Today's Rooting Guide / Latest on Brackets
There's no way around it, outside of A&M and Virginia Tech (I think the latter was already in), yesterday was a great day on the bubble for Michigan. Losses by SMU, St. Louis, and Dayton were massisve.
So, where does that leave Michigan? Here's what I'm seeing this morning:
- As of last night's Bracket Matrix update, we're in 116 of 125 brackets
- We're listed as the 2nd 11th seed (which would basically be the last team to avoid Dayton)
- Interestingly enough, I went to the Bracket Matrix rankings and, I'm happy to report that the top 5 rated bracketeers all had Michigan in! In fact, most had them avoiding Dayton but a few didn't.
- Our NET ranking stayed at 34.
- We're still 26 on KenPom
The one concern I'm seeing is, if we get sent to Dayton, quite a few brackeeters have us playing Texas A&M. I personally would like to avoid that at all costs. They're playing amazing right now. I'd much prefer a matchup with Notre Dame or Wyoming but alas here we are.
So, the rooting guide is simple today:
- (1pm EST on ESPN) - Texas A&M vs. Tennessee - We want Tennessee to win this one. This game could have a big say on if we get sent to Dayton or not. If A&M wins, they're guaranteed to stay out of Dayton (conference champions can't be sent there). I guess the one good thing about A&M winning is we'd avoid them? Either way, Go Vols!
- (1pm EST on CBS) - Richmond vs. Davidson - We're rooting hard for Davidson. No way around it, if Richmond wins, they're going to steal a bid from someone. We are close-ish to the cut line no matter how you look at it, so a Davison win today would be a relief. Thanks for knocking out TWO bubble teams but you gotta go, Richmond.
Thanks everybody for the compliments and feedback on these posts. They were actually super fun to put together! Go Blue, let's go dancing!
March 13th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
Without these posts I would be completely lost at sea on the bubble. With them, I have been able to be consistently intoxicated to some degree the entire weekend and still maintain my bearings. A big thanks.
True Blue 9 - Thank you!
March 13th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
Naturally, less than 10 mins after I posted this, Bracket Matrix just ran an update. They have us as the 3rd 11, which would spare us from Dayton by 2 spots. They have the 4 bubble teams in Dayton being: Wyoming, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and SMU. Reminder, if Texas A&M wins today, they're guaranteed to be out of Dayton, thus pushing Indiana there (we're just above them, according to Bracket Matrix).
121 of 131 bracketeers have us in. This update includes VA Tech and Texas A&M in the field, so that's a good thing for us for sure.
Feeling good going into today.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
if Texas A&M wins today, they're guaranteed to be out of Dayton, thus pushing Indiana there (we're just above them, according to Bracket Matrix).
This is why I like the college basketball ranking system. Football is more about who you beat or lost to lately and overall record. Basketball is about the entire body of work. Nevermind the big comeback win over Michigan in the B1G tourney, go play in Dayton you Hoosiers.
Body of work. I'll be pleased if we make the tournament but our body of work leaves me thinking it will be a quick dance.
Question. No Dance, or quick dance? That is the question.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
If we are out, it’s because we lost double digit leads to Seton Hall, Central Florida, and IU. This is not a team that did all it could and left it to the Committee.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
We did not possess a natural leader. Hunter, Eli, and Devonte all possess some admirable leadership qualities but they did not have what Burke, Sauce, Walton, and Mo did. When the tough got going we didn’t have a natural leader to take us home. Hopefully we can sneak in here and one will emerge.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
I mostly agree. Brooks and Jones are physically incapable of taking over and dominating. Hunter can but only against certain opponents, his game doesn't care well vs guys his size or athletic bigs. He does his damage vs guys he dominates physically.
Another takeaway is we don't have a coach who is going to exploit other teams or account for any coaching intangibles to give us an advantage. We win against the teams we should, and every once in awhile we beat better teams when everything aligns.
Even with our difficult schedule 17-14 is underachieving. I think we all would feel alot better with 20-11. That feels about right.
I just hope this isn't our normal going forward as Juwan said he will be praying come selection Sunday. It didn't need to come to this.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
So evidently you don’t read the board much. For instance, without our very last win, we are out!!! That’s it no way around it. Guess who put us in his back and carried us physically into the tournament? Yeah that’s right, Devante Jones. Sometimes it’s just so easy to spue stuff out and not realize that you’re not actually capable of analyzing certain things either. It’s ok. If you’ve ever played the game you’d know why saying someone is actually not physically capable of doing anything and being a division one athlete, just aren’t literally possible. Devante Jones and the Ohio State game is your answer. Try and follow the whole body of work. GO BLUE
March 13th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
Brooks and Jones are physically incapable of taking over and dominating.
Replying to just this one statement!
March 13th, 2022 at 12:08 PM ^
Got it.
I haven’t seen any evidence Brooks is capable of that. Jones has done so sporadically.
A2Townie, I get it - you don't like Howard or Hunter - but your take is flat false.
Let's start with Dickinson - "can only (dominate) against certain opponents, his game doesn't care well vs guys his size or athletic bigs". That's garbage.
He had absolutely huge games against both Purdue and Indiana, 2 of the 3 other B1G teams with dominant bigs. He's completely dominated Purdue's gigantic monsters AND Indiana's super athletic big. He had a great game against Seton Hall's huge, athletic rim protector, and last year against Garza. That's a TON of success against elite big men.
Jackson-Davis got the better of Hunter the other day, but it's very possible he was fatigued after missing time with illness. Hunter dominated him every other time they've played. Cockburn gives him trouble, for sure. Of course he has an easier time against lesser players - who doesn't?
He's just a sophomore. Bigs typically take longer to develop. While he's had some sub-par games, overall he's been super productive in a league loaded with good big men.
Regarding Howard. My gosh, such recency bias. LAST YEAR they won the B1G and made it to the Final 8. Was that all luck? Was that team just so amazingly talented they overcame Howard's inability to "exploit other teams or account for any coaching intangibles"? C'mon.
This year's team had a ton of turnover and is super young. They were massively overrated. They're inconsistent but have clearly improved after a dismal start to the season.
It's fair to criticize Howard's (and Hunter's, for that matter) demeanor. IMO it's wrong to assert Howard can't game plan and Hunter can't outplay good opponents. Both assertions are demonstrably false.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
Yeah, that's every bubble team. Each one of them has several coulda / shoulda games. Win any of those and we aren't on the bubble.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
If today was Sunday and I do mean selection Sunday all, “if’s” become irrelevant. Michigan is in and that’s all facts!!! GO BLUE! Thanks for all your hard work fellas!!! One of thee hardest schedules, youth and overcoming all types of unforeseen obstacles. You young men have earned it, without a doubt!!!
i think the MN loss was the worst. and it was at home. we would be tied at 4th in the big ten.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
Different team but the last time we played a scary Texas am team we fucking blasted them. The good ol days
March 13th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Good callout. I'm almost thinking that A&M has that feel of UCLA last year. But I suppose it's also possible they run out of gas.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
UCLA lost four straight to limp in last year. Kind of the opposite of A&M.
Oregon St. seems like the better comp. And they did parlay their end of season run into an elite 8 appearance.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^
You're absolutely right, I had that backward. Thanks
The other potential positive of playing A&M is that the game would be Tuesday or Wednesday. They would be playing their 5th game in 6 or 7 days while it would be Michigan's 2nd in that span.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
Thanks for posting these! It's been great to follow and appreciate the work.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
Despite the 17-14 record, Michigan’s strength of schedule and relatively high NET and KenPom rankings should get them in the field of 68, even if it means a three-hour bus ride south on I-75 to Dayton for their first game. Rutgers is the only Big Ten team that could be on the outside, heading to the NIT.
Judging by this morning's updated Bracket Matrix, Michigan and Indiana both get the final two 11-seeds, while Wyoming, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and SMU would be heading to Dayton as 12-seeds and Rutgers now would be the First Team OUT and getting a 1-seed and possibly three more home games in the NIT. They’re only in the field for 74 of the 131 bracketologists listed.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
I'll be surprised if Wyoming isn't ahead of Michigan. And Rutgers is a huge wildcard based on their excellent Q1 record but bad losses and metrics. I think they could be ahead of us too.
Good chance we're in Dayton, IMO. And if either Texas A&M or Richmond wins today, the odds of first four go up. Although if it's Richmond that wins, Davidson could be below us.
Rutgers’ resume screams “Dayton” to me. Some big wins and some absolutely horrendous losses. With a net ranking in the high 70s they’d be lucky to be in the first four.
"Wyoming, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and SMU would be heading to Dayton as 12-seeds"
I'll confess ignorance on all this bracket matrix stuff so this question is probably dumb, but given that there are 13-, 14-, 15-, and 16-seeds, why would a 12-seed go to a lowly play-in game?
March 13th, 2022 at 11:47 PM ^
13, 14, 15 and 16 seeds are typically automatic qualifiers that won their conference championships but aren't usually as good as the worse at-large teams. The worst four at large teams "play-in" for the final two spots and that usually means they're 12 and 11 seeds.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
I guess I didnt realize yesterday was a good bubble day for us because I was mainly watching VT and A&M. Good to hear
March 13th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
Oh it absolutely was. Me personally, I thought VA Tech was in regardless of last night's results. The A&M game stunk for sure. But yea, having Dayton, SMU and St. Louis knocked out was huge.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
Yeah, everything else went Michigan's way: Indiana lost, SMU lost, Dayton lost, Tulane's chances of stealing a bid ended, St. Louis' chances of stealing a bid ended.
That's why we still have a chance to get a bye.
March 13th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
Thanks again. Very helpful !
March 13th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
Yeoman work on these numerous bubble updates, TB9. I hope all your hard work is rewarded around 6:30...
March 13th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
We’re rooting for the better teams in both matchups (Tennessee and Davidson), but the hungrier team who is fighting for the tournament is always dangerous.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
TB9, where can I subscribe to your newsletter? Great stuff, per usual!
March 13th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
Great job - these are awesome
March 13th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
Hold on to your butts!
March 13th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
Thanks for all the hard work! I hope you have a very satisfying 6pm hour today
March 13th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
You and me both friend!
March 13th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
A match up in Dayton between Michigan and Notre Dame is too much for the NCAA and CBS to pass up. I don't think it matters who wins and who loses today. There is enough corruption in this process for it to be a fait accompli.
This is my thought process…regardless if Michigan deserves a bye into the tournament, We will get eyeballs on Tuesday/Wednesday night. Thank God Memphis played its way off the bubble, because I guarantee they would’ve had Memphis/Michigan square off in a Juwan/Penny battle.
March 13th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
Thanks TB9!!!
March 13th, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^
I wonder if the Committee will lock Michigan out to send a message to Juwan….hope not.
March 13th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
And what would that be???
March 13th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
No. This is all about money. Michigan is a huge draw. If anything, they will get the benefit of the doubt.
I have no idea whether the Committee gives a shit about TV ratings of potential teams, but if they do, having a team with a "controversial" coach like Howard would grab lots of eyeballs.
March 13th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
Those that watch the Davidson-Richmond game are in for a treat. Hyunjung Lee is an absolute sniper at 6’7” who can also make plays off the dribble and is a creative passer. He will get plenty of looks from NBA teams. Nothing wrong with watching a sharpshooter from Davidson in March
Richmond’s been playing fun too but we need Beilein’s old team to go down.
March 13th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
Heard they also have a pretty good white dude, Foster Loyer. Seems like a guy that would really thrive at a power 5 school
He was the best player in the history of Hobbiton High.
Have been following him in box scores as would be cool to see a fellow Korean make the league. Needs to do some pushups though and doesn't look ready to follow that other Davidson guard just yet.
Maybe just an off game but was hoping for more as I saw he trained in Australia as part of NBA development program