It’s Just Talent
Talent and mistakes, but mostly talent, and if you have less talent you can’t make mistakes.
People are frustrated after an 8th straight loss and looking for things to blame - I totally get it. The culprit, however, is not Jim, it’s not Don Brown, it’s not scheme, it’s not any of our coaches, or desire to win, or culture, etc. etc. It’s just a team with unreal talent playing a team with only very good talent (2nd in the composite compared to 11th, to be explicit). Depending on your view of things this will either deliver you deeper into BPONE or bring a level of acceptance (or both I guess), but Michigan has done everything it can do to compete and win this game outside of closing the talent gap.
As for whether we ever close the talent gap and become regular winners of The Game, well, that’s on the administration. Are we willing to make more admissions and academic standards exceptions, including ones that would allow taking JUCOs? Are we willing to support a comprehensive bagmen system to compete for the elite kids that want that kind of compensation? When the answers to those questions become yes, then we will have a chance to be a top 5 program. As long as the answers are no, we will be in the 7-12 range.
I love Jim as a coach. I think he’s a fantastic football coach, and I think he’s done literally everything he can do above the table to make us great. We have a great staff of coaches, we have great facilities and support staff, we recruit hard as hell and explore transfers aggressively, and we think outside the box to get ourselves advantages against programs who play money games. I think we need to stay put with this staff. It’s just talent - we need to be top 6 or 7 in the composite to compete with who we want to compete with, or we need to accept 10-2/9-3 every year, and one or two magical 11-1 seasons under Jim.
Michigan is faced with a simple decision: join the so called “cheaters” to regularly compete for championships or accept being in the second tier of top programs and having a hard ceiling. I think federal NLI legislation would be a great boon for our program, but until then, it is what it is.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
No its not. Its the reality. If you think all these recruits go to Columbus and fall in love with OSU, you are dense.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
Both teams has the same number of opportunities to take control of the game on Saturday. OSU grabbed it by the horns, Michigan pissed it away through undisciplined play, poor play calling at crucial moments, and lack of execution.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
It’s the bargaining stage today. Our fans like to think our program is superior somehow. Academically the NCAA Clearinghouse is what both programs work to and I still haven’t seen evidence otherwise. And we have a lot of players in bull crap majors and have even had kids on the team who can barely read.
And as far as paying kids, if you think someone turned down $300k to play at Clemson (and win national titles) to play here for free, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
Do we have more integrity than OSU and Clemson? Yes, but you’re kidding yourself if you think we’re not doing some stuff too.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^
When people like you get dumb and start talking about bagmen and grades, your arguments really lose steam. First, please PROVE all these other teams have no academic standards, then prove Michigan does, then find these bagmen.
Michigan has talent--it is little things. Other coaches are eating and sleeping football and their teams. Harbaugh is still squirting out babies and having his wife run around town like a debutante and to be honest--his attention isn't all there.
The little things, the lack of discipline--those are issues with the program and the head coach. PERIOD.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
I mean, it has all ready been proven....multiple times.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
I mean, no it hasn't. And sorry, John Bacon books don't mean shit to anyone but Michigan fans looking for excuses.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
Attention to detail. It can begin and end right there. An offsides penalty on a 4th and 4 punt after the defense put out the fire following a devastating turnover. That was ballgame. I don’t know of another team in the country that would have happened to. If those kids did not know how very very cautious they had to be in that precise moment to avoid a penalty, that literally the football game DEPENDED almost completely on that exchange, that is because they have not been taught what “the moments” are. And that may just be because, though it may defy belief, their coach does not recognize them either.
That is the reason I have stopped chalking he Kick 6 thing against MSU as some chance Act of God. It wasn’t. Those kinds of things, to varying degrees, have never stopped. It was “a Harbaugh.”
(Edit - I am not calling for Harbaugh to be fired, but he should be called to task, by Manuel, the media, donors, etc., about that play and why those plays continue to happen. Michigan recruits smart young men to play here, but they continually engage in really really dumb football plays. Meanwhile, all of those kids at OSU who apparently can’t “play school” and only get into college because OSU allows dumb people on their team seem to play football with an intelligence and understanding of the moment that Michigan could only dream of. The untying of the shoe as well, that was frankly an MSU move right there).
December 1st, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
MSU has beaten them and we can’t....it’s not talent, it’s stupid coaching decisions. Our offense last year was pretty good and our D gave up 60+.....so the answer is to revamp offense completely, costing ourselves two winnable games in the process while leaving the D untouched?
Bad decisions all around...
December 1st, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
The OP has it spot on. I'll take the L any day rather than stoop to their level. The "M Brand" is too important to compromise.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
The alleged cheaters, which is to say those who win, are suffering no damage to their "brand" and in fact, their "brand" benefits from them winning and creating a culture that WINS. The WINNING has benefitted their universities as a whole and exactly ZERO student has ever said, "Wow I'm not going to Ohio State because Justin Fields took and online course" and exactly ZERO students will EVER say, "I'm NOT going to Alabama because Michigan fans think they pay their players"
The only people who care are on message boards supporting teams who do not win.
I don't want Michigan to pay players (I think they probably do shuffle money to a lot of them anyway), and I think they can and should compete for NC's a lot. If the "brand" is so prized, they should be able to be at the top consistently and they should always have the best coaches, players and facilities.
Something is missing--maybe the athletic department as a whole sucks? Maybe, just maybe, JIm Harbaugh is way overrated?
December 1st, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
Then, we'll be the Northwestern of the East Division in the B1G.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
It’s not talent ...
In 2018 Purdue beat OSU 49-20, OSU then beat Minnesota by 16 , Nebraska by 5 ,Maryland in OT by 1 !!! Yet we get curb stomped ,are you saying we are less talented than those teams who put up a good fight ?? The truth is we just don’t care about the GAME and it shows
December 1st, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
Yeah, the whole bitching about not caring enough is fucking stupid.
And anyone propagating it is too.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
December 2015: "Thank God Zeke Elliott is gone now."
December 2016: "Thank God JT Barrett is gone now."
December 2018: "Thank God Dwayne Haskins is gone now."
December 2019: "Thank God JK Dobbins is gone now."
I think I see the problem . . .
Yes it's talent.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
JH is responsible for building the roster and maximizing the talent. We are clearly behind OSU and losing ground.
If the eye test didn’t convince anyone of the difference in talent, then the recruiting “facts” should reinforce the gap. To paraphrase from 247: OSU has the #2 ranked roster in composite 247 rankings while UM has #12. Five star leaders are Georgia (14), Ohio State (13), Alabama (11), LSU (7), Clemson (7). That group is notable given they account for 47 percent of the active five-stars on FBS rosters.
There is clearly an arms race in college football. The concentration in the top programs is actually increasing.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
Problem with that is the assumption that every OSU recruit lives up to the billing and the ranking.
If that is true--then they really do have amazing coaching and amazing intangibles and we better match that.
Match them where you can--
I realize the difference between 2 and 12--but really, that is one or two players who really separate them from Michigan. Yesterday? Them going out and getting Justin Fields. Them having JK Dobbins. We have Shea, who emerged as his truer self in the second half and fumbled a snap to kill a drive earlier. We have Hassan Haskins and Zack Charbonnet who seem to like to go where are blockers are not blocking, and they think a "hole" is something to avoid. I think our receivers match them ALL DAY LONG. Our offensive line kicked ASS most of the day, at least as well as you would expect (I think they played great)
Our team turned into what we, or at least I feared: NO gamebreaking running back, and Shea Patterson who cannot exactly thread a needle with a pass. In fact, a TON of catches made yesterday involved the receivers adjusting to poor throws. As it has been all year, and them not being 7'4.
Talent? No, it's more. It's COACHING.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
You are dead wrong. It is 100% recruiting. Harbaugh had a plan to win the game yesterday but the UM kids just aren’t good enough to compete with the talent on OSU’s roster.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
There is no “assumption that every OSU lives up to ... the ranking.” The research shows more talented (higher ranked) ROSTERS outperform less talented ones. Not every player or every play or every game, but an expected outcome.
OSU develops and schemes very well to maximize their talent advantages. Day was smart to capitalize on 5* Wilson vs 3* Gray. Day was smart to capitalize on his more talented OL to maul the less talented DL. Day was smart to put 5* Fields back in the game to break contain and loft a great pass to 5* Wilson. They didn’t generate 560+ yds of offense because their O is gimmicky or complex, they leveraged their talent advantages.
UM’s sloppy play on O turned a relatively close game into a blowout. The O has enough talent to score 40+ on OSU. But the UM defense lacks the talent in the DL and secondary to play straight up, and Brown didn’t out-scheme Day to mitigate the disparity.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
Our defensive tackles are flat out mediocre and that dictated how we played defense and how OSU attacked us. IMO the rest of the defense is talented enough to slow them down. To me, that was the primary culprit against OSU and Wisconsin. In three years, here are the true DTs we recruited:
2016: Dwumfour
2017: Solomon (gone), Hudson (gone), Paea (does he exist?)
2018: Nobody
December 1st, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^
It definitely was the problem. But how do you not know about Mazi and Hinton? Those guys need to step up big time next year.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
I know about Mazi and Hinton. They were true freshmen and were never going to be viable at DT this year. My post was about how we got to where we are now. The 2020 class has no DTs again.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
We got shoved off the ball all day. It’s issue #1.
Hinton actually played decently yesterday.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:46 AM ^
Harbaugh is the worst recruiter UM has had ever. Don’t give me the crap about RR or Hoke. Harbaugh’s best players, especially on defense, were Hoke’s recruits.
Those satellite camp offers were a waste of time as all of those kids transferred. Under the radar trust the coaches 3-star kids who need years to develop don’t win championships and get smoked against elite talent.
What Harbaugh needs is a recruiting coordinator who can do the work for him because Harbaugh has no interest in recruiting high school athletes.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:18 AM ^
You sound like you have insider info on Harbaugh’s recruiting strategy. Please share any evidence about Harbaugh’s recruiting preferences.
I imagine you’re illustrating Dr.Mantis’ point unknowingly. Harbaugh is trying to win top shelf recruits when he can get them, but in today’s CF culture, the 5 stars flock to perennial playoff contenders. That’s why only 6 teams have won it all in the past 12 years. Two of which (FSU and FL) have dropped off the map due to coaching changes. If Harbaugh can’t get a 5 star signed, he has to do what every other coach does: move on to the next highest rated recruit.
you can rant about Harbaugh being paid so much that he should command 5 star players to come to Michigan, but it’s just not that easy in the pay for play culture. Until all programs have the same recruiting guidelines (benefitting players under supervision), Harbaugh will continue to struggle to bring in top talent... as would any other coach you believe would do better than Jim.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
Spot on. I wonder if the playoffs have made things worse, because the number of serious playoff contenders is so few. Used to be that you could be very happy with, say, a 10-2 season or whatever. No it's pretty much playoffs or bust, in the eyes of top players.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
Maybe we can attract 5-stars by telling them they will get to watch a top 5 BB team play.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
This is exactly where I am and it has really downgraded college football over all for me. Gone are the days of the unexpected outcome. The top 5 schools in the team composite have a huge talent lock on this playoff scheme and everyone else has no chance. Think of it this way, the 1st team players at the 6-15 composite teams are the 2nd or even 3rd string at the elite programs. That is why these games are not competitive.
Why can these top schools stock pile elite players ? It isn't academics or the promise of instant playing time. It's 3-4 year money and a tie-in to NFL agents that will position them for the draft regardless of play time. The NLI money won't change that rigged system as cheaters will only have more raw material to cheat with.
Structural changes are needed for college football. Until then we are going to be watching the same 4-5 teams in the CFP each year and conference title games of tiring rematches that become meaningless on a national scale. The Pac12 may never get to the CFP again.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
Nice post. I agree with most of it, although I am a bit more optimistic that the NLI money could change the minds of some recruits - especially is particular efforts are made to help the players really capitalize on their images (i.e. dont just be like "have an IG account," but instead, have some sort of counselors who help them market themselves)
December 1st, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
The argument that "our academic standards are too high" and "everyone else is paying players" is delusional. We are recruiting, and sometimes signing, the top players that we later accuse other schools of paying under the table or looking the other way regarding academics.
Year 5 - we should be better.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
Check the comparison of 5 star players at UM to OSU. 4 star players, as well.
There is a disparity and it’s not due to Jim putting a Bunch of 3 star players on his recruiting board or bypassing 5 stars. We just can’t get them for two reasons:
1. They mostly want a shot at a playoff or championship experience while they’re in school and many 5 stars do not believe they’ll be in school more than 2-3 years before bolting for the NFL.
2. There could be ways that the players or their families are compensated. Is Chase Young’s “loan” not evidence enough for you to believe there is underhanded compensation for players and their families at the top tier schools?
December 1st, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Is their talent better at untying shoes in a scrum? I don't see them jumping offsides on a 4th and 4 to give away first downs. There is just sloppy play and sloppy mental mistakes that come from lack of coaching. The players aren't held to a higher standard otherwise this wouldn't happen. Discipline is at a low-low level or these things wouldn't happen. (When I played football)....I wouldn't DREAM of taking someone's shoes off in a scrum. The penalties I would incur from my coach afterwards couldn't compare to what the Refs would do. I would dread the next practice or lack of playing time for being an idiot and hurting the team. Overall all, yes OSU has more talent. All teams in leagues do and that's never going away. However there is always a chance to beat the other team when you know this going in so you are on top of your game. You are a much more careful player trying to be mistake free. Your head is always in the game and you don't untie shoes in the scrum. Now get off my grass!
December 1st, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
See, this is stupid too.
2 seniors jumping offsides on a 4th and 4 punt isn't coaching. It's two seniors making a stupid mistake. Untying a guy's shoes in a scrum is an idiot player mistake.
An ill-timed blitz leaving a slower guy to cover a faster guy one-on-one is coaching. THAT'S where you have an argument. Scheme is coaching. Individual mistakes are players.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:04 AM ^
It's just an excuse, our coaching staff is one of the highest paid in NCAA Football. Michigan is not paying that amount of money to be "out talented" every year.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
If you were hired as UM’s recruiting coordinator, how would you snag all that 5 star talent to close the gap?
let me help you. You would have two choices:
1. find any means necessary of soliciting players to sign with your program (pay, cars, family “loans,” or other compensation)
2. You would keep things above board on the recruiting trail and with boosters, only to lose out on top talent being enticed to other schools. then, you would move on to 3-4 star talent.
Jim has taken approach #2. Hence, the talent gap. If you truly believe you could win over top talent with a charming personality, I’ve got some ocean front property in New Mexico you might be interested in buying.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
16 & 17 they had Dline talent but needed Oline talent. Now because of Solomon leaving and some recruiting misses they needed Dline talent when they had some of their best Oline talent in a long time. They’ve gotta have both at once.
Oline recruiting has been good. Mayfield has looked promising and so did Hayes although he had fewer snaps. The interior was highly recruited. Ruiz will probably be missed though. On the Dline Hinton and Smith are promising for next year and Dwumfor will be back. Gotta close on some recruits and/or transfers though.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
Ruiz will be here next year.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
Eff this.
There's not 30 points of talent separating these two teams.
There's enough talent to hold OSU to 34 points as MSU did (not even asking for 28 as they scored against PSU the week before) or even 38 as Wisconsin did or 42 as Cincinnati did.
Hold OSU to 34, and we're killing Patterson for the fumble or DPJ for not holding on to the ball.
Again, the only way for this team to give up 56 points to that team is to take risks that blow up, like blitzing on 2nd and forever. A vanilla, NFL pre-season style defense bends, hopefully forces a couple FG attempts, and holds them to fewer than 56 points.
Against OSU and PSU, 12 touchdowns, not a single field goal attempt forced.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
Let’s toss Army’s 21 and Wisconsin’s 35 on the pile and you have 19 TDs and no FGs.
Don Brown can force 3 and outs like nobodies business, but if you can get a single first down, you are likely going to end up in the end zone.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
Yesterday was a vindication for the Maizen way of thinking. They have more talent and the NCAA did us no favors by approving Fields’ transfer waiver. Even without him, though, I don’t see our defense holding Dobbins to under 200 yards. Once OSU forces us to sell out against the run, it’s bombs away against the weak spots of our secondary.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
That is what I witnessed - our undersized DTs getting blasted 5 yards downfield with Dobbins romping to 220 yards. And then play action bomb ... sadly with our FS having been torched by their elite speed WR.
The OSU game plan was simple - take advantage of our relative weak spots at DT and S. That OSU team is elite at every starting position. We have talent gaps that they can exploit rather easily. Those same gaps showed all season especially in the Wisconsin and PSU loses.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
No it’s not. It’s talent AND coaching. OSU is vastly superior on both counts. Harbaugh is not the answer. I don’t know who is, but I know it ain’t him.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
How do you know Harbaugh isn’t the answer if you can’t name a single viable option to replace him? Do you really know something is a problem if you can’t name a single solution?
December 1st, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Please explain any evidence you have that Day out coached Harbaugh? The final score? That is explained by talent. How would Harbaugh have done if he were coaching OSU’s talent? You think he would have squandered it away? That can be your opinion, but there is no evidence to say Day is a great coach when the talent disparity is so significant on the field.
try racing my 13 year old on his mountain bike while you ride a big wheel. My Money’s on the 13 year old with better equipment every time
however, I do Agree that Don Brown has proven he is in over his head against this level of talent. Any other coach with a slower secondary and limited interior line makes adjustments to be more of a “ bend, don’t break” type of defense that keeps everything in front of them.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
The mindset matters too. Justin Fields isn't wrong in talking about how the two programs approach the game. It's part of the culture of the two schools. Michigan fans don't hate OSU fans and much as OSU fans hate Michigan, in part because we have two conference rivals and in part because of how the two schools are and where the students come from.
We also have to move on from Bo. It's crazy to me that we talk about the 1969 game still. We hired Bo because he was a Woody guy, not a Michigan Man. Unless you find a coach who's going to be obsessed with beating OSU the way they and MSU are with beating us, we are going to stay where we are. If we are to constantly cling to Bo, at least let us remember he was obsessed with Ohio State.
Hoke was probably the worst coach of the three we've had since Lloyd (hence him not getting another job), but he played OSU the closest because he obsessed about it. That's what it takes. It's beyond strategic changes to match their style. It's obsession.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
I won't trade academic stardards neither would I blatantly cheat to get players. Sorry, that's not the UM I studied at.
OSU can fuck themselves. Football, while a great sport, does not rule academics and what a university stands for.
OSU, Bama, etc all have made it loud and clear what they prefer. How about step into real life outside of football. I am 100% successful in life right now because of UM influence , not some shit college in Columbus. It's possible if it was hell and I went to OSU that I'd be successful, but this is NOT a lie: I had higher academic competition at UM engineering school, better access to better job and a kick ass higher degree to impress employers.
No reason to go down with the garbage institutions to have a shiny football team. I suggest folks enjoy football rather than attach emotionally to it. Michigan football doesn't define good or bad, but what UM does as an institution can reflect upon us. Make the right choice.
Screw OSU. And if homers come in and say hey UM cheats etc well fuck you - if so please show us our coaching controversies, or "loans" (ffs it wasn't a loan), tattoos, "sec" cutlure from Meyer, Lying blatantly to everyone etc. You have no moral or academic argument.
Enjoy your low life in Ohio or bama or whatever. The End.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
Talent gap is huge. That's partly on Harbaugh - he's had more than his share of big misses on the recruiting trail, it's partly on the "high and mighty" Michigan attitude towards student-athletes and recruiting. And a HUGE part of it is OSU being on a 20-year run of insaneness. They are the best overall program of the past 20-years, consistently great and the only thing that keeps most people from recognizing how great they've been is Bama's insane run and string of titles. Bama has not been as good as OSU as long, they just have more titles.
OSU just won 11+ games for the 8th straight year. Michigan has 5 (FIVE) 11+ win seasons, total. In their entire 130+ year history. Yes, the talent gap is huge but unrealistic expectations have played a part too. IF, and it's a big IF, Michigan wins the bowl game it'll make 4 10-win seasons in a 5 year span.. the last time that happened was the early 70's, when Bo won 10+ in 8 of 10 years. Almost 50 years ago. We need to stop pretending Michigan is an elite program.
Yes, I DO want more out of this program than 9/10 wins and perpetually losing to OSU, but that might not be realistic to expect consistent success against OSU. They are on another level and have been for a while. Does it suck, a lot? Yes, it fucking does!
So this is what we have.. a perpetual 9/10 win program that will occasionally beat OSU and maybe win a B1G Title or two in the next decade. Michigan isn't an elite program, never has been, we're a historically 9/10 win team and that's what Harbaugh has us at again.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
Great scene in "Moneyball" where the A's trade Pena because the manager kept playing him.
I wish they could have traded some guys on defense so Brown couldn't have kept playing them.
And I think too much is being made of yardage totals. They don't matter.
Look, if Dobbins is running for 6 yards/carry but your safeties stay deep and prevent big plays, eventually you might get a DL winning a one on one to make it 2nd and 8. Or eventually they get into the red zone where you can more effectively cover faster receivers with less space for them to work. If Dobbins carries 30 times for 220 yards but you're forcing field goals, you have a shot.
4 TDs and 4 Field Goals is 40 points instead of 56.
But again, Don Brown's defense this year in the 3 losses gave up 5 TDs to Wisconsin, 4 to PSU, 8 to OSU. That's 17 touchdowns.
1 field goal attempt, a miss at Wisconsin.
17-1 TDs to Field Goals.
Don Brown is the antithesis of bend-don't-break.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
Army was 3 Tds and no fgs too.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
I don't necessarily agree with this. Talent is a big part, but on defense, scheme and personnel choice, which I think is different than talent, are also huge issues. Our DL is too small and was getting absolutely bullied. We have a lot of talent on the defense, but are still getting destroyed
December 1st, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
Understand your point, but it’s hard to see Metellus and Hudson getting torched out there and blame that totally on scheme.