Today's Rooting Guide / Latest on Brackets
There's no way around it, outside of A&M and Virginia Tech (I think the latter was already in), yesterday was a great day on the bubble for Michigan. Losses by SMU, St. Louis, and Dayton were massisve.
So, where does that leave Michigan? Here's what I'm seeing this morning:
- As of last night's Bracket Matrix update, we're in 116 of 125 brackets
- We're listed as the 2nd 11th seed (which would basically be the last team to avoid Dayton)
- Interestingly enough, I went to the Bracket Matrix rankings and, I'm happy to report that the top 5 rated bracketeers all had Michigan in! In fact, most had them avoiding Dayton but a few didn't.
- Our NET ranking stayed at 34.
- We're still 26 on KenPom
The one concern I'm seeing is, if we get sent to Dayton, quite a few brackeeters have us playing Texas A&M. I personally would like to avoid that at all costs. They're playing amazing right now. I'd much prefer a matchup with Notre Dame or Wyoming but alas here we are.
So, the rooting guide is simple today:
- (1pm EST on ESPN) - Texas A&M vs. Tennessee - We want Tennessee to win this one. This game could have a big say on if we get sent to Dayton or not. If A&M wins, they're guaranteed to stay out of Dayton (conference champions can't be sent there). I guess the one good thing about A&M winning is we'd avoid them? Either way, Go Vols!
- (1pm EST on CBS) - Richmond vs. Davidson - We're rooting hard for Davidson. No way around it, if Richmond wins, they're going to steal a bid from someone. We are close-ish to the cut line no matter how you look at it, so a Davison win today would be a relief. Thanks for knocking out TWO bubble teams but you gotta go, Richmond.
Thanks everybody for the compliments and feedback on these posts. They were actually super fun to put together! Go Blue, let's go dancing!
March 13th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
One more Bracket Matrix update just now:
- Michigan is in 130 of the 140 brackets listed. All were updated either yesterday or today.
- We're listed as the last 11 seed (first team escaping Dayton)
- The last 4 teams in the tourney (aka who gets sent to Dayton) are: Wyoming, Notre Dame, A&M, and Rutgers. This really shows why it's so important that A&M and Richmond take losses today.
- First 4 teams out, in order: SMU, Xavier, Oklahoma and Wake Forest.
March 13th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
My prediction is that Notre Dame is out. They're 53rd in NET and have only 2 Q1 wins. I know Lunardi loves them for some reason, but they have no place in the tournament.
March 13th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
I posted this to the thread yesterday but if you put aside recency bias and look at the resumes of Michigan and Indiana it's a no brainer:
Michigan Q1: 5-10 Q2: 3-3 Q3: 6-1 Q4: 3-0
Indiana Q1: 4-8 Q2: 4-4 Q3: 5-1 Q4: 7-0
Quadrant records are extremely close. Same exact win % in Q1 and Q2. Michigan with one more Q1 win is better than IU's one more Q2 win. Michigan has one more Q3 win (for context, the Rutgers win was Q3 so that's not meaningless). Let's conservatively call this a push if you're excited that IU played four more q4 games.
Let's check the metrics...
Michigan: NET: 34; Resume Ranks Avg.: 40.5; Quality Ranks Avg.: 28.7
Indiana: NET: 39; Resume Ranks Avg: 53.5; Quality Ranks Avg.: 33.7
IU is not ahead of Michigan in any of the six individual ranks.
Advantage: Michigan
Can we find something IU can hang their hat on? Road Record: Michigan 5-7, IU 3-8
Advantage: Michigan
Let's to head-to-head: Michigan won by 18 (!!) at IU, IU won by 5 at a "neutral" site
Advantage: Michigan
Hmmmm, maybe IU is hot, right? They won two BTT games!
But prior to winning those, IU was 2-7 (!!!) since Feb 1, so 4-8 since then including BTT.
Michigan is 7-6 since then. They're 10-6 since the covid break.
Advantage: Michigan
SoS: Michigan 3rd, IU 34th
Advantage: Michigan
If the only argument for IU is tHeY hAvE a BeTtEr ReCoRd (literally the only thing they have) without even drilling down, let's talk about Dayton or any other random team with a better record than both of them. If IU is ahead of us, burn it all down.
I can see arguments for Rutgers (more q1 wins and much better q1 win %), I can even see an argument for BYU ahead of us (better q1 win %) but not IU.
March 13th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
Stats matter
To drill down even further, 4 of Michigan’s quad 1 wins are quad 1A (basically the top half of quad 1), while only 2 of Indiana’s are quad 1A. So while the overall quad 1 records are effectively the same, within that Michigan still has the more impressive resume.
Also, Indiana had 9 games against the bottom 5 teams in the big ten, Michigan only got 6. So Michigan finished with a better record in the same conference against a tougher schedule, even if you add in the BTT games.
Great breakdown! To me, Michigan's spot tonight should teach all of the bracketologists a lesson about how much raw W/L means. If it is a big factor, expect Michigan to miss the tournament or be one of the last ones into Dayton. If it isn't, I think avoiding Dayton is possible. I don't know what will happen, but I think it will teach us all something.
The metrics are just a tool and not the end all be all. If they were gospel, no reason MSU would be ahead of Michigan because their NET and Kenpom ranking is lower. Yet the Spartans are nowhere near the bubble. The committee will dig deeper than just what a computer tabulated.
Correct.
The quadrant records are the primary evaluation method. It's the way the committee can evaluate schedules with drastically different difficulties.
MSU has Q1 of 5-9, Q2 of 7-1 (!!!)
Michigan Q1 of 5-10, Q2 of 3-3 and they have identical Q3 and Q4 records.
So it's not even close that MSU has a much better resume. It doesn't matter if Michigan has slightly better quality metrics, MSU has a way better resume.
When the quadrant records are inconclusive as it the case with Michigan and IU, they go to the secondary tools including the metrics.
Not only have these been great for tracking the brackets but which teams are playing well right now. Great stuff!
Wondering if the Wisconsin incident will have any affect on selection.
I highly doubt it.
If anything, it helps Michigan. The NCAA loves storylines and drama.
What about the Syracuse incident?
Are we supposed to be rooting for Princeton or Yale?
Can confirm that a one-bid league either way. Probably better for the field if it's Yale. Princeton appears to be the better team.
The fact that we are on the right side of most projections at 17-14, shows how much the process has changed. In decades past, that record alone would be exclusionary. Glad we have looked into the whole body of work more than just W/L
In 2001, UGA was an at-large bid with a 16-14 record, and they were an 8-seed. An 8-seed! The committee has always done a fairly good job at looking past the surface-level of just the record.
Except with Syracuse, seems like they always got in with a barely .500 record and often with a losing conference record. There were many years I couldn’t understand how they got in at all
But but but Jerry Palm says...
/s
You mean Jerry face palm? 🤦🏻♂️
I'll be curious to see if he has any reflection if Michigan ends up comfortably in. He is big on calling people out for citing things that aren't criteria (conference record) but continues to tout the 4 games over .500 thing which also isn't criteria.
Worth mentioning we’d be 4 games over 500 if Purdue Fort Wayne didn’t get covid
Normally everyone loves an underdog, but bubble teams across this great land are pulling hard for Davidson to beat those spiders. Solid end to the half for Davidson!
Seth Davis has us in…for what that’s worth!
If they are going to give the B1G a 9th team, it feels likely they will be motivated to put one in Dayton. Here is hoping for IU.
Like someone above mentioned, I have this nagging feeling the committee wants ND vs. Michigan in Dayton....
I think we could make a run in the tournament if we get a weak bracket.
i don't like our chances if we get a play in game. i don't see us winning 3 games in 5 days with the minutes howard gives our starters.
Another update just now from Bracket Matrix, only includes brackets updated today:
- Michigan in 77 of 88 brackets.
- Still listed as the last 11 seed, just below Miami and just above....Indiana
- Last 4 in: A&M, Wyoming, ND, and Rutgers
- First 4 out: SMU, Xavier, Oklahoma and Wake Forest
Looking good but I'd feel a lot better if Davidson pulled this out
Looking at the first four out, it’s pretty hard to make a case for any of them over Michigan. Xavier was 8-12 in Big East play. Wake has a dog shit schedule and didn’t beat anyone above a 9 seed. SMU has a better quad 1 percentage (they were 2-2) but that is mitigated by having both a quad 3 and quad 4 loss. Oklahoma’s resume is basically “Michigan but worse.”
Of those four, SMU is the one I’d worry about, but I also would put M well ahead of Notre Dame. Seriously, both teams have two “bad” losses, but M is 5-10 against Q1, and ND is 2-8. Michigan is almost 20 spots better across the computer metrics. I don’t even get how it’s close.
Can someone tell the Davidson coach that “Foster Loyer posting up” should not be part of the offense?
And can they please stop lying about him being 6-feet tall
You gotta give it to Loyer.
When I was watching them yesterday and they said he was their leading scorer, I fell off my chair.
Dude went to a big time mid-major and is doing very well.
Gilyard > Foster Loyer
i do not see how byu and xavier get in. byu finished 5th in their conference going only 2-6 against the top 4 teams. xavier finished 7th in the big east with a 8-11 record.
i think ND is in since they tied for 2nd in the acc.
i think UM should get a play in game.
Where a team finishing in the conference standings does not factor in to the committee’s decisions. BYU and Xavier should miss the tournament due to their lack of quality wins. ND should also just miss because of their lack of quality wins, though they did beat Kentucky.
i think it's part of the old "eye test"
Foster Loyer single-handedly trying to send us to Dayton.
I know we are rooting for Davidson but it's been kind of fun watching former MSU captain (thanks CBS, we heard you the first 6 times) Foster Loyer get absolutely worked by a guy who is generously listed at 5'9 160lbs.
Yeah I suppose.
For me, I am completely impressed at how well he is playing with Davidson.
This Davidson/Richmond game has turned into a ref show now.
Davidson up 6 late
Davidson up by 5 with 1:17 remaining but Mike Jones has 4 fouls.
Refs and Davidson doing their best to get Richmond in
Tenn winning big has to be good. A and M was never in this ball game.
Davidson up 2. Richmond has the ball.
Davidson doing everything they can to lose this one
Man when was the last time there were consecutive possession for either team that didn’t result in a whistle…this is ridiculous!
I feel like Richmond is going to drill a 3 right now.
Edit - old fashioned way.
how many damn and ones can you give another team in the final minute?
Fucking Richmond
3 free points on 3 possessions for Richmond from and ones. This is ridiculous