass (although it was pretty windy today) - tomorrow looks like it’s going to be a beautiful day; cool, but sunny and the forecast calls for 5mph winds by kickoff
October 12th, 2018 at 3:52 PM ^
the funny thing is Wisconsin's run defense isnt anything special. I am pretty sure Maryland has a better run defense than Wisconsin.
October 12th, 2018 at 6:23 PM ^
MD has a better defense, period. And had an extra week to prepare. Obviously, some of that has to do with Wisconsin injuries. But still, this year, MD has better D.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^
The forecast for tomorrow night has winds between 4-6mph and the temperature in the forties. That is as benign as football weather gets. But I can see why you're always terrified if you're just going to straight imagine that negative things like bad weather are bound to happen.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^
Oh good grief, don’t know how you guys can do it. Low in the high 60s here in AZ tonite.
October 12th, 2018 at 5:11 PM ^
Your heat is dry and I can tolerate (correction: enjoy) that, but it's fully sincere when I say I'd rather live in a forever-polar-vortex than spend even one year in the swampy south. This isn't an aesthetic thing. Both are tremendously beautiful and culturally rich places (if you have a sufficiently open mind). But I looooathe sweating and adore the challenge of selecting the right gear so that even -20*F can feel toasty everywhere except the cheeks.
October 12th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
I'll take the cold over the crap that is AZ summer.
October 12th, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^
We just dropped below 100° on the last day of September.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
Lol I wouldn’t trust a word you say considering the weather is gonna be the opposite of what you just said and Wisconsin’s run d is middling. What are you on?
October 12th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
Wisconsin's run defense has not been that great at all. In their last three games they've given up the following:
Nebraska: 4.6 ypc
Iowa: 4.8 ypc
BYU: 6.8 ypc
Nothing to write home about in general, and just straight up awful against BYU. They padded their stats at the start of the season against two awful non-con opponents and suffered a bunch of injuries.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^
Here is my explanation for why this is horrifying, paraphrasing from the 1995 classic "Tommy Boy"
FauxMo: Let's think about this for a sec, AnthonyThomas. Why would the line be -10? Hmmm, very interesting.
AnthonyThomas: Go on, I'm listening.
FauxMo: Here's the way I see it, A-Train. Vegas puts a big line on a game 'cause they want you to feel all warm and toasty inside.
AnthonyThomas: Yeah, makes a fan feel good.
FauxMo: 'Course it does. Why shouldn't it? Ya figure you put that -10 line under your pillow at night, the Football Fairy might come by and leave a quarter, am I right?
AnthonyThomas: [impatiently] What's your point?
FauxMo: The point is, how do you know the fairy isn't a crazy glue sniffer? "Building model airplanes" says the little fairy; well, we're not buying it. He sneaks into your house once, that's all it takes. The next thing you know, there's money missing off the dresser, and your daughter's knocked up. I seen it a hundred times.
AnthonyThomas: But why do they put a line at -10?
FauxMo: Because they know all they sold ya was a piece of shit false sense of security about the game. That's all it is, isn't it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for the fans' sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about dropping the line closer to -5.
AnthonyThomas: [pause] Okay, I'll wait and see how the game turns out.
The end...
October 12th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
Chicken wings?
October 12th, 2018 at 4:57 PM ^
God you’re sick. I’ll go turn on the fryers.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
There is no malevolent god that punishes football teams for being odds-on favorites to win a game.
If I was fan of any other team I would agree with you, but I (we) have seen some things.
October 12th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^
Shit happens and likely won't happen again. Could it? Sure. But I choose to believe that it probably won't.
October 12th, 2018 at 5:48 PM ^
No, but refs compensated by the sharps do
October 12th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
That'd be to our benefit though. The line is moving so much because bets keep coming in on Michigan, and Vegas is trying desperately to force action the other way. I guess the sharps could be seeing this movement and waiting to pounce on Wisconsin at the peak of the line movement tomorrow sometime, but I think it's just as likely they're the ones moving the line. It's certainly not the BPONE-infused fan base who is convinced that Michigan being favored is a portent of doom.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
On games I don't know about, I think that kind of line movement means Wisconsin is going to to cover.
For our game, I am very afraid.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
Afraid? We get it!
October 12th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
Just means bettors are optimistic their money lies best with a UM team at home at night against what has been a slightly underwhelming Wisco team. I don’t blame them, this is a game we absolutely should use to send a message heading into eye of BIG play.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
Do we know which officiating crew is working the game? That would be enough to move the line, although not typically in our favor.
I think we cover, but who the hell knows. We could win it 13-10.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^
Found this. Seems incomplete ATM, but the thread for last week's game showed Mike Cannon as the crew for the game. Hopefully this week's thread will be updated soon . . .
October 12th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
This is pretty typical with Michigan lines. Judging how this game usually goes, I would take the points.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
I have to say this game scares the hell out of me at -10.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:52 PM ^
UM’s DL injuries make this a toss up. Major concern with a strong OL coming in.
Potentially no Gary, Solomon, Kemp, and Dwumfour.Eep!
October 12th, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^
Gary and Kemp are playing
October 12th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
Yet more negative circumstances that someone just straight makes up out of thin air. Get a grip, people.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^
Yep. Why even play the game? We're just going to lose!
October 12th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^
Didn’t make up anything. We’ve heard nothing about Kemp and The Victors board reported that a Rivals insider said Gary wasn’t going to play.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
UMbig11 has been over this elsewhere
October 12th, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
You’re better than that Salvatore
October 12th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
but let's ignore wisky's injuries on D.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
Michigan offensively should be fine. It’s the DL depth vs a power rushing team that concerns me.
October 12th, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^
Clownish.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^
I'm probably way too bullish on this game, but really hoping we see something different than "typical" UM-UW games, that it is not low scoring (for us that is), and we blow them out in the first quarter. Big explosive plays, 4 passing TDs, and a 3 score win. Avoid the jitterbugs and turnovers and we cruise.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^
I don't trust this, I don't trust this, and I don't like it. It's partly BPONE I admit, but it's also the recent past, I just can't see us winning convincingly against this team. Two years ago we won a real close game too.
I've heard Mike Valenti several times this week predict that we are going to beat Wisconsin by three touchdowns, and that makes me feel even worse. I think we can win for sure, but I see it as very close until proven not.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
I still don't get what is scary about a single data point that suggests Michigan is going to win. If they win easily? Great! If it's a close win? Who cares! They still won. Either way, our odds of winning seem to be increasing. What is there to dislike?
October 12th, 2018 at 4:57 PM ^
That 2016 game score was closer than the actual game. I was there and never felt like we were going to lose.
October 12th, 2018 at 7:04 PM ^
This is Valenti's schtick. Down play Mich opponents so if we win big, its nothing to see here. And if we lose he can bash Michigan all week on air. Been doing that for a long time.
October 12th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
I think it will either be frustratingly close or a semi-blowout.
Just depends if they come out flat or focused with their hair on fire.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
We could win this game by 20+. It all depends if Harbaugh is his ultra conservative self.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
Damn! I should've saved by bet for today.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
Yea, we're gonna win 10-0!
Maybe our special teams will get away with a block in the back on a DPJ punt return.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
This one really comes down to whether Michigan comes out at full speed or needs a little time to warm up.
If Michigan can get on the board early--especially if they can open up an early two-score lead--Wisconsin will have to start drifting away from the run. Suddenly, we're getting more possessions, and Wisconsin is leaving its biggest strength in the garage for stretches at a time.
If Michigan stalls early and allows Wisconsin to open up an early lead, this thing will become a slog as Wisconsin does everything it can to drain the clock.
Either way, that 10-point spread ends up looking laughable. In scenario one, Michigan wins by at least three scores. In scenario two, someone is sneaking out with a W by the skin of their teeth.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
Yep - this is how I view it too. You said it better than I did and also provided a more balanced, reasoned take. So kudos to you for being a rational fan, which I struggle to be so I just go all in with a we-win-big prediction. 27 hours 'til kick!
October 12th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^
I could see either scenario playing out, but it's just as likely that one team or another scores a garbage time TD and changes either a close game or a blowout into a 10-point final score.
October 12th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
Possible insider info that one Mr. Black will be in the lineup...?