Rooting interests this weekend based on CFP Ranking?

Submitted by PeterKlima on October 30th, 2018 at 7:40 PM

1. I know. Just win and it will work out.

2. However, it is fun to watch other games and have some vested interest in pulling for a certain team to win.

3. I know its too early to worry about this stuff. Once again, just looking for an excuse to be glued to CFB all weekend.

I have not broken down the landscape, so I was wondering if anyone knows who we should be pulling to win these games?

Bama at LSU - It seems like we might want Bama to kick out LSU ahead of us. But, if LSU wins could there be 2 SEC teams in the mix? Bama is most assuredly going to make it even if they don't win the SEC. (Same issue might arise even if Bama wins, but somehow losses to UGA in SEC title game)

ND at Northwestern - Once again, seems like we want NW to kick out a ND team ahead of us. But, we want ND to be a "good loss" for us and it might be better for us if they win out (and OU, LSU and others fall). Or does having another midwestern team hurt our chance before the CFP?

Other games - I assume we want OSU to win out up to The Game. But, do I really need to root for that? Of course, we want Kentucky to pull off theupset and hope Texas Tech has some fight in them....

Any insight?  (Thanks in advance.)

Rudywasoffsides

October 30th, 2018 at 8:45 PM ^

Alabama to knock out LSU.

northwestern to beat Nd. (Michigan lost to Nd week 1, but if we want Nd to lose this would be it aginst a common opponent)

michigan must beat penn state! 

If it did play out like this...Michigan would be ranked 3.

S.G. Rice

October 30th, 2018 at 8:47 PM ^

Rooting interests are always 1.  Michigan, 2.  Whoever is playing tOSU, 3.  Whoever is playing Sparty, 4.  Whoever is playing Notre Dame.

 

Just win out and things will take care of themselves.  Start by beating Penn State.

wildbackdunesman

October 30th, 2018 at 8:53 PM ^

Obviously we need to win out.  However, I think we need to keep the number one ranked defense.

If we are 12-1, BigTen champs, and have the best defense I think the committee will give us a playoff spot.

I may be a fool, but if we are the best defense that is a major bonus in a championship selection process that will get pointed out and carry weight.  Plus we are a huge TV draw.

Qmatic

October 30th, 2018 at 8:56 PM ^

If ND loses any of their remaining games they are pretty much toast. If we go 12-1 it will outweigh their 11-1. The committee will not keep us out for ND for a loss in the first week of September. Especially if ND loses to USC. That would mean in the last two weeks of the season we beat OSU in the shoe and won our conference championship. There will be no debate

footballguy

October 30th, 2018 at 8:57 PM ^

In terms of Playoff chances for Michigan (12-1), it would be helpful if Bama wins out.

In terms of National Championship chances for Michigan (12-1), it would be best for Bama to somehow not make the playoff at 11-1. I don't see Michigan hanging with Bama, but I could see them hanging with UGA, Clem, ND, OU, LSU, etc

Hold This L

October 30th, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^

I’d rather not have to worry about ND. If they lose to NW, that would help us. A 12-1 big ten champ may not get in over 12-0 ND if they played head to head. But a 12-1 big ten champ gets in over an 11-1 ND. 

Sideline

October 30th, 2018 at 9:13 PM ^

In a Perfect world? 

Alabama @ LSU - Alabama loses. Wins their remaining games and sees LSU lose to A&M in their final game. Alabama makes it to the SEC championship game and loses to UGA. UGA In.

Notre Dame @ Northwestern - Notre Dame. 12-0, they stay as the #2 Seed. Notre Dame In. 

Georgia @ Kentucky - Georgia to win and then win out. Georgia defeats Alabama in the SEC Conference Championship game. Georgia In.

Michigan wins out and comes in @ #4. 

1 Clemson v 4 Michigan

2 Notre Dame v 3 Georgia

Michigan defeats Clemson in an upset. 

Notre Dame defeats Georgia in a rematch from last year. 

Michigan completes the Revenge Tour of 2018 beating Notre Dame and taking home the National Championship.

Mongo

October 30th, 2018 at 9:47 PM ^

A 1-loss Bama gets in over a 1-loss Michigan, sorry but that is damn near certain.  Conference title games are a glorified possible tie-breaker and will mean nothing given UM's B1G title opponent will not likley be a ranked team.  That sucks, but probably true.

Mongo

October 30th, 2018 at 9:42 PM ^

That is a no brainer.  Need Bama to beat LSU soundly and ND over Northwestern in a close game (just in case Northwestern is the West division winner we play in the B1G title game).  

Yes, we want every other team that UM has defeated to win and every team that UM is going to play in the future to win. Strength of schedule comes from your opponents' records, plain and simple.

Ali G Bomaye

October 31st, 2018 at 9:26 AM ^

A 12-1 Michigan wouldn't make it over a 12-0 ND. An undefeated P5 team (yes, ND counts) will make it in no matter what. The question is whether a 12-1 Michigan would make it over an 11-1 ND, and despite our loss, I think we would.

That loss was in a close game, on the road, in the first week of the season, and if we win out, we'll have a much more impressive slate of wins than ND will. It's totally possible - maybe even likely - that at the end of the regular season, we'll be the only ranked team ND will have played.

Wolverine 73

October 30th, 2018 at 9:43 PM ^

Always root for OSU to lose.  Always root for ND to lose (adjustments allowed if either team is playing MSU and you hate them more).  Not worth worrying about the rest of it, too many games still to play.  If we win out, we are going to the playoff.  If we lose a game, we are not going to the playoff, so there really is only one thing to watch.

Mongo

October 30th, 2018 at 9:57 PM ^

That is my emotional reaction as well, but that shit means nothing to the CFP committee.  Need ND to win out.  Need OSU to beat everyone on the schedule except UM and rise in the rankings to #7.  Need Bama to blow the doors off of LSU and beat UGA in the title game.  Need UM to win out as B1G champ.  That is our path to the 4-team CFPs.  Other scenarios could screw our chances, even if we win out.

Yet another gauntlet, but all part of the Revenge Tour.  Win them all boys.  Go Blue !!!

Sideline

October 30th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^

ND does not need to win out. A loss @ Northwestern would essentially give us that three-way tie: 

ND beat Michigan 

Michigan beat Northwestern

Northwestern beat* Notre Dame

The Michigan-Notre Dame Head-to-Head doesn’t hold more weight than the Northwestern-Notre Dame Head-to-Head. 

 

 

*Assuming a loss to Northwestern. 

 

goblue16

October 30th, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^

I really wish ND gets left out at 11-1 and we get put in at 12-1. Join a conference you supremecist assholes!

Durham Blue

October 30th, 2018 at 9:55 PM ^

Notre Dame losing (and us winning out of course) makes our path to the CFP easier.

So does Alabama beating LSU, although I can't actively root for Bama because my wife and her family are LSU alums and fans.

Blue Durham

October 30th, 2018 at 10:03 PM ^

I guess I don't get a lot of the logic here. 

Or course we want Northwestern to beat Notre Dame.  Not only dose Michigan has a chance to be ranked ahead of an 8-1 Notre Dame team, but that ND team has a lot better chance to be a 10-2 Notre Dame team than a 9-0 Notre Dame team.

West Coast Struttin

October 30th, 2018 at 10:10 PM ^

I only root for Mich in & Osu out. 

If we get Osu fan refs in Columbus this year & get jobbed again - don't want snake Meyer lobbying his way in. Chaos is bad in that aspect Imo.

Mich wins out - they're in. 

 

West Coast Struttin

October 30th, 2018 at 10:14 PM ^

I'm a big Scott Frost fan this weekend & Mike Dantoni fan next weekend. 

And I want to see Psu pummeled this weekend like in '16.

cletus318

October 30th, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^

Obviously, any loss probably ends ND's chances, but the best thing that can happen for Michigan this weekend is for LSU to beat Alabama. That eliminates the possibility of the SEC having two teams finish at 12-1. Michigan at 12-1 won't get left out over an 11-1 team that didn't win its division, even if that team is Alabama.

TennesseeMaize

October 30th, 2018 at 11:00 PM ^

Bama to win big over LSU and Georgia in the SEC champ game. Need LSU and Georgia our of the way. 

Northwestern: don’t care about “good loss,” just need ND to lose late in the season. 

 

Also, need Oklahoma to slip up, so definitely rooting for WV or any of OK’s opponents. 

Clemson and Bama are already in the CFP, based on 1. ESPN’s continuous orgasm over Saban and Tua, and 2. Clemson has played no one and will never play anyone decent until the playoffs. (FYI: it’s a crime that Clemson’s ridiculous schedule is allowed to get any team into the playoffs. They might as well be a group of 5 team). 

We just need ND, LSU, and Georgia to give us some space. None of this matters if we don’t finish with wins in every game, though. 

gbdub

October 30th, 2018 at 11:01 PM ^

Bama going undefeated is probably best for Michigan, since it guarantees that any SEC non-champ will have at least two losses and be left out, and maybe opens up a scenario where M can afford a loss to PSU and still sneak into the CFP.

But which of the following SEC scenarios do we worry about most:

1) Bama beats LSU, but loses the SEC title game close to one loss Georgia. LSU wins out.

2) Bama loses to LSU then both teams win out 

I’m pretty positive 12-1, B1G champ Michigan hops 11-1 non-champ Bama. But if Bama is 12-1 with a win over a good LSU, there might be arguments that Bama should get another chance. That’s honestly the only way I see the SEC getting two teams in over any one loss P5 champ. I don’t think they actually would put Bama over 12-1 M in that scenario, but ess-ee-see man. I could definitely see them leaving out a one loss Oklahoma or ND in that scenario.

I actually kind of like Bama losing Saturday. Yeah, at that point they’d likely win out, but I think that’s the most likely way Bama gets left home from the CFP, and I’d much rather not have to face Bama in the CFP. 

mgoblue98

October 30th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^

The worst case scenario is Alabama losing to LSU.  An 11-1 Alabama team that doesn't play in the SEC championship game probably gets in.  The loser of the Georgia-Kentucky game is out.  If Michigan goes 12-1, and Alabama loses in the SEC championship game, Michigan gets in.

I would think we want Notre Dame to win out.  An 11-1 Notre Dame team that beat Michigan head to head is a scenario that I don't care to see.

We want OU to lose.

We want WSU to lose.

We want Ohio State to lose this week.

Synful

October 30th, 2018 at 11:14 PM ^

What I'd personally like to see:
 - LSU absolutely mangle Bama because they have an off-night and Tua throws like four picks including a pick-6.  Basically the wheels coming off their train as opposed to LSU influencing it.
 - NW taking out ND.  THWND.
 - Kentucky squeaking by Georgia in like four OTs with a controversial call deciding it.
 - Then the cherry on top...  Texas Tech remembers who they used to be and takes down Oklahoma.

Yeah, very tall order.  One can dream.  :)
(OSU/Neb...  the Huskers are doomed - the Buckeyes had two weeks to stew over that loss, never a good sign for the next opponent)

B1G_Fan

October 30th, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^

 Just pull for Michigan, nothing else matters. If Michigan wins out, no way they keep a 1 loss B1G champ out ( not to mention their only loss is to the current number 3).

 

 I do want to rant a little bit though. A few weeks back Oregon beat Washington, during the broadcast, one of the announcers says, the pac 12 is pretty much done as far as the CFP goes. The reason ( he presumed Oregon would win the Pac-12) was how soft Oregon's non-conference schedule was. I just wondered have they looked at Alabama's non-conference schedule... or alabama's schedule period? Have they looked at Clemson's schedule? Clemson has a shot to make the CFP without beating a single top 25 team at season's end. How can you rank UCF at 9 because of a soft schedule and close win but, rank Clemson 2nd with just as soft of a schedule and a close win?

 

BlueBuffalo

October 30th, 2018 at 11:31 PM ^

We want an undefeated Bama for sure. Dont want the committee to have to decide between 1-loss Bama and 1-loss Michigan if someone other than Bama wins the SEC Championship. I think we would deserve to get in in that scenario (assuming win out) but I dont want that in the committee's hands. 

JHumich

October 31st, 2018 at 12:01 AM ^

"Rooting Interest"?

Since you covered 1, 2, &3, which are basically the best answers to your question...

Can't ever go wrong rooting against ND or OSU (or MSU or PSU). If you even approach convincing yourself otherwise, you're just thinking too hard.

Other than that, always root for the underdog. It's generally the funnest rooting in sports. You don't feel devastated if they lose, and it's definitely much more thrilling when they do win, as opposed to when a favorite does.

This is sports. Don't over-complicate it. Have fun.

Beat Rutgerland

October 31st, 2018 at 1:42 AM ^

The nightmare scenario for the CFP is Clemson wins out, ND wins out, and LSU wins out, but that is just not very likely.

However, we definitely want OSU to lose. We can worry about the CFP if we actually manage to win out, for now it's been quite awhile since we won the Big Ten.

 

Carcajou

October 31st, 2018 at 5:54 AM ^

A lot of football to be played. For the long run, college football and Michigan will be strengthened when Alabama and Ohio State lose. So it is hard to root for them in almost any scenario.

Whatever happens as far as they are concerned, Michigan has to continue to get a lot better and more consistent offensively running the ball and becoming more dangerous in the passing game, and get more consistency out of field goal kicking as well to do well in the post season and call itself "elite" once more.

 

uminks

October 31st, 2018 at 8:20 AM ^

Bama to win, this week and win out.

ND loss, First game loss on the road to ND and we lost by 7. I twill free up one playoff spot.

OU to lose to OK st.

Michigan to win out and beat NU again in the B1G championship game, the team that beat ND.

 

Section 1.8

October 31st, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^

So you're suggesting that our hopes of The Citadel beating Alabama are not realistic...

 

Your cold, cruel rationality is admirable.  A question:  What are the chances that Bama, Clemson and ND all win out?  People, with their computers, do those calculations, right?  They compound all of the individual game chances together and come up with a percentage and usually that percentage is shockingly small.  Has anybody done that?

By the way; I would not be completely shocked by Northwestern-over-ND.  Nor would I be shocked if USC ended the year by beating ND at home in Los Angeles.

 

gbdub

October 31st, 2018 at 8:59 AM ^

Why is everyone so damn convinced that because 11-1 Bama jumped 11-2 OSU last year, 11-1 Bama would jump 12-1 Michigan this year? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. 

Only upside of Bama going undefeated is that it gives the SEC losers 2 losses each and 11-2 B1G champ might be enough to get in. Upside of Bama losing on Saturday is Bama might be out of the playoff.