It’s Just Talent
Talent and mistakes, but mostly talent, and if you have less talent you can’t make mistakes.
People are frustrated after an 8th straight loss and looking for things to blame - I totally get it. The culprit, however, is not Jim, it’s not Don Brown, it’s not scheme, it’s not any of our coaches, or desire to win, or culture, etc. etc. It’s just a team with unreal talent playing a team with only very good talent (2nd in the composite compared to 11th, to be explicit). Depending on your view of things this will either deliver you deeper into BPONE or bring a level of acceptance (or both I guess), but Michigan has done everything it can do to compete and win this game outside of closing the talent gap.
As for whether we ever close the talent gap and become regular winners of The Game, well, that’s on the administration. Are we willing to make more admissions and academic standards exceptions, including ones that would allow taking JUCOs? Are we willing to support a comprehensive bagmen system to compete for the elite kids that want that kind of compensation? When the answers to those questions become yes, then we will have a chance to be a top 5 program. As long as the answers are no, we will be in the 7-12 range.
I love Jim as a coach. I think he’s a fantastic football coach, and I think he’s done literally everything he can do above the table to make us great. We have a great staff of coaches, we have great facilities and support staff, we recruit hard as hell and explore transfers aggressively, and we think outside the box to get ourselves advantages against programs who play money games. I think we need to stay put with this staff. It’s just talent - we need to be top 6 or 7 in the composite to compete with who we want to compete with, or we need to accept 10-2/9-3 every year, and one or two magical 11-1 seasons under Jim.
Michigan is faced with a simple decision: join the so called “cheaters” to regularly compete for championships or accept being in the second tier of top programs and having a hard ceiling. I think federal NLI legislation would be a great boon for our program, but until then, it is what it is.
December 1st, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^
Every few years? More like every few games.
December 1st, 2019 at 7:48 PM ^
This year, the scoring gap could have been significantly less if UM had punted a couple of times rather than going for it on 4th down and handing OSU a short field both times. But going for it on 4th down was the only chance to get back to having a chance to win.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:10 AM ^
Purdue has beat them. Iowa has beat them. PSU has beat them. MSU has beat them. Harbaugh’s coaching rarely shows up in big games. He’s putrid on the road and now he’s getting blown the fuck out at home. Should we make exceptions for players? Sure. Otherwise join the Ivy League.
EDIT: his teams also fold when adversity hits. Surprising because his Stanford teams seemed tough.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:13 AM ^
Get ready for the arrogant "we don't sneak up on anybody" retort.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:26 AM ^
Losses to worse teams is the price OSU pays to overprepare against Michigan. Unless Michigan can close the talent gap, Michigan would have to lose multiple games against overmatched opponents to consistently compete with OSU. IMO that would see Harbaugh out the door faster than the 9.6 wins/season he has already established.
Besides, Harbaugh is only 0-4 against OSU. He is also 0-1 against the Big Ten rigging the matchup in OSU's favor.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
All of those teams required massive OSU blunders to win - OSU doesn’t make mistakes against us.
Consider the talent gap between Auburn and Alabama - quite similar to ours with OSU. Auburn requires a Heisman-contending QB to go down, the backup to throw TWO pick sixes, and the Alabama kicker to miss a chip shot FG, just to beat Alabama by three points at home. That’s the level of poor play by the more talented team it takes to overcome the talent gap. I can’t think of the last time we got that kind of luck against OSU, and it’s certainly not something you can plan on.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
Their (OSU) quarterback came back in on one good leg and promptly threw a 50 yard TD pass.
Whenever this happens, the board is full of know-it-alls who all the sudden have great inside stuff about the goings on of every program. I'm waiting for MgrowOld's annual "I know a guy who knows everyone at OSU and..." bullshit to emerge soon.
Harbaugh is not proving to be the coach to get Michigan over the hump. PERIOD. Even Franklin can beat Ohio State or turn a blowout around. Michigan did have 2016, yes--BUT
All the excuse makers are out. Harbaugh's teams are not mentally or emotionally or physically prepared to beat OSU. For whatever reason, we cannot even adjust to what they are doing and as the games go on, we get worse. That is coaching. Coaching. Coaching. And if you ned more talent--go fucking get it, you make 10 mill per year.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:04 AM ^
Are you really forgetting that Auburn beat Alabama just two years ago? And also beat them in 2013? Kind of blows up your case that yesterday was just some perfect storm that I guess Michigan is never lucky enough to have happen for them.
You say OSU never makes big blunders against Michigan. That sullies your own argument because Michigan sure makes blunders against them! They are way more focused and better prepared. It's not "just talent".
December 1st, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
OSU never makes big blunders against Michigan. That sullies your own argument because Michigan sure makes blunders against them! They are way more focused and better prepared. It's not "just talent".
Yes, the more talented team makes way fewer mistakes. Exactly. That's talent.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^
Dropping snaps and jumping offsides are not talent issues, they are mental issues.
Christ, you are really bad at this.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
Your mental ability and consistency is not a part of talent since when? What do you think scouts are discussing when they say guys have "high football IQ" or describe guys as "heady" or "disciplined"? What do you think scouts are talking about when they describe players as "inconsistent" or say that they can play outside of themselves at times?
Your mind is part of your talent, my man.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
Auburn won in 2017 with Alabama's starting QB playing...that's not an excuse.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
Couple things.
1. Just because something is generally true in many cases, or is a large factor, doesn't mean it's true in 100% of situations or the only factor. You seem like one of those wonderful people who loves pointing out exceptions and smugly declaring someone wrong.
2. The larger point about Auburn I think is valid. Other teams seem to have players that just rise up and play their best on the biggest stage against their more talented biggest rival, and manage to pull of the upset at a higher clip than UM has against OSU in the last 20 years.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
I don't put this game on Harbaugh. I put this one on the players. Those four first half mistakes were 100% on the players and it cost us 15-19 pts. It's not on Harbaugh that Nordin yanked an XP, or Shea dropped the snap, or Hudson went offsides on a punt, or DPJ dropped a sure TD before the half. Those are all mistakes by very talented young men that should never happen at this level of football. I personally cannot put that on Harbaugh. The players need to be held accountable too and they sure gagged it yesterday.
We had 250 passing yds in the first half alone. That takes some pretty solid game planning to pull that off against that defense. The players were put in position to succeed by the game plan and failed to do so. The defense is another story but the offense didn't help them either with all of the drops and Haskins with a huge read gaff (if he follows Bredeson he is still running).
December 1st, 2019 at 9:12 AM ^
Part talent, part scheme. Football was played differently when we were beating them on the regular. OSU has adapted to changes in the game and has benefited.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
OSU has done a great job of identifying our weak points on offense and defense and relentlessly pounding them. They execute the plan well. I’m not sure I see a methodical plan on our part to find our own faults and fix them. We seem to be running from fire to fire trying to stamp them out.
Offensively, we’ve probably had to come further to close the gaps. The talent level is up across the board and we all know about the huge hole the O-line was in. The O-line handled Chase Young pretty well. Things got dicier when we had to pass-pass-pass as the third quarter progressed. Defensively, we’ve had some great parts, but always a hole or two that OSU can exploit. We all know this year has been played with pretty average DTs. They got plowed by the huge O-lines of Wisconsin and OSU. We’ve had some speed issues in the secondary. OSU schemed to get their fast guys on our slow guys....again.
We definitely need more talent, but given you can’t fix college talent gaps with trades, we need a complete close all the gaps plan. May require support from all areas of the university to do this to help get some talent qualified.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^
Do we really think Michigan isn't paying players? Do we really think Rashan Gary passed up 300K from Clemson to come here for 3 years of a Michigan education? Michigan is paying players, we're just not doing a very good job of getting the elite players to come here.
Anyone who's a weak recruiter needs to be gone like yesterday. Fuck bring back Brady Hoke, the dude can recruit and better yet he can identify and develop DL talent, which we desperately need right now. But all of our assistants need to be A+ recruiters.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:36 AM ^
Hey -- you forgot the "HARBAUGH DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THE RIVALRY!!!" part. Where is it?
December 1st, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^
I know that it would be wrong to say that no Michigan player has ever taken benefits from a Michigan booster. However, we do not have a “bagmen” system like the Clemsons and Georgias do, no. That’s a fact. Rashan did not get $301K to come here, Geoff Schwartz.
That’s kind of my point here though. If you can’t guarantee that you’re 100% clean, then you might as well lean in to being dirty. Otherwise you’re just caught in this limbo.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^
The thing with “cheating” is that its really just player recruitment by illegal means and just like there are people and organizations better at legal recruiting than others theres also better cheaters than others. This isnt an option you switch on and suddenly all the 5 stars start rolling in, this is a whole hidden game in itself.
One of the biggest predictors of success in criminal enterprise is the environments tolerance for it. Its easier being a narco in Guatemala or Mexico than it is in the US or Canada. Similarly its easier to cheat in a very successful manner in college sports when you are in an environment where everyone is on the same page regarding the importance of winning vs compliance with the rules. Its much harder when you have to consider that a significant % of folks locally have zero or very low tolerance of this sort of enterprise.
There was little reason for SMU to suddenly become a big national player in the 80s, just like there wasnt for Baylor or Ole Miss recently..except a near desperate and very much comprehensive commitment to win at just about any cost.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:16 AM ^
Solid summary, Doc. I also think Harbaugh is a great coach. We will regret it if we as fans run him off IMO.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^
Schlissel is the problem....at a 3rd rate school like Auburn the boosters would try to get him removed
Michigan is probably close to their talent ceiling in the current environment.
Would they admit a 5 star QB transfer in January that signs up for online classes in October?
December 1st, 2019 at 9:25 AM ^
Agreed that Schlissel will be a roadblock to meaningful talent improvement.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
I’m okay with that.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
And that’s fine. It’s just a decision we have to make as individuals. Either you’re good with status quo to maintain the University’s perception and standing, or you want to lower standards and bend some dumb rules. I’m okay with wherever anyone falls on this issue, but this is the issue facing our program. Just pointing it out.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^
Well put
December 1st, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^
OSU has superior talent, ie Heisman candidates. They have no less than three; Fields, Dobbins and Young that played on that team against us. Do they make mistakes? Very few.
Michigan will need a late season Heisman QB, running back and one on defense come next season. That is very unlikely to happen.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
People don’t realize that most seasons the #11 class in the composite is closer to 35th in 247 total points than they are to 2nd. in 2018 when we were 22nd and OSU was 2nd, Buffalo and their 95th ranked class were closer to us in recruiting than we were to Ohio State.
That’s how this rankings stuff is right now for recruiting. The talent advantage OSU has over is as much or greater than the talent advantage we have over programs like Indiana, Purdue, and MSU. We have to hope OSU has a bad day and we play lights out to play them even and have a chance to win. And because they’re so focused on this game all season they won’t have an off game of us but once in a decade.
And average star ranking is not relevant. When our 4 stars who mostly are ranked around 175-250 count the same as their mess of top 75 4 stars it invalidates that as a metric. Right now our top ranked player in the 2020 class would be their 9th ranked. And they’re going to add about 3 or 4 more top 75 kids before signing day.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:24 AM ^
Talent is a factor but not all of it. It's also part coaching. Harbaugh's teams shit the bed on the road and against better teams. They make ridiculous mental mistakes that are inexcusable. Dropped passes are mental. Penalties are mental. Missed assignments are mental. Michigan made dozens of mental mistakes yesterday. OSU made maybe 3 or 4. That was the difference between a 29 point blowout and a winnable game decided late.
I'm tired of the talent excuse. Teams like Wisconsin and MSU prove it isn't all about talent. They have had very good seasons and wins over OSU despite the talent gap.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
How does a coach prevent dropped passes/penalties while getting athletes keyed up to play the biggest game of their lives? Not trying to be snarky, genuinely curious how one would thread that needle in practice.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
Repetition and discipline
December 1st, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
What would you do if your hanging with them and they start to pull away from you as you give everything you’ve got? Go you still stay as focused? Do you still do exactly what you did early on? Prime example of this is boxing....class a fighter again class b fighter. The class be fighter always hangs around but starts to get beat up in the middle of the fight and ko’d sometimes. Michigan’s game plan was solid. Yes there are some plus within the package that could have been called better but that goes with the territory and doesn’t matter who you are or who your playing.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
I'd contend that OSU made a similar number of mistakes as Michigan but it didn't matter because their O Line paved our D line all game. Fields made bad reads and throws more than he made good ones. Their receivers ran some iffy routes and had a few drops. They muffed a punt at their own 20. Their linebackers were on skates for most of the game. etc etc etc.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:25 AM ^
I think this is mostly a talent issue, but it bothers me how undisciplined and disorganized they seem at times.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:25 AM ^
What's the talent gap between Alabama and an Auburn team that put 48 points on them and has won like 4 out of 10? I haven't looked It up. Guessing it's a similar disparity. Auburn must also celebrate Thamksgivimg a different weekend because they don't give up 40% of their tickets to Alabama fans and it's in the same damn state.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:37 AM ^
Auburn’s talent gap to Bama isn’t as big as ours is to OSU. Auburn has out recruited us 3 of the last 4 seasons.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
Everyone in the SEC is open to all the avenues in recruiting, except perhaps Vandy. Cam Newton ended up in Auburn because they outspent the competition. And most Auburn folks are fine with that.
The difference between this stuff at Auburn or OSU or Bama etc. and Michigan..is that at Michigan you need to isolate this 100% from much of the university community, local media etc. Its like trying to run a wrestling league where half the people think its ‘real’.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
The SEC has a saying like “if you ain’t cheating, then you ain’t trying.”
December 1st, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
The talent gap isnt so huge that they should win by 4-5 TDs in Ann Arbor. Did Michigan play its best game of the year yesterday? Nope. Its possible that even if they had, theyd have lost by 3 or 7 or,maybe even 10, but thatd be a different narrative for sure.
But long term, there is a talent gap sure, and it’s unlikely to go away. We will likely win this game again at some point, but barring a change in how college football works fundamentally they ll probably win 75%+ of these going forward indefinitely.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:33 AM ^
Agreed.
one thing I don’t get, is how does NLI legislation help? If the players can receive compensation why would that prevent an SEC team from saying “you get to advertise here *and* we have the same illegal bagmen network willing to continue paying...”
December 1st, 2019 at 9:33 AM ^
And forget about Ohio State going backwards. If you follow their recruiting you know that next year in terms of 5 star/top 60 player talent, they’ll have the most stacked starting lineup the conference has ever seen. Out of 22 starters they honestly have a chance to start 19 5 star or top 60 recruits next season.
They could have an O Line that goes 5, very high 4, 5, 5, 5 with a 5 star QB and 2 5 star WRs with a 5 star TE backed up by a very high 4 star TE. That is just insane.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
When the 5 other threads about the other teams cheating is not enough...
December 1st, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
It's all talent. Plus focus, of course.
OSU, over the course of the next many years, will lose a game here and there. They will come out unfocused against Purdue, or Maryland, and either lose, or almost lose.
Unfortunately, they have structured their program so that they will never be unfocused against Michigan. Thus, UM will continue to lose this game until money becomes pervasive in the sport. UM doesn't tolerate "family friends" the way OSU does, and until that changes, the talent gap will be large.
Oh, and for those who don't think sloppy play relates to the talent gap: if you've ever played a sport, you know that when the opponent is better, there is a large mental load of trying to be too perfect and make too perfect of plays. Eventually, this wears on you. You make mistakes. It is hard to play a perfect game when trying too hard; you really need to relax and let the game come to you.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
get out of here with your reason. i want more people yelling dipshit!
December 1st, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
His "reason" is largely speculation and created situations which he then argues. False premise, false conclusion. Michigan fans and message board guys chase more demons and create more conspiracies than republican politicians these days.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:43 PM ^
well forget calling people dipshits, i didn't even consider that we could bring politics into this! what an oversight on my part!!
December 1st, 2019 at 9:40 AM ^
Without a DL hard to stop runs
December 1st, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^
I have a hard believing that high academic standards are what really hold this program back from being as good as OSU.
If guys like Nick Bosa or Chase Young were academically only good enough for OSU (maybe they were good enough for Michigan, but don’t know, just an example) but called Harbaugh up and said they wanted to come to Michigan, I can bet my bottom dollar Harbaugh would’ve been working his ass off to help make exceptions for them to be admitted.
The problem, among many other things, is that the tippy top recruits usually only want to go somewhere that they know will win them a national championship. They know they will do that at OSU. They know at Michigan it won’t happen, so coming here isn’t an option for them. They’ll get a good education, get to go on cool trips, compete for and make NY6 bowls every 2-3 years, but that’s about it. They want national championships, and that’s not something Michigan can provide for the foreseeable future.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^
This is exactly the situation. This is the new "modern era" of college football. Shit or get off the pot. I'm finished with the old era. And I'm a boomer sick of losing.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
This “bag men” thing is soft. Pure and simple.