SP+ picks. UM in a squeaker.
https://twitter.com/espn_billc/status/1443192575628914688?s=21
UM 24 UW 23
Maryland over Iowa
ND Cinci Tie
This link is not behind a paywall as Connelly puts this out on Twitter.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
I would take that result.
The Maryland result would be surprising, but I think Mike Locksley has them moving in the right direction. Maryland is a major trap game for us next month and might just be a legit game as they might actually be decent.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
I haven't seen much of their games, but Iowa seems to have had tons of TO luck.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
Why would that be surprising? Maryland is ranked higher than Iowa in SP+ and playing at home.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
Didn't Maryland just lose Tagavialoa to injury? I mean, that's what MD does - lose QB's to injury. I don't see them beating Iowa...
I also cannot see a tie, since the college tiebreaker goes on forever and is the best tie breaking system devised for sport.
I can easily see Michigan beating Wisconsin. I can also easily see Wisconsin beating Michigan. This is the game I've been looking forward to for seeing what UM actually is this year. (I know, this is a raw take that nobody else has...)
September 29th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
His brother is on IR for the Miami Dolphins.
September 29th, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^
Way to mix up a pro QB with a college QB 1VaBlue1. lol
September 29th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
I’m guessing a tie result (it actually has ND edging UC by .1) would be for a 60 minute game. Since you can’t score .1 (or the predicted .3 vs .2) an overtime result of an ND win would probably still be technically correct.
As for the UM vs UW game…I have no positive expectations anymore, so I’ll be happy to be pleasantly surprised.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:07 AM ^
Well it won't be a trap if they beat Iowa.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:18 AM ^
Wouldn't that be a Maryland terrap game?
September 29th, 2021 at 10:46 AM ^
I honestly wouldn't be that surprised by the Maryland result. Iowa I think is a good team, but a bit of a paper tiger because of the early turnovers they created in the season, some of them relatively lucky. When Iowa isn't turning people over, they're offense is having a tough time putting points on the board. If Maryland doesn't commit turnovers I think they could outscore Iowa in a relatively low scoring game.
September 29th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
Maryland is averaging 1 turnover per game though...so it's more likely they do commit at least one. My question would be, if Iowa manages to shut down the passing game, what's their next best pitch? If Iowa goes FULL BIGTEN WETDREAM on them and runs the ball for 38 minutes and Maryland has a couple 3 and outs...it might not be close. And for whatever turnover luck Iowa has, they always have been able to manage good offenses fairly well. They've given up more than 24 points maybe 8 times in the last 6 years I think.
September 29th, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^
It has happened 14 time since the start of 2015.
September 29th, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^
Outside of the Northwestern home game.....i think every one of our remaining games is a "legit" game and would be considered a huge win as an outcome!
September 29th, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
Maryland is good. Tuas brother is better than Tua.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:24 PM ^
The Maryland game will be contested on November 20th, almost a full 2 months from today.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
Hmmm....not a good feeling on this game. Harbaugh teams have laid to many duds on the road. Hope for the best but Rutgers game was a reminder of same ole same ole
September 29th, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
Same feeling. Wisconsin is playing for their lives at home. I don't think our offense will have good answers for their run stopping defense. On the other side, our bend but don't break defense will give up some points. I'm hoping for the best but if I'm betting it would be Wisconsin -1.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
I'm just the opposite. I just think we're playing solid ball right now and also feel like Wisky is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their preseason hype - especially Mertz - was just nuts. They're a team living off of past results.
Not trying to say we're world beaters yet, but more of this has to do with the Wisky hype. I think UM wins this one going away
September 29th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
We haven't won there in like 20 years; if we'd done a better job against Rutgers I might be with you, but with us struggling like we did in the second half I think it's going to be a close one, but one we can win. Man, it'd feel great to win this one!
September 29th, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^
It helps that it’s a game that begins at 11 am in Wisconsin. I went the last time that happened and the crowd was actually pretty subdued. And it was a big game — the one we lost when Brandon Peters went down. But it’s really hard to win there under any circumstance. So I’d have a hard time putting money on Michigan, especially given its road record of late.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:50 AM ^
Wisconsin will win by 18 plus. Michigan’s defense won’t be able to get off the field unless Wisconsin scores or fumbles. Michigan’s d-line will not be able to do anything with their very average D line minus hutch.
September 29th, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Have you seen Wisconsin play this year? Their offense hasn't score more than 13 points vs the 2 P5 teams they've played (1 at home and 1 neutral site). 18 would be a helluva points for that offense. Their run game is not as good as it was in years past. Their QB has 1 touchdown (ONE!) this year. Versus like 6 interceptions. And we now run a defense that makes QB's think and has basically kept the opposing team's in check (nobody has scored more than 13 on us). If Wisconsin wins this game, it'll be a 13-10 type of squeaker.
September 29th, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
People around here just like to make predictions with their feelings. My favorite is "we haven't won there in 20 years!", as if what happened with a Lloyd Carr team 15-20 years ago has anything to do with this team.
September 29th, 2021 at 6:11 PM ^
The game hinges on Cade. He will get hit hard, its the Wisconsin way when it comes to our QBs.
He has to connect downfield to keep the box count down. If he does that we win going away.
I'm one to think he will get over the wall on this one.
September 29th, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
I agree with this. My only hope is that if Cade does go into a shell after a hit or bad pass, that the staff will put in JJ for at least a series and allow Cade a chance to reel it back in.
September 29th, 2021 at 4:52 PM ^
I'm predicting 3-2. Mertz continues to throw picks and amazingly they cannot run the ball. Similarly, we struggle to run and of course we only attempt like 5 passes. One attempt of which results in a safety on our part, but fortunately we get a turnover deep in their territory and make a lonely field goal to win.
Sound crazy? Remember the M00N game?
September 29th, 2021 at 10:14 PM ^
I’ve watched Michigan’s defense combined with Michigan’s in ability to covert and sustain drives their defense will eventually cave and give in. This allowing Wisconsin to win big.
September 29th, 2021 at 5:28 PM ^
SP+ seems to forget that when Michigan is the road team, home field advantage is worth 17 points
September 29th, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
Seems right, the game feels basically like a tossup.
I feel like the game comes down to Mertz. If he keeps turning the ball over and gives UM some extra possessions we win, if he figures out whatever is plaguing him and plays a good (or at least non-negative) game then the Badgers win.
September 29th, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Agree that the Mertz factor could be huge but I'd argue UM QB play may be a bigger determining factor. First Half Cade for a full game? UM wins and is even able to make some plays in the run game vs a tough Wisconsin defense. Second Half Cade and it is hard to see 24 points.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
I believe we have the talent to win. I think, for the first time in a while, we have more talent than Wiscy. If Michigan executes and doesn't get stubborn / run on every first down / be uber conservative, I think we win by 10.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
Would hate to see UM go up by 10 and go into clock kill mode. Fingers crossed that doesn't happen. The play calling in the 2nd half last week was mind boggling. I
September 29th, 2021 at 10:11 AM ^
Yeah man. It really is SO WEIRD. 1st half was great. 2nd half looked like "Bizzaro World". Stacked box after stacked box and you still are running up the middle. Just Bizarre.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
I am waiting on UFR because live it seemed the backs, Corum in particular, were missing holes.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Stacked box after stacked box and you still are running up the middle
Check out the Monday morning quarterback segment Sam Webb does with Devin Gardner. Devin is a great analyst and has keen insights into the offense and how Gattis is likely calling the game. That 2nd half wasn't just run after run into a stacked box. There was a drive where Gattis called 3 straight passes, and called a pass play on several first downs. Cade simply had a bad half that doomed the offense (he had a bad read too on his only QB keeper, where Corum is likely off to the races if Cade hands it off like he usually would).
September 29th, 2021 at 10:19 AM ^
I think the gameplan we saw vs NIU would get us a win like that. The lack of creativity we saw vs Rutgers will lead to another frustrating road loss to a not-great Wisconsin team
September 29th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
We shall see... But don't get your hopes up. At a minimum, I want us to play a winnable game.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:45 AM ^
SP+ picks. UM in a squeaker.
I personally don't see it. Wiscy has the #1 rushing defense in the nation and that's all UM does. They are only allowing 23 yards per game and 1 yard per carry. And, that's not against WMU and NIU. We're talking about holding PSU to 50 yards rushing and ND to 3 yards rushing. It's going to be a long game for UM. I'm expecting a game similar to 2019 where we can't stop their running game and can't get ours going.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
I agree. When you actually dig into the head to head stats, it’s a grim look for us being able to score. We are going to have to pass…A LOT. I’m anticipating getting killed, something like 38-10.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
If we can't beat a 2-loss Wiscy team in Madison, then the disappointing JMFH road game legacy lives on!
September 29th, 2021 at 5:11 PM ^
I know you're hoping for it...
September 30th, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
If you didn't take every opportunity to trash the staff via gifs, I wouldn't ever comment.
September 30th, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
Your not paying attention are you??? My main issue is with JMFH, as he is in charge of everything including staff hires and retention, and he has underperformed and my main issue is with him.
October 2nd, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
Yes I know that very well. Last I checked though, he is staff.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
All UM does is run but all Wisconsin does is...run poorly? Their passing game has been way worse than ours. So has their running game. Defense looks legit though.
September 29th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
Their passing game has been way worse than ours. So has their running game.
I think that's the argument for UM getting a win. If they can limit Wiscy's run game and force them to pass and get turnovers like ND did they can score. The other option is UM getting it's passing game going. I'm skeptical of both, but more so of the latter. I see UM's defense tiring as the game wears on because the offense can't get going and leaves the defense on the field too much.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:09 AM ^
I see UM's defense tiring as the game wears on because the offense can't get going and leaves the defense on the field too much.
That's the big worry - that Wisconsin will be a continuation of the second half against Rutgers.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
"If they can limit Wiscy's run game"
Syracuse and Delaware held Rutgers to 50 and 163 yards rushing, respectively.
Rutgers ran for 196 on Michigan.
ND completely shut down Wisconsin's running game, but I suspect that was largely due to ND devoting its defense to that task, daring Mertz to beat them through the air. He wasn't able to do that.
This game has all the earmarks of an ugly, relatively low-scoring affair that is greatly affected by special teams and turnovers.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^
Don. Sounds like you are describing what I felt too, something like a 9-6 or a 6-9 badger on wolverine type of game?