Rooting interests this weekend based on CFP Ranking?
1. I know. Just win and it will work out.
2. However, it is fun to watch other games and have some vested interest in pulling for a certain team to win.
3. I know its too early to worry about this stuff. Once again, just looking for an excuse to be glued to CFB all weekend.
I have not broken down the landscape, so I was wondering if anyone knows who we should be pulling to win these games?
Bama at LSU - It seems like we might want Bama to kick out LSU ahead of us. But, if LSU wins could there be 2 SEC teams in the mix? Bama is most assuredly going to make it even if they don't win the SEC. (Same issue might arise even if Bama wins, but somehow losses to UGA in SEC title game)
ND at Northwestern - Once again, seems like we want NW to kick out a ND team ahead of us. But, we want ND to be a "good loss" for us and it might be better for us if they win out (and OU, LSU and others fall). Or does having another midwestern team hurt our chance before the CFP?
Other games - I assume we want OSU to win out up to The Game. But, do I really need to root for that? Of course, we want Kentucky to pull off theupset and hope Texas Tech has some fight in them....
Any insight? (Thanks in advance.)
October 30th, 2018 at 7:58 PM ^
since we are 1 spot behind ND, them losing to unranked NW and us beating 14 PSU would put us past them (and LSU if they lose). Plus the chance to play and win an extra game helps us.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^
That's a fair point. 1 loss ND may or may not be ahead of us, 0 loss ND definitely is ahead of us. So go Wildcats!
October 30th, 2018 at 7:58 PM ^
I think we have more to gain than we have to lose with an ND loss (e.g. an actual spot in the playoffs... potential for a 2 or 3 seed at that- which could be valuable in the likely event Bama is #1.)
I do think the committee will penalize ND for not being in a conference and not playing in a championship game, along with a late season loss.
That said, call me crazy but i'd love a rematch of ND vs Michigan. I truly believe Michigan is the better team.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:10 PM ^
The debate associated with a NW victory over ND would be intriguing. Yes, ND will claim they should still get the edge because of the head to head outcome with UM.
But, that was a long time ago and what if we have beaten NW twice by the time the final rankings are determined? That is kind of an interesting wrinkle to the always-fun transitive properties of college football schedule analysis. Is beating ND's victor twice enough to trump the head to head card? If the NW victory over ND were strong enough, I think it might.
That fun little wrinkle would not play out until the B1G Championship.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^
Alabama >> LSU (don't want ANY chance of 2 SEC teams)
Kentucky >> Georgia
Louisville >> Clemson (lol)
Nebraska >> Ohio State
Texas >> West Virginia
Northwestern >> Notre Dame (undefeated ND will always be ranked ahead of us, 1-loss ND? who knows)
Temple >> UCF
Texas Tech >> OU
Cal >> Washington State
Mizzou >> Florida
ASU >> Utah
and of course......Michigan over Ped State
October 30th, 2018 at 8:22 PM ^
Why NU over Ohio State?
October 30th, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^
Because fuck Ohio state
October 30th, 2018 at 8:38 PM ^
this
plus, if the division is wrapped up we may be looser for "The Game" and let 'er rip
October 30th, 2018 at 9:07 PM ^
And if officiating is biased, it would be biased in our favor for once.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^
Because everyone always over Ohio State. Also, another conference loss to OSU gives us some cushion in the conference. Also, we don't need Ohio State to be a great team to boost our resume. They could lose out, and Michigan gets in by winning out.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^
This is all true.
The OP says root for OSU to win out until they play us.
Nope. Nebraska winning in Columbus would be fucking hilarious.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:33 PM ^
Clemson has had a brutal schedule, that NC State wolfpack team was ranked what? Like 16 or something? What are the Wolfpack ranked today?
October 31st, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
There is actually an interesting history of Kentucky pulling off SEC upsets at home. Weird, overtime, late-comeback kinds of games. Kentucky is to the SEC what Purdue is to the B1G.
Kentucky upsetting Georgia is win-win for Michigan, I think.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:02 PM ^
I’m rooting for Michigan, ND and Iowa go win the west. Those two are needed to finish out the revenge tour.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:02 PM ^
Why is Alabama still being in with a loss such a foregone conclusion? They will end up with a bad sos if they miss the sec cg.
It’s not comparable to them being ahead of osu last year because osu got left out with 2 losses, one of them being a huge blowout.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:09 PM ^
Because people are so negative that they can’t think straight. A 12-1 Michigan gets in, regardless of anything else.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:47 PM ^
Agreed. And if that's the case, we just want to avoid being the 4 to Bama's 1.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:22 PM ^
Because we've seen Bama get a ludicrous amount of benefit of the doubt in the past and still, for reasons that may or may not be rational, believe past events indicate future outcome. Is it possible a 1 loss non-champion Bama gets left out? Sure. But it's possible they steal a spot, whereas there is zero chance of a 2 loss LSU taking one. So let's cheer for the outcome that gives the committee the least opportunity to be dumb.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:49 PM ^
The second SEC team got in over a two loss OSU (one of which was a blowout by unranked Iowa). The CFP people got it right that year, and I think they will get it right this year too - even if it means leaving out a one loss Alabama.
October 31st, 2018 at 12:24 AM ^
What if Bama makes the SEC CG and loses to Georgia? 12-1 Bama jumps us, 11-1 can’t win their division Bama doesn’t.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:06 PM ^
In a realistic world, we want Bama to win out and that eleminates LSU and most likely Georgia in the SEC title game.
But in a best case world, we would want Bama to lose to LSU but still make the SEC title game(LSU lose again) and then lose in the SEC title game. That way we could be in a playoff that didn't include Bama, which means we would have as good of a chance as anyone.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:16 PM ^
If LSU wins this weekend (they won't), I promise LSU will drop another one, probably to Texas A&M.
A lot of teams are going to lose, and several of those loses will be shocking when they happen. People coming up with nightmare scenarios are just desperate for something to worry about.
If Michigan wins out, we'll be in. That (winning out) is not a given though either. Hell, even Indiana could give us some trouble just like Iowa did two years ago. At least this one is at home. Just win.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:07 PM ^
Beat Penn State. Burn the rest down.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:10 PM ^
It's not complicated. Michigan to win. Teams ahead of them to lose.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:11 PM ^
Michigan and Cal. And I always root against OSU, ND and Stanfurd
October 30th, 2018 at 8:14 PM ^
If we win out, I think we are in the playoffs. Lose anywhere, and we are out. OSU with their loss to Purdue would be less likely than Michigan to make it in as a one loss team. Alabama over LSU takes LSU out. It is unlikey Clemson loses, although anything can happen, but Alabama and Clemson are near locks. If Bama loses to LSU and (probably to Georgia) in SEC championship game, the one loss teams are all in. Oklahoma is still in contention and may be our biggest threat right now. ND will be in unless they lose, and a loss to NW (unlikely but possible) throws a real wrench into the equation. Would love to see UM vs Bama in game one and UM vs ND for championship game. This occurs if all three win out, as does Clemson . Ultimately the best team needs to beat the best teams, so this scenario, while a long shot, would make us undisputed national champs.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^
Would love to see UM vs Bama in game one
No.
No you wouldn't.
Anybody but Alabama in game one.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:17 PM ^
I think there are two situations we're rooting for:
1) Alabama not in the playoff.
2) Alabama #1, Oklahoma #4, Michigan second or third. Sooners outscore Alabama somehow and then Don Brown confuses the hell out of them and we can score on their shitty defense.
Preferably ND 2, M 3 because I want another shot at them.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:30 PM ^
If we make the playoffs, I want Alabama to not make the playoffs.
Plain and simple.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:22 PM ^
This talk about ND losing being in any way bad for us at this point is foolish. They have served there purpose of being a “good loss” at this point - our rank is 5. Now they are ahead of us and a loss moves us up. If they lost two games, that could potentially hurt us. But stop, one ND loss is good for us at this point. Especially it’s against a team we beat head to head (e.g., Northwestern).
October 30th, 2018 at 9:07 PM ^
I hope ND goes 0-4 this month. I hate that school more than life itself.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:13 PM ^
I don’t know how anyone can “hate” ND when there’s a program like MSU within our state’s borders. Hell, compared to MSU I find even OSU tolerable.
November 1st, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^
Because, besides being a Michigan fan, I am a college football fan. And ND is the worst thing about college football. (Though SEC fetishism in the past 10 years is coming close.)
And don't forget, Brian Kelly killed a man.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:09 PM ^
Actually I completely disagree. If both Notre Dame and Michigan win out, both are in the CFP. There is not a scenario that can play out in which it would not be the case.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:25 PM ^
Live and learn. If Georgia wins out-beating an undefeated Alabama for the SEC championship both of those teams will be in. We can collectively kick and scream and shout...but it would happen. ND and Clemson losing puts them below Michigan...Clemson's SOS is in the 90s...even if the committee appears to be defending them with this whole bevy of ACC teams included in the top 25.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:46 PM ^
Disagree. Bama losing in the final week would knock them out. But if they lost Saturday and then both they and LSU ran the tables, I could see those two teams getting in.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:56 PM ^
Not true. If they are #1 and lose to #4/#5 in a close game, they would most likely flip rankings (UGA probably #2, and Bama probably #4)
October 30th, 2018 at 9:52 PM ^
Do you know how utterly insane an ND/Michigan playoff rating would be? ESPN would literally kill committee members for that to happen.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:57 PM ^
NBC can’t trump this, can they?
October 30th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^
Northwestern to beat ND. ND would have to completely fall of the table to affect Michigan for the Final 4. They aren't going to completely fall off the table. ND loses, they're out of the Top 4 for now. And if ND loses, there's no more worrying, for some of you, about Alabama beating LSU. ND out, Michigan in.
It doesn't matter who wins and loses in the Alabama vs LSU game. Alabama barely got in over a 2 loss Ohio St/BIG10 Champ team last year. They won't get in over a 1 loss BIG 10 Champ. Win out, and Michigan is in.
And I'd be watching the Alabama vs LSU game even if there were no implications for Michigan. Especially since it's at LSU.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^
It is rather simple for me:
1) Michigan
2) Chaos
October 30th, 2018 at 8:30 PM ^
If ND loses a game and we are tied with them we are out of the playoffs, they won the head to head, don't fool yourself the games matter. A one loss Alabama team may be out due to strength of schedule. We need the BIG10 to stop beating the crap out of each other. We need Wisconsin, Northwestern, MUS, and PUS ranked to help our quality wins and strength of schedule over a one loss SEC team or Oklahoma. We don't want chaos in the BIG the out of conference losses within the conference will hurt us if the west is really weak. Ideally it would help to have the above BIG teams keep winning, ND undefeated, beat a one loss OSU and than a ranked Iowa with two conference losses in the championship game.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:36 PM ^
Not necessarily. If Notre Dame somehow gets blown out, Michigan will get the nod at 12-1 over them being 11-1. How you lose is important to the committee.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:36 PM ^
Not necessarily. If Notre Dame somehow gets blown out, Michigan will get the nod at 12-1 over them being 11-1. How you lose is important to the committee.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:41 PM ^
Sorry to say I think you've got just about all of this wrong.
A Notre Dame loss is very good for us. It almost certainly opens up a playoff spot, at least as things stand today. We would immediately jump them, and we would continue to widen the gap down the stretch if we keep winning (which we're all assuming in any of these scenarios anywag).
An Ohio State loss before Thanksgiving weekend would be enormously positive for Michigan. First goal is to win the conference, and another conference loss for OSU increases the odds of that happening dramatically.
We don't NEED conference wins from anyone else, so root for chaos and losses to our rivals. That means a more enjoyable final month of the regular season, more pain for our rivals, and no real detriment to us as we're already right where we need to be.
Chaos is what we want. Upsets and losses to PSU, MSU, and OSU.
October 30th, 2018 at 11:30 PM ^
I think we need PSU, OSU, and MSU to be quality wins. While from a schedenfreude perspective it’s fun to see them lose from an SOS standpoint it hurts us.
Think we need teams we’ve played/potentially will play to win.
Northwestern over ND would be huge for us IMO as it releases a spot and helps our SOS.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:13 PM ^
What Michigan did to Penn St 2 years ago didn't matter. Penn St still ended up ranked higher than them in the CFP at the end of the year.
October 31st, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^
This must be the HAWWWWTTTTTESSSSTT of HAWT TAKES out there.
You can't use head-to-head as a auto-tiebreaker in a format that is the furthest thing imaginable from a round-robin season of everybody-plays-everybody. That only incentivizes teams to schedule crap opponents.
But forget that argument, I'll just point at the standings. Look at them! ND #4, Michigan #5. In what universe does a loss not drop your ranking?
October 30th, 2018 at 8:42 PM ^
College Football Playoff Ranking WIN OR LOSE
1. Alabama (8-0) WIN
2. Clemson (8-0) WIN (Louisville sucks this year)
3. LSU (7-1) LOSE (don't see them beating Alabama)
4. Notre Dame (8-0) LOSE* (unless a NW win is better for Michigan)
5. Michigan (7-1) WIN WITH AGGRESSION!!!! FUCK PENN STATE!
6. Georgia (7-1) LOSE (But it is Kentucky so that is wishful thinking)
7. Oklahoma (7-1) WIN (don't see them losing to Tx Tech)
8. Washington State (7-1) WIN (Cal will not win)
9. Kentucky (7-1) WIN (but Georgia is good so doubtful)
10. Ohio State (7-1) WIN (i can't see Nebraska winning this)
11. Florida (6-2) WIN (espn giving 70% win against Missouri)
12. UCF (7-0) WIN (Temple)
13. West Virginia (6-1) WIN (screw Texas)
14. Penn State (6-2) LOSE(Fuck pennstate & their delusional joepa loving fans)
15. Utah (6-2) WIN (AZ ST won't win)
16. Iowa (6-2) LOSE (at Purdue so this could be a good game)
17. Texas (6-2) LOSE (WV is looking good)
18. Mississippi State (5-3) WIN (they play Louisiana Tech)
19. Syracuse (6-2) WIN (WF is 1 -3 in conf play)
20. Texas A&M (5-3) LOSE ( to Auburn)
21. NC State (5-2) WIN (FSU sucks this year)
22. Boston College (6-2) LOSE (toss up 50/50 game and VT lost last wk)
23. Fresno State (7-1) WIN (UNLV is 0-4 in conf and 2-6 overall)
24. Iowa State (4-3) WIN (over Kansas)
25. Virginia (6-2) WIN (over Pitt)
October 31st, 2018 at 2:13 AM ^
If Auburn beats Texas A&M they'll be ranked in the top ten. I'm only half joking here.