Time to Guess What our 2020 Football Record Will Be

Submitted by xtramelanin on October 21st, 2020 at 8:58 AM

To You Great MgoSeers and Prophets,

You are called to task right now:  the task is to peer into the future and tell us what the Wolverines will do this year in terms of wins and losses.  You get extra points for picking our cross-division game #9, and that outcome, as well as any bowl predictions.   Whether you suffer from 2020-accelarated BPONE, you are an ecstatic lunatic, or you fall somewhere in between, it is time to share your prognostication.   

And if any of you are correct, I'll mail you the sunglasses from a certain mod that I am holding hostage.  They are nice, not overly fancy, a sure crowd-pleaser for the fashion conscious mgoblogger.

Have a great day,

XM

 

 

Saturday
Oct. 24Minnesota Golden Gophers Football Scheduleat 21 Minnesota Golden GophersTCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN7:30pm 

Oct. 31Michigan State Football ScheduleMichigan State SpartansMichigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI12:00pm ETFOX
Nov. 7Indiana Football Scheduleat Indiana HoosiersMemorial Stadium, Bloomington, INTime TBA ETTV TBA
Nov. 14Wisconsin Badgers Football Schedule14 Wisconsin BadgersMichigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MITime TBA ETTV TBA
Nov. 21Rutgers Football Scheduleat Rutgers Scarlet KnightsSHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJTime TBA ETTV
Nov. 28Penn State Football Schedule8 Penn State Nittany LionsMichigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MITime TBA ETTV
Dec. 5Maryland Football ScheduleMaryland TerrapinsMichigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MITime TBA ETTV TBA
Dec. 12Ohio State Football Scheduleat 5 Ohio State BuckeyesOhio Stadium, Columbus, OH12:00pm ETFOX
Dec. 19Big Ten Football Schedulevs Big Ten TBDSite, City TBDTime TBA ETTV TBA


Dec. 19Big Ten Football ScheduleBig Ten ChampionshipLucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN8:00pm ETFOX

QuentinKyle

October 21st, 2020 at 11:31 AM ^

Really well thought-out analysis; thanks for the great contribution! FWIW, I think I'm in complete agreement. 

Barring major impacts from COVID/injuries, I think your 6-2 outcome is most likely, followed by 5-3. 

I'd be mildly disappointed with 5-3, happy with 6-2. (I guess also just "happy" with 7-1; since it's hard to be "ecstatic" while losing another one to you-know-who.... trade loss to them for loss to literally anyone else, then I'm "ecstatic", for sure!)

 

BlueMan80

October 21st, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^

7-2 (hoping all games get played) because whenever we put a new starting QB on the field, that seems to result in at least 2 losses where QB inexperience/inconsistency kills us.  Speight in 2016 had injuries as contributing factors.

cp4three2

October 21st, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^

This season will be a test of whether or not the Harbaugh-can't-motivate-which-is-why-he-struggles-on-the-road theory is true. If true, we're going 5-4, if false, we're going 7-2, which is basically the 74% winning percentage we have every year.

 

Lose to OSU by 17 then win 2 of 3 between Minnesota, Wisconsin, and PSU is the ceiling.  Defense is going to get torched by high-end offenses.

The Fugitive

October 21st, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^

Can't wait for the Lost in Space offense and Frank Pentangeli's defense to get lit up by anyone with a pulse.  3-7 best case scenario.

Losses to Minn, IU, Wisc, PSU, OSU (by 50+), the crossover vs NW, and whatever bowl game the team mails it in for. Hurray. 

Perkis-Size Me

October 21st, 2020 at 1:19 PM ^

Damn, man. I thought I'm a big cynic but even I'm not that cynical. I very much treat IU like OSU treats Michigan. Prove to me you can beat actually us and get the job done, and then maybe I'll start pegging you for W's going forward. 

That said, I did get a really good chuckle out of the Frank Pentangeli comparison. 

Jmer

October 21st, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^

I would like the option to revise my guess after this saturday but ill take 7-2. With losses to OSU and who ever we play as the 2 seed in the cross over matchup from the West.

RoZ06

October 21st, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^

4-4

Too many interceptions on O, and our lack of corners and DT depth are exposed on D. But it's such a weird year with all the COVID variables that I'm forced to revise my guess.

8-0   

Perkis-Size Me

October 21st, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^

Worst Case: 4-4. Beat the scrubs on the schedule, scrape by Indiana because we are to them what OSU is to us. A huge mental hurdle that they can't get past. "Salvage the season" by beating MSU, but lose to the teams with a pulse. Get crushed by OSU, Milton clearly isn't the guy, he gets benched for McNamara by the Wisconsin game, go into another offseason with far more questions than answers. 

Best Case: 7-1, and that's if Michigan catches some breaks. Milton has to be better than expected and the corners have to find someone who can step up and be the next guy. If Milton turns into a game-changer, Michigan can and arguably should beat everyone on its schedule not named OSU. Enter The Game 7-0, lose a game that is not necessarily a nail-biter, but far more competitive than the past two years. Milton makes some great plays and shows you he's the guy going forward. Final score something like 51-41. Michigan beats whoever their final cross-over opponent is, and goes to an NY6 looking like they made a great choice to bring Gattis in. 

I'll take the middle path and guess 6-2. Michigan loses this weekend because Milton is still getting his bearings, plays a bad game and causes a few bad turnovers. He slowly rebounds over the next six weeks and starts looking better, the secondary's problems are masked by the fact that Michigan doesn't play against a lethal passing attack until the last game of the season, then they get their yearly OSU reality check and lose badly. They could also go 5-3, but I bet they claim at least one game between Minnesota, Wisconsin and Penn State. 

Milton overall looks okay, but he goes into the offseason far from having the job locked down, and this blog tries making its case for 8-9 months why McCarthy or McNamara should have the job. 

MacMarauder

October 21st, 2020 at 10:51 AM ^

I'm glad there are so many predictions with 1 or 2 losses, shows there is hope out there. However I have the BPONE and am going with 4-4. Wins against Sparty, Indiana, Rutgers & the Terps. Losses to Minnesota, Badgers, PSU (this one I'm conflicted on) and OSU. Start proving me wrong this weekend please!

Spitfire

October 21st, 2020 at 11:03 AM ^

7-1 with our loss to OSU. I think we're going to have a good year. Was going to go 6-2 with the other loss to Minnesota but I have a good feeling about this week for some reason.  

GET OFF YOUR H…

October 21st, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^

I think you guys are in for a hell of a opener.  This game on Saturday I believe directly impacts your record much more than people may think.  Win and 7-1 and 2nd in the East is a real possibility.  Confidence grows going on the road week one against a competent team, and honestly it doesn't matter if it's a 2019 Army performance, or 2019 ND performance.  If the win is there, it sets you up well.

However, lose on Saturday and you are in a situation where Milton could get down on himself, the secondary could suffer the same fate if they give up yards and points and you can't pull out a win.  Fans claim the Milton hype was nonsense, and the secondary is a Safety and a bunch of random dudes.  

I can't believe I'm saying this, but as a OSU fan I'm pulling for you guys on Saturday.  In an abbreviated season where the conference is behind the 8 ball, if OSU were to win the conference and hope for a playoff spot, a 7-0 or 6-1 Michigan the last week of the regular season and a conference championship the next weekend goes a long way toward awarding the conference with a spot in the playoff.

So when you go to sleep at night, just ignore the nightmares of OSU fans actually rooting for your team.

GET OFF YOUR H…

October 21st, 2020 at 1:00 PM ^

I'm having a tough time wrapping my head around it as well.  But in a season where every team considered for the playoff is going to have a different number of games played, you need the good teams on the schedule to do well.  Schedule strength is going to matter, especially if everyone ends up with one loss aside from one or two teams.

Gree4

October 21st, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^

I am not worried about MN, I think they are good but not great. They just dont have the depth (have you heard that before?) we do. 

My mind tells me one loss, my heart says this is the year Harbaugh and team stun OSU. 

 

Undefeated - and UM will struggle against IU 

MGoStrength

October 21st, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^

Good QB play...6-1 or 6-2.  OK QB play 6-2 or 5-3.  Poor QB play 4-4.  I'd guess 5.5-2.5 as OSU is a loss and PSU/Wiscy/Minnesota are push games.  I think UM should win two of those and go 6-2, but that's hard to assume so 5-3 is just as likely.  Everyone else I like a win.

DMill2782

October 21st, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^

@Minnesota - W, but a nail biter. 

MSU - W

@IU - W. Their passing game might make this really annoying.

Wisconsin - L. I'm not confident our DL can hold up against their OL. I really hope I'm wrong.

@Rutgers - W. Please leave the Big 10. 

PSU - W

Maryland - W

@OSU -  L and it's not even close again.

Crossover Iowa - W

huntmich

October 21st, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^

7-1, Loss to Minnesota this weekend while the team gets their feet under them.

 

We will be going into the Horseshoe without a crowd. It isn't going to be rocking as usual when we play there. Their players won't be able to feed off that noise. At that point, Milton will be settled, the O-Line will have gelled, and any secondary issues will have been resolved.

 

We replay Wisconsin in the B1G championship game, win, get left out of the playoffs because a 4-1 Georgia team apparently means more.

Perkis-Size Me

October 21st, 2020 at 11:27 AM ^

I don't know if its drugs you're taking or drugs you need to be taking, but if you think we actually have a chance against OSU, then you need some help, my friend. 

Fields is going to absolutely torch this secondary. With the exception of Dax, I don't think there's a single guy back there who can keep up with the onslaught of 5* receivers that OSU gets to throw out there. 

Mongo

October 21st, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^

My prediction comes in three scenarios and then a "likely" conclusion:

  1. Joe Milton is the next Cam Newton ... 10-1, B1G champs, CFP runner-up (to 'Bama)
  2. Joe Milton is Shea Patterson ... 6-4 (5-4 in B1G, with easy bowl win)
  3. Joe Milton is high school Joe Milton ... 4-5 (no bowl game)

I think Joe will take a couple games to develop team chemistry at game speed but ultimately becomes better than Shea (both run and pass).  However, expecting Joe to be the next Cam Newton is ridiculous hype.  The following is my most likely scenario:

  • @ Minn ... defense comes to the rescue  U-M 24 Minn 21 (OT)
  • vs. MSU ... RBs run wild  U-M 42  MSU 17
  • @ IU ... Joe comes alive in a shootout  U-M 45 IU 38
  • vs. Wisc ... Joe leads a complete game  U-M 38  Wisc 24
  • @Rutgers ... yikes  U-M 63 Rutgers 3
  • vs. PSU ... defensive battle in the cold/sleet  PSU 15  U-M 12
  • vs. MaryL ... bounce-back  U-M 35 MaryL 10
  • @ OSU ... wild shootout, but too many horses to catch  OSU 56 U-M 49 (OT)
    • U-M 6-2 regular season and #3 in the East
  • vs. Iowa (#3 West) ... solid victory on both sides of the ball  U-M 28 Iowa 14
  • Tough bowl match-up which we play well but lose (because we rarely win bowl games)

So there you have it ... U-M finishes season 7-3 ranked #15 nationally

 

uminks

October 21st, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^

I think we lose 3 may be 4 this season. I have MN as a loss and one of the two home games against WI or PSU. And of course we may get blown out in Columbus. I think we will go to one of the mid size bowls and play Iowa State or some middling team from the SEC.

UWSBlue

October 21st, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^

I have concerns about Milton in an abbreviated first season (he has to start hot), the WR's ability to go to get the ball and also the late movement to shore up the DB's.

4-4 or 3-5

mitchewr

October 21st, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^

If we actually play the whole season, and games aren't canceled...

Optimistic me is going to say 7-3:

  • QB play actually looks marginally competent and Milton improves his accuracy enough to make the offense actually functional
  • We lose to Minnesota (cause it's the first game of the season and it's on the road), Penn State, and of course the annual blowout loss to OSU
  • Win over Nebraska in the cross-over game
  • The team actually cares about the bowl game for once and makes an effort because idk why (since bowl games are apparently meaningless) and we manage to win one for a 7-3 season

Pessimistic me is going to say 5-5 / 4-6:

  • QB play is once again extremely underwhelming and the offense goes nowhere
  • We lose to Minnesota on the road, lose to Wisconsin & Penn State, and of course the annual blowout loss to OSU
  • We draw Iowa in the cross-over game and they have an "up" year this year because naturally they would. We play away from Ann Arbor and so therefore naturally the team turtles and we lose...then we go to a bowl game and because every team out there apparently cares about bowl games except us, we lose that too for a 4-6 season

    OR
     
  • We draw any other team from the western division and manage to squeak out a win but once again look really bad in the bowl game and lose that too for a 5-5 season

 

Here's to hoping that my prognostications are pure trash and we finally break open a high powered offense and manage to slay the giant and play for a B1G Championship.

 

"Few can foresee wither their road will lead them, till they come to its end."

tkgoblue

October 21st, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^

In my humble opinion there are four games that Michigan could loose. Minny; PSU; Wiscy; and Indiana. I think our coaching staff has enough credit to split those games. Then I think a Loss at OSU. So I think 5-3 as an expectation. Loosing more would be under preforming. Winning more would be over achieving. I’d say match up with Iowa in the champions weekend.

Moleskyn

October 21st, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^

@ Minnesota - Toss Up

vs MSU - Lean to Win (I know MSU is bad, but it's a rivalry and they will give us their best shot)

@ Indiana - Lean to Win (on the road, plus Indiana is always tough)

vs Wisconsin - Toss Up

@ Rutger - Win

vs PSU - Toss Up

vs Maryland - Win

@ OSU - Lean to Loss

 

That's 4 winnable games, 3 toss-ups, and 1 likely loss. Two of the toss-ups are at home (though does homefield advantage matter in a Covid season?).

If UM wins the winnable games, plus the toss-ups at home, we are looking at 6-1 heading into the OSU game. Recent history, plus OSU's stacked roster tells me UM likely loses again this year, but who knows. I think the biggest factor here is Milton's development over the course of the season - has it all been empty hype, or do we have the best QB in Harbaugh's tenure here?

My prediction: 6-2

M_Born M_Believer

October 21st, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^

Minny - W

I know all about Milton and his stats and first start.....blah blah blah.  Minnesota starting right line is out and Michigan's front 7 keeps the game in control.  Tanner hits Bateman a few times but Michigan's run game (and weather) wins out in the end

MSU - W

Sparty is just not any good......  This one could get ugly

Indiana - W

40+ wins in a row and Indy has a shaky D.  Too many memories of TEAM Chaos, but this team in NOT TEAM CHAOS

Wisconsin - W

Home game takes the advantage.  I do not see Johnathan Taylor jogging out of the tunnel

Rutgers - W

Next.....

PSU - W

Again at Home.  PSU has a good D but Michigan scored on them last year.  Parsons is out and now Brown is out as well at RB.  They will be playing without their 2 best players and I do not see Speedy Eaglets sprinting out of the tunnel

Maryland - W

See Rutgers above....

OSU - L

See overall positional rankings from the other thread (OSU 10 - Michigan 25)

9th game - Iowa - W

Iowa (They finish 3rd but I looked at the other schedules and believe that Wisconsin will beat Minny thus winning the division.  Minny finishes 2nd but gets bumped for Iowa to avoid a rematch)

Bowl Game - Georgia - L

Georgia's D is too much for Milton.....this year....

Final record 8-2

Obviously COVID will throw a monkey wrench in all this, but these picks are based upon the rosters today.....

WorldwideTJRob

October 21st, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^

6-2!!! I think people are over reacting to the Minnesota game. Think we have an advantage in that one since our offense might look different than what we had on film last year. Probably drop one to PSU or Wisky & Lose to OSU.

kurpit

October 21st, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^

5-3 if they play all the games. I think they'll pull an upset in one of the 4 games they're preseason underdogs in. I'd guess that Wisconsin is the most likely of those games to win since they're working with a new QB and new receivers too so they're least likely to shred our secondary. But winning that game also probably relies on not getting manhandled in the trenches like they did last year, so... who knows?

pinkfloyd2000

October 21st, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^

Provided we get all 8 games in for the "regular" season, I'm gonna go with 5-3, and then a win in the crossover game (against whatever opponent) to finish 6-3.

So, not terrible, but not terrific -- but certainly, par for the course insofar as Michigan football is concerned.

FWIW, I think we will get all of the games in with no cancellations. Now, of course, we might be short some personnel in some games, too, but every B10 team might have to deal with that. Purdue is already gonna be minus their head coach on Saturday.

 

StirredNotShaken

October 21st, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^

It all depends on Milton.

If he competently executes the offense (baseline expectation) then I think we are 5-3 in the first 8. Losses to Minnesota, Ohio State and one of Wisconsin/PSU. Possible we're 6-2 at the baseline performance level from Milton. 

If he's executing the offense and "making plays!" then I think 7-1 is reasonable, especially since the road atmosphere will not be as much of a factor for the Minnesota game this year.  

If he struggles to execute the base offense then probably 3-5 or 4-4. 

So, yea, who knows? A lot depends on one dude. 

SecretAgentMayne

October 21st, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^

Anywhere from 4-4 to 6-2, although my gut tells me 4-4 is probably more likely than 6-2 honestly my expectations are pretty low this season: super weird year with COVID and a number of position/depth questions marks at some key positions. IMO this is pretty much just an asterisk season and more or less a preview of the young, up and coming talent for 2021.

AlbanyBlue

October 21st, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^

I originally said 5-3, maybe 4-4 or 6-2. But with the new QB, turnover on the OL, persistent DL issues, and a questionable CB situation, I will downgrade just a touch. We will be running into stacked boxes again, and the defense will have its troubles.

Losses @Minnesota, Wisconsin, PSU, and @OSU. This is the year that more people start to think we are behind PSU in the Big Ten East.

So 4-4 is most likely, with 5-3 reasonable if things break our way.