Oregon now favored to land top-100 WR Gatlin Bair
https://saturdayblitz.com/posts/oregon-football-trending-for-elite-2024-wr-gatlin-bair-01hnbt8mq6zj
Originally, he was favoring Michigan. This seems to be an indication that Michigan's NIL is not where it needs to be. Bair has a 3.93 GPA and will be going on a mormon mission for two years. Losing this kind of guy shows how stupid our NIL policy is.
January 29th, 2024 at 11:22 PM ^
The Ore-Ida Axis: Big Potato strikes again.
January 30th, 2024 at 12:04 AM ^
no waffles here (just Wafles)
January 29th, 2024 at 11:27 PM ^
I blame Keith Jackson
January 30th, 2024 at 1:40 AM ^
Whoa, Nellie
January 29th, 2024 at 11:30 PM ^
Some posts you can almost guess who posted it. Positive news comes from random users a lot. Negative news comes from a few frequent flying things. I'll leave this right here for ya!!!
January 29th, 2024 at 11:35 PM ^
Don't really care. A lot can change in 2 years
January 30th, 2024 at 7:14 AM ^
Exactly. We lost out on Andrew Gentry. Then he came back from his mission and saw the light.
January 29th, 2024 at 11:38 PM ^
And who is the favorite to land him when he chooses to transfer? Can't get too worked up over stuff like this, totally new era and environment for recruiting.
January 29th, 2024 at 11:38 PM ^
Let's see how Moore keeps our current roster and commits/recruits intact.
That will be a telling sign of how the program moves forward.
January 29th, 2024 at 11:40 PM ^
Can you do everyone a favor?
STOP POSTING CRAP TAKES.
Thank you
January 29th, 2024 at 11:41 PM ^
Three seasons in a row where recruiting momentum has completely been killed after the season, so frustrating.
January 29th, 2024 at 11:42 PM ^
This is probably more about Ben Herbert...
However NIL is a problem.
Warde is committed to the concept of paying athletes and employees below what the market dictates. . He opposes allowing M supporters to pay the athletes what they would command at other schools - (because he worries those payments will replace other athletic contributions)
I assume this is a "next man up" view of workers. One that does not recognise the unique contribution of star performers.
I believe we are watching adverse selection happen in real time across our entire athletic department - where our best athletes, coaches and staff members are pulled away by competitors who recognise their true value contribution to the organization - meanwhile the unproven and less productive remain behind.
Fortunately Warde was handed an athletic department in phenomenal condition with excellent physical plant, facilities, financial resources and coaches. It will likely take several more years for him to fully drag us into mediocrity.
January 30th, 2024 at 12:17 AM ^
About the only thing I have to say about Warde is a reiteration of what I said in another post. He's a pure admin guy. He's a numbers guy in a position that is as much about working with people as anything else. Reports, Excel spreadsheets, and line items.....I'd imagine that's what he's focusing on.
His deficiencies in working with people are probably masked by the fact that his reports look really good.
January 30th, 2024 at 5:45 AM ^
He’s not even good at being an admin guy. Penny pinching your way into being irrelevant. Basketball once a dominant force has regressed every year under Howard. Penny pinching is yielding great results. Warde is bad for Michigan and bad for athletics.
January 30th, 2024 at 8:39 AM ^
Agree. That’s the feeling I got when I saw how much Moore’s contract was for. That Manuel is more of a budget/bottom line guy than one who is truly concerned with putting out the best product on the field/court that Michigan can.
Just a handful of short years ago $5.5 million a year was a pretty good salary for a first time coach, even at one of the bigger football schools. In 2024 that amount is very low, especially considering how much LSU just got its new DC for ($4.5 mil/yr) and the reports of Harbaugh’s offer (anywhere from$12.5-15 mil/yr). In my view, even with Moore being a first time HC, his offer should have been in the $7-8 million range, and a simple guarantee to Herbert for 10 years(considering his known value to the program) would have been an easy choice to make even with a smaller bottom line at the end of the fiscal year.
Winning, and winning a lot, brings in lots of donor $$$$ to a school’s athletic department. In that regard spending money to make money just makes sense.
January 30th, 2024 at 12:31 AM ^
This is probably more about Ben Herbert...
However NIL is a problem.
So, why exactly is he leaning towards Oregon over Michigan? Does he think Wilson Love, the Oregon strength coach is better than Justin Tress? If Herbert was part of his recruitment, he had to be aware of Tress. A lot can happen in two years, Andrew Gentry was going to go to UVA but ended up at Michigan.
January 30th, 2024 at 11:52 AM ^
1) It doesn't matter what Warde opposes - collectives are private groups completely uncontrolled by the University and can do whatever they want.
2) Paying players up front is against Michigan Law. The university paying player at all is against Michigan law.
3) Those payment WILL replace other athletic contributions, including contributions that are used to fund the football program.
January 30th, 2024 at 12:17 AM ^
Wishing Gatlin the best. Hope he gets the most out of his mission. It will be a great life experience. A lot can happen in two years. Hope he changes his mind by then.
January 30th, 2024 at 12:23 AM ^
Gentry committed to Virginia prior to his mission. https://www.maizenbrew.com/football/2023/6/29/23778428/michigan-football-andrew-gentry-offensive-line-2023-scouting-report
That turned out well.
January 30th, 2024 at 12:34 AM ^
Michigan comes in second for five-star recruit. News at 11
January 30th, 2024 at 1:22 AM ^
It is absolutely reasonable for the fan base - and even university to be coming down on Warde. The Harbaugh situation alone was a failure that directly involved him. Harbaugh probably still would have left, but the friction between the two had been clear for months, and he had a direct hand in not giving Jim what he wanted. Even the sign stealing stuff was a disaster from a PR stand point, and he never seemed willing to support Harbaugh. That aside, he has overseen some serious negative things happen in the Athletic Department, and has taken an L in nearly every scenario as far as handling situations go. At some point it can't be every one else's fault. He seems to make everything hard for the Athletics and is consistently a road block more than an ally.
With all the fuck ups he's had, he should feel lucky to still have a job, and is deserving of all the hate he has been getting. He's the AD, this all comes back to him, and he has done very little inspire confidence that he is/has done all he could to stop these negative things from happening. Herbert being the most clear example.
January 30th, 2024 at 9:46 AM ^
Still waiting for you to get to the recruit that's the reason for the thread though.
January 30th, 2024 at 3:10 AM ^
This is too typical of the posts on here. Where is there even one shred of evidence Gatlin has NIL as a major factor in his decision on arriving on campus in 2026 after living two years on oatmeal, beans, and no television on his mission?
January 30th, 2024 at 6:08 AM ^
One could argue he committed to Oregon which is widely known for throwing out NIL money. Yes! They are a passing offense, but NIL is at the same level.
January 30th, 2024 at 5:31 AM ^
Yes I'm sure NIL money is the tipping point for a kid about about to take 2 years off football for a mission trip. Great logic.
January 30th, 2024 at 5:56 AM ^
He is trending to a program that just signed 5 receivers and has 16 on the roster over a program that signed 2 receivers and has 7 total on the roster. I understand that he will not see the field until atleast 2026, but Oregon will continue to receive this level of volume of receivers throughout 2026 while Michigan will/cannot. Of course this is partially due to NIL. The other factor is possibly Harbaugh leaving, but NIL definitely is one reason.
Could also be that Bellamy just isn't a good recruiter for top level receivers. Michigan's recruiting for top receivers has not been stellar, even if they are not a passing first offense. Neither is ND or Georgia, yet they are pulling in better talent at that position.
January 30th, 2024 at 7:42 AM ^
Let's throw another factor to consider. Gatlin Blair is from Idaho. Michigan originally lost out to Bosie State. Now it appears that he is trending towards Oregon. Could it possibly be that this kid would prefer to stay on the west coast? I don't know, we speculate that everything else is driving this kid away from Michigan, I'm just wondering if no matter how great the program is at Michigan, that he would prefer something closer to home?
January 30th, 2024 at 12:34 PM ^
That could be the case, but if it were, then why even have Michigan in your top 2 if you are determined to stay out West?
January 30th, 2024 at 4:47 PM ^
Because it's a damn fine school, I don't know but when recruiting nationwide you sometimes get kids like Devin Asiasi who think they can make the adjustment but just miss the west coast too much.
January 30th, 2024 at 6:05 PM ^
Based on how Oregon is recruiting using NIL and pitching their offensive numbers to recruits, your logic seems less likely. It is definitely not out of the question, but like I said; less likely.
January 31st, 2024 at 4:05 AM ^
You may be correct. I can honestly say this, If I was 20 years old or so and I liked school A and felt that it would be a good fit for me, but school B comes alone and offers me somewhere between 5 to 6 figures a year to go to college, I am pretty sure I could make school B my home. I felt lucky to earn $8 an hour working the summers when I was in school.
January 30th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
2023 Receptions by receivers:
Michigan: 140
Oregon: 246
...and their top TE had 42 catches for 414 yards (Loveland had 45 for 649).
January 30th, 2024 at 6:02 AM ^
How does the triple hedging of "favoring" Michigan, "seems," and "an indication" turn into the absolute certainty of "shows how stupid our NIL policy is"?
January 30th, 2024 at 6:15 AM ^
A dude going on a mission trip for two years has zero interest in nil. Dumbest take ever.
January 30th, 2024 at 6:19 AM ^
He and his dad REALLY liked Herbert. IIRC, Bair wants to work in that field and they really liked a guy that just left to follow our old HC...and that coach's son who is also likely leaving and a main contact of Bair's to UM.
Also, he had ample opportunity to commit and never did. He watched us win a title and not even that was enough. If Jim and Co stayed, he likely chooses UM but even then I'm not so sure.
It likely has more to do with those things than NIL for a kid that won't even step on a campus for two years.
January 30th, 2024 at 6:47 AM ^
lol
yes, it's NIL and not Harbaugh or Herbert.
FOH.
January 30th, 2024 at 6:58 AM ^
Not sure how one can conclude NIL was the deciding factor on this one.
Seems more likely the coaching change played a larger role.
January 30th, 2024 at 7:09 AM ^
Or he could change his mind fourteen times between now and when he actually commits. After he committed to Boise I stopped paying attention.
January 30th, 2024 at 7:44 AM ^
Bair liked Jim, loved Jay, and wants to be a S&C coach so Herbert was a factor. These combined with our offense and this wasn't hard to see coming.
January 30th, 2024 at 7:44 AM ^
More than half of this roster will be gone by the time Bair could even set foot on campus. He's a non-factor, until 2026, for whoever he commits to.
Hard to get all bent out of shape over a guy like that.
January 30th, 2024 at 7:46 AM ^
Ugh, this fucking guy. Every off season, including after WE WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP, we gotta listen to his bitching about stars.
Michigan is the fucking king. For at least six more unfootballed months. Please cry about recruiting minutia to yourself.
January 30th, 2024 at 7:58 AM ^
Seems to be an indication? Sounds like baseless speculation wrapped in bacon. Out head coach just left. Maybe that has something to do with it.
January 30th, 2024 at 8:05 AM ^
This is one of the reasons adding Oregon to the Big Ten was a horrible decision. If Oregon remained in the remnants of a PAC-10 or ended up in the Big XII, I’m not sure they get Bair.
A lot can change in two years. Maybe Lanning ends up the coach at LSU or Florida in the next two years, and Bair reopens his recruitment (and/or transfers; I don’t remember how it was classified for Andrew Gentry after he committed to Virginia but ended up here before ever arriving at UVA).
January 30th, 2024 at 8:54 AM ^
I was never a fan of bringing in Oregon at all. You want to add Nike University to your schedule in the dawning age of NIL? A school with a young, SEC-taught coach that's on the West coast with unlimited resources and desire to spend them? Never liked it. I disliked that one more than the other P12 schools by a lot. USC concerns me less than what Oregon is going to become in the next 4 years.
January 30th, 2024 at 9:38 AM ^
And now you don't have to win every game to make the playoff. Having more good teams in the conference is only going to help in the new playoff system. This level of fear is confusing.
January 30th, 2024 at 11:17 AM ^
Aside from “we’re a good football team” Oregon adds nothing to the Big Ten and more specifically, The University of Michigan.
From an educational standpoint, they will rank 17th out of 18. From a research standpoint, they are a vast outlier and don’t fit at all.
From a travel standpoint for Olympic programs, they are a burden (and more so than USC-UCLA).
Looking at it from the “planting a flag in the region”, there is no reason for Michigan to be there. There are a dozen other states that would be more important from a recruiting standpoint (both student body and athletes) as well as connecting with alums.
They are the only Big Ten school that received more money in donations for the Athletic Department than their Endowment over the last 15-20 years.
They are also one of the smallest student bodies in the Big Ten (about half the size of most Big Ten schools).
Unlike Nebraska, they aren’t a natural geographical rival, and their fans aren’t going to fill our stadiums.
There just isn’t a whole lot about Oregon that makes sense, other than helping FOX.
The competition we have in The Big Ten - especially with adding USC and UCLA, and presumably Florida State soon, as well as another ACC school or three - is plenty.
Aside from travel, Oregon is going to get all of these benefits to their academics, research, recruiting, etc, and we aren’t getting any of that in return (like we did with USC/UCLA, or Penn State, or Maryland & Rutgers).
January 30th, 2024 at 2:49 PM ^
It's not a fear thing. The other poster that relied to you covered most of it but from a football competition aspect it's exactly what I said. It's a program that's going to hoover-up talent with the exception that they seem to value some things that the OSU & USCs don't. Lanning seems to get that you can be explosive but need to be able to crack skulls, too. Again, he's an SEC guy at heart.
They simply add the most danger to us from a football program while bringing little else to the table beyond that. At least the California schools open up the California footprint and aren't slouches academically. Oregon is just almost literally Nike University sitting in the northwest that only brings issues for us haha. There is no benefit I can think of off hand. Not a fan of it.
I'm actually not a fan of any of it but I at least get wanting to add USC. Of course you add USC if they want in. Same for UCLA and Washington. I hated the Oregon addition. Would have preferred another 4th, probably Stanford or Cal.
January 30th, 2024 at 8:05 AM ^
Nothing about Bair matters for two years anyways.
January 30th, 2024 at 8:30 AM ^
He was originally committed to Boise State. I don't think NIL is the thing here. Just venturing a guess but maybe he wanted to play for Jim Harbaugh? I don't know, just spitballing here.