Reasonsf for Optimism - OSU Game
First, Indiana is this weekend, but the game doesn't hold much appeal in light of the B10 Race. As with many of us, I have a hard time not thinking ahead to OSU.
There are so many reasons we might expect to lose the OSU game. I thought it might be easier to focus on the reasons we might win:
- The Game is at home.
- OSU has not played anyone decent on the road this year. In fact, their schedule is pretty crazy. The only two schools anywhere near their talent level (and still a solid rung or two below) in Wisconsin and MSU hung with them into the 3rd quarter. Both were at home.
- Don Brown has been staying up nights. The mesh routes will not be there.
- Aside from Wisco, which was an early road game in our potato growing period, Michigan has performed similar to OSU against common foes. Michigan's defense has performed about the same or better than the OSU defense against MSU, Rutgers and MD. On offense, Michigan had similar yards per play in 2 of the 3 games. Overall, the transitive property does not indicate OSU as much of a favorite at all.
- The above, and the advanced metrics, do not fully tell the story of the seeming emergence of the offense through the course of the season.
- OSU will be coming off a "big game" atmosphere. It is always hard to maintain intensity over longer stretches of "big games."
- This is the title game for Michigan this year.
Of course, BPONE and all that. But, this game doesn't look as "scary" as it did a month or two ago.
November 21st, 2019 at 7:13 PM ^
There are multiple areas you can argue that Urban was a better coach than Day, but Day and the staff have been really good at making in game adjusts on the fly in the first half instead of waiting to figure things out at halftime. Second quarter has been by far best quarter for osu all year. There hasn’t been a let down game this year, so while questioning Day seems appropriate I wouldn’t hold out hope that is going to be the reason osu loses this game. If Michigan was able to make adjustments faster against Wisconsin and especially Penn st, those games could have been different but in both games adjustments were made at halftime which was too late.
November 21st, 2019 at 5:18 PM ^
Beat IU
November 21st, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^
OSU certainly lucked out with their schedule, getting Wiscy and PSU and (dare I say it) Fickell's UC Bearcats all at home.
That said?
Presuming, of course, OSU wins on Saturday -- and I truly think it's gonna be lopsided AF -- there's very little doubt in my mind that they would have won all three of those games on the road, too. Maybe by slightly smaller margins, but definitive wins all the same.
So...
I really don't feel all that good about our chances on November 30. But hey, anything can happen, as they say. I was actually hoping for a 1950-esque Columbus blizzard to hit AA on the 30th, but it looks (right now) as though it's gonna be around 40 degrees and cloudy that day, so weather won't be a factor at all.
I'll keep the faith here in SW Ohio, though, as always. GO BLUE.
November 21st, 2019 at 5:42 PM ^
Bpone is for weaklings.
November 21st, 2019 at 5:57 PM ^
My biggest hope is that Day is in full Cooper mode. Dominant teams all year that didn't make UofM as big a priority. Michigan wins. Rinse and repeat... Because if they're just flat out, "that good", I will be sad, oh so sad. But, hope springs eternal, and we have a very talented team that is just hitting their stride.
November 21st, 2019 at 6:02 PM ^
GREAT post
except for the insidiously STUPID (latest acronym from Brian that the Parrot Brigade feels they must overuse to the point where anyone who says it now deserves to die horribly multiple times)
November 21st, 2019 at 6:20 PM ^
Ask me after the IU game. In 1969 OSU had a 22 game winning streak, defending national champs. Michigan had 2 early losses to Missouri and MSU, then won 4 games before going on the road to Iowa. We smoked Iowa and the team was feeling strong. Came home to face the highly favored Buckeyes. See my screen name: 24-12. Let's beat IU convincingly and then repeat 1969 fifty years later. Go Blue!
November 21st, 2019 at 6:45 PM ^
I hope Michigan scores 63 points and wins by 24 points. +1 in both categories over OSU's win last season. It's only fair.
November 21st, 2019 at 6:48 PM ^
The first weather forecast for November 30th in Ann Arbor came out today. It's saying 35 degrees with 1.8 inches of rain/snow. So which offense do you want? The Harbaugh pin-and-pull, down G fest we put on Notre Dame, or anOSU's fancy fancy spread offense?
November 21st, 2019 at 7:53 PM ^
You are aware osu has 288.1 yards per game rushing. Leads the big 10. Michigan is 8th with 162.6 yards per game.
November 22nd, 2019 at 9:01 AM ^
You should brush up on your football knowledge if you think OSU runs a spread offense.
November 21st, 2019 at 6:55 PM ^
Maybe the 2015 / 2018 games were what they turned into due to a couple coaches on the brink of new jobs. Let's hope the whole staff has been preparing better than those thinking about their next jobs.
November 21st, 2019 at 7:06 PM ^
Let's keep this post hot all the way through the 30th. This post needs to be saved. Our fan base as well as the entirety of UoM is hungry for this win. I hope that we can present osu with a team they cant handle. I want IU smacked too, first. Lord willing, we posture the win early and mop up the stragglers in the 2nd half of Vs IU.
November 21st, 2019 at 7:40 PM ^
First beat Indiana then to beat OSU we will have to shut down the run I mean 80 yards or less block Chase Young I’ll repeat that block Chase Young and not just with a Tight End, and score points not going to beat that team 17-13 going to have to be in the upper 30’s, and win the turnover battle. Easier said then done.
November 21st, 2019 at 8:31 PM ^
I like that, despite the rocky start, it currently seems to me that this is the best offense and best defense Michigan has had under Harbaugh.
November 21st, 2019 at 8:57 PM ^
I think Day is going to attack the middle of the Michigan defense. Runs between the tackles and throwing in the seams behind aggressive LBs and safeties. I hope Donny B has a counter up his sleeve.
I think Michigan can put up some points assuming they continue their run of excellent game plans, I'm just not sure it will be enough.
November 21st, 2019 at 10:15 PM ^
We are winning this fucking game this year. I feel it.
November 21st, 2019 at 11:32 PM ^
I’m hoping Day just doesn’t emphasize this game as much as Meyer. Meyer was obsessed with beating Michigan. He just opened up a restaurant in Columbus and the nicest room is the “7-0 room”.
conversely, don’t forget how pissed our coaches were when Mattison and Washington both left for the buckeyes. And our defense has been practicing against a spread offense for nine months straight. I weirdly feel confident in this game. I think, for first time in harbaugh era, they’ve been prepping for it for nine months.
November 22nd, 2019 at 1:13 AM ^
Poor guy has a really bad skin and eye problem. Maybe he should sit this one out.
November 22nd, 2019 at 1:17 AM ^
Sign of things to come...
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:40 AM ^
Maybe. Or maybe . . .
It was 50 years ago to this day . . .
The year before, Michigan lost its first game, but won the rest, many in dominating fashion. It worked its way up to a 1-loss #4 ranking prior to The Game. Then Ohio State gave #4 Michigan a historical stomping (50-14).
The year after that, Michigan won a couple, got blown out, won a couple, lost a closer one, and then won the rest convincingly. It worked its way up to a 2-loss #12 ranking before The Game. Prior to The Game, Ohio State won every game in a blow out, and went in ranked #1.
The stage was set for The Game in Ann Arbor.
In 2018, Michigan lost its first game, won the rest, many in dominating fashion, and worked its way up to a 1-loss #4 ranking prior to The Game. Then Ohio State gave #4 Michigan a historical stomping (62-29).
In 2019, Michigan won a couple, got blown out, won a couple, lost a closer one, and then started winning convincingly. It worked its way up (so far) to a 2-loss #13 ranking. Ohio State won every game in a blow out, and is ranked (so far) #2.
The stage is set for The Game in Ann Arbor!
This could be a glorious tale for the ages. A tale of destiny and redemption. Of struggle and heroes! :)
For all we know, it is one of the Eternal Patterns, etched across the Celestial Realm by the Football Gods themselves! :)
November 22nd, 2019 at 10:37 AM ^
I was there in 1969 - have never forgotten that anything can happen...
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:07 AM ^
Don Brown is preparing for last year’s OSU offense.
Great, that should work out well....
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:27 AM ^
Don Brown told me (1) that you don't know squat about what he is preparing and (2) that you obviously didn't watch the last several games.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:12 AM ^
hopefully i wont get slaughtered in here....im a buckeye. tbh, i was curious how you folks were feeling going into THE game. im in my 40's, so i vividly remember the 80s when we were very average with 9-3 bruce running the show. Beating you guys... when we did, was a huge thing. But with the Bucks dominating the way you guys used to.... i have a 13 year old whos only seen one loss in the series, and that was the tattoogate year... he just doesnt understand why the game is such a big deal. i thought things might change when harbaugh came back... hated him, of course, when he played for you guys lol... but i really thought hed bring back the magic. i have, of course, been keeping track this year... watched every game of ours and yours. i love the head of steam youve been building.... and i genuinely hope this years game is a good one... as a bucks fan... i miss what the game used to be.
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:12 AM ^
I respect fans who are decent people -- like you, sir! :)
There are Michigan fans who hate everything Ohio State.
Me, I respect Ohio State football. Also, I want Ohio State to be a great team and win lots of games -- and then for Michigan to beat them!
Michigan is, with Harbaugh, already in some ways a lot more competitive for Ohio State. In 2015, Harbaugh's first year, we weren't. In 2016, if one single controversial call in double overtime went a different way, Michigan would have beaten #2 ranked Ohio State in the Horseshoe. In 2017, even with enormous offense problems, Michigan gave Ohio State a very good fight (leading until end of the 3rd quarter). In 2018, it was an 8 point game until 5 minutes left in the 3rd period. Then there was the blocked punt, and the wheels came off.
Let's see what 2019 brings. 2019 is a historically great Ohio State team, and new coach Day looks -- amazingly -- like he is not a step down from one of football history's greatest coaches. 2019 Michigan had a rocky start, and it looked bleak. But they are coming on strong. I think they -- as of right now -- have the best offense and best defense yet under Harbaugh.
I'm greatly looking forward to The Game.
Wolverines will *never* stop furiously striving to sink those teeth into Ohio State. It is just a matter of time! :)
November 22nd, 2019 at 6:38 AM ^
that wasnt as bad as i expected lol. ever post on an lsu board? dear god. one guy told me he was going to eat me children. actual quote. i think youre right... this is the best osu team ive seen. they remind me of that miami team from the early 00s... and i enjoyed the um/msu game... i think its the first time i ever legit cheered for the wolverines. there are many who hate michigan back in ohio... tho i live in wisconsin now. i do think harbaugh has started to evolve... 3 yards and a cloud of dust doesnt work any more.
November 22nd, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
Hahaha! Eat your children! Priceless!
November 22nd, 2019 at 4:13 AM ^
By the way, I'd watch more Ohio State games, but they have all been such blowouts that it isn't much fun after the first few minutes. :)
I'll be watching Ohio State vs. Penn State, though.
November 22nd, 2019 at 8:46 AM ^
I'm always a little torn on this topic. You have two types of UM fans that seem to be the loudest; 1) We should beat osu no matter what they are doing or have going on and, the more apathetic 2) well shucks they just too good let's win 9 games and move on it's the best we can do.
I think most of us are in the middle. Here is the deal...osu is doing/has done something historically great the last 10-15 years. Yes, bama has one more NC's but the amount of year after year talent osu has accrued and the amount of wins amassed it's simply historic. I hope you guys are enjoying it and realize how historic this is.
Now that also isn't me being totally apathetic...we can recognize the above and also say "ok, fine, but Michigan shouldn't get blown out by osu or on the road at UW". We should EXPECT that UM go into the osu game every year losing 1 game, be a top 6-8 team, and to be a 1b to osu's 1a and ready to dogfight osu for that 1a big ten ranking.
My frustration is while we are getting closer to that, UM isn't there yet. Granted, I like Harbaugh and he is getting UM closer to that. So, again, I'm torn. On one hand UM needs to beat OSU more than twice every 19 years. On the other hand I'm asking UM to beat a team on an absolute historical run.
I'm happy with the trajectory at this point and I probably underestimated how long it would take after the RR and Hoke debacle. Osu benefited (and credit to them it's not all luck) from unreal transitions. To tressel to meyer and now day is good planning and a shit load of luck. Nothing wrong with luck either...all hugely successful teams need some.
November 22nd, 2019 at 3:19 AM ^
Michigan will need it's run defense. Ohio State has been run-heavy and lethal on the ground all year. If Michigan can tamp that down in a way they weren't able to with Wisconsin, there's a chance.
November 22nd, 2019 at 5:40 AM ^
I’ll play along. The only thing we have going for is right now is this team, at least for now, is hitting its stride. Harbaughs teams have a history of peaking around week 8 and then pissing down their legs. These guys are hungry.
November 22nd, 2019 at 6:26 AM ^
Michigan’s defensive tackle position and defending the run is what worries me this year
December 6th, 2019 at 7:48 PM ^
Is it scary now?