Hypothetical: Where would UM go if/when it leaves the B1G?
Since it's a slow news day, and we're all just waiting around, I thought it might be fun to speculate on consequences if the naive dimwit commish doesn't wise up.
I seriously doubt UM would leave the bigten before the end of the current TV contracts, but what do you guys think might happen then? Or would some circumstances lead to changes before that?
Personally, I'd like to see a super conference of the best academic schools.
UM, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, UNC, Florida, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, maybe a Purdue and Northwestern so that everyone else can get some free wins. Maybe let OSU and Penn State come along if they beg first. You get the idea.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^
Why would we start a new conference and invite OSU? Fuck that
November 10th, 2023 at 4:18 AM ^
Right? And why add that shit team Louisville? Their fanbase is literally OSU 2.0 lite
November 9th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Independent. Without a doubt. Other than maybe Notre Dame and Texas, there's no school with more organic value than Michigan. Why share that value with anybody else?
Football could schedule 8 home/4 away every year and book anybody they wanted to fit into that schedule.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
I wish this board would get a little thicker skin about the B1G being mean to them. Cooler heads will prevail and the matter will blow over. All this yip-yap about taking our ball and going home just makes us look butt hurt over an issue that we’ll never leave the league over.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
I think it's absolutely worth making a credible threat to leave (which would have drastic implications on future conference revenues) over unfair treatment. I think due to Michigan's status as being one of the moneymakers, we have a good chance of being able to correct their behavior towards us. But it's never bad to keep your options open.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
Counterpoint: They’re absolutely trying to fuck us.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:33 PM ^
So if the reports are true, we had conference members who colluded to sabotage a championship game, got on a phone call that Michigan was excluded from and screamed at the commissioner to basically try and get Harbaugh fired. Which could cause Michigan a shot at a national championship. Etc…
How can Michigan be expected to ever trust those schools won’t try and do this shit again at some point? Damage has been done and bridges have been burned in my opinion.
November 9th, 2023 at 7:13 PM ^
Harbaugh was on the phone call for as long as he wanted to be. The fact of his participation destroys the argument that he wasn't allowed to be on the line.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
MSU makes it a part of their identity to hurt our players. Screw this conference.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:29 PM ^
It's not how you portray it, @Grampy (username checks out, btw).
There was no reason for the Big Ten to insert itself into an ongoing NCAA investigation. More than that, it's utterly unprecedented. And it's quite clearly motivated by rivals within the conference who--the evidence is in print--would rather see Michigan lose than see the conference succeed. Sorry, but that's f--ked up.
And for the conference front office to come after one of their two biggest revenue generators, in unprecedented and improper fashion, at the behest of 12 teams who are getting their money almost exclusively as a result of that revenue generator (and one other)?
That's even more f--ked up.
So, yeah--the PAC-12 just proved that conferences aren't forever. They are marriages of convenience. If it's not working for Michigan any more, Michigan is well within its rights to walk away.
For the history buffs: Michigan walked away from the old Western Conference (remember "Champions of the West?"). Michigan only returned to the restructured and improved Big Ten. Then, as now, there was a lot of upheaval in college athletics. Change is coming; might as well lead, once again. That's what Michigan is: leaders and best.
November 9th, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
The conference leadership participated in a smear campaign against us and wanted to hand out suspensions or fines or whatever without following the conference rules. This is a bush league, mean-spirited, and feeble-minded conference organization. I don't know anything about changing conferences, but at the very least, the B1G needs to clean house and find some way to ensure its leaders know the rules.
November 9th, 2023 at 5:29 PM ^
It’s not about “taking out ball and going home”. The B1G wasn’t “being mean to them”. They are downright abusing trust and accepted agreements between the schools and the conference itself because of a lynch mob from the majority (likely led by one particular team).
November 9th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
The Saudi Football League.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
Independent… though, Michigan isn’t going anywhere
November 9th, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^
Likely, the ACC; though it would be foolish to exclude the formation of a new conference as a possibility. The four incoming PAC schools, e.g., arrive with far more allegiance to available money than to the Big Ten.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:05 PM ^
I don't see us joining another existing conference. What Michigan should do is start laying the groundwork for a new football only super league outside of the control of the NCAA composed of the top programs from across the country, That will take some time, but it will benefit Michigan to be one of the leaders and work with schools from the SEC and ACC who think this is the future of CFB and who want a strong voice in who gets in and who gets left out,
If that league can be successfully launched, that will be our new home for football. If we can't get it off the ground, (unlikely with the amount of money networks would throw at it), then we can stay in the Big Ten if they change their revenue sharing formula to our liking. If they won't, they risk losing not just Michigan, but OSU and the other TV draws.
November 9th, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
This is absolutely the right take. We have learned a quite a few things from this whole signgate situation. Some of those things: we know our conference is at best a lose collection of brands aligned for a TV contract and at worst a bunch of jerks who will do anything to take us down (or both) and we know that the NCAA is a pathetic and inept institution with bizarre and poorly worded rules with inconsistent enforcement. So we start broaching the idea and actively building the necessary support for this. Plus if we are at the ground floor of building it, we will have a greater influence in how the superconference operates.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
we're not leaving the big ten. might as well ask what non-existent nfl minor league our football team will join once the university finally stops participating in the billion-dollar business that is college sports. that ain't happening, either.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:30 PM ^
yes, it's obviously a hypothetical, so fair enough, i guess. i'd only say that not all hypotheticals are created equal.
there are dozens of possible hypotheticals to discuss here. most of them have absolutely no chance of being borne out and so are of limited utility, even as thought exercises. "if it turns out that conor stalions was a critical member of the staff, fully vested, directed, and paid by jim harbaugh (etc.)..." is a hypothetical too. it's an exceedingly silly one, but it's a hypothetical, alright.
November 9th, 2023 at 7:22 PM ^
I disagree that thought experiments are dependent on their likelihood of turning out to be true to be more interesting. Thought experiments are interesting to the extent that they reveal information and thought processes that would remain unknown lacking the thought experiment.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
They aren’t.
The only conference that could make a plausible offer is the SEC.
Michigan is not leaving the B1G.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
Does conference mean anything academically? Would Michigan get more money/ grants/ prestige if Stanford & Cal join the B1G?
I didn’t notice this, from my time at Michigan, but could see some fields (mostly research and super specialties), benefiting by sharing data & resources, but I’d assume that’s irrespective with being affiliated with a conference (like a UM & HBS Professor developing a start-up or doing research together).
November 9th, 2023 at 8:22 PM ^
Yes it does. That’s why the Big Ten is a stickler for AAU membership. The Big Ten was actually founded first with academics in mind and now has an academic counterpart in the Academic Big Ten which used to be the old CIC. You are defined by the company you keep and the Big Ten’s identity is tightly tied to its membership composed of flagship state universities that also are some of the most research-Intensive in the nation and the world. It’s why the Ivy League does not include Rutgers but does include Cornell. No joke, Rutgers was actually considered a candidate for Ivy League as it is very old. But ultimately it’s mission didn’t quite align with what other Ivy members. Cornell is not actually that old and has some colleges that are part of the SUNY system but is more oriented toward hyper selectivity like other Ivies.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
As bitter as we are, and as much as I do think M will leave at their first opportunity - we almost have to go with OSU. The Game is a valuable property. If anything both parties should work on repairing that relationship
But I think if you preserve The Game, you can either make a super league of the best of the Big18 and wait around for some ACC schools eventually, or go independent and play ND annually, OSU annually, and house our other sports...wherever. acc, big east, it doesn't matter too much.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
and that's why you threaten to leave, because you can't have The Game without both teams. It's the biggest rivalry in college football, and Michigan holds all the leverage by threatening to leave thus blowing up a major source of revenue for the conference.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
as much as I do think M will leave at their first opportunity
i don't know how one lands on this. i'm honestly asking, and i swear to god that i'm not trolling - what makes you think that this will actually happen?
please note that i'm not asking why you think we should, i'm asking why you think we will.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
We're not going away. Aim will be to win with cruelty and salt the earth of opposing BIG stadiums and programs for years to come.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
A super conference like this is at least 10 years away, but fuck OSU and MSU. They don’t get to join our party if such a. Conference is created.
In the short term, UM can raise the profile and tv payout of any of the other 3 conferences, and would likely get invites from all 3 if they were in the mood to leave.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
Ultimately, decisions on conference affiliation are driven by one thing and one thing only: money. So unless Michigan is confident that it can make more money elsewhere and that the risks and potential blowback of such a monumental move (we were a founding member of the B1G and have been a member since 1917) don't outweigh the likely benefits, we're not leaving the B1G.
HOWEVER, it would be wise to make the B1G think we're willing to explore our options.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:45 PM ^
(Love your screen name!)
Financial minds could probably do this math better than I can, but--
The $1 billion per year TV deal was to be split 14 ways (TV ponied up more money for the West Coast teams). That comes out to roughly $70 million per team.
Could Michigan exceed more than $70 million annually on a TV deal as an independent? Absolutely, assuming they could schedule quality opponents. Michigan is one of the nation's most-watched football programs. Michigan and Ohio State fueled the Big Ten media rights deal, full stop.
By comparison, Notre Dame is seeking $65 to $75 million annually for its next TV deal--and, at this point, Notre Dame doesn't draw nearly the viewership that Michigan does. Looking back at the list of the top-10 most-watched college football games in 2022 from the previous link, Notre Dame only made the list for its game against ... Ohio State. Michigan makes the list twice, and its game against Purdue exceeded the viewership for OSU-ND. (The Game tops the list.)
Change is coming to college football with revenue sharing and more conference realignment. Michigan might as well shop around; the rest of the Big Ten conference is dead weight.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
Not going anywhere, thumbing our nose at the B1G and joining the SEC/ACC/PAC2/whatever is silly fanfic wishcasting.
At some point down the road there will be additional realignment. It's pretty much inevitable, especially since the seemingly endless pool of TV money is likely to gradually dry up. Whenever that happens -- i.e. whenever TV deals are up or conference grants of rights are -- teams will move.
What happens here might make Michigan slightly more likely to move, but for every reason (other than money) to do so there are 20 against moving. Money is about the only thing that in reality might be enough to result in a change.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:23 PM ^
Including OSU on your list of "the best academic schools" instantly kills the list's credibility.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^
NFC North
November 9th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
UEFA Champions Leauge
November 9th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
ACC!
ACC!
ACC!
November 9th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
Hard pass on Purdue and OSU. GT, Stanford, Cal are not very exciting for sports. Hardly feels like a super conference really.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^
Start a new conference and call it the BiggerTen.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
I'd either look to the ACC or try to start a new league that does not include whatever asswipe programs were behind this entire charade.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
Would love to go to the ACC. Great recruiting state in Florida.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
They won't, but for the sake of playing along it has to be the SEC. Football is king and they're the conference that keeps turning out national-champions so go and play the best week in and week out (aside from the yearly obligated FCS game in mid November).
November 9th, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
An unintended consequence in osu's dirty little game may turn out to be a stronger UofM, a galvanized support/lovefest for Harbaugh, both leading to a lengthy contract extension and longer reign atop the league. It may very well also lead to Day's demise, and that may ripple to other coaches as well, once all the objective evidence is reviewed. If all this comes to pass, UM absolutely needs to stay in the B1G. My own opinion is UM only leaves the B1G if the full thermonuclear game takes place. The current direction sure seems to lead to the good guys coming out of this stronger than ever.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^
ACC would be the best fit. I would personally prefer the SEC but we do not fit it culturally or geographically like some others said.
I didn't read through all of the comments, but one big cultural reason we couldn't go to the SEC is the north vs south mentality that still exists in the south. It would be the rest of the SEC vs Michigan, which is happening now in the B1G. No point jumping from the frying pan into the fire or cutting our noses off to spite our faces.
That said, ACC would be the best conference. No where else makes sense outside the B1G
November 9th, 2023 at 4:03 PM ^
You could leave Bible Belt tribalism out of it. Say we joined the SEC. Michigan is still coached by Harbaugh. Do you think we'd last a single year before every single program in the conference is colluding to get rid of him again?
November 9th, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^
That's why I said going to the SEC would be be us vs them (the entire conference)
November 9th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
Conference USA
November 9th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
Two weeks ago I would never have thought I'd say this, but.. I am so over this stupid and embarrassing conference now. It hasn't won a basketball title since... well, Mateen Cleeves? Really? Two-thirds of the football teams haven't had good QBs or played good offense for... over a decade. And it's clearly full of a bunch of delusional, self-indulgent hypocrits who don't realize which mega-popular school butters their bread. Fuck them all.
Onto the ACC. Bring ND full-time, make it our last game of the season. See if USC and UCLA can declare a breach b/c the TV networks will drop their payments to B1G when UM leaves. If there's room for Oregon and Washington, that's fine.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
I would be extremely surprised if M were to overtly even consider a move. I am guessing B1G will have a Godfather-style meeting of the families, with a Seinfeld-style airing of grievances. Differences will be settled and peace, even if not all sunshine and rainbows, will be hammered out. Too much money at stake to gamble on a move.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
Tony's glass house? Rest there on the way to super conference discussions with Fox/CBS. Set definitive league rules so there is non-nebulous fairness using modern technology.