Root against Oklahoma, leave nothing to chance
John U. Bacon tweeted during the Purdue-OSU game, that it would be better for Michigan if OSU won. The numbers may actually show this. According to Nate Silver, Michigan does not fully control its destiny into the playoffs, even if winning out:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
Leave nothing to chance, root for Oklahoma to lose a game!
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
Not sure option 2 is a possibility honestly. If Michigan and Oklahoma both win out, Michigan will make the playoff.
It would take Oklahoma winning every game by like 30+ and Michigan would have to really struggle vs Rutgers and Indiana. Still don't think it would sway things enough honestly. A potential 12 game win streak including Big Ten title is unreal.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
Rutger*
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
I'd probably take option 2, and be pissed we got left out of the playoff.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^
option 1 and it isn't close. we want to be in the playoff. recruits want to see us in the playoff. writes and those who drive poll hype (which matters in recruiting as well) would respond more favorably if we're in the playoff.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:44 PM ^
MSU disagrees with you. I'm not sure they reaped any benefits from being embarrassed by Alabama in the playoffs. If it's a guaranteed L in the first playoff game vs a guaranteed W in the Rose Bowl, I'll take the W. We could claim to be as good as the NC without any evidence proving us wrong. We could go full UCF and declare ourselves national champions. We'd have a full offseason of debate and coverage discussing M compared to the playoff teams. We'd have the disrepekt angle going for us in 2019. Getting blasted by Alabama or Clemson doesn't seem to offer much upside.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^
Better to say you've been there and lost instead of never going.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^
we aren't fucking MSU. Don't compare us to them.
October 23rd, 2018 at 8:56 PM ^
F this take. You want the CFP shot.
We aren't Staee.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
Option 1. How anyone could prefer a scenario where we don't have a shot for a national title is beyond me.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
Most years this is correct, but Bama is the looming storm cloud that makes many believe a NC is not possible.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:03 PM ^
We will see how invincible Bama is on November 3rd when they play at LSU. That place is going to be bonkers. I would not be surprised if LSU wins.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^
That brings up another point though. Do we really want LSU beating Alabama? Especially if it's a last play type of thing? A 1 loss Bama jumps UM into the CFP a helluva lot easier than a 1 loss Oklahoma.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
we definitely do NOT want Alabama to lose to either Georgia or LSU. A one loss Alabama team and a one loss SEC champ would both definitely get in. If we're going to win out and miss the playoff, that scenario is more likely to be the cause than anything involving Oklahoma.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
A 1 loss Alabama that is not SEC champs is NOT getting in over a 1 loss Michigan. Or for that matter probably not over a 1 loss Oklahoma. Maybe not even over 1 loss Wazzu.
The only reason Alabama got in over 2 loss conference champs last year is that USC and OSU had been blown out, and relatively recently at that.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^
11-1 Alabama wouldn't jump a 12-1 conference champion. They jumped in last year because OSU had two losses against Oklahoma, who made it in, and to Iowa by 31 points. What that would do, though, is guarantee Michigan doesn't play Bama, and possibly avoid Clemson's defense by putting us in a 2 vs. 3 matchup with either ND, LSU, or Oklahoma.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
Option 1 included a loss so there is no chance at a championship. It's not whether you'd opt out of the playoffs for the Rose Bowl. It's 13-1 vs 12-2. I'll take the Rose Bowl W over a CFP L. But, without knowing the outcome of those games, everyone would choose to be included in the CFP.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^
Option 1: Get over the hump of getting to the playoffs and let's see where we stand as a program.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^
This is silly. Of course we would rather play in the playoff, win or lose. There is no guarantee we win if we end up in the Rose Bowl anyway.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^
Rose bowl is not what it used to be. We need to stop holding the Rose bowl as our end goal, that time has passed. We should strive to aim for the championship not some bowl game that means nothing to the younger generation
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
Just win all the remaining games and don’t worry about what anyone else does. If we do that, we are in. If we lose even one, we are out.
October 23rd, 2018 at 8:59 PM ^
This...
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
OU @West Virginia in the season final best chance.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
Root against Oklahoma.
Root for UGA cuz they have a tougher schedule the rest of the way than Florida, who will likely win the rest of their games.
Root for Bama against LSU, cuz it helps prevent 2 SEC teams in the CFP.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
I disagree, only because I feel UGA could beat Bama in the SEC title game and then we would have a 12-1 Bama and a 12-1 UGA to worry about. Florida would get hamblasted by Bama, and would leave us with only Bama to worry about from the SEC. All of this assumes Bama beats LSU, of course.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
This makes sense. I can get onboard with this logic!
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^
Just for the fun of it, can I root for Alabama to lose every game for the next decade?
I am especially rooting for Alabama to lose their big November, 2020 matchup with the University of Tennessee-Martin.
(I saw "UT-Martin" on Alabama's schedule and thought, "I've never heard of University of Texas at Martin, but oh well they have a lot of decent football schools in Texas...")
Good luck to the Skyhawks.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
I always* like imagining that UT-Martin was founded by former Vols quarterback Tee Martin.
*Always = one time every 1-2 years where I’m reminded that UT-Martin exists.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:08 PM ^
Actually, it was founded in his honor.
You! Tee Martin! You won the National Championship that Peyton couldn't. And you beat Florida. A statue's not good enough for you. Have a school!
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
Strength of schedule favors UM. We will be fine if we win out. No chance the committee misses an opportunity to include Michigan in the playoffs for the first time if they go 12-1 including a Big Ten championship, with the only loss coming from a top 10 team on the road.
Not to mention a 12 game win streak if it plays out that way.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
I get what the stats say, but if ND remains undefeated, Michigan will always have the "better" loss. And will have wins over Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State, and potentially Purdue (or Wisconsin again) in the B1G Championship game.
Oklahoma will have wins over... TCU? And West Virginia.
I like Michigans chances in that scenario.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^
Notre Dame is going to get beat by Northwestern in Evanston or Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. Maybe both.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^
ND plays Syracuse in Yankee Stadium.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^
I listened to Valenti yesterday, and I hate to say it, but I agree with his take. Paraphrasing, it went something like: "Forget everything else. There is no way that a one-loss UM team that wins the B1G gets left out of the playoffs. When all is said and done, this is about money, and UM in the playoff means huge ratings."
I think that is right, Nate Silver and anyone else be damned...
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
Valenti is setting up the "they only got in because of money" arguement.
There's no way a 1-loss UM team that wins the B1G gets left out because there's no way ANY 1-loss team that wins the B1G gets left out.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
Nah. As much of a gasbag as the guy is, he is giving UM props for their team this year, even going so far as to praise Harbaugh yesterday and to basically take a "neutral" stance on the pre-game antics stuff. He was saying this in the context of us deserving to be in if we win out, but also, for the above reason, no way we get left out even if it's a close call for the #4 spot. And let's face it, it may sound cynical, but he's right. The CFP is 99% about money, and we would draw far more $$$ than almost any team. And I would take it; it's the same reason OSU jumped TCU in 2014 and got in...
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^
Yeah I listened as well. Basically said if Michigan wins out and doesn't get into the playoff there will be a FBI investigation.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^
According to the calculator, ND losing actually helps us significantly more than any other team losing. We go from 87% to 97% if we win out and they lose a game. OU losing only increases us to 91%.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^
Hoping for Notre Dame to lose is a program I can get with. Count me in.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
I'm not very confident that a 12-1 Michigan team would get in over an 11-1 ND team that beat us. It's definitely a possibility--we will have played multiple top teams, and the committee seems to put significant value on conference championships. Plus, in 2016 we destroyed Penn State and they were still one spot above us in the CFP, so it's definitely a possibility. But I don't think I'd feel all that confident.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:37 PM ^
That's not necessarily correct though.
The calculator only allows you to simulate a loss in the next game. And it gives ND a 3% chance of losing to Navy. So yeah, if they lose to Navy, they'll be done. That's a bad enough loss that they'd move behind us for sure.
But if they lose at say, USC, it's not nearly as certain that they'll fall behind us, given the head-to-head result.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
If we beat OSU on the road, that will be better than any road win Oklahoma would have. That would also be on top of beating ranked Wisconsin and PSU (I doubt MSU will ever be ranked in the CFP this season). The only loss that really could hurt us is ND losing a game, but I think even we could overcome that.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
I'm guessing ND drops a game between now and the end of the season. Northwestern or Florida State is my hope.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
Iowa winning out and Wisconsin dropping another game is also desirable since 11-1 Iowa would be a top 10 opponent in the championship game.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
It's very important that everyone root against Oklahoma because if you do not, then they'll win.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
F that.
We win out, we are in. But that’s putting the cart way before the horse.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
The Sooners 'winning out' means that they will have beaten West Virginia. And whoever they play in the 1 versus 2 Big12 Championship game. Which will almost certainly be a rematch of somebody they played and beat already. (Or Texas, their narrow loss.)
Obviously, Michigan winning out means that we will have beaten Penn State, Ohio State in Columbus, and possibly a ranked Iowa.
Objectively, I'd have a very hard time understanding how at that point Michigan doesn't get the nod. If Notre Dame remains unbeaten, Michigan's one loss is superior to Oklahoma's one loss. If Notre Dame loses, then the Michigan-Oklahoma paper/ranking battle might be moot anyway.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^
How the heck is there a 1 in 6 chance we don't make the playoffs if we win out? We would have road wins over OSU and MSU, as well as home wins against UW and PSU. And our only loss would be to the #2 team. Doesn't make sense to me. Leaving out a conference champ with that resume would be inexcusable.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^
OU will lose to WVU anyways. Book it
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^
So OSU winning out gets them in regardless of what OU does, but OU gets in over a winning out UM team? Can't quite follow that logic.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
i was puzzled by this too. it doesn't make sense that we are ahead of OU in AP/ELO/FPI and have the more difficult schedule the rest of the way, that if both programs win out OU gets in ahead of Michigan.