Rooting interests this weekend based on CFP Ranking?
1. I know. Just win and it will work out.
2. However, it is fun to watch other games and have some vested interest in pulling for a certain team to win.
3. I know its too early to worry about this stuff. Once again, just looking for an excuse to be glued to CFB all weekend.
I have not broken down the landscape, so I was wondering if anyone knows who we should be pulling to win these games?
Bama at LSU - It seems like we might want Bama to kick out LSU ahead of us. But, if LSU wins could there be 2 SEC teams in the mix? Bama is most assuredly going to make it even if they don't win the SEC. (Same issue might arise even if Bama wins, but somehow losses to UGA in SEC title game)
ND at Northwestern - Once again, seems like we want NW to kick out a ND team ahead of us. But, we want ND to be a "good loss" for us and it might be better for us if they win out (and OU, LSU and others fall). Or does having another midwestern team hurt our chance before the CFP?
Other games - I assume we want OSU to win out up to The Game. But, do I really need to root for that? Of course, we want Kentucky to pull off theupset and hope Texas Tech has some fight in them....
Any insight? (Thanks in advance.)
October 31st, 2018 at 9:34 AM ^
It is a new committee this year but if Bama loses a close game to LSU and then murders everyone else on their schedule it is not crazy to think they end up with the benefit of the doubt. The committee has never said they want to take the 4 most deserving teams. They want the 4 best teams.
October 31st, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
You're not alone. I think it might be BPONE residuals lingering in people's brains.
People acting as if Alabama would be a lock without even winning its division are being irrational. It was very controversial to take an identically-postured Alabama last year over a TWO-LOSS TEAM. One that had been BLOWN OUT by a mediocre opponent IN NOVEMBER.
It is absolutely not a lock that Alabama would get in in a world where we win out and they fail to win their division. In fact, it is extremely unlikely. An Alabama loss at any time is a good thing, and not just because it's fun. It also gets us one step closer to Alabama dropping another game (like, say, SEC title game after LSU drops one to A&M?) and potentially being out of the hunt completely.
Similarly, anyone thinking we need Notre Dame to win out is also being irrational. We do not need our first-week, one-the-road-at-night loss to be to an undefeated team in order to get in. I have no idea where this line of thinking comes from. An undefeated ND team is eating a playoff spot. That is 100% true. Notre Dame dropping a game to anyone on the remainder of its schedule probably disqualifies it. That's a good thing for Michigan, and our loss to Notre Dame will still be a "good loss."
October 31st, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
Right. I think OSU was a holy lock for the CFP last year if they hadn't lost to Iowa. Maybe even if they had, but lost close. Picking Bama over them was controversial despite the second loss.
And 2017 OSU without the Iowa loss is exactly who 12-1 Michigan would be - one quality non-conf loss, undefeated since with a conference championship.
ND stays a "quality loss" unless they completely collapse. They aren't going to lose 3 games, and even 2 loss ND is probably a top 10 team end of year. We therefore want them to lose to open up a spot.
We want as few "guaranteed spots" ahead of us as possible. In my estimation, the only teams guaranteed to be ranked ahead of the theoretical 12-1 Michigan are:
1) Undefeated ND
2) ACC champ Clemson with < 2 losses
3) SEC champ with < 2 losses
Teams that would be a "tough call" with theoretical 12-1 Michigan:
1) 1 loss Big 12 champ
2) 1 loss ND
3) 1 loss Bama or Clemson if they lose their conference championship game
Teams that would probably be behind theoretical 12-1 Michigan:
1) 1 loss PAC12 champ WSU
2) 1 loss Bama that doesn't win the SEC West
Teams that would definitely be behind theoretical 12-1 Michigan:
Anybody with 2 losses
You want to root for teams in high categories to move down. That means suck it Bama, we want you to lose. You too ND, Clemson, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and WSU just to be safe.
Ideal scenario for championship weekend is Bama and Clemson both in, but with 1 loss already. That way a loss eliminates them and doesn't set up "tough call" scenario 3. This would also open up the possibility of Michigan making it in even with an extra loss, as long as they make and win the B1G championship.
November 1st, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
Ideal scenario for championship weekend is Bama and Clemson both in, but with 1 loss already. That way a loss eliminates them and doesn't set up "tough call" scenario 3. This would also open up the possibility of Michigan making it in even with an extra loss, as long as they make and win the B1G championship.
This is the correct take.
October 31st, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
Doe, I totally agree with you.
October 31st, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^
Thank you for a rational take. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading people talking about how it's somehow better if ND wins out, or how a 1-loss Bama team gets in regardless of anything else.
I mean just look at the damn standings. Undefeated ND #4, 1-loss Michigan #5. You generally never keep an opponent the same rank after a loss. If ND loses they will drop down in the rankings. They just will. That's how rankings are supposed to work.
October 31st, 2018 at 9:23 AM ^
For Bama at LSU, we absolutely want Bama to win, as odious as that is. You're right that Bama will almost certainly make it even if they have one loss. Therefore, we want them to knock LSU out. LSU would have a good chance of making it in over us if they finish with one loss, especially since they'd then have wins over Bama and likely a second win over Georgia in the SECCG. Two SEC teams in the playoffs would be bad news for us.
For ND at Northwestern, we want Northwestern to win. We should be rooting against ND every week. They'll be a quality loss for us no matter what, even if they finish with a loss or two, so it can only help us to have their playoff credentials hurt a little.
OSU's results don't matter from a playoff perspective. The Game is a playoff game for us no matter what. So feel free to root against OSU (I know I will).
Yes, it would be nice if Kentucky beat Georgia. But the winner of that game likely needs to play Bama or LSU in the SECCG. So I'm not too worried about that game.
And yes, we should be rooting against Oklahoma every week. Three of their final four games are lose-able: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia. If they win out, they'll also have to play a rematch with either Texas, Texas Tech, or WV in the Big 12 championship due to that conference's inane scheduling setup.
October 31st, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
Bama Win out. All others lose as many times as humanly possible. Its that easy.
bama
UM
probably clemson
probably ND
On deck- Oklahoma
October 31st, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
1. Michigan to win - and to win out.
2. the OSU to lose - and to lose out.
3. MSU to lose - and to lose out.
4. PSU to lose - and to lose out.
October 31st, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
GO FIGHTING PAT FITZGERALDS!!!
October 31st, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
Um... Beat Penn State?