Root against Oklahoma, leave nothing to chance

Submitted by VictorValiant on October 23rd, 2018 at 2:17 PM

John U. Bacon tweeted during the Purdue-OSU game, that it would be better for Michigan if OSU won. The numbers may actually show this. According to Nate Silver, Michigan does not fully control its destiny into the playoffs, even if winning out:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/

Leave nothing to chance, root for Oklahoma to lose a game!

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jgoodman

October 23rd, 2018 at 5:54 PM ^

That site thinks Ohio has a 94% chance of making the playoff if they win out, but we only have a 87% chance.  That's ridiculous.  We lost a close game against another likely playoff team.  Ohio lost by 29 to three-loss Purdue. Their strongest win against an opponent outside the Big Ten East is 3-4 TCU.  Ours is 5-2 Wisconsin.  Any model that thinks Ohio State has a better chance of making the playoff than us is wrong.  They have a worse loss than us and worse wins.

 

This is just further proof that 538 isn't actually any good at statistics.  

Joined: 10/09/2018

MGoPoints: 87

Goblue228

October 23rd, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^

Personally I'm hoping for a Clemson loss and Alabama, ND, Michigan, Oklahoma to win out. Clemson would probably get bumped below OU so you get those 4 in playoffs in that order.  Sets up a 2.ND vs 3.UM rematch in the first round and 1.Bama vs. 4. OU. 

Joined: 10/18/2015

MGoPoints: 185

ChalmersE

October 23rd, 2018 at 6:17 PM ^

  Unless I missed it, no one has mentioned that OU needed an OT to beat Army. That’s the Army team that lost convincingly to Duke; needed two overtimes to beat (Not that) Miami; and barely beat the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors,

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5196

M-Dog

October 23rd, 2018 at 6:57 PM ^

If ND wins out and we win out, we are in.

The committee has a fetish for "good losses".  The ND loss is a very "good loss" - loss to an undefeated team, on the road, at night, first game of the year, when everybody else was scheduling cupcakes.

The committee will reward that.

OU's loss is only OK-ish - to Texas in a neutral site game.  Texas will most likely have 2 losses by the end of the year, vs. an undefeated ND.

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

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Solecismic

October 23rd, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^

If there's a playoff and Michigan is 12-1 with this schedule and isn't invited... Honestly, that's more an indictment of the system than something I could find myself caring about.

Joined: 11/27/2016

MGoPoints: 7580

s1105615

October 23rd, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^

I’m sorry, but beating MSU and OSU in the same season en route to a B1G Championship is more than enough for me.  A CFP appearance/championship would only be gravy.

Joined: 03/01/2014

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