Reasonsf for Optimism - OSU Game
First, Indiana is this weekend, but the game doesn't hold much appeal in light of the B10 Race. As with many of us, I have a hard time not thinking ahead to OSU.
There are so many reasons we might expect to lose the OSU game. I thought it might be easier to focus on the reasons we might win:
- The Game is at home.
- OSU has not played anyone decent on the road this year. In fact, their schedule is pretty crazy. The only two schools anywhere near their talent level (and still a solid rung or two below) in Wisconsin and MSU hung with them into the 3rd quarter. Both were at home.
- Don Brown has been staying up nights. The mesh routes will not be there.
- Aside from Wisco, which was an early road game in our potato growing period, Michigan has performed similar to OSU against common foes. Michigan's defense has performed about the same or better than the OSU defense against MSU, Rutgers and MD. On offense, Michigan had similar yards per play in 2 of the 3 games. Overall, the transitive property does not indicate OSU as much of a favorite at all.
- The above, and the advanced metrics, do not fully tell the story of the seeming emergence of the offense through the course of the season.
- OSU will be coming off a "big game" atmosphere. It is always hard to maintain intensity over longer stretches of "big games."
- This is the title game for Michigan this year.
Of course, BPONE and all that. But, this game doesn't look as "scary" as it did a month or two ago.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
Not beating them at home does not mean that being at home does not help. Logic: it's your friend.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
Clearly that isn't the case. The record speaks for itself.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
Not beating them at home does not mean that being at home does not help. Logic: it's your friend.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
We beat OSU in Columbus in 2016. Unfortunately, we did not beat OSU AND the refs...
November 21st, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
I think we are probably going to win if we don't turn the ball over.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
I'm reasonably confident that we'll win if we score more points.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
We should wait to see if John O'Neill and his crew are the officials before making such a claim.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
The BPONE voice in my head tells me I IU finds ways to expose coverage flaws and OSU will capitalize x 10.
The William Wallace voice tells me Don Brown and his M sons ARE FREE MEN! And they will fly across the LOS screaming as they wield Axes, Swords and spears.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
I've never understood these takes. It's as if everyone thinks the Indiana coaches are geniuses and only if they do something, will the dummies at OSU figure it out. The reality is that Ryan Day was selected by Urban Meyer. You can hate Meyer all you want, but he seems VERY sharp on TV and I suspect he picked a VERY GOOD x's and o's guy in Day. Day may prove not to have all it takes to head coach, but I bet he'll be quite ready for what we throw at him during The Game, regardless of what stupid Indiana does.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
IU fields a similar-ish offense and it comes the week before OSU, so it gives OSU a good preview of what's working against Michigan right now. OSU coaches are smart, but it's one thing to draw up a plan on paper and another to see it on the field in real-time.
Having IU play Michigan the week before basically gives OSU a free preview of how Michigan will defend similar concepts. There's no doubt that it helps OSU. Next time we get to weigh in on scheduling I would lobby hard to play IU mid season and move Rutgers to the week before the Game.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
IU and OSU had similar offenses last year. This year, OSU is predominately run-oriented.
November 22nd, 2019 at 12:54 AM ^
and get disemboweled
November 21st, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
Let's see how we perform at Bloomington. If our dominance continues against a solid IU team on the road, my optimism goes up a big notch.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^
50 years ago an undefeated OSU team arrived in Ann Arbor as a prohibitive favorite against a two loss Michigan team. OSU was #1 in the country, hadn't lost in almost two years and was considered unbeatable.
Final score 24-12 Michigan. No reason that can't happen again. No reason at all.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
I've been enjoying the parallels to '69 too. OSU hadn't had a close game all year. When they got punched in the mouth, they didn't know quite what to do. Can history repeat itself?
November 21st, 2019 at 1:05 PM ^
Gas was $0.39 per gallon in 1969. I hope if history repeats itself I get some relief at the pump.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:09 PM ^
Adjusted for inflation, $0.39 in 1969 is $2.73 today.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
Well shit, there goes my hopes and dreams.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
I have been reading or hearing this same story for the past 10 or so years. We have still been getting our asses kicked by them.
November 21st, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^
I wouldn't say Michigan got its ass kicked in '11, '12, '13, '16 or '17. In all those games it was virtually tied or Michigan had the lead in the 4th quarter. Of course, we only won one of those games (of course, the friendly ref spot in '16 should have been a W too). But, 5 out of the past 8 have been tough, competitive football games.
I know the donkey punch pain of of last year and 16 really hurt. But lets not pretend OSU has been blowing us out on the regular. It's a hurdle we are close to clearing.....
November 21st, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
Except almost every year since 2003 it hasn't.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
Apparently the new "Brackets" defense is going to fix everything. I guess Ohio's never see that before...
November 21st, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
There is only one thing that could make me optimistic about our chances of winning this game and that is if Fields does not play.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
Um. Dobbins makes that offense work.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
I'm hoping Metellus has a pick 6. It might be 2 years too late but man that would be awesome for him and the team.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
Also--and this is a big one--OSU's offense this year is very different from what they used to shred us. This year it's much more of a run-based spread option, which Brown has been very good at stuffing. For example, their 2017 offense was #3 in SP+ with a senior QB and was a very similar style. Brown stoned senior Barrett in the Big House.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
Difference between Barrett and Fields is Fields can throw the ball. They can run but they can drop back and throw the ball if needed to. OSU has 3 WRs who are NFL caliber.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:50 PM ^
Ohio State's passing offense was #4 in SP+ in 2017 despite the fact that they were a run-based team. I think it's safe to say that Barrett could pass the ball.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
I am hopeful but beating the Buckeyes is a DAUNTING task this year. They are 100% a complete football team this year and adding Mattison at DC is what did it unfortunately. They are currently ranked:
Total Offense: #4 #1 in 3rd down conversions
Total Defense: #1 #3 in 3rd down conversions
Red Zone Offense: #33- Their weakest spot
Red Zone Defense: #1
Everyone is talking about LSU, however, their defense may keep them from winning the national championship this year. The only team close to the Buckeyes statistically is Clemson and they have the best DC in college football. The LSU defense is not ranked in the top 50
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/701
November 21st, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
Yeah, that defense looks fricken solid. Right up until you look at who they've played to attain it. Wisconsin is the only offense that had a chance to do anything, and it was way more one-dimensional than it was against Michigan. Coan had a terrible day throwing, but they gave him a great plan against Michigan's total lack of DT to plug the up-the-middle run game they rely on.
I don't have any doubts that they have a really good defense, but lets not say they're a brick wall before they play some team has both a pulse and a balanced offense. Maybe PSU this weekend?
Until they completely shut down the PSU and Michigan offenses, lets call them a stout berm.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
You raise a good point about their team. The defense seems to have carried the day. They have really eliminated the "big plays" that did them in from past years. But, I am not sure how much that defense has been tested. The best offense they faced was Wisconsin. A much different offensive style than Michigan.
Also, they seem to credit "communication" for their success on defense. Not sure how easy that communication is in a hostile environment against a good team that will break tendencies. Probably still good though.
As for Mattison, I just can't see this as being attributable to him. I think Hafley is the guy calling the plays. It makes sense. Mattison provides counsel and knowledge about B10 teams. A young, hotshot coordinator only goes to OSU if he is allowed to call the plays. I assume that Hafley drives the ship and Mattison provides advice, probably similar to what Mattison did for Don Brown. Of course, we are all just guessing about it. (They make almost the exact same salary). In any event, you can't just chalk this up to Mattison.
Here is an interesting article that seems to heap the credit on Hafley as opposed to Mattison:
November 21st, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
Mattison was a very good DC who just spent a few years under one of the top minds in the game. In addition to probably picking up a few things from Brown, he also has vastly superior talent to everyone he's played so far. I think there's a good chance that the improved fundamentals at the very least can be attributed to him.
November 21st, 2019 at 11:52 PM ^
Mattison has the best defensive player in college football. Look no further than 1997 Michigan with Woodson as to how that luxury can pay many dividends. If Michigan can find ways to neutralize Chase Young then we can find ways to win.
November 21st, 2019 at 4:17 PM ^
Agreed. Mattison is the Chairman. Hafley is the CEO.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
Let’s not look past Indiana. Win Saturday and then let’s worry about OSU
November 21st, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
Whatever. OSU is the only game left that matters. There, I said it.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:50 PM ^
I don't think this is true. If we manage to beat OSU and win at Indiana I think it is very likely we would go to the Rose Bowl. That would matter. I think the Indiana game is very important.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
I don't think anyone posting in this thread is playing on Saturday. Us looking ahead to OSU doesn't matter.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
Beat me to it. Well said.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
Dude. Just stop. None of us are players. We can worry about or discuss the OSU game in week one, if we want.
I cannot stand the "one game at a time" bull shit from people who have no involvement with the team whatsoever. Nothing we say or do affects the outcome of games.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:15 PM ^
No. UM cant win the east. Beating IU and losing to OSU does nothing. Losing to IU and beating OSU- I'll take it.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:36 PM ^
I mean nothing if you consider ending Michigan's chances of making a Rose Bowl appearance for the first time since 2006 nothing.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
After Wisconsin, my BPONE was cranked up to 11.
After seeing Michigan since 2nd half pedophile state, I think Michigan can beat OSU.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^
Beat Indiana.
But regarding OSU, it will have to take UM's best game of the season and OSU will have to have mistakes. Something like giving up a pick-six, fumble or punt block that UM can convert into an easy TD.
IDK, UM was up 14-0 in 2017 and still lost by double digits. So jumping out early doesn't necessarily mean nothing. UM just can't have a PSU-like start.
Hopefully OSU goes into the game over confident and takes a while for them to wake up.
It's likely a loss. Beat Indiana, show up to the Bowl, hopefully its someone they can beat, and get the fourth 10 win season in five. Try again next season.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
I'm torn about trying for punt blocks. It seems like the majority of times we go for one we miss it just barley then get flagged for roughing the kicker (especially against OSU).
But I guess to beat OSU we're going to have to take some chances, so yeah go for it.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
My resonsf for optimism...
Yeah, there basically are none after the past 2 decades. We have been punched in the mouth repeatedly by OSU everytime we thought we had a chance and I expect no different this year. I would love to have some legit optimism that we might win but until they can pull one out I will forever be a pessimist about this game.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:29 PM ^
I had reasonsf for optimism last year. It didn't end up feeling so good.
So I remain pessimistic, and would love to be surprised, and pissed I canceled my trip to Ann Arbor for the game the week after Wisconsin.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
f off.
No, seriously, take the f off.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
Its hard for me to find much optimism about this game. I know Michigan has been playing better, and playing at home is helpful, but its still OSU.
Someone wrote a really good article last year (may have been in the Daily) about Michigan always seeming to get to this point, they've been pushing this ever-growing boulder up an enormous hill, they finally get towards the summit, they can see the promised land, and people wonder if this is the year that they finally get it to the top and push it down the other side. And then....just like clockwork, OSU is always waiting at the top, ready to dropkick that boulder with a vengeance, right back down to the bottom of the hill, forcing Michigan to start all over again and question all of its methods.
Until I see it happen, I have to assume Michigan will find a way to lose. Either by getting a thorough ass-kicking, or they will shoot themselves in the foot and let OSU right back into the game to win it. That's been our reality the last 20 years, and until I physically see it change, its hard to imagine any other result as anything more than a dream.
November 22nd, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
"For fun" I've been watching replays of M-OSU games from the years under JH. Aside from last season and 2015, we have been razor close to winning. The every play highlights show me that Michigan was the better football team until very late in the game. OSU summoned another gear late in games that we haven't been able to counter. The cliche' is tired and trite but we need to finish.