Rumors: Florida St trying to join the Big Ten within the month
I looked everywhere and didn't see this posted yet. Lots of rumors that Florida St is looking to join the Big 10 within the next month. Appears to be just rumors at this point... but often when there's smoke, there's fire. I guess they are (rightfully) angry about being left out of the CFP and perhaps they feel being in the ACC was part of the reason?
December 11th, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
Wavy Gravy.
Canned Heat.
December 11th, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
"Canned gravy?"
When fully out of season, we should probably have a thorough discussion about gravy. I haven't searched (shame on me), but I don't recollect this board ever having a meaningful debate on the merits of various gravy recipes/techniques.
We really need to do so as a service to humanity. We already know a large percentage of media content comes from those who simply steal from MGoBlog.
After all, we have already been claimed "iconic."
December 11th, 2023 at 7:35 PM ^
This reminds me of the great G.K. Chesterton quote, “Poets have been mysteriously silent on the subject of cheese.” Just sub gravy here.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
How big is the Boston market, and what percent of it is into Boston College football?
Ask Northwestern about the Chicago market or Stanford about the SF Bay market.
I don't recall BC's TV numbers being anything special. In that sense, they remind me a little bit of Pitt.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Markets don't matter in the same way they did when cable was exclusively dominant. In that era, getting added to regional cable systems brought dollars in directly to BTN.
Now, as fewer people are subscribing to cable, getting BTN added to cable services in large metro areas is far less important.
With Hulu/YouTubeTV/etc. becoming key providers, the new metric is how many eyeballs can a team draw overall, such that a channel like BTN has increased value to a nation-wide service provider. On that metric, BC brings almost no benefit.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Boston Market dot gif
December 11th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
It will be FSU and ND. Once FSU starts the process, Clemson will move to the SEC. ND will no longer want to be affiliated with what will basically be a G5 conference at that point (maybe still in other sports, but not football). ND's best option for continuity of schedule at that point is to join the Big Ten and schedule Navy and Stanford OOC.
The Big Ten needs to decide what it's long-term plan is and commit. They have been trying to slow-play things, but they can either wait to see what the future looks like and react or mold the future themselves. I think their goal has been to get to 20 at which point FSU and ND are the best you can do. If they want to go over 20, then they're going to have to do some relegation, at which point adding teams like UNC might become more feasible.
December 11th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
This is accurate - read the tea leaves....NBC/Peacock purchase of B10 football is a move to entice/force ND to join and make for easier negotiation talks.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
The Big10 doesn't even feel like a conference anymore. No geographic connection. Just a whole lot of teams with a loose association to one another. It could 4 years between games with some of them? Or more? I always think of the Lloyd Carr "money" statement whenever more expansion comes up. For me at least, I've had more than enough of this.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Going to be interesting to see how big time programs react to regularly having 'down' years.
4 Ls in a season would be considered a 'bad year.' Now you might regularly play 4 top 15 teams a year just in conference play alone.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
I agree, this is going to be fascinating. And, I hope, fascinating from an outsider's perspective, but one can't be sure.
College and NFL football are similar enough that the differences can be startling if one isn't prepared for them. 10-7 is a pretty good year in the NFL and all franchises will have years like that; most will even be reasonably happy with them. That's because the NFL has 32 teams and significant regulatory pressure that drives teams toward parity.
College football is more polarized with haves and have nots, but when you play in a conference with a lot of haves, you're going to lose more games. We're going to see records move more toward an NFL-like picture with really good teams losing multiple games. But the old paradigm where a 3-loss season is a disappointment for a program like ours will be hard to shake.
The changes will come in fits and starts, but there will almost certainly be a couple of programs in a couple of years that have very understandable middling years where the fanbase goes bananas because they just aren't used to playing so many games against elite teams.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
That is what I keep thinking about when talking about adding all these teams that have decent to really good football programs. Going to have the top team or 2 in a league with 2 or 3 loses (maybe more??)
December 11th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
Keep in mind that the schedules will be extremely unbalanced. Given that, and the sheer number of teams, I think it's likely that you're still going to see the league champ have just one loss, or none. But winning the league may not as much, as a lot of it will come down to the scheduling draw.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
Even more to the point, in a potential super league/conference situation 5-10 years down the road without Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, etc. there are going to be blue blood teams that have losing records. That will feel very strange to their fans. In the NFL one of the major influences on the maintenance of relative parity is that the teams with the worst records get the pick of the draft the following year.
This obviously won't apply to next gen college football, which means that once a typically great program starts losing more often they won't have an easy way to restock quickly. The transfer portal and NIL will help but be less of a guaranteed path back to winning than the draft is in the NFL. Gonna be a whole new world when it gets here.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Oh, the attraction of a pro/rel system.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
You snuck in while I was typing my post, and while I am *highly* skeptical of pro/rel every working in the US, it's interesting that our two posts popped up consecutively.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
I completely share your skepticism, but it's fun to think about...
For all its downsides of the concentration of talent at the top (which, college football is like "same, same") at least pro/rel gives teams one level down a tangible benefit (promotion) and teams that are consistently bad a consequence.
Given the emphasis on playoffs in the US, you'd obviously need bigger divisions, say 40ish teams, but you could easily imagine a 3 tier college football ladder. Add in the drama of potential promotion (and relegation!) playoff games...
December 11th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Best analogy to this I can think of is European soccer, where the rich tend to get richer and stay rich.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Even more to the point, in a potential super league/conference situation 5-10 years down the road without Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, etc. there are going to be blue blood teams that have losing records.
I have a really hard time seeing a super league happen, for this precise reason. It's better for the "brand" to beat up on a lot of weaker opponents and then go to the playoff than to play other bluebloods all the time.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
You briefly mention parity but in my view this is a/the gargantuan elephant in the room relative to college football trying to find a National Champion at the end of the year-from a pool of 130+ schools. The NFL can reasonably play for a yearly champion with 32 teams, a 55 man roster, contracted employment and players who can be in the league for 10+ years. The most reasonable facsimile in college would be something like the SEC and B1G each having two, 12-team, tiered (relegation?) divisions with 4 to 8 teams from each of the top divisions playing a post season playoff. And since we are headed toward paying college players and making them employees put them under contract for 2-3 year terms.
December 11th, 2023 at 6:30 PM ^
The teams that go pro can probably just use the same collective bargaining agreement as the NFL, with minor adjustments for scale. They could easily go to a draft model, too, since there wouldn't be many teams (few teams even now make money without considering the salaries of the players when the teams turn pro) and they'd have enough common interests to make that sort of agreement possible.
One of the things that could help towards parity is that these new ex-college pro teams could bring in lower-end pro players that don't get contracts that are all that lucrative, or that get cut from an NFL team.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
(a) You're overrating the new additions based upon this year's quarterback play.
(b) It wasn't so long ago that Michigan expected to beat 4 Top 15 teams in a year anyway. In 1997, they beat 6 teams that were ranked #15 or higher at the time they played them -- Colorado, Iowa, at MSU, at PSU, OSU, and vs. WSU. Oh, and Notre Dame, who was #11 preseason but turned out to be meh.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
I think it'll start feeling like the NFL playoff hunt or even other NCAA sports where taking losses isn't devastating - maybe most like NCAA hockey. Yes, it's dissappointing to be 9-3 but hey you're still the #8 seed or something so you have a shot at redemption if your team is hot at the right time
December 11th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Agree with you. The success of a college football season will be measured two fold:
1) Did you make the playoff
2) How did you perform in the playoff
This is no different than how college basketball has been for a long time. The negative feeling of a 19-11 season can be wiped out with a magical run to the Elite 8. Likewise, a great 28-3 season is a waste if you lose in the first or second round.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
I hear you, its not the same college football we grew up watching. All conferences are changing though. I don't care about SOS anymore. Just beat osu and make the playoffs is what matters to Michigan now.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
One suspects that the Conference will want to see how incorporating four new schools will work before adding anything other than a true slam dunk, which FSU is not. Let's see how USC, UCLA, UW, and UO work before doing anything more is a sensible approach.
An given FSU's unhappiness in the ACC, it is hard to see them taking something worse than the UW/OU reduced distribution deal. That's hard to paint as a "win."
Also, I suspect AAU membership is an actual criteria with the university presidents.
December 11th, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^
“Also, I suspect AAU membership is an actual criteria with the university presidents.”
like Nebraska?
December 11th, 2023 at 3:33 PM ^
My understanding is that Nebraska was AAU when accepted and lost it later. The fact that it is a criteria doesn't mean that it is a decisive criteria is every case. It did not help Stanford and that's probably the biggest academic star in big time college sports.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
Well the ACC bad deal is with ESPN so... they ain't wrong. Wronged maybe but not wrong.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
If the rumor is true, it can't be because of the playoff snub this year. The 12-team playoff ends that complaint cold. It would have to be based solely on money - the B1G pays out way more than the ACC can hope to pay in the future, let alone today.
Besides, I kinda hoped that Michigan would go to the ACC, so this just seems backward.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
The most sensible reason would be FSU wanting to get away from ESPN. It is still incredible to me that 12-0 FSU, while they were winning their championship game to reach 13-0, had to listen to ESPN say they still wouldn't deserve the playoffs.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
Concerning the Fox/ESPN broadcast teams it was like a mission for every single one of them to push the Bama thing. Strangest shit ive ever seen. It was like a corporate email just went out and it was time to tow the company line. Still wont ever understand #7 and #8 jumping #4 after #4 just beat a solid ranked team. It defies logic.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
As was noted, the ACC media agreement is with ESPN. However, so is the SEC’s.
If the ESPN “powers that be” are thinking about this - the question they’ll ask is.. which team will draw more eyeballs - since, viewership / audience size matters.
IMO, it seems clear - the entire SEC footprint will watch the Rose Bowl … it just means more.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
It’s ok to toe the line. Just don’t cross it.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
The playoff committee has never worked like the media or coaches poll. They have prided themselves on putting out fresh rankings every week.
The committee claims that they don't look at conference affiliations, but I find that hard to swallow because they very clearly care about conference championships. A one-loss SEC champion was simply not going to be left out of the playoff.
December 11th, 2023 at 8:52 PM ^
Agreed. Still doesnt make any sense to me. 15 weeks to come to the 4,7,8 best teams then completely switch. Here is the problem, they wanted FSU at 4 to play Georgia for the easy win. They pushed all their chips in on a Georgia win. If Texas beat LSU and FSU beat bama to start the season it wouldve been..
UM
UW
FSU
BAMA
Texas screwed the committee because they were tied to Bama.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
I have a hard time believing that a month would be even remotely possible. We can't even seem get our contracts with our football coach done in that period of time.
I don't know much about the academics of Florida State but it would be a new market for the Big Ten Network so it's always possible.
I disagree that being in the Big Ten would not solve that. An undefeated Big Ten champ is getting in, period. But good luck winning the Big Ten.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
Anybody that goes undefeated in the new Big Ten or new SEC should get an autobid to the championship game. These are true gauntlets.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
Eh, maybe in the b1g. But the sec is still content to play only 8 conference games and one of their OOC’s is still going to be an FCS or low fbs school that essentially gives them two bye weeks a season. Not to mention that the sec is only adding two new schools, and although they both are in the current top25, the b1g is adding 4 schools that spent a lot of time there this year while also scrapping divisions, meaning the #1 and 2 teams in the b1g could have already played once during the season, with another in the championship game.
IMO it’ll be an easier road for the best sec team to go unbeaten during the season while the b1g champ is likely to have 1 or 2 losses.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
Yeah, I can see them being extremely frustrated over being left out of the playoff, but as someone already said, the playoff expands to 12 next season so joining a conference with far better compeition doesn't seem like the wisest move on their part. It seems more likely that its frustration talking (if there is real talk of it at all) and cooler heads will prevail.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
I've heard on numerous podcasts that FSU folks have some serious animosity towards the ACC and have for some time. FSU making an attempt to leave isn't that surprising. Would be interesting to see if anyone would be interested in tagging along.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
If FSU bails, you gotta assume the other presiigious academic/athletic schools will be looking for opportunities too. UVA, UNC, Duke...
December 11th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
That ACC exit fee *and* media GoR are going to be difficult to pay off. FSU may hate being stuck in the ACC right now, but they might not be able to leave for a while.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
I can't see them joining alone. If their joining 'buddy' is Notre Dame, I can see it happen. But with any other program I see significant complications. North Carolina would be a political thing given they share governance with NCSU, Virginia would be a very dubious choice given their lack of football relevance and major support. Miami doesn't fit the profile at all. Clemson is culturally a different country virtually.
December 11th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
They'd join with a partner -- probably one of Miami, UNC, UVA, Clemson, or ND
December 11th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
I guess they are (rightfully) angry about being left out of the CFP and perhaps they feel being in the ACC was part of the reason?
The main reason was that a bunch of dopes that don't know enough about football are put on a committee to make really really big decisions.
December 11th, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
I don't know how much it has to do with how much they know about football rather than the broadcast corporations' ability to exert influence and pressure.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
The sec is getting left in the dust at this point. I can see the sec reach out to Michigan for joining the SEC or even Miami at this point.
December 11th, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
Many took their being left out as the death blow to The ACC and I agree. It may continue to exist but their programs with any athletics prestige will bail quickly and leave them as a shell of a conference.
Like it or not, CFB is basically going to be two or three conferences of consequence within the decade. You're in or out. The sport will finally admit it's a professional league (well, half-admit) and behave as such. If FSU, Clemson, Miami and a few others are still a part of The ACC as currently formed in 2025 I'll be very surprised.
December 11th, 2023 at 6:44 PM ^
If some teams go pro, that by itself will demolish the conferences. Purdue and Northwestern et al are neither going to spin off pro teams nor play against pro teams.
It will be interesting to se where the TV money goes: to the new pro league teams, or to the traditional student-athlete teams. I'm betting it will be the latter, and the new "junior pro" teams will need to become explicitly NFL farm teams to survive.