Root against Oklahoma, leave nothing to chance
John U. Bacon tweeted during the Purdue-OSU game, that it would be better for Michigan if OSU won. The numbers may actually show this. According to Nate Silver, Michigan does not fully control its destiny into the playoffs, even if winning out:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
Leave nothing to chance, root for Oklahoma to lose a game!
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
Yeah, no. I don't care what Nate Silver says; a 12-1 Michigan would get in over a 12-1 OU.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^
As of now, there is a statistical way for OU to beat higher ranked opponents in their championship games. The committee might like that more. There is still a lot of chaos likely. After November 3, we will know more.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:41 PM ^
If UM wins out, they'll be in the playoff.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:41 PM ^
Ill take not being in the playoff if we Beat OSU and win the big ten championship game . I would rather this than get pounded by Alabama
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:41 PM ^
2x post
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^
Bama winning out, and OK and TX losing 1 more definitely helps.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
Man I dont see the worry over Oklahoma at all but if LSU runs the table I am terrified of them taking LSU and a one loss Alabama team, Clemson and Notre Dame WAY more than us getting hip-checked out by Oklahoma.
The committee would have to take LSU (they won the mighty SEC) and no way in HELL are they leaving beloved Alabama out. So now it's us versus Notre Dame (assume they win out - no way we can leap frog them) or Clemson (and if they win out no way we can leap from them).
Oklahoma can win out and it wont matter. LSU wins out and we're fucked.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
Alabama would have shit for quality wins though. They'd be out unless they took notre dame's spot.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
Alabama's QB hasn't taken a 4th quarter snap this year, that's how dominant they've been regardless of "quality wins". Alabama has appeared in the last three championships, winning two, and has yet to miss the playoff. Alabama has, without question, the most talent on their team annually.
One loss Alabama ain't getting left out.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
I'd agree with you if it were any other school but ours. Not to mention our loss would probably be the only one better than theirs in that scenario.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^
I like OU's chances to drop another game. They ain't playin defense down there PAAWWWLLL
21 to UCLA
27 to Iowa State
21 to Army
33 to Baylor
48 to Texas
27 to TCU
It's only gonna take one off night for Murray and they're gonna lose.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
Use the chain link icon and post the link text there. It works wonders.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
Also root against Notre Dame, but you already knew that.
We should also root against all non-Bama SEC teams. If we win out, the situation that is most likely to screw us out of a spot is if Bama loses a game (either to LSU or to the SEC East champion in the championship game) and a different SEC team wins the conference championship game. Given Bama's dominance so far this season, I'd guess that the committee would pick them AND the SEC champion (assuming they had no more than one loss) to make the playoffs over Michigan.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
Impossible for Michigan with Harbaugh and Patterson to not be in if we win out. This is when being a blue blood with a transfer sec quarterback and top coach matters.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
I believe they are listed that way because Oklahoma has a better chance of winning out because their remaining schedule is easier. It is not a prediction on who would be ranked higher if both teams won out.
But, yes, root against Oklahoma anyway.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:22 PM ^
That's not entirely it though. If you check the M wins out box, their model gives M only an 87% chance to make the playoff. I think it's probably a little higher than that, but the window is open (albeit would still be a very difficult decision for the committee) for two scenarios:
1) Winner of UGA/Florida wins the SEC over a 12-0 Bama and both teams finish ahead of M. This is more dangerous for M than if...
2) ...OU crushes all comers and wins out with redemption over Texas in the Big 12 title game. If they redeem their only loss, one that was extremely close, the committee could make an argument to put them ahead of M depending on how the eye test goes for both teams the remainder of the way. It would have to come by way of OU crushing teams and M getting fortunate though, because M's SoS and non-margin based metrics will be better (SoR).
This also assumes Clemson wins out. If they do they're in. If they lose, they drop below a one-loss M team. And theoretically, M could still be behind BOTH OU and two SEC teams, but a Clemson loss would help a lot. No real grey area for them given how poor their schedule is.
ND is an interesting case. Not sure if we want them to win out. Losing twice would be great, but if ND loses just once, it makes our loss to them look worse and if it's a close game might only drop them to the 4/5 range. Committee would have to decide that we should jump them despite having the same number of losses and the head-to-head loss. Might be better if they just win out to finish in the 2/3 range and leave the 3/4 spot open for us.
OSU's loss (along with NW's non-conf losses, Wisconsin losing to BYU,etc) did marginally hurt M and leave the door open for one of these scenarios. Still was worth it because M probably is still in and F OSU, but winning out is not a guarantee M will get in.
Long story short, rooting interests to ensure a one-loss conference champion M is in the playoff:
1) Winner of UGA/Florida loses again or Bama loses before the SEC title game.
2) OU loses again.
3) Clemson loses.
Not hard to root against, UGA, UF, Bama, OU and Clemson.
If any two of those happen, M would be in. If one or none happens, there would be reason to be nervous
October 23rd, 2018 at 7:01 PM ^
Yeah, Bama needs to win out. Bama losing just once would be bad for Michigan as I assume the committee will still take Bama no matter what.
ND losing once but not twice also isn't great for U of M. Ideally, both Bama and ND just win out and I think everything will be fine. I don't think OU will have a better resume regardless. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Texas loses a few times and makes that loss look worse.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
Root against the winner of UGA/Florida too. What might be worse than OU winning out would be UGA or Florida winning out.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:36 PM ^
Hard to see anyone picking Florida over Michigan based on historical head to head results.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
None of that will matter. Anything before this season doesn't matter, and no one will care about how bad we beat them last year. If Florida wins out, they're in because that includes a win over Bama.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
If Michigan wins out with 1 loss, they will be in the playoffs no matter what. They will be a top 4 team beating a 15 wisc, 24 MSU, 18 PSU and probably a 6th/7th/8th OSU. Two of those being on the road. Michigan travels great and brings in huge money and also the tv ratings soar for Michigan games.
go blue and just win.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^
As an Oklahoma alum,
I don't like this thread
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
Crap or get off the shitter.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
If Michigan can beat Penn State, you should really spend that night rooting for Alabama against LSU. If LSU wins and makes the SEC championship game, its almost for sure that 1 loss LSU and 1 loss Bama would both make the playoff. Along with undefeated Clemson and undefeated Notre Dame.
1 loss Oklahoma/Michigan/Ohio State would be left at home.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
Feels like there is some sunshine in this thread.
1. If Alabama loses they are still in, regardless of how bad the loss is. Alabama has been dominant this year, regardless of how you quantify their competition. One loss to LSU or in the SEC Championship game almost certainly results in two SEC schools getting in. Alabama needs to hold serve.
2. Clemson has recent history on their side. They've made it the past three years. While their strength of schedule is very weak, if they lose one close game, they could still stay ahead of Michigan.
3. If Notre Dame loses one close game, the playoff committee has some questions to answer, and unfortunately, the criteria for the committee seems to change every year based on nothing. Notre Dame brings just as much to the table as Michigan as far as prestige and fan base (and people who hate them). They beat Michigan head-to-head. So how much does the committee value head-to-head compared to when you lost? Lots of questions there.
4. Texas/OU both only have one loss. I really don't see the argument for Texas given the loss came the same week, and while the transitive property sucks for football, you have to see one team losing to a team the other blew out. Texas has also been wildly inconsistent, even more so than Michigan. OU lost to Texas, a good team. If they win out, they'll have a later loss, but recent playoff appearance plus a compelling player to watch is a real threat if Michigan looks sloppy down the stretch.
5. SEC Champ - The SEC champ is getting in. Whether that's Florida or Georgia (or Kentucky, hahaha) or LSU, they are getting in with one loss.
So no, Michigan does not control its own destiny to the playoffs. They do control their own destiny to the B1G. Just win, let what you can't control handle itself.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
Wrong - Michigan gets in if they win out. You are trying to think of worst case scenarios and rationalizing the path there.
The only thing you have to know is that we have the Michigan money cannon (which ironically includes all of the folks that hate us - and there are a lot) and there is close to a zero % probability that we are excluded regardless of how things play out. Nobody wants to see another boring Clemson vs. Oklahoma semi-final.
NCAA and ESPN can taste the money that would come from a Michigan vs. Alabama showdown (just think of the Saban vs. Harbaugh hawt takes on Pete Finebaum) or even a Michigan vs. Notre Dame rematch. Their mouths are watering as we type...
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
I would love to see Alabama lose once and be left out of the playoffs to teach them to have a non-conference schedule worth a lick.
October 23rd, 2018 at 6:48 PM ^
They almost got left out last year. OSU would have gotten in, but their Iowa loss was so bad and so recent that Alabama got in by default. There was nobody else left to pick.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
ND and Clemson need to lose too for good measure. They probably won't but they should
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^
I'm confused, OU isn't even the top of their conference.
LSU losing to Bama would be nice, as would ND losing. But if we win out we should be in no matter how you slice it.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^
If Alabama and LSU were to tie, where would it leave us?
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^
That would probably be great for M because it would almost certainly ensure that only one SEC team gets in because it would ensure that the SEC loser will have two non-wins.
Door is definitely open for two SEC teams to make it over a one-loss conf champ but it would require the winner of UGA/UF to beat a 12-0 Bama. That's the only way the SEC can get two teams in and they'd have a pretty decent argument for two in that scenario.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
No one really controls there own destiny in beauty pageant, and that's pretty much what the playoffs are. The B1G champ has been left out 2 yrs in a row, so I doubt they do it again if its Michigan or OSU with 1 loss. Brand does matter.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
I understand the argument put forth there, but I think it greatly overrates how people will view the other conferences if, say, OU and UM win out. OU has potentially one more ranked team on their schedule (and who knows about WVU), then a likely rematch with Texas. Whomever comes out of the West will be ranked for the B1G, and barring complete implosions both OSU and PSU should finish the year ranked. There's a non-zero chance that OU won't have a win against a ranked team by selection day, and that absolutely needs to be taken into account no matter how badly they beat the tar out of some bad defenses.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
root against ND too, right?
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
That's the surest bet...better than rooting against OK-well, as good as.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
If Michigan wins out then I think we are definitely in the CFP. Objectively speaking, we'll be a conference champion whose only loss is to current top 4 ND, on the road in the first game. Subjectively speaking, Oklahoma has already played in the CFP and lost. Michigan has not so it's a new team in the CFP and this new team just happens to be very popular, arguably more popular than Oklahoma. So viewership will be better. I really don't the committee would turn us down in favor of Oklahoma.
Win out and we're in.
October 23rd, 2018 at 6:50 PM ^
Yes, at the end of the day, the committee is still a political animal. They will want to be seen as "spreading the wealth".
They are dying to get fresh teams like ND and Michigan in. They will look for any excuse to do so.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^
If you are going to root for any team to lose, why not Clemson? With their crap schedule they would move to the back of the line with one loss. Plus nobody really wants to see them play Alabama again.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
oklahoma has one team left on its schedule in the top 25 (wvu), and even assuming they win that will be their only top 25 win. there’s no fucking way they get in over us if we run the table, absolutely none.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^
That's a solid point. Unless someone in the Big12 backs into the bottom of the top 25 (like Texas Tech), then OU's best win would be WVU twice presumably (regular season finale, and then B12TG)
Michigan would have Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, and OSU plus a Big Ten title game against Wisconsin or Iowa presumably. Our resume would be far superior to OU's
October 23rd, 2018 at 7:59 PM ^
MSU will not look like a good win at the end of the year. I'm guessing MSU finishes with 5 losses.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^
Michigan wins out they're in, period. No exceptions.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
Oklahoma's SOS is ass. They already lost to Texas. If they were picked over us that would be asinine. Texas has the edge over them.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
Personally prefer Rose Bowl as Big Ten Champions.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^
UofM is in the top 4/six teams of most every set of fancy stats. We are not on the short list because our name is MICHIGAN (for once.).
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:12 PM ^
Win the B1G with one loss to an undefeated ND... IN.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^
I can never root for OSU. Loved that Purdue game. Gonna sit back and watch them steamroll Sparty this weekend!
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
If the Playoff Committee has us at 5 we’ll be fine if we win out. I’d even posit that Alabama would drop below us if they lost to LSU eventually assuming we win out. Now, I think we want Iowa and potentially OSU to go undefeated prior to us playing/potentially playing them to give us a nice ending to the season but through natural attrition there will be room for us as long as we’re 5.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:17 PM ^
#1 We have 4, hopefully 5 games left to win, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.
#2. I dont care about the playoffs as long as WE FUCKING BEAT OHIO STATE