Reasonsf for Optimism - OSU Game
First, Indiana is this weekend, but the game doesn't hold much appeal in light of the B10 Race. As with many of us, I have a hard time not thinking ahead to OSU.
There are so many reasons we might expect to lose the OSU game. I thought it might be easier to focus on the reasons we might win:
- The Game is at home.
- OSU has not played anyone decent on the road this year. In fact, their schedule is pretty crazy. The only two schools anywhere near their talent level (and still a solid rung or two below) in Wisconsin and MSU hung with them into the 3rd quarter. Both were at home.
- Don Brown has been staying up nights. The mesh routes will not be there.
- Aside from Wisco, which was an early road game in our potato growing period, Michigan has performed similar to OSU against common foes. Michigan's defense has performed about the same or better than the OSU defense against MSU, Rutgers and MD. On offense, Michigan had similar yards per play in 2 of the 3 games. Overall, the transitive property does not indicate OSU as much of a favorite at all.
- The above, and the advanced metrics, do not fully tell the story of the seeming emergence of the offense through the course of the season.
- OSU will be coming off a "big game" atmosphere. It is always hard to maintain intensity over longer stretches of "big games."
- This is the title game for Michigan this year.
Of course, BPONE and all that. But, this game doesn't look as "scary" as it did a month or two ago.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:59 PM ^
Hope to see a ref give a Wolverine a butt pat...then I'm hopeful. All refs at this game should be Michigan natives!
November 21st, 2019 at 1:01 PM ^
I just don't see how our d-line will stop Fields AND Dobbins. It feels like they can keep it on the ground for 80% of this game and we won't be able to stop them at all. Would love to be wrong, but this is arguably a better rushing team than Wisconsin and I don't think we've taken THAT much of a step forward since that game
November 21st, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^
Agreed. We do have a very good defense. But not great enough to contain both Fields and Dobbins.
If we can hold them to 30 points, I'd consider that a good defensive outing. It's up to the offense to score more than 30. And I think we can do that if we gameplan like we did for MSU. We won't score 44. But maybe between 31 and 35, best case.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
Dobbins will absolutely shred us. We will have to score 40 points to win. Problem is, we won't be able to score 30 with that defense. 42-20 OSU.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
Only Navy, Air Force, and Army average more YPG on the ground than OSU. Common offensive theme with those three teams.
Like you, I don't see how our d-line stops a team that is rushing for 287.4 YPG and has NFL caliber WRs all over the field.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:02 PM ^
I am not sure how many fans share this optimism. My dad was offered free tickets to the Game.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
Every year I allow myself to be convinced if a few things go our way that we can beat them. Seems like those "few things going our way" rarely happen in this game for what seems like ages.
I'm protecting my sanity remaining skeptical until it's a game in the 4th, and then just MAYBE I let myself start to believe hoping not to get dong punched again.
Man I miss Cooper!!!
November 21st, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^
The few things went your way at the end of the first half last year, they just ended up meaning nothing in the grand scheme.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
We are all hopeful but there is no denying the fact that OSU is excellent this year across as a total team. Especially on defense. Even their passing defense is ranked #1. I can't stand them but I believe only Clemson has the ability to beat them and they will have to play perfect to do so.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^
South Carolina fan. Checks out.
I would say LSU, Bama and Clemson have a pretty good shot to beat them. In that order. Each would either be favored or coin toss.
As for your comment that "only Clemson has the ABILITY to beat them" I don't know where to begin. OSU isn't even ranked number 1 right now. Obviously any top 10 team has the ability to beat them. If you are talking about the top 3, they could do it without "playing perfectly" as you say.
OSU is a really good team this year. We see teams like them lose every year. And, they are finally playing two teams with similar talent. Their schedule has been mostly soft and home games this year. What test have they passed so far that makes them a nearly untouchable team?
November 21st, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
Are you talking about OSU? Or Bama? Or Clemson?
November 21st, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
Yeah, they may have the #1 rated passing defense but they are also playing a lot of teams that are forced into more obvious passing situations. It’s easier to defend what you know is coming.
I’m not saying they have a bad passing defense - they are very good. But I wouldn’t be surprised if their numbers are inflated somewhat based on who they have played and how far they have been ahead.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:16 PM ^
Not scary to me at all... this is setting up perfectly... nobody expects us to win.... and I think we do, just like 1969.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
Great post, and don't forget we put up 44 on MSU so that means we will beat OSU by 10? Seriously, I think you are making many valid points. Some day the curse will end, why not this year when OSU is thought of as a Death Star and Michigan has underachieved. Just makes sense...
November 21st, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
My one hope is that Justin Field is more JT Barrett than he is Dwayne Haskins and Don did pretty well vs the JT Barrett OSUs
My fear is that our DTs get put on skates and OSUs run game just 2015's us to death
November 21st, 2019 at 1:25 PM ^
I imagine Brown will try to make Fields beat us with his arm like he did with Barrett. He's been very good at stuffing running QBs. We'll see if Day can adjust or if Fields can hit tight windows on the road against the most talented team they've played this year.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
UM will be the best team OSU has faced this year. PSU will be the most talented.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:57 PM ^
There is no comparison between JT Barrett and Justin Fields. May as well have played different positions.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:29 PM ^
Hoping that Penn State...
BEATS THEM TWICE!!!
If the above happens it could be pivotal in the course of the Buckeye nation.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
4 more years.
That is going to be Harbaugh's motto after we win next saturday. finish the season with 11 wins and he gets his contract extension.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
The Indiana-to-OSU observation probably has more to do with Kevin Wilson than Day.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^
I do think we need to appreciate what Harbaugh has done with this program. OSU has had some their best teams the past few years (at least in my lifetime) and have overshadowed UM coming out of their darkest times. Odds are we do not win the game this year, but there is plenty to be excited about.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:54 PM ^
1. True, the game is in Ann Arbor, where Shea has never lost. And other than that Fickell blip on the radar, OSU has not lost since there since 2003. Something has to give.
2. True, OSU's biggest opponents this year have been at home. Yes, the Wisconsin game was still close entering the 3rd quarter because they got their only score on a short field after a blocked punt; otherwise: goose egg. The MSU take I'll need to call you out on...they did not hang with them into the 3rd quarter...they had a good 1st Q and then a 28-point 2nd Q blew the game wide open.
3. I'm sure he has, and, true, the mesh routes will not be there. Likewise, Day has been staying up all nights and something else will be there.
4. True, in Michigan's recent games their defense has played against those three opponents very similarly to how OSU's defense played against them. I guess that means this will be a pick-em.
5. Yes, Michigan's offense has progressed. I expect their best performance of the season on Nov 30. I expect Michigan's best performance of every season to be The Game.
6.True, in 2017 OSU had a big letdown after a serious come-from-behind win in a big game vs. PSU. The following week OSU went to Kinnick...you know the punchline. In 2018 OSU & PSU had another "big game" atmosphere in which OSU came from behind to win...they again came out sluggish the following week against Nebraska, continued the sluggish play against Minniesoda, and then went on the road to Purdue...you know that punchline too. The point is that OSU's two awful debacles in the past two seasons came on the first road game following a big win against PSU. In 2019, OSU & PSU are playing the East Division championship game. I suppose OSU will win and then lose their next road game. Wha-oh!
7. The Game has been the title game for Michigan every year for the past ...however many years?
November 21st, 2019 at 2:06 PM ^
I know history does not dictate future events but I cannot honestly believe that Michigan can beat OSU until the clock shows all zeros after the 4th quarter, and Michigan has more points. I have no effect on the game, which is good since I'm bringing negative energy, but this just seems like another year where I'm disappointed wondering when this pain, misery, and losing to OSU will stop.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
Regarding points numbered:
2. You are right about MSU. That happened at the end of the second quarter, not the start of the third. Still weird how the MSU team appeared to have performed better at OSU vs. at UM though. Also on this point, this reminds me of last year when UM had WIsco and PSU at home and whipped both. Makes it look good when your toughest conference games are at home.
3. I am not sure that Day has done that. Maybe he has, but as HC he spends a lot more time on other things than he did last year (i.e., head of state type things).
7. The Game is usually a tilte game for BOTH teams. I feel like the division championship hangs in the balance for one of the teams almost every year. This year would be the exception.... for both teams.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
I admire your willingness to consider the nearly-impossible, Chuck.
For Michigan to win this, they’ll have to play out of their minds for the entire 60 minutes, and OSU will have to have a bad day.
Sure, there’s a chance that could happen. But OSU’s athletes are very, very impressive, the coaching is impressive, the record is impressive, in short, it’s gonna take a near-miracle. I wouldn’t lose any sleep if I were you.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
Depends on which playcaller shows up. The one who eviscerated MSU by throwing the ball around, we have a chance. The one who slowed the game down against Army and begged them to beat us, not so much.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
Same play caller from both games, but a different team. The team has improved significantly.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
I know its the same playcaller, that's why which one shows up is important. No matter how much the team has improved we're not going to beat anOSU with three yards and a cloud of dust, as evidenced by Army almost beating us when we tried to do that.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
It can be argued that because M couldn’t execute the fancy speed in space stuff, Gattis turtled because he knew they could still win that game due to their superior talent and athleticism.
With M finally executing the offense we have been promised, I see no reason why we would go super conservative. We can’t out-athlete or out-talent OSU. It would make zero sense to go “3 yards and a cloud of dust” against OSU. Zero sense. I expect us to aggressively go after them and take chances. We aren’t going to win this game playing cautiously against a more talented team. I think the playcaller is going to use all of the tools he has available. We just have more tools available now than vs Army.
November 21st, 2019 at 7:15 PM ^
There is nothing fancy about bubble screens, slants, and hitches. Nor throwing a fade to Nico. The downfield pass in not magic. It made zero sense to go three yards and a cloud of dust against Army too but we did it anyways and we've turtled multiple other times when it made no sense.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
While I like or chances (punchers or other), I do feel I should address the 'transitive properties' a bit. Michigan's offensive effort are almost exclusively with starters, where the school in ohio has a very healthy dose of backup effort within those stats. I think if you were to examine (and I say 'you' because I am not going to tug at that thread) the stats for the first three quarters of related opponents, I think the differential might be a little more representative of current rankings.
Regardless, Go Blue - beat the bucknuts...after the hosers!
November 21st, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
Your post has my mind spinning. How would you assume that is a thing ... or that it matters?
The whole premise seems to be that UM keeps its starters in a game for a while longer after the opposing team pulls its starters, right? Otherwise, starters vs. starters shouldn't help pad stats.
Why would you assume that?
Isn't OSU the team that took a timeout right before half to try to put up another 7 points on NW? and they had an onside kick against MD despite being up by a few scores? They hardly seem like a team who "lets up" on a team late in a game.
Hans't Justin Fields played just about the same number of snaps as Patterson this year (with Patterson probably playing slightly more snaps in light of the early season tight games in which both teams still had 1st team out there... which are not part of our common opponents)?
Hasn't Dobbins had about the same number of snaps as Michigan's top two RBs (Charbonnet and Haskins) combined?
Wouldn't the teams OSU is facing also pull their starters about the same time as OSU?
There is no reason to think UM keeps its starters in football games longer AFTER backups for the other team come in. (I guess you could day that Shea threw a TD to a third stringer late in the MSU game... but we all know that was an anomaly... and I doubt Dantonio puled his starters early in that game.)
IN FACT, I would say that the propensity for OSU to be aggressive about adding points, combined with the fact that their starting QB and starting RB have played just about the same number of snaps as ours DESPITE blowing teams out..... actually indicates the OPPOSITE could be true and that OSU may be padding its stats by keeping its 1st team in longer than a team (like UM) would do.
My head is still spinning though.
November 21st, 2019 at 9:00 PM ^
Your post has my mind spinning. How would you assume that is a thing ... or that it matters?
I have not watched all of Mich's games this year, but I have seen quite a few. If forced to wager on it, it'd be an easy pick for me that Michigan's starting QB has played a larger percentage of the team's total snaps than Fields has for OSU.
The whole premise seems to be that UM keeps its starters in a game for a while longer after the opposing team pulls its starters, right? Otherwise, starters vs. starters shouldn't help pad stats.
Why would you assume that?
I didn't read it that way. The poster stated: "Michigan's offensive effort are almost exclusively with starters, where the school in ohio has a very healthy dose of backup effort within those stats."
I read that as Mich starters vs. Opponent starters is likely more snaps than OSU starters vs. Opponent starters. Not that Mich is keeping its starters in when the opponent puts backups in, but rather OSU has backups in while opponents have starters in. (OSU has given up a fair amount of pts to both Maryland and Rutgers with 2nd and 3rd string defense on the field - OSU literally emptied the bench. 71 of 74 OSU players that traveled to Rutgers played)
It's not just about padding stats against somebody's second string. It's about opportunity. If two quarterbacks in the same conference have similar rate stats the one with 800 snaps will likely have accrued more completions, yards and touchdowns than the QB with 600 snaps.
The OSU vs MSU game is the only game in which one (or more) of tOSU's backup QBs hasn't got a snap. It's hard to miss Fields on the sidelines. Backup QBs have 175 snaps in 10 games.
Isn't OSU the team that took a timeout right before half to try to put up another 7 points on NW? and they had an onside kick against MD despite being up by a few scores? They hardly seem like a team who "lets up" on a team late in a game.
First half. Day has been using these blowouts to get the 2nd and 3rd groups snaps. As mentioned earlier, 71 of the 74 players that traveled to Rutgers played in the game.
Hans't Justin Fields played just about the same number of snaps as Patterson this year (with Patterson probably playing slightly more snaps in light of the early season tight games in which both teams still had 1st team out there... which are not part of our common opponents)?
How many snaps has Paterson played? Fields has 600. I would expect Fields to have more snaps per minute as the offense has been efficient and the defense gets off the field.
Hasn't Dobbins had about the same number of snaps as Michigan's top two RBs (Charbonnet and Haskins) combined?
Dobbins has 455 snaps, MT III has 219 - so 674. Dobbins is clearly the starter here. I don't see this as a shared load situation. Dobbins is the clear #1. That said, MT III has been impressive and in the last few weeks has been getting carriers earlier and earlier in the game.
Wouldn't the teams OSU is facing also pull their starters about the same time as OSU?
Not from what I have observed. It appears to me that the opposing teams have been using those snaps to get game experience.
There is no reason to think UM keeps its starters in football games longer AFTER backups for the other team come in. (I guess you could day that Shea threw a TD to a third stringer late in the MSU game... but we all know that was an anomaly... and I doubt Dantonio puled his starters early in that game.)
I don't think OSU starters have seen backups this year. It stands to reason that he closer the game the more apt both sides are to play their starters longer/exclusively.
IN FACT, I would say that the propensity for OSU to be aggressive about adding points, combined with the fact that their starting QB and starting RB have played just about the same number of snaps as ours DESPITE blowing teams out..... actually indicates the OPPOSITE could be true and that OSU may be padding its stats by keeping its 1st team in longer than a team (like UM) would do.
What makes you think the QB and RB positions have played the same number of snaps? Either way I'd think the percentage of overall snaps would be a more telling comparison.
Fields 600/785 = .764
Dobbins 455/744 = .611
No snark here - I would honestly find it interesting if you/the board has a source to find comparable snap stats for Michigan. Snap counts for OSU found here: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2019/11/109098/snap-counts-71-ohio-state-players-see-game-action-in-buckeyes-56-21-win-at-rutgers
November 22nd, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
Dobbins has played so many snaps that Master Teague, his backup, has almost 800 yards rushing this year......
November 21st, 2019 at 2:05 PM ^
If Penn State had been a win I would be more optimistic. I think OSU rolls PSU this weekend.
November 21st, 2019 at 5:29 PM ^
No joke, right now I'm thinking OSU wins vs PSU by something like 49-9. I truly think it'll be an absolute kicking.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
I mean, there's always a chance, after all UNC nearly beat Clemson earlier this year and South Carolina knocked off Georgia. Those were games with significantly bigger talent disparities.
If these two teams line up and play 10 times I think OSU wins 7 or 8 of them. Heart wants a Michigan win, but I think this one turns out something like 45-24 bad guys with Chase Young playing himself into a trip to NY for the Heisman presentation.
November 22nd, 2019 at 1:23 AM ^
Now will they provide him a ticket, or will he have to resort to a "loan" from a "family friend?"
November 21st, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
November 21st, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
I really feel this game at Indiana will be a big tell on how ready we really are for OSU.
If we can win this one easily I will feel very good for our chances of holding our own in "The Game" and have an upset. We need to hold Indiana to less than 17 and our offense needs to score more than 30.
We need a strong outing to continue our momentum.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
Yeah, Ohio State by 20.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
Anything can happen, I guess. However, based on the respective performances of the two teams this year, we have no reason to believe that we can beat OSU next Saturday.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
This post is not going to age well.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^
I personally like the "potato growing period" excuse. I'm going to use that one at work.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:39 PM ^
I'll have more optimism if PSU can make it a game with OSU this weekend. At least show that they are mortal.
November 21st, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^
We need to make no unforced errors. Conversely, for the first time in a long time, OSU needs to make some mistakes to help us. I can’t remember a recent game against us where they had problems with penalties and turnovers. Time to regress to the mean.
November 21st, 2019 at 4:42 PM ^
We can be a realist and believe this team has a real ability to take this game into the 4th where anything can happen. They are peaking in key groups on both sides of the ball. We are healthy, hungry and at home. This team has been tested and is due. I like this year. Going to be a great game and all of us have every reason to hold our head up about the game scheming the last half of this year.
No matter what the odds, there is a reason why we play the game.
November 21st, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^
OSU defense was missing a couple key starters for Maryland and Rutgers. Rested starters for most if not all of the second half in both Maryland and Rutgers games. First team offense scored 2 TDs in third quarter with Shea running a TD in with 2:35 left in the 3rd vs Rutgers. Similar vs Maryland Michigan first time offense scored with 1:31 left in 3rd quarter. Osu started second half of Maryland with backups. I’m not sure making comparisons against two bad teams is really a good comparison that should hold any weight comparing teams. At halftime it was 27-10 osu vs msu and and was 17-7 Michigan vs msu at half. Wisconsin was a game into the start of the 4th quarter. Besides a look ahead loss to Illini and then crushed by osu, Wisconsin has been pretty good team.
November 21st, 2019 at 5:14 PM ^
Yeah, you raise good points.
To that I'd add that this is Ryan Day's first OSU-Michigan game, and although he's obviously a good coach, I don't think he's the football genius Meyer is. We'll see how he gets his team prepared to play a charged-up Michigan team on the road.