PSU is #38
Penn State is at #38 in total offense and #38 in total defense heading into this weekend. UM is at #29 in total offense and #5 in total defense, so we hold the advantage on both sides of the ball.
Drilling down a bit, we see that Penn State's defense is #5 in rushing defense to our #7, but #102 in passing yards allowed to our #11.
So, we have both been very good against the run and we both bring an elite running back. Freshman Nicholas Singleton will be tough as he has averaged 7.35 ypc.
Also, PSU has managed turnovers well at a TO margin of +6 through 5 games while we're at +4 through 6.
My keys to the game:
- UM stopping the run first and forcing old man Sean Clifford to make plays.
- They are likely to be stout against the run and try to force JJ to make plays as well. We must be able to pass on them given their performance so far this year.
- Win the TO margin.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
That's an off-the-rack suit if I've ever seen one on Ryan Day.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^
I want to see this, and lots of it:
(Note the two OL laid out on the ground in Hutch's wake in the last photo. Fucking hilarious).
October 11th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
and maybe a little bit of this from Smith, Morris, Okie, Harrell, et al.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
This pic will always get a thumbs up from me.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
The single most telling part of that picture is all the Penn State players far in the background walking away with zero concern for their QB.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:17 AM ^
Posted this above as well...
In the more accurate stats of F+ :
We are #8 on offense and #7 on defense. #4 overall
PSU #37 offense but #6 defense. #12 overall
October 11th, 2022 at 9:38 AM ^
And according to SP+, UM is favored by about 12 points. I think the line opened around 7. I'm not sure if it has moved.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:21 AM ^
I am starting to think we need to sticky an opponent preview thread. We had about 5 yesterday.
Also, I think fancy stats have PSU defense ahead of ours.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
I don’t mind the multiple posts about opponent previews, especially for a huge game like this. What else are people going to comment about this week? I’ve actually found that the topics on the board lately have improved a lot in terms of being relevant and interesting during the season.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
That's an interesting idea.
I think substantive posts that actually seek to provide some numbers or information, a category that this post qualifies for, is fine. We get multiple threads about Scott Frost and Draymond Green, why not actual talk about our next opponent? So I don't mind the multiple posts.
...But I think a sticky isn't a bad idea because I actually think it could encourage more substantive discussion of the upcoming game. We don't always have a lot of talk about next week until we get the film posts from Alex later in the week, but no reason we can't have more talk about it.
October 11th, 2022 at 1:20 PM ^
I just think it would encourage more conversation as it would remain at the top instead of multiple threads that generate discussion and then are quickly pushed aside for Scott Frost, Draymond Green, or 4 more Penn State threads.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^
Going to be a tough game by the looks of it. Winnable but need to put in a complete performance.
Key Matchups:
Playcalling vs Tendencies - Think we need to see a creative, pass-first offense this week using some of the stuff that's worked well earlier in the season and adding some new wrinkles. Let's win this one on the back of JJ's arm in the first half, pass to open up the run, and get out to a nice lead. Then we can "impose our will" and do all that Harbaugh grind them into paste shit in the second half
Linebackers vs Clifford - LB is clearly our biggest weakness and an experienced, savvy QB with good short yardage passing and escapability is going to make for a long day. Need to find a way to contain Clifford and cover the backs and TEs in the pass game. Feels like it could be a Maryland-like performance from the D, and the difference between the W and L is getting off the field on some 3rd downs vs letting Clifford extend drives.
Stupid Stuff vs Franklin - the best way to offset your inherent advantage baked into playing James Franklin and his tendency to do something dumb/inexplicable is turnovers and penalties. Need to play a clean game.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
I am worried about the Linebackers vs Clifford too. Clifford is a crafty 30-something year old, 12th year senior by now, isn't he?
October 11th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
Didn't he back up Kerry Collins?
October 11th, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
Well shit. We may as well send the JV. This game has nothing to do with stats.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
A couple early humiliations by our run game will make them even more susceptible to play action and RPO. They haven't dealt with an OL like this.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
How to indicate that you don't know anything about football or basketball:
Use counting stats for anything.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
No need to bully.
I thought the fact that PSU's total offense and total defense was the #38th ranked team was interesting and worth mentioning, and so I stuck with the statistic of relative ranking for the entire discussion.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
It isn't interesting, because it's meaningless. It's no more relevant to the upcoming football game than knowing that Beaver Stadium is 1.4536 degrees south and 5.8926 degrees east of Michigan Stadium. In fact, it's worse than meaningless, because it paints a false picture of the matchup.
I don't mean to be a bully, but the simple fact of the matter is that if you're imparting significance to things like total offense and total defense rankings, you don't understand offense or defense. They have a lot more to do with pace than they do with skill. Furthermore, by using the official NCAA rankings, you're using numbers that haven't been adjusted for opponent. You can get away with that in the NFL, where schedules are relatively balanced and there's not that much of a difference between the best and worst teams. In the NCAA, you end up with ridiculous items like Michigan being #1 in the country in scoring offense (which was true through 3 weeks and may have been true through four).
October 11th, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^
JC, you sound like a real treat. Guy/Girl just wanted to talk Football and put some stats up to discuss about the game on Saturday. Take a Xanax breh
October 11th, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
My keys.
1. Frames could return.
2. Old man Clifford will meet Ameba Mike & Okie, and repeat.
3. Do not offend nittanylionfan. He's good people.
October 11th, 2022 at 1:56 PM ^
NittanyLionFan is the best opposing fan that posts here. I realize there are a couple good Buckeye posters too but I hate Ohio State so NittanyLionFan gets my vote.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
Biggest key to the game is that it's at home. It seems like things have settled back to normal after the 3 years of trading nearly identical home blowouts from '16-'19 followed by COVID year, but these teams both have more success in this series at home. They're probably close enough that playing this game in Beaver Stadium might be a lean to loss, but in The Big House Michigan should win a competitive game if they can keep the annoying Sean Clifford stuff to a minimum. That's probably up to the linebackers though so it could be uncomfortable for a while.
On a kinda related, kinda unrelated note, is anybody else dumbfounded that Penn State is doing their White Out for the Minnesota game and not the Ohio State game? That atmosphere is worth points, seems like that choice borders on self sabotage. Is it not entirely up to them which game they choose because of TV obligations or what?
October 11th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
I think OSU-PSU is a “Big Nude” game on Fox. The white out theme works much better on a night game - the OSU game would have surely been a white out if it was the ABC night game imo.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
"The white out theme works much better on a night game"
So does a Maize-Out...
October 11th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
“Big nude”? I hope that game gets moved to pay-per-view.
Sounds much more distracting than a white out.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
Maybe PSU is thinking they don't want to waste a White Out on a guaranteed loss vs OSU.
October 11th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
Rupert,
"That atmosphere is worth points" - is a great comment. And, though the media contracts, obviously, result in incredible amounts of revenue for teams, there's also something to be said about maximizing the team's chances to win.
I'm very glad that the Michigan - PSU game will be a Maize Out. However, I really wish it was at night, instead of noon. The atmosphere for night games IS different. And, my gut says the team gets amped playing in Michigan Stadium with everything associated with the game and fan participation provides Michigan with an advantage.
Another smaller factor is the weather. A night game in mid October will (most likely) be warmer than a late October / November game, which would be beneficial for fans.
The Michigan - OSU game has a traditional noon start time, which I appreciate. It would be nice if the media agreement permitted Michigan the flexibility to schedule their evening game(s) in advance - at least one game per season.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Please roll JJ out of the pocket more. He is near perfect on the move and has the arm to cover much of the field regardless of heading toward one sideline (which also gives him a safe way to gain 5 yards if he keeps it).
October 11th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
Good test for both teams. Can't wait!
October 11th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
My keys for the game. Roman Wilson 1) return to the lineup, 2) run fast by some guys, 3) catch some hopefully not overthrown balls.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
Why do people still try to use total offense & defense stats as predictors of games when they’ve been thrown out of use by Vegas, pro gamblers, and analytics gurus because they’re not opponent or tempo adjusted?
October 11th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
Because there were already multiple threads discussing those and this guy had very important opinions that needed to be heard right now.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
While they're passing yards allowed is near the bottom in the country, they allow just 5.8 an attempt, which is 11th in the country. I still think Michigan can protect the passer well enough to still take some advantage through the air (PSU got most of their 13 sacks against Auburn, who is turrible), but it's not like Michigan can expect to blowtorch Joey Porter, Ji-Ayir Brown and company.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
In fairness to the OP the board and mods want threads like this to be re-created. You cannot "bump" to the top threads to further engage in conversation so it is sort of asking for folks to create threads with same/similar topics.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
One thing I will say is Penn State has played two horrible weather games that directly affected the offensive side of the ball
October 11th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
Talent is one item that many of us here comment on. Here's a look at the Team Talent Composite between PSU and Michigan - going back to 2015. This information is sourced from 247.
2015 - PSU: 21 Michigan: 9, Result: at State College, M 28 - PSU 16
2016 - PSU: 20 Michigan: 8. Result: Ann Arbor, M 49 - PSU 10
2017 - PSU: 19 Michigan: 7, Result: at State College, PSU 42 - M 13
2018 - PSU: 13 Michigan: 8, Result, Ann Arbor, M 42 - PSU 7
2019 - PSU: 10 Michigan: 11, Result, at State College, PSU 28 - M 21
2020 - PSU: 13 Michigan: 17, Result, Ann Arbor, PSU 27 - M 17 (Covid)
2021 - PSU: 16 Michigan: 15, Result, at State College, M 21 - PSU 17
2022 - PSU: 15 Michigan: 14, Result, Ann Arbor - TBD
Over the past four years, the talent of the two teams has been very close.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
https://twitter.com/_Collin1/status/1579859711079641088?s=20&t=6I1q9AWy0r0GtiyIXnuD6A
Best unit in College Football for Passes Defensed: 1) Penn State 11.2 per game 2) Pitt 7.3 per game The Nittany Lions have doubled up 120 teams in FBS when it comes to Passes Defensed per game
Pretty crazy stat right here. PSU pass defense is elite.
October 11th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
Is that possibly a consequence of teams passing more against them? More opportunities = more passes defensed? Kind of like MSU allowing few running yards because the passing yards are so many and so plentiful? I also saw a lot of teams trying to force the ball in against their top DB (related to an NFL player, but the name escapes me). Maybe don't throw to their strength unless it's really open?
October 11th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
Yes, yes it is.
The team with the most PBUs either has an elite rush defense, a terrible pass defense, or a fantastic offense (causing opponents to have to pass because they trail so often).
Case in point — anybody want to go to bat for the Pitt defense, #2 on that list?
October 11th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
But PSU's opponents have attempted 45.2 (!!!) passes per game --- which is literally the highest rate amongst all 131 FBS teams. The per-game attempts have ranged from 37 (NW) to 59 (Purdue).
I do think PSU's secondary is pretty good, but that PBU stat is inflated by the raw number of opportunities they are getting. PBU is a bit of a judgment statistic anyway - there's no exact definition for one, so it's dependent on who is watching the video.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
Singleton is a damn good back who should have gotten many more carries than Franklin has given him. I'll be surprised if he doesn't bust at least one long run against us.
October 11th, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
My keys:
Keys to the game:
1) Play
2) Play to Win the Game
3) Win the Game
October 11th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
The offense stats also don't include Chad Powers, who has not been unleashed yet.
October 11th, 2022 at 12:34 PM ^
excellent costume. i had no idea that was Eli when i first saw clips
October 11th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
Maybe I am just a joyless turd but the Chad Powers thing was less funny to me because Jared Goff did the same thing in 2018. You can see it here.
October 11th, 2022 at 2:05 PM ^
If MGoBlog has taught us anything, it is that you can enjoy the same joke over and over.
October 11th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
Is it just me, or is Clifford the most "Average Joe" looking QB in major college football? He looks like a 30-something fan who won a contest to suit up for his favorite college team.
October 11th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
To be honest, all of these stats are pointless right now as they don't take into account one pf the most important stats - strength of schedule. Maybe as the season progresses, they'll mean more
October 11th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^
Truthfully neither Michigan nor PSU have a good SOS right now. Not that that's either team's fault. Auburn was anywhere between good to really good when they got their series scheduled with PSU, but they've plummeted into the earth. UCLA backed out of what would've ended up being an extremely good series this year and next with Michigan. Michigan's three OOC games were the creamiest of creampuffs, but they've shown a couple of warts as the schedule got tougher. They ultimately looked and played like the better team in each of those games, but there were flaws shown.
Same with PSU. They've taken care of the teams they were supposed to take care of, but have also struggled at times. But both teams have shown they can win on the road, both have good skill positions, both have good defenses. They both mirror each other a bit, so that probably makes for a close game.
Hopefully the X-factor is home field advantage.