Today's Rooting Guide / Latest on Brackets

Submitted by True Blue 9 on March 13th, 2022 at 10:08 AM

There's no way around it, outside of A&M and Virginia Tech (I think the latter was already in), yesterday was a great day on the bubble for Michigan. Losses by SMU, St. Louis, and Dayton were massisve. 

So, where does that leave Michigan? Here's what I'm seeing this morning:

  • As of last night's Bracket Matrix update, we're in 116 of 125 brackets 
  • We're listed as the 2nd 11th seed (which would basically be the last team to avoid Dayton)
  • Interestingly enough, I went to the Bracket Matrix rankings and, I'm happy to report that the top 5 rated bracketeers all had Michigan in! In fact, most had them avoiding Dayton but a few didn't. 
  • Our NET ranking stayed at 34. 
  • We're still 26 on KenPom 

The one concern I'm seeing is, if we get sent to Dayton, quite a few brackeeters have us playing Texas A&M. I personally would like to avoid that at all costs. They're playing amazing right now. I'd much prefer a matchup with Notre Dame or Wyoming but alas here we are. 

So, the rooting guide is simple today:

  • (1pm EST on ESPN) - Texas A&M vs. Tennessee - We want Tennessee to win this one. This game could have a big say on if we get sent to Dayton or not. If A&M wins, they're guaranteed to stay out of Dayton (conference champions can't be sent there). I guess the one good thing about A&M winning is we'd avoid them? Either way, Go Vols!
  • (1pm EST on CBS) - Richmond vs. Davidson - We're rooting hard for Davidson. No way around it, if Richmond wins, they're going to steal a bid from someone. We are close-ish to the cut line no matter how you look at it, so a Davison win today would be a relief. Thanks for knocking out TWO bubble teams but you gotta go, Richmond. 

 

Thanks everybody for the compliments and feedback on these posts. They were actually super fun to put together! Go Blue, let's go dancing!

Blue in St Lou

March 13th, 2022 at 3:25 PM ^

I understand that as a conference champion, Davidson can't go to to the play-in round. But why do they have to be an 11 seed or better. Can't they be a 12 (not going to Dayton) or lower if that's where they belong?

EDIT: I just reviewed the NCAA selection rules. As a conference champion, Richmond can be seeded anywhere other than the First Four. But since Davidson seems to be a lock regardless, that will knock out the last First Four At-Large team and move the last 11 Seed At Large team into the First Four. I guess everyone else knew that.

Joined: 09/21/2013

MGoPoints: 6718

jdraman

March 13th, 2022 at 3:34 PM ^

Taking a quick peek at BracketMatrix, they just did their final update before the selection show at 6PM. Michigan is still a whole 3 spots above the cut line. ND is the team that was bumped out because of Richmond's win in the A10 tourney final. 

Edit: Figured it would also be useful to include that Michigan is in 91 out of 100 brackets on the final BracketMatrix update. 

Joined: 10/23/2019

MGoPoints: 12122

chatster

March 13th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^

Note that the final Bracket Matrix before the Selection Sunday broadcasts lists only four 11-seeds, including Michigan and Indiana as the final two, and six 12-seeds, including Rutgers that would be the Last Team In (ahead of Notre Dame, SMU, Xavier and Oklahoma as the First Four Out). Of those six 12-seeds, three are conference tournament champions that are supposed to be able to avoid the First Four games.

If the final Bracket Matrix is accurate, then the selection committee would have to add an 11-seed and take away a 12-seed. If Texas A&M were to become the fifth 11-seed, then it would create a tough decision for the committee choosing between Michigan and Indiana to meet Texas A&M in a First Four game in Dayton. The other First Four game then would be Wyoming and Rutgers, thus giving the First Four a distinctive Big Ten flavor.

CAVEAT: Only 100 bracketologists' predictions were included in that final Bracket Matrix, so the people at The Bracket Project might want to continue updating the matrix to cover all 140 of the bracketologists who'd been listed in a previous version of the matrix, unless The Bracket Project has a rule that they'll only include predictions that arrive before a set time.  

Joined: 09/14/2010

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chatster

March 13th, 2022 at 3:56 PM ^

I also note that Rutgers (average score of 11.73) is listed in the field by only 55 of the bracketologists and Notre Dame (average score of 11.57) is listed in the filed by 54 of the bracketologists.

Four days before St. Patrick's Day, it looks it might come down to the wire between the Scarlet Knights and the Fighting Irish.

Joined: 09/14/2010

MGoPoints: 27028

shags

March 13th, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^

Another thing to pay attention to when the brackets are announced:  The seeds of Big Ten teams.  If the first bracket comes out, provided Michigan isn't a part of it, and Wisconsin is a 4 seed, or Illinois is a 5 seed, that's bad news for Michigan (and Indiana and Rutgers).

It means the committee thinks that the Big Ten wasn't as strong as the bracketologists thought.

Joined: 09/08/2012

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goblu330

March 13th, 2022 at 3:56 PM ^

I kind of no longer care whether Michigan is in the field.  I’m just OCD-ing on whether they are going to be in or not and just need the answer to come.

Joined: 01/07/2022

MGoPoints: 32235

tybert

March 13th, 2022 at 3:57 PM ^

I think we're still in and were going to Dayton no matter what.

Probably getting to play TAMU, which I think will be interesting, but not that tough. 

I think ND was the biggest loser this weekend. They lost already to IU and TAMU. Only quality wins were UK and UNC. 

Once you're in, it really doesn't matter. VCU and UCLA have proven that already in past years.

Davidson led by 6 with 130 to go and gave up three straight basket-plus-the-foul. That was like our meltdown vs. IU but all in 90 seconds. Look at their schedule - not even a single quality win. Easy win for somebody this coming week.

Joined: 11/17/2008

MGoPoints: 8536

goblu330

March 13th, 2022 at 5:29 PM ^

The entire state of Michigan just got sunny, raised 15 degrees and the birds are chirping.  The cosmos is leaning toward Michigan in.

Joined: 01/07/2022

MGoPoints: 32235

Ham

March 13th, 2022 at 5:35 PM ^

I think this Iowa team is legit. The combination of a lottery pick (which I don't believe they've had before) and sharpshooters will make them a tough out. They're certainly peaking at the right time.

Joined: 01/10/2011

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chatster

March 13th, 2022 at 6:00 PM ^

If the First Four in Dayton becomes Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Rutgers (as Joe Lundardi predicts), college football fans will be thinking, "One of these is not like the others."

Joined: 09/14/2010

MGoPoints: 27028

B-Nut-GoBlue

March 13th, 2022 at 6:02 PM ^

Yes...good luck to whoever gets to play Iowa in the coming week(s).  They're likely stuck at a 5 seed and it doesn't truly matter (4s and 5s play each other in the 2nd round regardless) but beyond that, Iowa is playing like a 1 or 2 seed right now.  The defense still only registers as ~95th in ppp but it's sooo much better right now than in years past.

Joined: 09/30/2011

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